Joe_'s '10 Thread

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Just an archive to help me keep track of my musings.

I'll add my college football plays in here as well. I've compiled a thorough set of indices on most of the teams for the bulk of opening weekend as well. I'm hoping to again reach, and go over the $15,000-mark this season

Good luck to all.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

8/8/2010: Dallas [1st-half; +1.5 / -110] (3-units)

Link, for my "rationale": http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...-analysis.html

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Damn, it's likely that there will be a big play coming up with the 'Niners at the Colts on the 15th.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

8/12/2010: New Orleans [Moneyline / +110] (3-units)]

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Caveat: Yes, it's pre-season, and, as stated, my reasoning for any particular match-up in the pre-season may very well be pre-empted in a variety of ways.

Selections are fairly worthless without rationale, so:

• It may prove to be non-factor, but, from the 15-minutes-or-so of the video I've seen of Chase Daniel with Sean Payton, it seems that he wants him to be a full-go in this game, being an analog for nearly everything that's expected of Drew Brees, game-time. Yeah, most would expect all back-ups (you know, mostly those that aren't in competition with Patrick Ramsey nonetheless) to be able to meet this expectation, but this may differ with this opportunity having the joint practices preceding this game.
• I have a feeling that there will be more standard, "generic" 4-man rushes out of New England's Okie fronts to see how their rotations of Wilfork/Wright/Warren/Lewis/Pryor can apply pressure in slanting, 1-gap priorities, should this scenario be more necessitated later in the season if their perimeter rushers fail to be of standard efficiency when even thinking in the broadest terms of an odd front.
• When these hypothetical, prioritzed situations occur, I feel that the reserve rotation of New Orleans' offensive line will fair well, and stymie this veritable experiment; Zach Strief, Brandon Carter, Matt Tennant, and Charles Brown, in my opinion, will fare quite well.
• Even though it may pertain to about 8-minutes of actual game-time, Wes Welker may be held out of action on principle.
• Brandon Tate could be significant deep-threat, but I have a feeling Gregg Williams will have an acute scrutiny upon his secondary, feeling out the tremendous depth/competition that he has at his disposal (having Usama Young as the THIRD SAFETY on this squad).
• I don't know if Rod Harper will see significant time later in the game, if any, but Dave Thomas & Jimmy Graham could likely be in the game for 30-minutes or more to gauge their chemistry together in a version of the base offense.
• Gregg Williams may be blitzing more-so with his reserves to estimate, & account for the horrid gap-control displayed by his front-four rotations last season.
• Adrian Arrington is beyond being on the cusp, so he may play for two quarters or more as if he were a cornered, animal.
• Brian Hoyer has a great command of the offense, but I'm anticipating the possibility of a beyond-attrocious debut by Zac Robinson by what I've read & seen.
• O.K., I'm talking about a starter here, but Matt Light, at this point of his career output, should probably not be a starting left tackle.
• Patrick Chung is one of my favorite players in the League, but I think he's going to be targeted by Belichick, being left alone (more than he should) on the New Orleans' interior-receiving-corps./backfield to see how his man-to-man abilities have actually improved beyond what's been touted in camp.

Blah, blah, blah --- yeah, I know, but I still like the "value" in the game.

Good luck to all.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

8/14/2010: Miami [-3 / -120] (10-units)

• Raheem Morris demoted Jim Bates because, as I saw it from a sample set of 4 games in late-October to mid-November, the defense was really not closing their containment when the oppossing running game was "forced" back to weak side, and I really think this had to do with too many hands controlling the gameplan. Morris did improve the defense's efficiency, but Tampa was still just ROCKED at the point, again and again.
• Gerald McCoy and Brian Price, who has appeared slow to pick up his priorities getting washed inside often across his face, will not be the immediate answers in fixing this rush defense IMO.
• Tim Crowder and Dre Moore have outstanding triangle numbers, but seem so disinterested. It's looked like walk-throughs at times when I've watched them.
• Roy Miller and "Styelz" White may prove to be the best on the Tampa front in this match-up.
• Myron Lewis should get at least a solid half in.
• Tony McDaniel, if given the chance, should make some splash plays.
• Randy Starks is not a guy that most would like to draw priority against.
• Mike Nolan could prove to be BEST addition made by any team made during the off-season. His only substantial challenge, with the talent at hand, will be to develop the youth contending at free-safety.
• Ryan Grice-Mullen may be able to raise a few eyebrows as did Devone Bess back in '08.
• Mike Williams and Arrellious Benn look as if they consider a route-tree irrelevant, as they should surely just run a '9' every play and score, even though they really didn't do much of that in college even when they played (alright, though, I'll give 'em mulligans for Juice Williams and, I guess, not wanting to play football anymore because Doug Marrone was too mean).
• Josh Freeman is coddled so damn much by Morris; it may lead to more than one unceremonious ousting in a few years.
• Patrick Cobbs, and then Lex Hilliard in the 2nd-half --- strap both buckles up, Buccos.
• Paul Soliai: It looks like you've figured it out.
• Cameron Wake, if on the strong-side, should have Jeremy Trueblood chomping at the bit to once again punch those he cannot block.
• Nolan-favorite, Marques Douglas, and Charles Grant will get work inside.
• I'm really interested to see Ikaika Ilama-Francis play standing up behind Koa Misi
• The same goes for Tim Dobbins in package work.
• Jason Allen might just be finally saving his career.
• If things go as expected, three-to-four offensive lineman will get some time along the front at different positions, as Sparano is above all else, proud of this unit and its flexibility, being one of the very best in the League; Garner, Grove, & Incognito as projected reserves at this time constitute a log-jam of talent.

Good luck.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Caveat: Yes, it's pre-season, and, as stated, my reasoning for any particular match-up in the pre-season may very well be pre-empted in a variety of ways.

Selections are fairly worthless without rationale, so:

• It may prove to be non-factor, but, from the 15-minutes-or-so of the video I've seen of Chase Daniel with Sean Payton, it seems that he wants him to be a full-go in this game, being an analog for nearly everything that's expected of Drew Brees, game-time. Yeah, most would expect all back-ups (you know, mostly those that aren't in competition with Patrick Ramsey nonetheless) to be able to meet this expectation, but this may differ with this opportunity having the joint practices preceding this game.
• I have a feeling that there will be more standard, "generic" 4-man rushes out of New England's Okie fronts to see how their rotations of Wilfork/Wright/Warren/Lewis/Pryor can apply pressure in slanting, 1-gap priorities, should this scenario be more necessitated later in the season if their perimeter rushers fail to be of standard efficiency when even thinking in the broadest terms of an odd front.
• When these hypothetical, prioritzed situations occur, I feel that the reserve rotation of New Orleans' offensive line will fair well, and stymie this veritable experiment; Zach Strief, Brandon Carter, Matt Tennant, and Charles Brown, in my opinion, will fare quite well.
• Even though it may pertain to about 8-minutes of actual game-time, Wes Welker may be held out of action on principle.
• Brandon Tate could be significant deep-threat, but I have a feeling Gregg Williams will have an acute scrutiny upon his secondary, feeling out the tremendous depth/competition that he has at his disposal (having Usama Young as the THIRD SAFETY on this squad).
• I don't know if Rod Harper will see significant time later in the game, if any, but Dave Thomas & Jimmy Graham could likely be in the game for 30-minutes or more to gauge their chemistry together in a version of the base offense.
• Gregg Williams may be blitzing more-so with his reserves to estimate, & account for the horrid gap-control displayed by his front-four rotations last season.
• Adrian Arrington is beyond being on the cusp, so he may play for two quarters or more as if he were a cornered, animal.
• Brian Hoyer has a great command of the offense, but I'm anticipating the possibility of a beyond-attrocious debut by Zac Robinson by what I've read & seen.
• O.K., I'm talking about a starter here, but Matt Light, at this point of his career output, should probably not be a starting left tackle.
• Patrick Chung is one of my favorite players in the League, but I think he's going to be targeted by Belichick, being left alone (more than he should) on the New Orleans' interior-receiving-corps./backfield to see how his man-to-man abilities have actually improved beyond what's been touted in camp.

Blah, blah, blah --- yeah, I know, but I still like the "value" in the game.

Good luck to all.

Oh well. That's how it goes; the backside drag route was lost when Jimmy Graham (I think) fell down. Chase Daniel has decent mobility, but when a naked sprint bootleg goes without a passing option, well, I hope you have Michael Vick in Madden '04.

So, no game-winning score, and then New England made a really nice call on the bubble screen on third-&-long to get into position to get the game-winning kick.

Good game.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Additionally, concerning the Miami-Tampa game, Pat White was given a good majority of the snaps on Thursday in what was likely an inclusive full-playbook run-through. Per these blog reports, it seems like Tyler Thigpen is legitimately threatening White as unlikely as that sounds. Judging him just based on his merit, I think Pat White could have a huge game tonight.

We'll see.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Fvck, haven't been up-to-date here with my plays; too busy.

Anyway, tonight:

8/22/2010: Minnesota/San Francisco [1st-half Under 17.5 / -110] (5-units)

[Jakoby87]

Gl tonight I hope you hit your under first half as long as game goes over in the second GL.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

8/26/2010: Indianapolis/Green Bay [1st-half OVER 24.5 / -110] (10-units)

[Joe_Shabadoo]

8/26/2010: Indianapolis/Green Bay [1st-half OVER 23.5 / -110] (10-units)

• After watching 4 Packer games in the last 2 pre-seasons it seems that Mike McCarthy really puts an onus on his offense committing to a rather complete play selection; the same can't be said for Dom Capers. His specific focus, mostly, has been on the D-line accomplishing what he wants with his changing of gap responsibilites play-to-play.
• Blitzing and stunting, moreso for the former, is dialed down to nearly nil, and it appears that Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk could be (relatively) healthy scratches along with the convalescing Clay Matthews.
• I'm still trying to find at least few reliable sources that all echo the same lead, but, it seems that Charles Woodson may also be in his warm-ups.
• Per a number of reports, Sam Shields will be of primary focus as the starting nickle back. I reason that fan-whipping-boy Jarret Bush will see a good amount of time early on along with Pat Lee. I don't know, if that was a regular season scenario --- in my opinion: no good. The dime depth will really be tested here.
• The Packer offense is in mid-season form right now based on the film from the last two weeks, and one should expect to see Jordy Nelson really make a push to displace James Jones as the 3rd receiver yet again. In my opinion, Nelson could be the #2 guy for a good number of teams --- dude's a gamer.
• Really? Chad Clifton & Mark Tauscher are healthy? Well, yeah, it's readily apparent. Albeit, it's August, but, for now, they're channeling 2003.
• Josh Sitton: It's STILL surprising how damned good he's performed in the last calendar year.
• Anthony Gonzalez should get a prolonged look on Thursday to re-examine where he's at.
• Garcon may be held back, as will Dallas Clark, but Jacob Tamme has done well in spot-duty, fulfilling, somewhat, what's prioritized by the TE in the Indy offense.
• Peyton Manning should have cookie-cutter looks up front to deal with, and should his adhere to his norm, perhaps playing into just a bit of the 3rd-quarter.

I was really leaning on Green Bay (-2.5) in the 1st-half, but I can envision the Colt offense matching each blow by Rodgers & Co. Peyton may largely push Clyde Christensen aside, looking to get his offense up to par with the standard no matter who's playing, nor what date it may be.

I got a tempered line at the Cal-Neva @ 23.5, so that's a plus.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

8/28/2010: New Orleans [-3 / -120] (10 units)

[Joe_Shabadoo]

8/26/2010: Indianapolis/Green Bay [1st-half OVER 23.5 / -110] (11-units)

Edit: I placed 11 units to win an even-grand on the 1st-half.

Good luck to all.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Nice.

2 more touchdowns by the end of the 1st-quarter seems doable.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Cash. That. Shit.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

8/8/2010: Dallas [1st-half; +1.5 / -110] (3-units)

WIN

8/12/2010: New Orleans [Moneyline / +110] (3-units)]

LOSS

8/14/2010: Miami [-3 / -120] (10-units)

PUSH

8/22/2010: Minnesota/San Francisco [1st-half Under 17.5 / -110] (5-units)

WIN

8/26/2010: Indianapolis/Green Bay [1st-half OVER 24.5 / -110] (10-units)

WIN

YTD: +15 units

[Joe_Shabadoo]

8/28/2010: New Orleans [-3 / -120] (10 units)

WIN

YTD: +25 units

After Sunday I'll have more than wanted to have a initial capital for the beginning season, albeit, wagering more than I should have on a few games here & there that were documented, as well as on games that were not logged here.


8/28/2008: San Francisco/Oakland [1st-half UNDER 17.5 / -110] (5-units)

8/29/2010: Pittsburgh [-2 / -110] (5-units)

[NFLBEST]

good luck tomorrow bro

[Joe_Shabadoo]

8/28/2008: San Francisco/Oakland [1st-half UNDER 17.5 / -110] (5-units)

• Mario Henderson, for how much physical talent he has: It's just baffling how bad he can be in stretches. Against specimens on the edge he can hold his own at times, but, against a large, base end that will easily outwork him on everyplay, in everway, well, I think Justin Smith will dominate as usual.
• Even if Aubrayo Franklin is not in the line-up tomorrow, Ricky Jean-Francois has played the nose with an unlikely aplomb. Regardless of who's playing I feel that they'll have a field day with Jared Veldeer, a 6'8'' rookie center slide-in, who does not possess the fuctional strength, nor the real athleticism IMO to avoid bending at his waist to handle what he'll have deal with against San Francisco. Exchange errors?
• Louis Murphy and Zach Miller will, again, should be the only reliable targets when the starters are in.
• Darren McFadden looks to be a somewhat healthy scratch.
• Darrius Heyward-Bey: dude, c'mon.
• LaMarr Houston has been outstanding at strongside-end as well as at tackle. I think he's going to really make Anthony Davis look lost.
• Richard Seymour will be out, but Bryant has filled in well with what's been expected of him, protecting Matt Shaughnessy.
• Tommy Kelley looks like, for the time being, that he's earing that contract.
• Although I think the group, as a whole, is largely playing out of position, the Raider linebackers have been playing surprisingly well in coverage. Rolando McClain has been steady, but has overpursued just a bit. Trevor Scott and Kamerion Wimbley have been solid going down hill, and in setting the edge.
• I expect a significant turn-around later in the season, but even with the new bucks in the unit, it's hard to get over how much 'Frisco runners were stopped at the LOS or in the backfield last season.
• Michael Crabtree will see action, but according to reports, it may not exceed past the 1st-quarter.
• Frank Gore will see a bit of action, but it's been intimated that he could be held back more than most would expect in this spot.
• Diyral Briggs and Travis LaBoy will be fighting tooth-&-nail for the projected 4th-&-last OLB spot, and have both performed well so far.
• I expect to see a few more splash play by Navarro Bowman at the end of the half.
• Manny Lawson carries the mass he's put on well, and could really take advantage of this contract year.
• Lastly, it doesn't hurt to have the two best punters in the league, nor does it having Sea Bass on kickoffs.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Far be it from me to try & sneak in some hidden credence with a mentioning of profits/plays not logged here, but out of the 11 plays that I've made since August 8th I've pulled $6,880 in the black. I project that my results will speak for themselves when all is said & done.

I'm SO fvcking stoked for the regular season. Start-up capital is reassuring when one's really trying to stick to a money management system. Yeah, well, let's see how long I can remain disciplined.

Once again, good luck to all of you other football nerds.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Now, the impetus for this:



--- is some glorious failure of the education system who calls everyone pu$$ay 'tards who don't bet real money, because, somehow they're jealous of someone they weren't aware of until he posted a reminder about his lock on Kansas City yesterday -- when they most assuredly lost, shortly afterward.

This play was changed from (-3 / -120) [full-game] when I went to the book after I viewed the expected discrepancy between the 1st-half and full-game wager. Upon confirmation that Chase Daniel would not see much time, if any, after his performance in the last two weeks, I went for the projected value here, as I calcualted a 1.4 difference in 1st-half possessions between New Orleans & San Diego.

As one can see now, though, I have a new phone, so I'll be able to update when I'm out and about on gameday(s).

[Joe_Shabadoo]

I will have my finalized "full-go" selections as always, but I'll appease everyone's now-favorite keyboard sociopath by placing a cursory pick on each & every game when Week 1 of NCAAF/NFL comes around in just a few days.

We'll see how long he'll last, and, additionally, how many more aliases he can come up with.

[zacharyj53]

Joe I don't know if you are looking to add to your bet but it is up to 19 now at 5dimes for the 1h of the SF/Okl game.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

NFL Point Spreads Preseason, Week 3 - Preseason
Week Three NFL Football Point Spread
NFL Spreads 8/28 - 8/29, 2010 Date & TimeFavoriteSpreadUnderdog8/28 5:00 ETAt Detroit-2.5Cleveland8/28 6:30 ETCincinnati-3At Buffalo8/28 7:30 ETJacksonville-3At Tampa Bay8/28 7:30 ETAt Baltimore-4NY Giants8/28 8:00 ETAt Houston-5.5Dallas8/28 8:00 ETAt Minnesota-5.5Seattle8/28 8:00 ETAt Carolina-3Tennessee8/28 8:30 ETAt Chicago-4Arizona8/28 9:00 ETAt Oakland-1.5San Francisco8/29 8:00 ETPittsburgh-2At Denver

[sprekderulo]

Sparky derulo

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Joe I don't know if you are looking to add to your bet but it is up to 19 now at 5dimes for the 1h of the SF/Okl game.

Oh, I know. I got that 17.5 line off of Sportsbook.com last night just to see what it'd be, as the books that I normally go to don't have 1st-half lines up until the day of the game.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Sparky, yes.

O.K.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

San Francisco/Oakland [1st-half UNDER 17.5 / -110] (5-units)

San Francisco/Oakland [1st-half UNDER 19.5 / -110] (5.5 units)

And expectedly, I got 19.5 at the Cal-Neva; Sportsbooks.com seems to always be a bit off early on.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Oh, well.

2nd-half: Oakland [2nd-half; -1.5 / -110] (6 units)

[Joe_Shabadoo]

San Francisco/Oakland [1st-half UNDER 19.5 / -110] (5.5 units)

LOSS

Oh, well. 2nd-half: Oakland [2nd-half; -1.5 / -110] (6 units)

LOSS

Just one of those days. It was a somewhat entertaining game though, & I'm working out some new software to see if the games I watched on ATDHE.net today were recorded successfully onto my hard drive.

YTD: 3-3-1 (+ $1,350)

[Joe_Shabadoo]

8/29/2010: Pittsburgh [-2 / -110] ( 22 units)

Now, my "big" play. I've been looking forward to this one for a bit now.

Write-up to come tomorrow after my fantasy football draft.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

8/29/2010: Pittsburgh [-2 / -110] (22 units)

• The older that I get, the less that I care, really at all, for any one team. I mean, I've been a Steeler fan since I was a kid, during Chuck's last year of coaching back in '91. I know a lot about football and, especially, of Pittsburgh, but I guess one would call it purely trivial if it wasn't able to be of good use. That being said, I'll bet against the Steelers every time if I stand to profit.
• The eternal axiom with this team has been the problems with the offensive line; it seems that investing in premium talent up front has been a laughable notion for nearly a decade. Enter: Pouncey. Wow, dude's just nearly 21, and he looks to be Dermontti Dawson incarnate --- physically. His rapport with Casey Hampton has really helped Pouncey learn how to reach the shoulder of the large sea mammals that he'll be seeing in his upcoming career.
• From what I've read, Tony Hills could get a longer look in the RT competition, which could be great considering that Flozell has looked inebriated when kick-stepping.
• Jamal Williams, Justin Bannan, Jarvis Green: The to-do list for a team that is horribly deficient in run defense. I guess the strange thing is, though, from what I've seen so far is that they have not played well. It's understood that Elvis Dumervil is gone, but just the preliminary thought of putting Bannan on the strong side, Green over the left tackle and Williams cocked over the nose would surely shore up any problems up front automatically.
• David Johnson is a fvcking man-&-a-half. He might not be able to make a catch over his shoulder --- ever --- but I think he could Robert Ayers and Jarvis Moss in trouble early with their coaching staff, telling them to get their helmets buckled and just fvcking play.
• Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders have been performing splendidly, and think this is the game where Brown could finally break out on return duty.
• Isacc Redman is "The Most Interesting Running-Back In The World".
• Dennis Dixon has netted a large amount of money for me in 4 games of pre-season work, and in last year's contest at Baltimore. Seriously, having his talent on the field for long stretches against a deplenished depth chart constitutes massive value. He's come through with many-a-long scoring drive. Tomlin will have him come in after Big Rape for at least a half of work himself --- and maybe more.
• Knowshon Moreno looks to have Correll Buckhalter and LenDale White join him looking on from the sidelines; Justin Fargas looks stiff.
• Eric Decker could have a good night, but I can see Eddie Royal continuing to be largely out of focus.
• Again, Ryan Clark's sickle-cell anemia will keep him out of Denver, but now the signing of Will Allen should demonstrate the sagacity of the move.
• I'm really interested to see Keenan Lewis finally get the starting nod with Bryant McFadden out, as well as seeing Crezdon Butler keep the competitive firing going with Burnett/Gay.
• Stevenson Sylvester has really exemplified what Tomlin said he wanted in his defense back in March of '07: "Runners & Hitters". Just like he had done for 3 year at Utah, he's making plays with his ability to blitz, redirecting lineman away from his chest deftly.
• The shuffling of the left side of Denver's O-line throughout the game will not lend itself to succes, IMO.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

An additional factor here is that based on the reps given to, and the considerations taken for Jamal Williams so far by the coaching staff, it appears that, prudently, his knees are being saved for the regualr season.

Look for Williams to get perhaps 2 series tonight at most. Denver could deviate from their protocol so far, but it seems unlikely.

Also, I think Debo and Brett Keisel will have a field day if DeBaptiste is left at LT; Zane Beadles may (but probably should) get the majority of the snaps here, as he would make that 6th-7th spot on the O-line that much more valuable.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

YTD: -$850.00 [3-4-1]



Well, damn that was just gross. When Emmanuel Sanders is likely not running the correct route upon his option read, and when both Dixon & Leftwich each did not read the mishap, it is not good at all --- over a 20-point swing in the differential on a number of red-zone/inside-the-40 plays & your team is fvcked. But, I can see why the quarterbacks were slinging it on those downs because (as I should have reminded my self when making the wager) it is preseason, and it was needed to see if they could perform in those situations later on if necessary.

That's what I get for being greedy, going for one last big splash to boost my start-up for the next week of openers.

$850.00 in the red so far documented here, and now I've lost the $3,000 (that I made on the Packers/Colts 1st-half OVER & Saints play that I posted above) from the $6,880 made since Hall of Fame Game weekend.

For the purposes of college football and the N.F.L. opening up, I will document my remaining allotment, as that will determine how much I'm responsibly willing to risk for the rest of the season.

$3,530.00



Here we go guys: Live bullets.

Good luck.