Hotcross NFL 2017 thread

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NFL season will be tracked.

WEEK 1

KANSAS CITY +8 // 1.1 unit to win 1
TENNESSEE -2.5 // 2.5 unit to win 2

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Week 1 results:

+1.00 KANSAS CITY +8
-2.50 TENNESSEE -2.5

Week 1: -1.50 units (W/L = 1-1 overall = .500 pct)
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WEEK 2:
DENVER +2 at -105 // 1.05 units to win 1

I might add a unit to this on gameday if Denver gets up to +3
Other games, obviously Raiders and Seattle should win, but man its a lot of points to lay.
Tennessee- want to believe they will bounce back but they just didn't seem to click at all week 1 and its dangerous to chase a team in poor form, while Jacksonville on defense looked like the real deal.

[Ryermkd]

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Week 2 results:

+1.00 DENVER +2

Thread: - 0.50 units (W/L = 2-1 overall = .667 pct)
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In response to Yoda vid, for NFL season my strategy is best, easy play each week, maybe 2 or 3 tops.

Rather than spray the board with volume, and deducting juice -units offset winners....Which can work if capper is seeing the picks clearly, gets hot and on a roll.

This week Titans would have added a win for me....in Week 1 they didn't so just didn't feel confident on them.

Denver was the game I saw being the easiest. Could I have added others, such as New England? Sure.

[Ryermkd]

Generally, less is more... you are correct.... but if you're a winning capper volume is what makes you money... no different than poker or stocks...

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WEEK 3:
CHARGERS +3 // 1.23 units to win 1

This week I'm of the opinion more upsets/covers by underdogs against the spread will occur, a la Thursday night with the Niners coming back to cover +3 vs. Rams. Although this week appears a difficult board to me overall. I think the Chargers get their first win on the season at home today against the Chiefs. Chargers have not looked terrific but also not terrible in their previous games this year, and have lost both close games, with 38 total points scored in two games vs. 43 scored against for a -5 point differential. This is a divisional game, just "feel" play here if you will -the game will be close so give me the points with the SuperChargers.

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Week 3 results:

-1.23 LA CHARGERS +3

Thread: - 1.73 units (W/L = 2-2 overall = .500 pct)
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Looks quite a few of us on the forum were duped into thinking Chargers would join the party this week as a dog who would cover/win outright, at home no less. Forced play when it doesn't work, genius when it works.

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WEEK 4:
CHARGERS -2 // 1.1 units to win 1
RAMS +5 // 1.1 units to win 1
JETS +4 // 1.1 units to win 1
DENVER -3.5 // 1.1 units to win 1

[Ryermkd]

2-2 at best hot cross buns...

[hotcross]

Need to go 4-0 just to get out of the red for the season

[hotcross]

well got the first 2, both dogs. So now you don't like my 2 favorites to cover?? probably right...knew this Chargers play was shaky but 1) do like their defense, and 2) just figured this might be the week bettors stay away and they win...why do I still make plays on that type of logic....trying to get back in focus, men thanks for patience.

Meantime what a paradise for many straight-up underdog winners today.

[Ryermkd]

You're good now the first two I thought were scarier...

Chargers are shit though...

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Week 4 results:

-1.10 LA CHARGERS -2
+1.00 RAMS +5
+1.00 JETS +4
+1.00 DENVER -3.5

Week 4: +1.90 units (W/L = 3-1)
Thread: +0.17 units (W/L = 5-3 overall = .625 pct)
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Oh well!

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WEEK 5:
NO PLAYS
No love for this week's card since the moment early lines came out.
Reading some of you here love the card, I just don't. Bankroll conservation play for me today. Going to gym soon and then will watch the games.

Here is what I've got in Beat the "Vag" this week, but not playing these beyond the contest:

KANSAS CITY -2 (-110)
ARIZONA +6.5 (-106)
DETROIT -2 (-110)
L.A. Rams -1 (-110)
SAN FRANCISCO +2 (-105) x3 Best Bet

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good No-Play this week
my Beat the Bag 0-4 with Sunday Night game pending
just didn't like the games this week

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WEEK 6

UNDER 44.5 -110 GB@MINN // 5.5 units to win 5

LA RAMS +2.5 -110 // 2.2 units to win 2

KC CHIEFS -4 -110 // 2.2 units to win 2

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Week 6 results:

+5.00 UNDER 44.5 GB@MINN
-2.20 KC CHIEFS
+2.00 LA RAMS
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Week 6: +4.80 units (W/L = 2-1)

Thread: +4.97 units (W/L = 7-4 overall = .636 pct)
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Didn't realize Chiefs were a big public play, thought Steelers would be. Overthought it....

you know -that I know -that you know -that I know

[Ryermkd]

Good stuff

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WEEK 7 - early lines picks:

ARIZONA +3.5 -115 // 1.15 units to win 1
ARIZONA ML+160 // 1 unit to win 1.60
WASHINGTON +4.5 -110 // 1.10 units to win 1
WASHINGTON ML+190 // 1 unit to win 1.90

might add units if the spreads increase as the week goes along up to gametime.

Like the Arizona team to win in London (and I have been riding with the Rams up until now).

Possibly more picks as we get closer to gametime.

[2daBank]

Oh shit I didn't realize that zona/rams game was London, jeez how many fukkin bs London games these pricks play now?!?!? Line makes more sense, I would have thought rams at home be good 4-5 point favs.

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From what I understand the league wants to have a London team permanently...not sure when that happens. But could you imagine? How are the West coast teams supposed to handle travel over there and vice-versa?

[2daBank]

I know, nfl continues to be nothing but money grubbing whores intent on squeezing every last dollar, product be damned.

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WEEK 7 - adding:

CHICAGO +3 -120 // 1.20 units to win 1
CHICAGO ML +130 // 1 unit to win 1.30

earlier picks for this week:
ARIZONA +3.5 -115 // 1.15 units to win 1
ARIZONA ML+160 // 1 unit to win 1.60
WASHINGTON +4.5 -110 // 1.10 units to win 1
WASHINGTON ML+190 // 1 unit to win 1.90

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WEEK 7 - adding::

PITTSBURGH -4 -110 // 1.10 units to win 1

Also might play Patriots for Sunday night game. Trying to decide how fishy the -3 line is on that game.

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WEEK 8

I am beyond tired of the constant flag-fest in this sport. Trying a new experiment this week. I'm playing the following 3 picks on very little research. Will tally up record after tonight's game.

TAMPA BAY ML -120 // 1.20 units to win 1
WASHINGTON +2.5 -105 // 1.05 units to win 1
DETROIT +3 +100 // 1 unit to win 1

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Week 7 results:

-1.15 ARIZONA +3.5
-1.00 ARIZONA ML +160
-1.10 WASHINGTON +4.5
-1.00 WASHINGTON ML +190
+1.00 CHICAGO +3
+1.30 CHICAGO ML +130
+1.00 PITTSBURGH -4
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Week 7: -0.95 units (W/L = 3-4)

Thread thru Week 7: +4.02 units (W/L = 10-8 overall = .555 pct)
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Week 8 results:

-1.20 TAMPA BAY ML
-1.05 WASHINGTON +2.5
-1.00 DETROIT +3
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Week 8: -3.25 units (W/L = 0-3)

Overall Thread thru Week 8: +0.77 units(W/L = 10-11 overall = .476 pct)
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Experiment in Week 8 of conducting no research didn't work at all either. Detroit was just ridiculous in the red zone and poor decision not to kick a field goal. Tampa and Washington at home also weren't even close.

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WEEK 9 - passed on the last week

I'm frustrated with the sport and not sure if I will have some spot plays as the second-half of the season goes on.

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WEEK 10

MINNESOTA -1 ; -105
2.10 units to win 2

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Week 10 results:

+2.00 MINNESOTA -1

Thread: +2.77 units (W/L = 11-11 overall = .500 pct)
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WEEK 11

OAKLAND +7 -115 // 1.15 units to win 1
ATLANTA +2.5 -105 // 1.05 units to win 1 (line as of now is +1.5 but I got it Saturday morning at +2.5 and that's why I'm showing my line. Still think it's fine to take Atlanta +1.5 or the moneyline if you like that side on the road against a banged up Seattle defense)

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Week 11 results:

+1.00 ATLANTA +2.5
-1.15 OAKLAND +7

Thread: +2.62 units (W/L = 12-12 overall = .500 pct)
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Stupid getting cute play Oakland vs Patriots in Mexico City game. Once the game started after the first couple hurry-up snaps by the Patriots, you knew this was the wrong play. Oakland made a couple drives early-on, fumbled, then let Pats march right down the field and score on them. Terrible pick.

Atlanta pick made sense given Seattle's injuries on defense, but even that game came down to the wire as Atlanta once again showed they are suspect closing out games against good opponents.

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Week 12 was PASS no plays
Week 13.....

MIAMI +1 -110 // 2.75 units to win 2.50

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Week 13 results:

+2.50 MIAMI +1

Thread: +5.12 units (W/L = 13-12 overall = .520 pct)
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Dolphins curb stomped Denver - also Denver just didn't bring any offense to the Sunshine State. Miami did play inspired from what I saw.

I didn't play a moneyline on this because it was Miami -103 within an hour before kickoff, so I figured +1 -110 was fine, maybe that was wrong. I wanted to get Dolphins at +plus money but it wasn't available until real close to kickoff and I already made the pick.

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Week 14 was PASS no plays
Week 15.....

TEAM TOTAL OVER 17 -115 CLEVELAND // 3.45 units to win 3

PARLAY 2-TEAMS: NEW ORLEANS ML -1136 & SEATTLE -1 @-110
risk 2 units to win 2.14

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Week 15 results:

-3.45 TEAM TOTAL OVER 17 -115 CLEVELAND
-2.00 PARLAY 2-TEAMS: NEW ORLEANS ML -1136 & SEATTLE -1 @-110
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12/17: -5.45 units (W/L = 0-2)

Thread:-0.33 units (W/L = 13-14 overall = .481 pct)
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I've gone really ice cold in all sports this week.