Lucky1's NFL 2016 thread

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  • Lucky1g
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 12-10-10
    • 5973

    #1
    Lucky1's NFL 2016 thread
    A month away from real football but I might play a handful of preseason so I'll get this going now. Posted at sbr Regularly my action in both college and pros since 2013. Here's my NFL #'s:

    2015
    75-61 55% +13.6 units

    2014
    92-67 58% +18.3 units

    2013
    36-27 58% +6.3 units

    flat betting each play to win 1 unit. I will use top rated plays as 2 unit plays as I did last year. Those were a disappointing 14-11 56% but I'll look to improve on those selective bets this year.

    starting NCAA thread too in appropriate forum. Good luck this year guys
  • McCarthyFam
    SBR MVP
    • 07-06-11
    • 1700

    #2
    Nice to see you back! Followed last year. Will be doing the same this year! Good Luck!
    Comment
    • oopfish
      SBR Sharp
      • 09-22-07
      • 381

      #3
      GL
      Comment
      • JayDr3am
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 05-06-14
        • 18260

        #4
        Comment
        • Lucky1g
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 12-10-10
          • 5973

          #5
          Couple I like tonight. First action of season.

          colts+2.5 even

          titans-2.5 -120


          ​good luck
          Comment
          • firekillex
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 09-18-13
            • 6420

            #6
            any week 1 leans yet ??
            cheers to a good season
            Comment
            • Lucky1g
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 12-10-10
              • 5973

              #7
              nailed em both. I like it. Back next time I see something I like....also, I've meant to do this in years past but never have. Will be tracking my ATS record if and when I play on games involving the bills which I will only do when I think its worth it(obviously)... I reside in western New York, home of buffalo bills training camp. They are my local team and I am a fan. I think I will do well with those picks

              NFL PRE-season now 2-0 +2.0units
              sides 2-0
              totals - -

              ***top rated plays 0-0 (2 unit)

              Games involving Bills 1-0
              Comment
              • firekillex
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 09-18-13
                • 6420

                #8
                I like bills shot at +120 over Ravens week 1 barring any injuries
                gl this season
                Comment
                • AlCar G.
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 01-04-13
                  • 201

                  #9
                  Lucky my friend; long time no speak. I hope you and your family have been doing well. Nice way to open up the season brother.

                  Quick question; what do you think of Buffalo over 8 regular season wins? I really think this is going to be a great year for them and all my capping backs up the wager, but I figured there's no one better to ask than you when it comes to the Bills. Thanks in advance for your insight as always.

                  FYI: I already hammered Oak. over 8.5 wins. This should be a huge breakout year for them (without getting into a long write up).

                  Good luck to us all!!!!!
                  Comment
                  • Lucky1g
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 12-10-10
                    • 5973

                    #10
                    Hey man. Good to see u poking around. Looking forward to the season

                    bills bet comes down to Tyrod staying healthy. I worry about him being injury prone. He's not built to withstand big hits. Small QB at Only 6'1 210lbs and will use his legs when things break down. He stays healthy bills will FINALLY end the longest playoff drought in NFL history. Thats also is a great angle to the bet on. The franchise is well overdue to make it to the playoffs. He misses any significant time recovering from misc injuries and we'll see more of the same problem that has always plagued the bills...terrible quarterbacking. EJ Manual has been another 1st Rd bust of a draft pick. Swing and a miss. I'm high on bills tho this year. I'd take OVER 8 wins.
                    Comment
                    • AlCar G.
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 01-04-13
                      • 201

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Lucky1g
                      Hey man. Good to see u poking around. Looking forward to the season

                      bills bet comes down to Tyrod staying healthy. I worry about him being injury prone. He's not built to withstand big hits. Small QB at Only 6'1 210lbs and will use his legs when things break down. He stays healthy bills will FINALLY end the longest playoff drought in NFL history. Thats also is a great angle to the bet on. The franchise is well overdue to make it to the playoffs. He misses any significant time recovering from misc injuries and we'll see more of the same problem that has always plagued the bills...terrible quarterbacking. EJ Manual has been another 1st Rd bust of a draft pick. Swing and a miss. I'm high on bills tho this year. I'd take OVER 8 wins.
                      As always Lucky thank you for taking the time to put some thought into it and giving an insightful response. Have a successful season my friend. I'm really busy with my business the last two years, but I'll try ad pop in from time to time to give you a hard time...Haha!!!
                      Comment
                      • Lucky1g
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 12-10-10
                        • 5973

                        #12
                        Tonight I like one

                        Eagles & Steelers UNDER 38 -110


                        Also lean Eagles but not betting the side, just total looks like the right wager here. good luck
                        Comment
                        • Letsgovols22
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 11-27-15
                          • 310

                          #13
                          Nice job Lucky
                          Comment
                          • Lucky1g
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 12-10-10
                            • 5973

                            #14
                            Cool. Nailed another

                            NFL PRE-season now 3-0 +3 units
                            sides 2-0
                            totals 1-0

                            ***top rated plays 0-0 (2 unit)

                            Games involving Bills 1-0
                            Comment
                            • KSmooth4U
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 12-01-13
                              • 588

                              #15
                              Tailing... I was on Philly +3... Stared long and hard at the ML +120 but decided to take the points... Wish I would of caught your under bet in time... But either way GL and lets get it...
                              Comment
                              • Lucky1g
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 12-10-10
                                • 5973

                                #16
                                Taking another one tonight. Romos back, Dak looked real good last week yada yada...

                                Dolphins+3

                                Good luck
                                Comment
                                • Penguin7
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 11-20-15
                                  • 102

                                  #17
                                  Dolphins down to a pk, nice bet. Wish I would have seen sooner
                                  Comment
                                  • AlCar G.
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 01-04-13
                                    • 201

                                    #18
                                    Good luck brother. I love the "games involving Bills" tracking....Haha!!! I usually do very well in football, but one thing is for sure; I'll never fade you on a call involving the Bills...lol.
                                    Comment
                                    • Lucky1g
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 12-10-10
                                      • 5973

                                      #19
                                      Loser last night. Updated #'s

                                      NFL PRE-season now 3-1 75% +1.9 units
                                      sides 2-1
                                      totals 1-0

                                      ***top rated plays 0-0 (2 unit)

                                      Games involving Bills 1-0

                                      passing tonight. Will have some week 3 action for sure and that'll wrap up preseason wagers for me. Will pass on Week 4 games and get ready for some real football
                                      Comment
                                      • Lucky1g
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 12-10-10
                                        • 5973

                                        #20
                                        playing a total tonight

                                        Falcons & Dolphins UNDER 42.5
                                        Comment
                                        • Lucky1g
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 12-10-10
                                          • 5973

                                          #21
                                          Playing 2 totals Friday night

                                          Panthers & Patriots UNDER 44.5

                                          Packers & 49ers OVER 46
                                          Comment
                                          • Lucky1g
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 12-10-10
                                            • 5973

                                            #22
                                            Updated. 2 pending Friday night

                                            NFL PRE-season now 4-1 80% +2.9 units
                                            sides 2-1
                                            totals 2-0

                                            ***top rated plays 0-0 (2 unit)

                                            Games involving Bills 1-0
                                            Comment
                                            • Lucky1g
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 12-10-10
                                              • 5973

                                              #23
                                              Split last night. Updated#'s

                                              NFL PRE-season now 5-2 71% +2.8 units
                                              sides 2-1
                                              totals 3-1

                                              ***top rated plays 0-0 (2 unit)

                                              Games involving Bills 1-0
                                              Comment
                                              • Lucky1g
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 12-10-10
                                                • 5973

                                                #24
                                                Tonight's play

                                                Eagles+2.5


                                                ​goodluck
                                                Comment
                                                • Lucky1g
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 12-10-10
                                                  • 5973

                                                  #25
                                                  Nailed it. Updated#'s

                                                  NFL PRE-season now 6-2 75% +3.8 units
                                                  sides 3-1
                                                  totals 3-1

                                                  ***top rated plays 0-0 (2 unit)

                                                  Games involving Bills 1-0
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Lucky1g
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 12-10-10
                                                    • 5973

                                                    #26
                                                    1 today I'm on.

                                                    Jaguars-1.5


                                                    Comment
                                                    • mikmik
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 05-13-12
                                                      • 5457

                                                      #27
                                                      Boom, what a comeback. Thanks G
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Penguin7
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 11-20-15
                                                        • 102

                                                        #28
                                                        hope things go this smooth regular season! nice work!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Lucky1g
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 12-10-10
                                                          • 5973

                                                          #29
                                                          Nailed it again. That's it for preseason bets. Up almost 5 units and real season hasn't even started

                                                          70% or better is just not realistic so I'll eventually drop off a bit but I think I'll have another fine season. I know what I'm doing unlike most posters on the forum. Hopefully my best season yet, maybe 60% for the year...that would be amazing. See u for week 1. Updated#'s


                                                          NFL PRE-season now 7-2 78% +4.8units
                                                          sides 4-1
                                                          totals 3-1

                                                          ***top rated plays 0-0 (2 unit)

                                                          Games involving Bills 1-0
                                                          Comment
                                                          • KSmooth4U
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 12-01-13
                                                            • 588

                                                            #30
                                                            Lets get it
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Lucky1g
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 12-10-10
                                                              • 5973

                                                              #31
                                                              Should I start regular season with a clean slate at 0 units or should I roll my preseason right into regular season overall #'s??? Hmmmmm. On another note, secured my limo ride and tickets to Buffalo Bills Home Opener in week 3. Pumped. Thursday night against the Jets. Should be epic. Be back with some week 1 action
                                                              Comment
                                                              • firekillex
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 09-18-13
                                                                • 6420

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Lucky1g
                                                                Should I start regular season with a clean slate at 0 units or should I roll my preseason right into regular season overall #'s??? Hmmmmm. On another note, secured my limo ride and tickets to Buffalo Bills Home Opener in week 3. Pumped. Thursday night against the Jets. Should be epic. Be back with some week 1 action
                                                                Regular season a whole different animal. For tracking purposes I'd say start at 0 units and just cash those pre season winnings out, even playoff bets are seperate for me... Goodluck this season and have fun at bills week 3, I'm going later in the year to watch them vs Jaguars should be a good time went to a Dolphins/bills game last year always fun
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Lucky1g
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 12-10-10
                                                                  • 5973

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Ok template for the season is set. Ratings haven't changed. All plays are 1.1 to win 1 unless otherwise noted. Back in here with week 1 wagers

                                                                  PRESEASON 7-2 78% +4.8units

                                                                  sides 4-1
                                                                  totals 3-1
                                                                  ***top rated plays 0-0 (2 unit)
                                                                  Buffalo bills games 1-0

                                                                  Regular Season --- 0units
                                                                  sides ---
                                                                  totals---
                                                                  ***top rated plays (2 units) ---
                                                                  "Circle the Wagon" plays
                                                                  (buffalo bills only) 1-0
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Lucky1g
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 12-10-10
                                                                    • 5973

                                                                    #34
                                                                    I've been looking at this season opener and decided to pass. Leans are Denver and under but I'm just feeling too conflicted about what we'll actually see play out so my play is a no play. I like the week 1 card a lot. Will probably wait till game day to place wagers and post my action. Goodluck if you play tmrw night. Will feel great to have NFL back
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • firekillex
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 09-18-13
                                                                      • 6420

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Lucky1g
                                                                      I've been looking at this season opener and decided to pass. Leans are Denver and under but I'm just feeling too conflicted about what we'll actually see play out so my play is a no play. I like the week 1 card a lot. Will probably wait till game day to place wagers and post my action. Goodluck if you play tmrw night. Will feel great to have NFL back
                                                                      Super tough game to gauge with Broncos getting a new qb then panthers coming with some rookie dbs as well this could be an ugly game I was leanin the under as well for a small play... I kinda like the panthers in this spot thinking cam would want some SB redemption but with kelvin still not 100% I'm not sure they'll be able to put enough points on the board unless sieman throws some terrible picks and gives them great field position for some gimme touchdowns.. Much better / easier games betting wise this weekend definitely agreed cya Sunday pal
                                                                      Comment
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