NFL Underground Leans - Week 4

[solobass]

btw there are more punks/fakers/clowns in vegas than on all internet chatboards!

[solobass]

real quick fun fact of the day

59% of road teams win ATS so far this year!

[Dexter]

Dexter,

Do you really bet that many games?? I remember last year you were preaching not playing so many games? I'm just curious if you've changed your style up? With you on the PATS this week. I have a rather large teaser bet rolling GMen-2.5/Skins -.5/Saints -.5

you're right - it is way too many games. its less then last week, and my mindset is too bet smaller amounts (with more games) earlier in the year while i get a pulse for teams. then towards the end of the year play heavier with less games.

end of the season is when you see more revenge angles come into play - those are the types of games (if they line up with historical trends) that i like to go heavier on.

[Dexter]

MJ - welcome back

even units on all games?

[Dexter]

btw guys - i started a season long underground nba thread. nba is where its at for many of us

[repski]

I knew you had a plan

[Dexter]

i didnt like the titans coming into this year, but this is not an 0-4 team.

[Dexter]

by no means am i a fan of vince young - but perhaps his running ability can spark something for the titans. its time for kerry collins to have a seat.

[AdaBarber]

Dallas -3

[Dexter]

ok, the titans are toast and i wont back them for a while. under skins came home a winner. now just waiting on the pats and browns.

[oda11]

Dallas -3!

[Dexter]

wow....the ravens made it interesting, but the pats hold on. welker is back, and the pats might be ready to go on a roll.

browns may just end in a tie which is fine with me +6

now onto the jets, 49ers and broncos in the late games.

[ragiche]

ragiche...

I like the Gmen also...but doesnt that line seem too easy?? Or am i looking a gift horse in the mouth...

dark,
unfortunately that is true..Dexter is still a solid handicapper...but when I bet that many games the book is happy...he's getting his vig.

I just read it just now.Sorry for the late reply.You have a point but the Gmen came through for us

[ragiche]

2 down and 1 to go.Let's go dolphins .

[AdaBarber]

Steelers -5.5: They are a very good team that is desperate! This is a make or break game. We shall see! Gotta ride the Steelers.

[ragiche]

Advance Happy Birthday to you Dexter.That will be tomorrow if i remember it right.I'll be working tomorrow and can't join you in your party but i can accompany you tonight.Drinks on me.Just don't get drunk we do have a football game to cash in.Wish you all the luck bro .

[Dexter]

up 6x for the day heading into the night play on pitt -6 for 3x.

adding another 3x on the under 43.5

[Dexter]

Advance Happy Birthday to you Dexter.That will be tomorrow if i remember it right.I'll be working tomorrow and can't join you in your party but i can accompany you tonight.Drinks on me.Just don't get drunk we do have a football game to cash in.Wish you all the luck bro .

haha - thx ragiche. i just got back from a huge steak dinner with my family. getting ready for sunday night football and dexter episode 2!

[Dexter]

that score was a little too quick for my taste.

[Dexter]

week 5 early booked plays:

(5x) over cards 48

(3x) giants -13 (A2)

(2x) under panthers 37.5

(2x) 49ers -2.5

*writeups to follow in the week 5 thread

[MarkHammond]

week 5 early booked plays:

(5x) over cards 48

(3x) giants -13 (A2)

(2x) under panthers 37.5

(2x) 49ers -2.5

*writeups to follow in the week 5 thread

whats the giants autobet?

[twentyonekid]

(3x) titans -2.5 - its now or never time for the titans who are off to an 0-3 start. in every game till the end, they now travel to jax where they have won and covered their last 2 meetings.

(2x) pats -2 - the ravens look great, but i cant pass up brady at home laying less then a fg.

(3x) browns +6 (A1) fade any team who beats the steelers the next week at a minimum of 3x

(2x) under redskins 37 - two bad offenses in a game which should be played mostly on the ground. 37 actually seems like nice value to me. this will go down.

(2x) jets +6.5 - something has to give here with the saints offense vs the jets defense. give me the defensive team + points every time.

(3x) 49ers -10 - ive had the 49ers for all 3 covers so far this year - not stopping vs the rams.

(3x) steelers -6 - the steelers (1-2) need this game more then the chargers (1-2) do and are 5-0 su/4-1 ats the last 5 home games vs sd

(2x) over vikings 46 - i see gb getting there's as they have one of the better offenses in the league - favre seems to always play big under the spotlight - expect a few audibles from him at the line to check off a running play. natiionally televised games usually stay high.

dexter your quickly turning into my favorite capper on the site in the nfl......nice sunday buddy....keep er going pal

[Dexter]

whats the giants autobet?

(A2)fade any team that plays on the east coast at 1pm when their is a 3 hour time difference from their home state for a minimum of 2x. (A2)

dexter your quickly turning into my favorite capper on the site in the nfl......nice sunday buddy....keep er going pal

thx man.

[MarkHammond]

(A2)fade any team that plays on the east coast at 1pm when their is a 3 hour time difference from their home state for a minimum of 2x. (A2)



thx man.

u should wait to be sure eli is playing first dex

[twentyonekid]

u should wait to be sure eli is playing first dex

why did eli get injured in the game today?

[MarkHammond]

why did eli get injured in the game today?

yep hurt his heel didnt finish the game

mri tommo

giants might start carr treat the raiders as a bye week or call more running plays so eli dont have to move alot

[Dexter]

(2x) over vikings 46 - i see gb getting there's as they have one of the better offenses in the league - favre seems to always play big under the spotlight - expect a few audibles from him at the line to check off a running play. natiionally televised games usually stay high.

adding another 2x to the over vikings 46

[MarkHammond]

adding another 2x to the over vikings 46

u not worried about another monday night under like last week?

[Dexter]

u not worried about another monday night under like last week?

based on what? just b/c last mondays game went under that means this one might?

i dont buy into those types of theories at all. makes no sense to me.

*wow, what a shame. 7 pts by sd on a horrific play. goodbye under.

[MarkHammond]

based on what? just b/c last mondays game went under that means this one might?

i dont by into those types of theories at all. makes no sense to me.

*wow, what a shame. 7 pts by sd on a horrific play. goodbye under.

based on a good Vikings defense and a possible blowout

[Dexter]

u should wait to be sure eli is playing first dex

bro, this was not a lean. these were booked plays i jumped on b/c i felt i had advantages on the lines provided. i projected the giants at around a 14/14.5 pt choice. if eli doesnt play (doesnt sound that serious though) the line goes to maybe 11. still within the key numbers of 10 and 13. the worst i can do is push. this line wont go down to 10 or < b/c of manning. the giants are a great team b/c of their offensive and defensive lines. missing manning for the giants is not like the colts missing manning.

and if he does play, i would be shocked if this doesnt go up to 14 or >.

[Dexter]

based on a good Vikings defense and a possible blowout

now you have reasons, before you made it sound like just a monday night theory..

anyway, the vikings do have a good defense but im not so sure a blowout will occur with this game just at a 4 point line. i can see if there was a double digit fav etc.....but "on paper" this should be a close game.

im very high on the packers this year - they have a lot of weapons.

[Dexter]

good bye under - what a shame.

[Dexter]

i almost dont want this fg

pitt may play a prevent up 10

*even if the chargers lose, they will be ready to roll in week 6 after the bye week (monday home game vs denver). great comeback effort.

[ragiche]

MNF play:

Vikings -4.5 (3x)

GB/MIN Over 45.5 (2x)

GL guys .