NFL Underground Leans - Week 4

shoebox · 09-28-09, 06:37 PM

GL dex

darkenergy · 09-28-09, 06:40 PM

with ya on 49er Dexter...

taxman · 09-28-09, 08:34 PM

Hey Dex was a tough week for me...like Browns here after last second victory by Cincy...Titans and Fisher need a win more than the Skins need consoling after losing to Motown yesterday....

Mybologne · 09-29-09, 07:29 AM

Dexter · 09-29-09, 06:57 PM

(2x) broncos +3 (A5)

Killer Chihuahua · 09-30-09, 12:03 PM

Killer Plays

Chicago Bears -10

The Lions played the RedSkins this Sunday and won their first game in over a year. That's encouraging tons of bettors to back Detroit here as the Lions new QB of the future, Matt Stafford, looked impressive against a horrible Washington team. Kevin Smith, the team's all-purpose running back, has been ruled "week to week," meaning there's less than a 50 percent chance that he'll play. And even if he starts, he won't be at full capacity and could hurt the team rather than help it. Smith is the guy on this Detroit team who makes the offense work. Smith suffered his injury in the third quarter when the score was 13-7. After he left the game, Detroit had only one successful drive, helped by a big pass interference penalty. Not having Smith at 100 percent will hinder the running game and it will also take an option out of the backfield for Stafford. That wouldn't be so bad if the Lions were playing the Browns or Chiefs, but the Bears are another story. I don't trust Detroit's offensive line to hold up on third-and-long situations in this game. If Detroit can't get their play action pass down field to Calvin Johnson, Chicago will Tee off on this o-line.

Chicago RB Matt Forte has really struggled thus far. However, Forte played two good defenses the first two weeks. On Sunday, the Seahawks were fully committed to shutting down the run, threatening Jay Cutler to beat them. He did. Cutler went 21-of-27 for 247 yards and three touchdowns. Now that he's improving every week, teams are no longer going to be able to focus on stopping Forte. And it's not like the Lions could do that anyway. Lovie Smith and Ron Turner aren't inept like Jim Zorn, so they're going to give Forte the ball around 25 times in this contest. Forte's running will set up play-action opportunities for Cutler, who will torch Detroit's anemic secondary.
Everyone is loving the Lions now because they won a game. I'm not. While the Redskins stink, the Bears certainly don't. In fact, Detroit's victory will make Chicago more focused here, and I already thought they would be prepared because they have a bye next week. With Kevin Smith either out or hobbled, this looks like a blowout to me. With a bye coming up, the Bears will be focused. Here is one major trend to not over look as well on this game.....Favorites of 6.5 or more are 30-6 ATS going into a bye
With over 75% of the betting public on DETROIT, my selection is on the Bears

BEARS -10

Killer Chihuahua · 09-30-09, 12:36 PM

Killer Plays

Saints -6.5

I have to admit, at first glance I was all aboard the Rex Ryan train with this game. What? You are going to give me how many points and have the Jets stop defense. Then I bagan scratching the surface of this contest and realized this might not be a contest at all.
Lets start with the Jets...or should I say 2008 Baltimore look alike team. Last year, Baltimore went into Indianapolis and lost 31-3. Peyton Manning torched the Ravens' secondary, and I believe Drew Brees will do the same thing to the Jets. Rex Ryan loves to bring the blitz. Unfortunately, it's impossible to blitz Brees. If the Jets attempt to do so, he's going to burn them. He's too good, his offensive line is amazing, and he has a solid running game by his side to support him. Yes the jets have a shut down corner who has held Moss and Andre Johnson in check, but its going to take the whole secondary to cover these receivers. "I just know that you've got to be multiple against this guy. If you're just going to stand there and play Cover 2 or you're going to play Cover 1 or you're going to play Cover 3 or whatever, this guy's a student of the game. He's going to pick you apart." - Ryan in the New York Post on Saints quarterback Drew Brees.

The Jets offense has been pretty good so far this year as well. Mark Sanchez has done a great job managing games and converting third downs thus far, but can he beat a team in a shootout? Eventually, he'll be able to, but he's so young that it's pretty difficult to expect him to match Brees point for point. Like Joe Flacco last year, I don't think Sanchez will be able to keep up with the Saints. And it's not like New Orleans has a bad defense either; the Saints are coming off a shutout (Buffalo's lone touchdown came on special teams), and rank seventh and eighth against the run and the pass, respectively. Sanchez has not faced a defense as talented as New Orleans' yet.

I'm pretty confident that New Orleans will take care of business at home, in the dome on turf, going into its bye. The same trend holds here as in the Chicago game......Favorites of 6.5 or more are 30-6 ATS going into a bye.
In the battle of two 3-0 teams, It does not suprise me the public is on the better offensive team at home but only to the tune of 63%

New Orleans -6 (hook buy)

Killer Chihuahua · 09-30-09, 01:20 PM

Killer Plays

Miami + 2.5

Talk about getting value in a game! What has Buffalo done yet this year to be considered road favorites! With the injurry to Chad Pennington, Miami will deploy Chad Henne. Henne will probably not affect Miami's game plan, which is running the ball out of standard and Wildcat formations, and having their quarterback convert third downs. This will be effective because Buffalo is 24th versus the rush. Besides, I don't think Henne is that bad anyway. I know he tossed that pick-six to Eric Weddle, but he had no reps during the week and he was just trying to make something happen down 16-6 with less than six minutes remaining in regulation. After that interception, Henne came back and led the Dolphins on a 10-play, 76-yard touchdown drive. As long as his running game is working, I don't see how Henne can be any worse than Pennington would be in this contest. Henne actually has good arm strength, so unlike Pennington, he can stretch the field. Given that the Bills will be missing Leodis McKelvin and Donte Whitner, this could be a huge problem for them.

As I stated in my write-up last week, I wasn't shocked at all to see the Saints abuse Trent Edwards' blockers for four sacks on Sunday. The Dolphins too have the horses to get to the quarterback consistently, so there might be some pressure in Edwards' face for Terrell Owens to see an ample amount of touches. And you know what happens when Owens' numbers are limited... internal blow up!
The Bills get Marshawn Lynch back from suspension, but that's not a good thing. Well, it can be if Dick Jauron keeps Fred Jackson in as the starter and allows Lynch to plow away in short-yardage situations. However, Jauron may not be cunning enough to realize that Jackson is his most talented offensive player. The Dolphins stop the run well, so they need a pass-catching back like Jackson to move the chains. Lynch won't be an effective option here.

So why is Buffalo favored? Well, because the public is all over the Bills (77%) because Chad Pennington is out. Miami will run, run, run and the bills do not have the fire power that ATL, INDI, and SD have. The Dolphins are 10-3 ATS as a home underdog after two straight losses the previous 13 instances and dont forget this was an 11 game winning team last year! Miami will not lose at home to fall to 0-4.

Miami +3 (hook buy)
miami ml

Killer Chihuahua · 09-30-09, 01:43 PM

Killer Plays

Baltimore +2

I thought these two teams have already played and the ravens won? Oh wait, that was the Ravens little brother named the Jets! Now big brother gets its chance to show these Pats how to really play football. What a gift from the football Gods to give what might be the all around best team in the league (ok the saints are really good on both sides too) points. I dont care if its just two points, I will take and use them for the easy win.
Lets start with New England. The Patriots put up 26 on the Falcons, but they did not look good in the process. Tom Brady once again was hesitant and misfired on some throws he normally would have converted. New England was only able to win because the team established Fred Taylor on the ground. Taylor looked impressive, breaking numerous tackles en route to a 105-yard performance. However, don't expect that again. The Falcons are horrendous versus the run, while the Ravens are ranked second against it. The Patriots will be forced to utilize a one-dimensional offense once again.
Baltimore's stop unit is too good and Brady is not himself. Brady had major problems against the Jets, so it doesn't bode well here because the Ravens run a similar style of defense.

The other problem for New England is its defense. With Richard Seymour gone and Jerod Mayo out, they're having major problems stopping the pass and getting to the quarterback. Their ability to defend the run is the best aspect of their stop unit, and they rank just 14th against it. Joe Flacco is really coming into his own, and I really can't see the Patriots containing him. Stationed behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, Flacco will have tons of time to find his targets. Flacco will also have the luxury of just handing the ball off to Ray Rice and Willis McGahee, who haven't been stopped yet this season. New England's defense doesn't have the manpower to make that happen.

I believe the wrong team is favored here. New England is living off its past success and should be 1-2 if not for the fumble in the Buffalo game. A similar style team (NY) that is not as good as Baltimore has already beat them by 7. The public sees through vegas is backing the Ravens but at only 59%. Most of the large money bets will sit on the Baltimore ML

Baltimore +3 (1pt buy)
Baltimore ML

eastvan09 · 09-30-09, 02:21 PM

Dex, I am with you on the Titans. I don't love the 49ers at -10 but the Rams are awful. The niners D will get some takeaways and give the O short fields and maybe score a TD.

Totolover1409 · 09-30-09, 02:22 PM

Really like the Baltimore pick.

djpremier36 · 09-30-09, 02:36 PM

Holy shit killer...I'm leaning the same way on all those games!?!

I like your handicapping style.

alukk · 09-30-09, 02:56 PM

yea im also leaning on Saints, Baltimore, miami(not sure yet)

alukk · 09-30-09, 02:56 PM

and also the cowboys

Redchevy · 09-30-09, 03:09 PM

No cakewalk for Balt. KC hung 24 on them in a losing effort, SD hung 26 and almost 33 for an outright win. How much will Brady hang on them at home with Welker back? That's the million dollar question. The Pats D is getting no respect here, yet they held Sanchez to 1 touchdown and Matt Ryan with Tony Gonzalez to 0. NE kicked 4 field goals against in the red zone against a very good Atlanta team. That trend will not continue, NE is at home, Welker should be back, NE will win this one going away. JMO, good luck to all!!!

Killer Chihuahua · 09-30-09, 09:19 PM

Originally posted by Redchevy

No cakewalk for Balt. KC hung 24 on them in a losing effort, SD hung 26 and almost 33 for an outright win. How much will Brady hang on them at home with Welker back? That's the million dollar question. The Pats D is getting no respect here, yet they held Sanchez to 1 touchdown and Matt Ryan with Tony Gonzalez to 0. NE kicked 4 field goals against in the red zone against a very good Atlanta team. That trend will not continue, NE is at home, Welker should be back, NE will win this one going away. JMO, good luck to all!!!

Redchevy,

you back the Pats every week. LOL....all one has to do is look back at your past posts and see you are a NE fan (nothing wrong with being a fan). Hey, I agree that NE has been a money making machine in the past, but this is not the same ELITE team. With Richard Seymour gone and Jerod Mayo out, they're having major problems stopping the pass and getting to the quarterback as I said before. Brady has not been as accurate with his throws and is delivering the too ball early. Yes, Welker will help his cause, but not as much in this game.

KC did score 24 on Baltimore, but lets break it down. One touch down came on a blocked punt returned for a td. one TD came after an intercecption which was returned to the Baltimore 6 yard line. One drive was a legit drive and the fieldgoal was from 53 yards. Two mistakes wich cost Baltimore 14 points. Something that happens to all teams early in the season....just ask Brady as he has 2 int this year.
Yes San Diego scored on the Ravens as well, but San Diego has a high powered offense which is good for 8th in the league in scoring....NE is 16th if your keeping score and Baltimore is second (yes second) only behind the Saints!
That their my friend is what makes this Baltimore team dangerous. They now have a balanced Passing offense that NE will have a harder time slowing down then the previous 3 teams NE has played (Buffalo 24th, Jets 25th and Atl 16th in passing yards) Baltimore is 5th if your keeping score!
Lets look at the two teams Rushing stats as well.... Baltimore is 5th in yards per game with 156 while NE is 17th with 108 yards per game. Advantage Baltimore!

Lets look at what these two teams are giving up on the ground. Baltimore has given up a total of 153 yards through 3 games for an average of 51 yards per game. That is good for the BEST rushing defense in the league. NE has given up 265 yards through 3 games for an average of 88 yards per game good for 10th in the league. Once again, advantage Baltimore.

Just to be fair we can look at the special teams play of both teams and they mirror each other in all catagories so no advantage their.

I agree that this game will be no cakewalk for Baltimore, but I believe that with the points Baltimore is receiving from the oddsmaker, Balti will cover and win outright. I hope this can sway everyone from the darkside, Keep you from drinking the NE Kool-aid, and make you take off the NE rose colored glasses.
Good luck with what ever your selection is!

Baltimore ML
Baltimore +3 (hook Buy)

Dexter · 09-30-09, 10:07 PM

nice writeups kc

Redchevy · 10-01-09, 05:38 AM

Keep in mind SDs' high powered offense that is ranked 8th, earned that spot facing Oakland and Miami, in their other 2 games, enough said about that. Rankings this early in the season can be very skewed as both SD and Balt. have both played 4 of the worst Teams in the NFL, out of 6 games. Good luck with your play!

Killer Chihuahua · 10-01-09, 11:58 AM

You too!

taxman · 10-01-09, 07:33 PM

Dex like your play on Denver as a home dog here....Dallas on a short week playing a non divisonal rival off a Monday night W...really like the UNDER 42 1/2 also...good luck man

Sweatyguido · 10-01-09, 11:14 PM

Killer Chihuahua

just got done checking out walterfootball.com and then i come here and i notice your write ups are almost word for word as what walter says.
Examples:
on the bears-lions game you write: 'Everyone is loving the Lions now because they won a game. I'm not. While the Redskins stink, the Bears certainly don't. In fact, Detroit's victory will make Chicago more focused here, and I already thought they would be prepared because they have a bye next week. With Kevin Smith either out or hobbled, this looks like a blowout to me. With a bye coming up, the Bears will be focused.'

walter writes: 'Everyone is loving the Lions now because they won a game. I'm not. While the Redskins stink, the Bears certainly don't. In fact, Detroit's victory will make Chicago more focused here, and I already thought they would be prepared because they have a bye next week. With Kevin Smith either out or hobbled, this looks like a blowout to me.'

in fact most of what your write up is directly from his write up
you write: 'Lovie Smith and Ron Turner aren't inept like Jim Zorn, so they're going to give Forte the ball around 25 times in this contest. Forte's running will set up play-action opportunities for Cutler, who will torch Detroit's anemic secondary.

walter writes: 'Lovie Smith and Ron Turner aren't inept like Jim Zorn, so they're going to give Forte the ball around 25 times in this contest. Forte's running will set up play-action opportunities for Cutler, who will torch Detroit's anemic secondary.'

the other write ups follow in the same way. check out walterfootball.com and click on Week 4 games. its actually very in depth. so Killer Chihuahua, are you Walter or are u copying from him. if thats the case, not cool man.

Dexter · 10-03-09, 02:29 PM

no plagiarism in this thread please.

AdaBarber · 10-04-09, 06:34 AM

Cincy -6.5: I think this one started out at -3.5. I don't think Cleveland will fool anyone with starting D. Anderson. They are just horrible.
NE -2.5: I am with Dex. I can't pass up Brady at home and Belichek on the sidelines against a new head coach.
Seattle +10.5: Indy can't beat anybody by double digits. They only did it twice last year. Seneca doesn't make mistakes and Indy can't run. And Indy's front seven are banged up. Sweeney is very important to their success. No Sweeney, no pressure!

Good job Dex!

AdaBarber · 10-04-09, 06:35 AM

Cincy -6.5: I think this one started out at -3.5. I don't think Cleveland will fool anyone with starting D. Anderson. They are just horrible.
NE -2.5: I am with Dex. I can't pass up Brady at home and Belichek on the sidelines against a new head coach.
Seattle +10.5: Indy can't beat anybody by double digits. They only did it twice last year. Seneca doesn't make mistakes and Indy can't run. And Indy's front seven are banged up. Sweeney is very important to their success. No Sweeney, no pressure!

Good job Dex!

AdaBarber · 10-04-09, 06:37 AM

I don't know why my computer keeps double posting. Sorry fellas.

AdaBarber · 10-04-09, 06:41 AM

Wow. We even plagiarize to get recognition on a site where you can gain popularity just by the amount you post! That is not good!

BigAL · 10-04-09, 07:28 AM

don't think I can agree on my browns team doing too well today. Good luck

Skidcom · 10-04-09, 08:22 AM

Really appreciate the ideas. Thank you

ragiche · 10-04-09, 09:21 AM

Giants -9 (5x)

Bears -10 (3x)

Dolphins -1(3x)

GL guys

.

twentyonekid · 10-04-09, 09:31 AM

good luck dexter,like the titans and pats a lot

repski · 10-04-09, 10:17 AM

Dexter,

Do you really bet that many games?? I remember last year you were preaching not playing so many games? I'm just curious if you've changed your style up? With you on the PATS this week. I have a rather large teaser bet rolling GMen-2.5/Skins -.5/Saints -.5

darkenergy · 10-04-09, 10:42 AM

Originally posted by repski

Dexter, Do you really bet that many games?? I remember last year you were preaching not playing so many games? I'm just curious if you've changed your style up? With you on the PATS this week. I have a rather large teaser bet rolling GMen-2.5/Skins -.5/Saints -.5

Things changed and people changed around here recently repski,

repski · 10-04-09, 11:06 AM

ragiche...

I like the Gmen also...but doesnt that line seem too easy?? Or am i looking a gift horse in the mouth...

dark,
unfortunately that is true..Dexter is still a solid handicapper...but when I bet that many games the book is happy...he's getting his vig.

solobass · 10-04-09, 11:14 AM

hey whats up everyone! i am back in michigan for (praying to god) tigers playoff games.

lions +10
raiders +9
jags +3
giants -8.5
ravens +2
jets +7
49ers -9.5
chargers +6
vikings -3.5

best of luck everyone!