The Knuckleballers Computer Based System Tracking Thread

TheKnuckleballer · 10-04-09, 02:45 PM

Week 4 Sunday Picks (10/4/2009)

Overall (0-0)
Top Plays (0-0)
Regular Plays (0-0)

Week 4 in the NFL season has finally rolled around and I now have enough data to start posting my NFL system plays. It is importatnt to remember that this is a marathon not a sprint as you follow my picks. This system is designed for long term success to not to guarantee 80% winning percentages week end and week out. Over the long haul it will win more than it loses. GL and enjoy this afternoons picks!!! Feedback is welcome.

**Top Plays** (2 Units)
Broncos +3

*Regular Plays* (1 Unit)
Jets +7.5
Chargers +6

(Cheers to a solid NFL Season!!!)

mikey360 · 10-04-09, 03:06 PM

Sounds good, i'll be sure to keep an eye on this thread. do you have any stats on how your system went over any previous seasons?

TheKnuckleballer · 10-05-09, 06:28 PM

Overall (1-2) -.2 Units
Top Plays (1-0) +2 Units
Regular Plays (0-2) -2.2 Units

**Top Plays** (2 Units)
Broncos +3 Win +2 Units

*Regular Plays* (1 Unit)
Jets +7.5 Loss -1.1 Units
Chargers +6 Loss -1.1 Units

Above are yesterdays picks. I hope to get in the black tonight with one final Week 4 NFL pick. Below is my last pick for the week, and I feel very confident that this regular play will come through for us. Remember that this is a marathon not a sprint. GL and enjoy tonights game!!!

*Regular Plays* (1 Unit)
Packers +4.5

TheKnuckleballer · 10-06-09, 05:32 PM

Overall (1-3) -1.3 Units
Top Plays (1-0) +2 Units
Regular Plays (0-3) -3.3 Units

**Top Plays** (2 Units)
Broncos +3 Win +2 Units

*Regular Plays* (1 Unit)
Jets +7.5 Loss -1.1 Units
Chargers +6 Loss -1.1 Units
Packers +4.5 Loss -1.1 Units

Terrible NFL and College weekend filled w/ nothing but dissapointment. Fortunately it's a long season, and I don't expect to see many more weeks like this one. GL to all!!!

Sports Cruncher · 10-06-09, 06:20 PM

Always interested to see how a fellow stats based handicapper fairs. Denver was also one of my top side picks of this past week. GL from here on out.

TheKnuckleballer · 10-11-09, 09:17 AM

Overall (1-3) -1.3 Units
Top Plays (1-0) +2 Units
Regular Plays (0-3) -3.3 Units

Today's card is very tricky. Huge spreads are tough to navigate in the NFL. My system has one top play and 3 regular plays for the early games. I know that it hasn't been pretty lately, but this is a marathon not a sprint. GL and enjoy today's winners!!!

**Top Plays** (2 Units)
Redskins +4

*Regular Plays* (1 Unit)
Lions +10.5
Raiders +15.5
Bucs +15.5

(GL Today!!!)

TheKnuckleballer · 10-11-09, 01:27 PM

I have three late afternoon games to add to the card. Typically, I don't have this many picks, but I really feel like today's card is full of opportunity. I love the Broncos today. The Patriots are overated this year and the public is pounding them in this game. It is obvious that the betting public believes that the Broncos are overated, but I disagree. I look for the Broncos to win this game with solid defensive play. Look for the Broncos to force a lot of 3rd Down plays and get the Patriots off the field. GL and enjoy the winners!!!

**Top Plays** (2 Units)
Broncos +3
Texans +5.5

*Regular Plays* (1 Unit)
49ers -1

TheKnuckleballer · 10-12-09, 12:22 AM

Overall (4-7) -1.8 Units
Top Plays (3-1) +3.8 Units
Regular Plays (1-6) -5.6 Units

Today, was an up and down day in the NFL w/ some close calls and missed opportunities. The Texans game was about as close as it gets to a win. That game goes to OT, and we have a high probability of covering. I have looked at the Monday night game from many angles, and I have what I believe to be the best pick of the season thus far. The line opened at +1 for the Dolphins. There was limited line movement either way early in the week meaning that the "Sharps" were likely not pounding the Jets. Then, as the week progressed and we moved into this morning the line started to jump around in favor of the Jets, moving to -3 at many books. Yet, despite the jump several books notorious for taking "Sharp" money are holding strong at '+1. This combined w/ some statistical advantages makes this a Top Play for me. I have Miami winning the game outright. Miami has converted slightly more than 50% of their 3rd down attempts, as opposed to the Jets who have converted just 35% of their 3rd down attempts. Also, Miami's defense is allowing just 2.94 YPR, which should make it difficult for the Jets to rely on Thomas Jones and Leon Washington to set the pace early and allow Mark Sanchez to settle into a rhythm. My one concern is Miami's inability to defend the pass early in the season, allowing an average of 8.4 YPA. If Sanchez gets hot and stays hot, which I don't predict will happen, there may be reason for concern. GL and enjoy the WINNER!!!

**Top Play** (2 Units)
Dolphins +3

accuscoresucks · 10-12-09, 12:59 AM

looks like you have educated yourself on the basics thats more than most can say,great feedback and knowlegable

one common mistake i see you are making is that ALL bets are created equal no-matter how preceived of an egde might be given,your wager % is a little of kilter
but great job bro keep it up

TheKnuckleballer · 10-18-09, 01:19 AM

Overall (5-7) +.2 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (0-0)
**2 Unit Plays** (4-1) +5.8 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (1-6) -5.6 Units

Heeding Accuscoresuck's advice, I am going to move to a unit based system that allows me the flexibility to bet more than 2 Units on my strongest plays. Thus, I will be moving to a 1 to 5 Unit system. This means that for recordkeeping purposes my Regular Plays will be recorded as 1 Unit Picks and my Top Plays will be recorded as 2 Unit Picks. Going forward this will allow me to better exploit lines that are way off. Don't expect to see many 3, 4, and 5 Unit Plays, but I will have the option if an opportunity presents itself.

After analyzing tomorrow's card, it is obvious that there is very little value in most of the lines. In fact, I only have 3 NFL plays. I have one 3 Unit Pick and two 1 Unit Picks. I feel very confident in each of my plays, and I hope tomorrow ends well. Fortunately, Monday looks like it may shape up to be another Big Winner!! GL and enjoy!!!

***3 Unit Pick***
Texans +5.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Cardinals/Seahawks Under 47
Bears/Falcons Under 46

TheKnuckleballer · 10-18-09, 10:55 PM

Today (3-0) +5 Units
Overall (8-7) +5.2 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (1-0) +3 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (4-1) +5.8 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (3-6) -3.6 Units

Today was a big day. A small card full of winners puts us in a great position to capitalize on tomorrow's Monday Night matchup. I have been on Denver for two weeks now and tomorrow will be no different. Until the public and the Linesmakers start to believe in this team, I will continue to capitalize on these bad lines. I have this line capped at -7 for the Broncos with the total at 35. My power ratings have Denver as the top defensive team in the NFL with San Diego as the 26th ranked defensive team in the NFL. On the offensive side of the ball, I have San Diego as the 10th ranked offensive team and Denver as the
24th ranked offensive team. Denver's inability to put up many points and the fact that they only convert 38.1% of their 3rd Downs accounts for much of this rating. Look for Denver to improve their 3rd Down Percentage tomorrow, because the Chargers are currently having trouble getting off the field on 3rd Down (allowing 49% 3rd Down Conversions). The Chargers are also allowing an average of 25.5 PPG. This may be the last good opportunity to take Denver for a while, because the lines are certain to adjust soon. GL and enjoy the Monday Night Winners!!!

Predicted Monday Night Score:
Denver 21 - Chargers 14

**2 Unit Play**
Broncos +3.5

*1 Unit Play*
Broncos/Chargers Under 44

TheKnuckleballer · 10-24-09, 11:36 PM

Last Week (4-1) +5.9 Units
Overall (9-8) +6.1 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (1-0) +3 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (5-1) +7.8 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (3-7) -4.7 Units

Last week was a great week. I like this weeks card as well. I have 50% of tomorrow's dogs covering. I believe some of these lines are very skewed due to some above average performances in recent weeks by teams such as the Patriots and Giants. My top play will be a shocker to most. I have the Bills as my ***3 Unit Pick*** for tomorrow. Way too many points for a team w/ an unreliable QB to cover. The Bills have weapons, and I think tomorrow is when they decide to use them. Look for the Bills to pull the upset tomorrow (and I use that term lightly with a couple of 2 win teams playing one another). I also like the 49ers to rip Houston on the ground tomorrow w/ the probable return of Gore to the lineup. The 49ers have averaged 4.21 YPR, while the Texans have given up 4.86 YPR this season. Gore could go big tomorrow, so for the fantasy players look to put him in the lineup. GL and enjoy the games!!!

***3 Unit Pick***
Bills +7

**2 Unit Picks**
49ers +3
Bucs +14.5
Cardinals +7

*1 Unit Picks*
Vikings +6
Falcons +4.5

Karate · 10-26-09, 06:07 PM

this is system is looking great so far except those 1 unit plays but the 2 and threes are off the hook!

EDIT: anything for tonight?

TheKnuckleballer · 10-26-09, 06:58 PM

Yesterday (2-3-1) +.4 Units
Overall (11-11-1) +6.5 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (2-0) +6 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (6-2-1) +7.4 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (3-9) -6.9 Units

Some serious line movement has opened up a small opportunity on the Redskins. I have this game capped at 20-14 Eagles over the Redskins. In my opninion, the opening line on this game was correct (Eagles -5). Also, I like the total in this game as well. I have the total at 33.5. GL and enjoy tonights 1 Unit Winners!!!

*1 Unit Picks*
Redskins +9
Eagles/Redskins Under 38

TheKnuckleballer · 11-01-09, 12:03 PM

Overall (11-13-1) +4.3 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (2-0) +6 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (6-2-1) +7.4 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (3-11) -9.1 Units

Last week was a small set back after missing both 1 Unit picks on Monday Night. My analysis was correct on the game, but in the end turnovers prevailed and the Redskins failed to cover and the game went over the total. Today is an ugly card. When I look at my picks it makes me a little sick at my stomach. This has been a year of little parody in the NFL. I have three 2 Unit Picks and three 1 Unit Picks. My favorite pick is the 49ers, but nothing there to warrant any more than a 2 Unit Pick. The 49ers have averaged 4.07 YPR, while the Colts have allowed 4.27 YPR. Look for Gore to have a big day on the turf today. The Colts are banged up and Manning may be grasping for straws if Wayne is unable to play today. I have the game capped at Colts -6. The line is inflated, because the public loves to pound the Colts at home despite an inflated line. That being said the Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games at home as a favorite of 10.5+ points. GL and enjoy todays picks!! I have a BIG PLAY on deck for Monday Night Football, so check back late today!!!

**2 Unit Picks**
49ers +13
Raiders +16.5
Panthers +10

*1 Unit Picks*
Broncos +4
Giants/Eagles Over 44
Panthers +10

Karate · 11-01-09, 12:54 PM

thanks for the solid work every week im loving your system! good luck to us all tonight!

TheKnuckleballer · 11-02-09, 06:38 PM

Yesterday (4-2) +4.8 Units
Overall (15-15-1) +9.1 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (2-0) +6 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (9-2-1) +13.4 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (4-13) -10.3 Units

Karate, thanks for the kind words. I take this very seriously, and I won't post a pick unless it fits the system and I've put in the due diligence. Check out my college football picks as well. Also, within the next couple of weeks I hope to be posting in the NBA forum. GL tonight!!

We picked up 4.8 units yesterday by hitting all three 2 Unit Picks. Tonight is another opportunity to pick up 2 more units with a live dog in New Orleans. People are overlooking this Atlanta team. Is their defense shaky? The answer to that question is YES! Does that stop me from taking them as an 11 point underdog against an undefeated Saints team? NO! My system has the Saints at -7 with a total of 53. The spread differential is minimal, but technical analysis of this game leads me to believe that the Falcons are worthy of a 2 Unit Pick tonight and may sneak away with a victory. This should be a fun game to watch, so sit back and enjoy. GL!!!!

**2 Unit Pick**
Falcons +11

(Cheers to the Falcons!!)

TheKnuckleballer · 11-08-09, 09:53 AM

Last Week (5-2) +6.8 Units
Overall (16-15-1) +11.1 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (2-0) +6 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (10-2-1) +15.4 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (4-13) -10.3 Units

The last couple of weeks have been great. I continue to struggle with my 1 Unit picks, but hitting 80% of my mulitple unit picks more than makes up for it. Today, I will go ahead and post my afternoon picks as well as my big Monday Night winner (due to possible line movement tomorrow). I look for the Panthers to keep it within the number today against the Saints. This line is inflated. I have the game capped at Saints -9. The Panthers have the #1 Pass defense, allowing just 160.6 yards passing per game. Meanwhile, the Saints have the #6 passing offense. Strength vs. Strength helps level the playing field in this divison rivalry. The Superdome should be rocking today, but that will not be enough to get the Saints a cover. Also, the Redskins should stay within the number against the Falcons today. I have this game capped at Falcons -5. The Redskins offense has struggled to put up points, but opposing offenses have struggled against the Redskins defense as well. They are allowing just 283 total yards per game and 17.6 points per game. I would not be suprised if the Redskins pulled off an upset in this spot. A Monday Night writeup will be coming soon. GL and enjoy the picks!!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Broncos +3

**2 Unit Picks**
Redskins +9
Panthers +13

*1 Unit Picks*
Texans +9
49ers -4.5

TheKnuckleballer · 11-09-09, 07:55 PM

Yesterday (2-2) -.3 Units
Overall (18-17-1) +10.8 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (2-0) +6 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (11-3-1) +15.2 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (5-14) -10.2 Units

Yesterday was a wash with us losing some juice. Tonight is for all the marbles this week. Either we pick up some units or give some back. I already posted this pick at Broncos +3 due to fear that the line might drop. I was right at some books, but some have held steady at +3. I have this game capped at Broncos -3. Two premier defenses square off tonight, both allowing under 300 total yards per game. In my opinion, the Broncos have the edge in several key defensive categories. The Broncos allow just 13.7 points per game, 3.37 yards per rush, and they allow opposing teams to convert just 33.3% of their third down attempts. Meanwhile, the Steelers defense allows 18.4 points per game, 3.79 yards per rush, and they allow teams to convert 43.3% of their third down attempts. The Broncos should be able to get pressure on Big Ben tonight, which could lead to some costly turnovers. Denver's offense is not amazing, but they are consistent, averaging 123.1 yards on the ground and 221.4 yards throught the air. This consistency and defensive edge should help the Broncos "upset" the Steelers tonight. I use the term upset lightly, becuase linemakers and the public continue to doubt McDaniels and this Broncos team. GL and enjoy the game!!

***3 Unit Pick***
Broncos +3

TheKnuckleballer · 11-15-09, 12:43 AM

Last Week (2-3) -3.6 Units
Overall (18-18-1) +7.5 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (2-1) +2.7 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (11-3-1) +15.2 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (5-14) -10.4 Units

Last week ended poorly w/ a tough 3 Unit Monday Night loss. This week, I have quite a few picks that fit my system. I also have my largest pick of the season. My first 4 star pick is the Eagles +1. I have the Eagles at -4 in this game. The Chargers defense struggles against the run allowing 4.15 YPR, while the Eagles excel on the ground averaging 4.75 YPR. Also, another key stat is that the Chargers struggle to get off the field on 3rd Down, allowing opponents to convert 43% on 3rd Down. That is the 5th worst in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Eagles are the 6th best in the NFL at getting off the field on 3rd Down. The Eagles should win this game on the road tomorrow. GL and enjoy the games!!

****4 Unit Picks****
Eagles +1

***3 Unit Picks***
Chiefs +1
Seahawks +9

**2 Unit Picks**
Lions +16.5
Bills +9.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Falcons -1
Bengals +7
Saints -14

TheKnuckleballer · 11-19-09, 11:29 PM

[COLOR=#000000! important]Last Week (2-6) -10.3 Units
Overall (20-24-1) -2.8 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Plays*** (3-2) +2.4 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (11-5-1) +10.8 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (6-16) -11.6 Units[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#000000! important][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#000000! important]Last weekend was a terrible weekend. We lost units in college and pro football. Fortunately, in college and pro football combined we are up 20+ Units. That is tough to match, and I wish everyone the best of luck going forward. GL and I will have this weeks picks posted ASAP!! Remember this is a marathon not a sprint. Also, begin looking for my NBA and College Basketball picks soon. [/COLOR]

TheKnuckleballer · 11-22-09, 12:40 PM

Last Week (2-6) -10.3 Units
Overall (20-24-1) -2.8 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Plays*** (3-2) +2.4 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (11-5-1) +10.8 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (6-16) -11.6 Units

This season has made it tough to get a rhythm in the NFL due to the lack of parody and huge spreads. These double digit spreads are unheard of in the NFL on a weekly basis. What is even stranger is that many of these spreads are warranted and extremely accurate. Now is the time to buckle down and get on a roll, so that we can finish strong and head into the playoffs with some momentum. Today, I have four 1 Unit Picks (proceed with caution!), one 2 Unit Pick, and one 3 Unit Pick. I have the Jets staying within the number against the Patriots today. The Jets defense is allowing just 281.6 yards per game and 17.6 points per game. The defense will be the reason that the Jets cover not Mark Sanchez. I have the Patriots outgaining the Jets by about 40 yards today, which should translate into a 3 point win for the Patriots. 23-20 Patriots is my predicted score. I may be back later with a Sunday Night pick, so stay tuned. GL and enjoy the picks!

***3 Unit Picks***
Jets +11

**2 Unit Picks**
Broncos +6.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Redskins +11
Bills +9
Falcons +7
Cardinals -9.5

bolekblues · 11-23-09, 04:14 AM

Damnm once again I decided to play only 2&3 unit picks and unfortunately they were 0-2

But I'm confident we'll bounce back the following weeks.

Cheers and GL

TheKnuckleballer · 11-26-09, 10:34 AM

Last Week (3-3) -3.6 Units
Overall (23-27-1) -6.4 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Plays*** (3-3) -.9 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (11-6-1) +8.6 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (9-17) -9.7 Units

The lack of parody this season is making it tough to get a rhythm going. I have two plays today that I feel very confident have a good chance of hitting. The Lions would be a two unit play if they didn 't have so many question marks as far as injuries (Stafford and Johnson). I have the Lions game capped at Packers -7. Also, I love the Broncos at home tonight. I have this game capped as a pickem, which means that I give the edge to the home team. Per my ratings, I have the Giants as the worst defensive team in the NFL. Denver has the #12 defense in the league per my ratings. The Broncos are on a 4 game losing streak, which believe it or not makes them even more appealing to me in this situation. Both teams have struggled as of late, but the Broncos defensive edge and home field advantage could very well lead to a Turkey Day upset. GL and Happy Thanksgiving!!!

BolekBlues- Happy Thanksgiving! Yea, the last couple of weeks have been tough. Right now we just need to grind it out and try to get back to .500. Best of luck!

**2 Unit Picks**
Broncos +6.5

*1 Unit Pick*
Lions +12

(Happy Thanksgiving!!!)

TheKnuckleballer · 11-29-09, 12:26 PM

Thanksgiving (1-1) +.9 Units
Overall (24-28-1) -6.4 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Plays*** (3-3) -.9 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (12-6-1) +10.6 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (9-18) -10.8 Units

Thanksgiving was good to us with a big win in the late game. Today, I have four daytime picks. In fact, I have my first 5 Unit Pick of the season today. I love the Cardinals today against the "revitalized" Titans. The Titans are gaining recognition for 4 wins against subpar opponents. Do they deserve to be favorites? I have this game capped at Cardinals -5. The Cardinals have a more efficient offense and a more effective defense. Their defense allows just 19.7 points per game. Look for Warner to pick apart this Titan secondary today and walk away with a win. GL and enjoy the football!!

*****5 Unit Picks*****
Cardinals +2

***3 Unit Picks***
Redskins +10

**2 Unit Picks**
Chiefs +13.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Colts -3

koby25 · 11-29-09, 01:51 PM

Good luck

TheKnuckleballer · 11-30-09, 07:03 PM

Overall (26-30-1) -10.1 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Plays*** (4-3) +2.1 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (12-7-1) +8.4 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (10-18) -9.8 Units

First, I just want to say that Vince Young had one heck of a drive to win the game yesterday. Those losses sting, but there is nothing you can do about big players making big plays in big situations. We will bounce back and tonight is the time and place to get started. The public is pounding the over in this game. Not me!! I have this total capped at 50.5, and I truly believe that these defenses are being overlooked in this matchup. Neither team averages giving up more than 21 points per game. My predicted score is Saints 27 - Patriots 24. GL and enjoy this fabulous Monday Night matchup!!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Patriots/Saints Under 57

(PUNT! PUNT! PUNT!)

TheKnuckleballer · 12-06-09, 11:58 AM

Overall (27-30-1) -8.1 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Plays*** (4-3) +2.1 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (13-7-1) +10.4 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (10-18) -9.8 Units

We finished strong last week with a big win on Monday Night. This week, I have three 2 Unit Picks and one 1 Unit Pick. I love the Seahawks in the late afternoon game against the 49ers. Per my system, I have this game capped at Seahawks -2. Home field advantage should account for approximately 3 points in this matchup. The 49ers have struggled on the road going 1-4, while the Seahawks are 3-2 at home. Enjoy the football today and GL!!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Colts -6.5
Raiders +14.5
Seahawks +1

*1 Unit Picks*
Vikings -3.5

TheKnuckleballer · 12-07-09, 01:06 PM

I hope everyone is having a great day. I mentioned several days ago that I would be posting how I track my success and why I do it in that manner. I use the same method used by Dr. Bob, because I respect his long term track record of success and to be quite honest it is the only way that makes sense. In my opinion, a "Total Unit Based Record" must be used to compute your overall winning %. This means that higher unit picks are weighted more heavily than lower unit picks. For example, a 1 Unit win obviously counts as 1 win, while a 3 Unit win counts as 3 wins. Likewise, a 1 Unit loss counts as 1 loss, while a 3 Unit loss counts as 3 losses. This risk adjusted winning percentage is the only way to truly track a handicappers success. Below is my updated record, which includes my "Total Unit Based Record" and risk adjusted winning %. GL and I hope you enjoyed yesterday's winners!!

Overall
Wins
30
Losses
31
Pushes
1
Units
-2.3
5 Unit Picks010-5.54 Unit Picks010-4.43 Unit Picks4302.12 Unit Picks167116.41 Unit Picks10190-10.9Total Unit Record54512-2.3Risk Adj. Winning % 50.47%

TheKnuckleballer · 12-07-09, 01:22 PM

Lets try that again. I hope everyone is having a great day. I mentioned several days ago that I would be posting how I track my success and why I do it in that manner. I use the same method used by Dr. Bob, because I respect his long term track record of success and to be quite honest it is the only way that makes sense. In my opinion, a "Total Unit Based Record" must be used to compute your overall winning %. This means that higher unit picks are weighted more heavily than lower unit picks. For example, a 1 Unit win obviously counts as 1 win, while a 3 Unit win counts as 3 wins. Likewise, a 1 Unit loss counts as 1 loss, while a 3 Unit loss counts as 3 losses. This risk adjusted winning percentage is the only way to truly track a handicappers success. Below is my updated record, which includes my "Total Unit Based Record" and risk adjusted winning %. GL and I hope you enjoyed yesterday's winners!!

Overall (30-31-1) -2.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-3) +2.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (16-7-1) +16.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (10-19) -10.9 Units

Total Unit Based Record (54-51-2) -2.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % 50.47%

TheKnuckleballer · 12-10-09, 06:16 PM

Overall (30-31-1) -2.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-3) +2.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (16-7-1) +16.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (10-19) -10.9 Units

Total Unit Based Record (54-51-2) -2.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % 50.47%

Tonight, I only have one pick. I like the Over in tonight's matchup. I have this total capped at 40. The Over is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings between these two team. My projected score is Steelers 24-Browns 16. GL and enjoy the game!!

*1 Unit Pick*
Steelers/Browns Over 34

TheKnuckleballer · 12-13-09, 11:39 AM

Overall (30-32-1) -3.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-3) +2.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (16-7-1) +16.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (10-20) -12 Units

Total Unit Based Record (54-52-2) -3.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (50.00%)

Below are my picks. I don't have time for a write up today, but GL and enjoy the football today!!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Broncos +7

**2 Unit Picks**
Falcons +10
Seahawks +7
Panthers +13
Jets/Bucs Over 36.5
Rams +13

*1 Unit Picks*
Jets -3.5
Chargers +3.5

TheKnuckleballer · 12-17-09, 06:52 PM

Overall (34-36-1) -7.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-4) -1.2 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (18-10-1) +13.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (12-20) -10 Units

Total Unit Based Record (60-61-2) -7.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (48.78%)

This has been a tough NFL season thus far. Fortunately, we are up in College Football and NBA, and we still have time to get out of the red in the NFL. Tonight, I have one 1 Unit Pick. I like the Colts at -3 tonight, despite the uncertainty as to how long the starters will play in this matchup. My gut says that Peyton plays at least 3 quarters and it may be a good sign if they are able to pull him going into the 4th quarter. I have this game capped at -7, and I am confident that the Colts will remain unbeaten. GL and enjoy the football!! Check out my NBA thread as well.

*1 Unit Picks*
Colts -3

TheKnuckleballer · 12-19-09, 04:21 PM

Overall (35-36-1) -6.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-1) -5.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-4) -1.2 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (18-10-1) +13.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (13-20) -9 Units

Total Unit Based Record (61-61-2) -6.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (49.19%)

By the most narrow of margins, we picked up a unit on Thursday with a Colts cover in a game with 10 lead changes. Tonight, I have a contrarian play that fits the system perfectly. My system has this game capped at Saints -5.5. The Cowboys should see some success on the ground tonight, which should keep this game under a TD difference. Yes, the Saints are at home, but they are not unbeatable. I have a gut feeling that the Cowboys sneak away with an upset tonight. GL and enjoy the game!!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Cowboys +9

***The Knuckleballers Computer Based System Tracking Thread***

The Knuckleballers Computer Based System Tracking Thread