Hotcross NFL 2019 thread

[hotcross]

Decided to go ahead and do another NFL thread this year

My previous 2 years NFL record documented on SBR:

2017: +/- 0 units (15-15 W/L = .500 pct)
2018: -16.08 units (18-35-3 W/L/D = .339 pct)

Lackluster results, so fading this thread will be profitable for the SBR community, unless I can improve

I do not "flat bet" in any sports.
These are my real wagers, typically risking 1 to 5 units per play


Thursday Sept.5 - Opening Night

CHICAGO -162 ML // 3.24 units to win 2

[hotcross]

Hold the Packers to 10 points in the game and lose badly

Trubisky had the same stupid look on his face the whole game

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WEEK 1 - Sunday Sept.8


WASHINGTON +10 -105 // 3.15 units to win 3
WASHINGTON ML +400 // 1 unit to win 4.00

MINNESOTA -3.5 -105 // 2.10 units to win 2

JACKSONVILLE +3.5 -105 // 2.10 units to win 2

MIAMI +7 -105 // 1.05 units to win 1

SAN FRANCISCO +1 -105 // 2.10 units to win 2

DALLAS -7 -105 // 2.10 units to win 2

OAKLAND +2.5 +100 // 2 units to win 2
OAKLAND ML +125 // 1 unit to win 1.25

NEW ENGLAND -5.5 -110 // 2.20 units to win 2



sorry for the last minute post, will try to get the picks posted earlier next time

[hotcross]

Good Sunday, although a couple bad misses on the 2 Florida teams, up +6.85 units for Sunday

Oakland is a Monday Night game

Will do a weekly tally after that

[hotcross]

WEEK 1 - Thursday Sept.5 - Opening Night

-3.24 Loss >> CHICAGO -162 ML // 3.24 units to win 2


WEEK 1 - Sunday Sept.8

+3.00 Win >> WASHINGTON +10 -105 // 3.15 units to win 3

-1.00 Loss >> WASHINGTON ML +400 // 1 unit to win 4.00

+2.00 Win >> MINNESOTA -3.5 -105 // 2.10 units to win 2

-2.10 Loss >> JACKSONVILLE +3.5 -105 // 2.10 units to win 2

-1.05 Loss >> MIAMI +7 -105 // 1.05 units to win 1

+2.00 Win >> SAN FRANCISCO +1 -105 // 2.10 units to win 2

+2.00 Win >> DALLAS -7 -105 // 2.10 units to win 2

+2.00 Win >> NEW ENGLAND -5.5 -110 // 2.20 units to win 2

WEEK 1 - Monday Sept.9

+2.00 Win >> OAKLAND +2.5 +100 // 2 units to win 2

+1.25 Win >> OAKLAND ML +125 // 1 unit to win 1.25

Results: WEEK 1 = +6.86 units (7-4 W/L = .636 pct)

[hotcross]

Still need to take a deeper look at Week 2

I might not play every week of the season

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Week 2 - Sunday Sept.15

OAKLAND +6.5 +100 // 3.75 units to win 3.75


so far, this looks to be my only NFL pick for Week 2.
I was on Jacksonville last week against the Chiefs, once that went down in flames, figured I'd try it again.

[hotcross]

adding ::

DETROIT -102 ML // 3.06 units to win 3


ok decided to add this hidden gem

GL to all today

[Ryermkd]

Mans putting in work!

[hotcross]

Raiders game still waaaaay early, but good start. Freerolling basically today after the Detroit win.

I press bet size when winning, and think you're pretty much the same philosophy.

[hotcross]

....and just in the blink of the eye 28-10 Chiefs with 4 unanswered touchdowns

I'm sitting here watching the game on TV, the throws are accurate by Mahomes, but the amazing thing is the receivers are catching everything, a couple with very tight coverage, defenders all over them, and yet they still catch the ball.

Just don't see a whole lot of that in the league.

[Ryermkd]

Whole other half to play, maybe Oak gets a fg here...

[hotcross]

10-0 Raiders first Quarter
28-0 Chiefs second Quarter

and that was it! Carr had a terrible game after coming out hot in the first Quarter


adding ::

Sunday Night Football

PHILADELPHIA -1 -102 // 1.02 units to win 1


see if I can break even on the day
I think this is an easy play, but seen and heard a lot of debate both ways on it

[hotcross]

lost the Sunday Night game, some people would say it was the wrong side all along, but that was a crazy finish, and Philly made one bad play on that 4th down TD to Julio Jones that cost them the game

OK moving on to Monday Night Football....risking my profits on a double-up, will tally Week 2 after tonight

Monday Sept.16

UNDER 13.5 -115 CLEVELAND FIRST HALF TEAM TOTAL // 5.75 units to win 5


seeing this as the Jets at home for the Monday night game will come out with a chip on their shoulder

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WEEK 2 - Sunday Sept.15

-3.75 Loss >> OAKLAND +6.5 +100 // 3.75 units to win 3.75

+3.00 Win >> DETROIT -102 ML // 3.06 units to win 3

-1.02 Loss >> PHILADELPHIA -1 -102 // 1.02 units to win 1

WEEK 2 - Monday Sept.16

-5.75 Loss >> UNDER 13.5 -115 CLEVELAND FIRST HALF TEAM TOTAL // 5.75 units to win 5

Results:

WEEK 2 = -7.52 units (1-3 W/L)

OVERALL: -0.66 units (8-7 W/L = .533 pct)

[hotcross]

My last pick was questionable and not how I should bet these games. So it deserved to lose. However, so many sequence of events had to happen to allow Cleveland to score at the end of the first half.

Tonight, I'm convinced the Jaguars will win their first game of the season, but the points are cheap so I'll take 'em.


Thursday Sept.19

JACKSONVILLE +2.5 -115 *buy 0.5 point // 2.30 units to win 2

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Week 3 - Sunday Sept.22

OVER 41.5 -105 DEN@GB // 2.10 units to win 2

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Week 3 - Thursday Sept.19
+2.00 Win >> JACKSONVILLE +2.5 -115 *buy 0.5 point // 2.30 units to win 2


Week 3 - Sunday Sept.22
+2.00 Win >> OVER 41.5 -105 DEN@GB // 2.10 units to win 2

I'm done for this week, not playing Sunday night / Monday night

Results:

WEEK 3 = +4.00 units (2-0 W/L)

OVERALL: +3.34 units (10-7 W/L = .588 pct)

[StackinGreen]

Smart man

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WEEK 4 = NO PLAYS


might have avoided disaster / or / a very good week
Lot of underdogs won/covered in Week 4

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Week 5 - Sunday Oct.6

WASHINGTON +15.5 -110 // 2.20 units to win 2

UNDER 47 -110 GB@DAL // 1.10 units to win 1


I think Washington could surprise this week with a good game against the Patriots.

[StackinGreen]

GB Dallas under looks sharp

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adding ::

PARLAY 2-TEAMS @ +137:
> CINCINNATI -158 ML
> HOUSTON -210 ML
risk 2 units to win 2.74

[hotcross]

adding :: Week 5 - Monday Oct.7


SAN FRANCISCO -225 ML // 4.50 units to win 2


waited as this line moved during the weekend to the point we are now, but it took me that long to determine the 49ers will win this game

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Week 5 - Sunday Oct.6

-2.20 Loss >> WASHINGTON +15.5 -110 // 2.20 units to win 2

-1.10 Loss >> UNDER 47 -110 GB@DAL // 1.10 units to win 1

-2.00 Loss >> PARLAY 2-TEAMS @ +137:
> CINCINNATI -158 ML (Lost)
> HOUSTON -210 ML (Won)
risk 2 units to win 2.74


WEEK 5 - Monday Oct.7

+2.00 Win >> SAN FRANCISCO -225 ML // 4.50 units to win 2

Results:

WEEK 5 = -3.30 units (1-3 W/L)

OVERALL: +0.04 units (11-10 W/L = .523 pct)

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Week 6 - Thursday Oct.10

OVER 43 -110 NYG@NE // 4.40 units to win 4


will total up results at the end of Week 6, still working on anything for Sunday/Monday

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Results:

WEEK 6 = +4.00 units (1-0 W/L)

OVERALL: +4.04 units (12-10 W/L = .545 pct)


Made just the one wager in Week 6 but it was a good one

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Week 7 - Thursday Oct.17

DENVER +3 -115 // 2.30 units to win 2


Joining the party on Denver for Thursday Night.

Will total up results at the end of Week 7

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Week 7 - Sunday Oct.20

CHICAGO -215 ML // 4.30 units to win 2

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Week 7 - Sunday Night Oct.20

DALLAS -3 -110 // 3.30 units to win 3

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Week 7 - Thursday Oct.17

-2.30 Loss >> DENVER +3 -115 // 2.30 units to win 2


WEEK 7 - Sunday Oct.20

-4.30 Loss >> CHICAGO -215 ML // 4.30 units to win 2

+3.00 Win >> DALLAS -3 -110 // 3.30 units to win 3

Results:

WEEK 7 = -3.60 units (1-2 W/L)

OVERALL: +0.44 units (13-12 W/L = .520 pct)


Salvaged a little bit on the Sunday Night game. Not gonna play Monday night, would be taking NY Jets +9.5 or whatever spread but gonna pass on that.

[StackinGreen]

Week 7 - Sunday Night Oct.20

DALLAS -3 -110 // 3.30 units to win 3

At least you didn't go public play here. Good recoup

[hotcross]

Week 8 - Sunday Oct.27

ATLANTA +8 -110 // 3.30 units to win 3


I'll give some reasons for this pick, which people will probably look at and think its stupid. Seattle's travel schedule has been unfavorable pretty much all season long, but just look back a few weeks.... Week 4 played at Arizona, Week 5 went home to squeak out a 30-29 win vs the Rams, then Week 6 traveled to Cleveland and got the 32-28 win, then last game Week 7 all the way back home to lose to Baltimore 30-16, and now this week travel across the country again to play Atlanta. Russell Wilson is 2-3 W/L straight-up vs Falcons all-time (including 1-2 when playing at Atlanta).

Meantime Atlanta stays home for the second week in a row. Working against Atlanta is the obvious firstly they've been horrible, and secondly QB Matt Ryan is out, which brings in backup Matt Schaub, but could this bring a spark to the team? Schaub is 48-46 W/L career all-time, including 28-17 W/L in home games.

Injuries: other than Matt Ryan, the Atlanta roster is healthy. Seattle meantime does have a couple issues with the o-line and d-line.

[Hman]

GL today HC

[hotcross]

Week 8 - Sunday Oct.27

+3.00 Win >> ATLANTA +8 -110 // 3.30 units to win 3

Results:

WEEK 8 = +3.00 units (1-0 W/L)

OVERALL: +3.44 units (14-12 W/L = .538 pct)


Take the money and run. On to week 9. We're focused on week 9.