Little Larry's System Picks

[LittleLarryY]

Hi Guys,

I'm a long time lurker here and I've got a system that has had success the past two seasons. I'm going to be posting the picks in this thread for all to use, abuse, and probably fade. Either way, I want some sort of accountability. My system relies 100% on data and trends. There is not enough data yet for this season so I will not play any of these picks based off of the system but I have posted them below for the fun of it. I have many notes on these picks and they aren't for shit at this point. Week 4 starts the picks in earnest.

I'd love to hear your thoughts!

[LittleLarryY]

Just for full disclosure. This is based off of two NFL weeks that really didn't tell us anything.

For example look at Indy pick. No way in hell I really play that. Same with the pick against Pittsburgh.

[POOLSIDE]

The system spits out a pick for every single game? Yikes.

[POOLSIDE]

Try getting it to run the game 10,000 times or something like that, and then report the average win/loss margin. That way, you can make a semi informed decision as to whether or not you should even play that game. Weird that some of the totals are no play but none of the lines.

[POOLSIDE]

Also, that's either a typo or the system is abysmal. It has the Houston spread at -3.5 yet is telling you to play Tampa there lolololol

[LittleLarryY]

Also, that's either a typo or the system is abysmal. It has the Houston spread at -3.5 yet is telling you to play Tampa there lolololol

No typo. I can see you have selected the "abuse and probably fade" option from the original post. I'm also certain you didn't comprehend the part where I stated there isn't enough data to make these picks. I have a whole lot less of a problem with the TB pick than the TEN or STL picks.

[LittleLarryY]

Additionally, there is quite a bit of data that isn't included. Yes, the system picks every game. When enough data is compiled, the system returns units to place on the pick. These units are not shown for this week (they will be next week) as the picks are not being tracked until next week. The picks to play this week, assuming enough data, would be:

IND @ TEN - Under 45
CIN +3.5
CAR -3.5
NYJ +1 -- I would play this ML
TB +3.5
SD +1.5
ARI -6
SF @ ARU - Over 44
CHI +14.5
DEN -2.5

[POOLSIDE]

No typo. I can see you have selected the "abuse and probably fade" option from the original post. I'm also certain you didn't comprehend the part where I stated there isn't enough data to make these picks. I have a whole lot less of a problem with the TB pick than the TEN or STL picks.

No typo? Then please explain why the system is using -3.5 as the spread in the Houston/Tampa game when the spread has been -6.5 all week.

Stl is one of the better plays on the board in my opinion, and you could make an argument for Tennessee with the hook.

[LittleLarryY]

All lines were derived from the opener column.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/

[LittleLarryY]

Additionally, there is quite a bit of data that isn't included. Yes, the system picks every game. When enough data is compiled, the system returns units to place on the pick. These units are not shown for this week (they will be next week) as the picks are not being tracked until next week. The picks to play this week, assuming enough data, would be:

IND @ TEN - Under 45
CIN +3.5
CAR -3.5
NYJ +1 -- I would play this ML
TB +3.5
SD +1.5
ARI -6
SF @ ARU - Over 44
CHI +14.5
DEN -2.5

L - IND @ TEN - Under 45
W - CIN +3.5
W - CAR -3.5
L - NYJ +1 -- I would play this ML
L - TB +3.5
L - SD +1.5

[LittleLarryY]

Additionally, there is quite a bit of data that isn't included. Yes, the system picks every game. When enough data is compiled, the system returns units to place on the pick. These units are not shown for this week (they will be next week) as the picks are not being tracked until next week. The picks to play this week, assuming enough data, would be:

IND @ TEN - Under 45
CIN +3.5
CAR -3.5
NYJ +1 -- I would play this ML
TB +3.5
SD +1.5
ARI -6
SF @ ARU - Over 44
CHI +14.5
DEN -2.5

W - SF @ ARI - Over 44
L - CHI +14.5
W - DEN -2.5

4-5

[LittleLarryY]

Week 4 Early Lines Picks

[LittleLarryY]

This weeks official system picks. There were a lot of close games that didn't meet criteria. All plays one unit unless noted.

Point Spread

NYJ PK
JAC +9.5
CLE +9
GB -8
DEN -6.5
ARI -7
DAL +4 (Moneyline if you can get it. Systems picks Dallas straight up plus a safety factor)

TOTALS

JAC/IND - UNDER 48
NYG/BUF - OVER 45.5
PHI/WSH - UNDER 44
KC/CIN - OVER 44.5
MIN/DEN - OVER 43
STL/ARI - OVER 42.5


Any thoughts? Hate me, fade me, just be courteous.

[LittleLarryY]

W - NYJ
W - JAC
W - CLE
W - GB
L - DEN
L - ARI
W - JAC/IND Under
L - NYG/BUF Over
W - PHI/WSH Under
W - KC/CIN Over
P - MIN/DEN Over
W - STL/ARI Over

Yet to play: DAL +4

Week Total: 8-3-1 (72.7%)

Season Total: 8-3-1 (72.7%)

[LittleLarryY]

W - NYJ
W - JAC
W - CLE
W - GB
L - DEN
L - ARI
W - JAC/IND Under
L - NYG/BUF Over
W - PHI/WSH Under
W - KC/CIN Over
P - MIN/DEN Over
W - STL/ARI Over

Yet to play: DAL +4

Week Total: 8-3-1 (72.7%)

Season Total: 8-3-1 (72.7%)

L - DAL

Week 4 Total: 8-4-1 (66.7%)

Season Total: 8-4-1 (66.7%)

[LittleLarryY]

Week 5 official system picks.

Point Spread

TEN +3
CLE +7
CHI +10
NYG -6.5
ARI -2.5
PIT +3

TOTALS

BUF/TEN - OVER 42.5
CLE/BAL - OVER 43
STL/GB - UNDER 46
NE/DAL - OVER 49
DEN/OAK - OVER 43

Thoughts?

[albinoshark]

Profitable last week, can you speak to the data and the trends this is this based on?

[LittleLarryY]

In a nutshell, I have derived an equation built upon team based sabermetrics over the last four contests while removing outliers from the mean average. If a significant injury occurs, a separate formula is used in a similar fashion akin to WAR (but statistical not wins) to adjust the team ratings.

The results are my hypothetical scores, straight up winner, and its winning margin.

These results are compared to point spreads and totals with safety buffers built in to derive the play. If the margin crosses a threshold, the units played will increase. The buffers are stringent. Maybe expect 20 two unit plays throughout a season and < 3 three unit plays. For all intents and purposes a three unit play is a "lock". There were two 2 unit plays last week (totals) and they both hit. For the purposes of these posts, I have decided all plays are listed as one unit.

This same system can be applied to power 5 NCAA games in which the teams have had 4 common opponents. So late in season games and conference championships. Caution must still be taken and buffers are increased as ncaa is much more fluid than NFL. I suppose it could also be applied to other games outside of power 5 conferences but I don't have the time to gather the raw data necessary. I'm hoping to learn how to scrub data so the process may be possible and back checked.

[LittleLarryY]

Early games results:

Point Spread

W - TEN +3
W - CLE +7
W - CHI +10
Pending - NYG -6.5
Pending - ARI -2.5
Pending - PIT +3

TOTALS

L - BUF/TEN - OVER 42.5
W - CLE/BAL - OVER 43
W - STL/GB - UNDER 46
Pending - NE/DAL - OVER 49
Pending - DEN/OAK - OVER 43

Week so far: 5-1-0 (5 pending)

[LittleLarryY]

Week 5 so far:

Point Spread

W - TEN +3
W - CLE +7
W - CHI +10
Pending - NYG -6.5
W - ARI -2.5
Pending - PIT +3

TOTALS

L - BUF/TEN - OVER 42.5
W - CLE/BAL - OVER 43
W - STL/GB - UNDER 46
L - NE/DAL - OVER 49
L - DEN/OAK - OVER 43

Week 5 (2 pending): 6-3-0 (66.7%)

Season to Date: 14-7-1 (66.7%)

[LittleLarryY]

L - NYG -6.5

Week 5 (1 pending): 6-4-0 (60%)

Season to Date: 14-8-1 (63.6%)

[LittleLarryY]

Week 6 very preliminary picks.

Sides

ATL -3
BUF +1
MIN -4.5
CHI +2.5
TEN -2.5
CAR +5
BAL -2
NE -7

TOTALS

ATL/NO - OVER 50.5
CIN/BUF - OVER 45
KC/MIN - OVER 44.5
CHI/DET - UNDER 44
MIA/TEN - UNDER 44.5
BAL/SF - OVER 43.5
NE/IND - OVER 55
NYG/PHI - OVER 50

Again, very preliminary but those are the early leans. System picks will be finalized Wednesday/Thursday.

[LittleLarryY]

Week 5 so far:

Point Spread

W - TEN +3
W - CLE +7
W - CHI +10
L - NYG -6.5
W - ARI -2.5
W - PIT +3

TOTALS

L - BUF/TEN - OVER 42.5
W - CLE/BAL - OVER 43
W - STL/GB - UNDER 46
L - NE/DAL - OVER 49
L - DEN/OAK - OVER 43

Week 5 : 7-4-0 (63.6%)

Season to Date: 15-8-1 (65.2%)

Not too bad so far. Not setting the world on fire either. I'm used to seeing high 60's into the low 70's success rate.

[LittleLarryY]

Week 6 Official System Picks:

Heavy week of plays this week.

Sides
ATL -3
BUF +3.5
MIN -4
CHI +3
ARI -3
TEN PK
CAR +7.5
BAL PK
NE -9.5

TOTALS

ATL/NO - OVER 52
CIN/BUF - OVER 42
KC/MIN - OVER 44
HOU/JAC UNDER 43
CHI/DET - UNDER 44
ARI/PIT - OVER 44.5
MIA/TEN - UNDER 43.5
SD/GB - UNDER 51
BAL/SF - OVER 43.5
NE/IND - OVER 54
NYG/PHI - OVER 48.5

Good Luck!

[LittleLarryY]

Update through Thursday Week 6:

L - ATL -3
P - ATL/NO - OVER 52

Week 6 (18 Pending): 0-1-1 (0%)

Season to Date: 15-9-2 (62.5%)

[James J Kutz]

Doing a great job here Little Larry!! You should focus in the side plays of your system (9-5 with atlanta lost from yesterday)!!

[LittleLarryY]

Thanks JJK. The sides have definitely been performing better. I'm considering making the total plays have more stringent thresholds.

Good luck this week!

[LittleLarryY]

Some pretty good fade fodder this week. Terrible results.

Sides
L - ATL -3
L - BUF +3.5
W - MIN -4
P - CHI +3
L - ARI -3
L - TEN PK
W - CAR +7.5
L - BAL PK
L - NE -9.5

TOTALS

P - ATL/NO - OVER 52
W - CIN/BUF - OVER 42
L - KC/MIN - OVER 44
L - HOU/JAC UNDER 43
L - CHI/DET - UNDER 44
L - ARI/PIT - OVER 44.5
L - MIA/TEN - UNDER 43.5
W - SD/GB - UNDER 51
W - BAL/SF - OVER 43.5
W - NE/IND - OVER 54
L - NYG/PHI - OVER 48.5

Week 6: 6-12-2 (33.3%)

Season to Date: 21-20-3 (51.2%)

[LittleLarryY]

We'll try to bounce back this week. Thankfully, the system selected far fewer play this week.

Week 7 Official Picks

Sides
MIN -2.5
PIT -1.5
NYJ +10
CLE +6
TB +3.5
OAK +4
BAL +10

Totals
BUF/JAC - UNDER 42.5
NYJ/NE - UNDER 48
TB/WSH - OVER 42.5
OAK/SD - UNDER 47
PHI/CAR - OVER 46

Thanks for looking and good luck to all.

[James J Kutz]

I like the Jets play... This line is just too high!!! BOL Larry.

[LittleLarryY]

Results so far:

Sides
W - MIN -2.5
L - PIT -1.5
W - NYJ +10
L - CLE +6
W - TB +3.5
Pending - OAK +4
Pending - BAL +10

Totals
L - BUF/JAC - UNDER 42.5
L - NYJ/NE - UNDER 48
W - TB/WSH - OVER 42.5
Pending - OAK/SD - UNDER 47
Pending - PHI/CAR - OVER 46

Week 7 (4 Pending): 4-4-0 (50.0%)

Season to Date (4 Pending): 25-24-3 (51.0%)

[LittleLarryY]

Week 7 Results:

Sides
W - MIN -2.5
L - PIT -1.5
W - NYJ +10
L - CLE +6
W - TB +3.5
W - OAK +4
W - BAL +10

Totals
L - BUF/JAC - UNDER 42.5
L - NYJ/NE - UNDER 48
W - TB/WSH - OVER 42.5
L - OAK/SD - UNDER 47
L - PHI/CAR - OVER 46

Week 7: 6-6-0 (50.0%)

Season to Date: 27-26-3 (50.9%)

[House]

Larry Little > Played for the Phins back in the day lol ... doing great on the sides Larry , keep firing !

[LittleLarryY]

Thanks House! Week 6 crushed me. Good luck this week.

[LittleLarryY]

Week 8 Picks:

Sides
MIA +9
TB +7.5
CIN PK
CAR -6.5

Totals
MIA/NE - OVER 50.5
DET/KC - UNDER 46
TB/ATL - UNDER 49.5
SF/STL - OVER 39
CIN/PIT - OVER 48
SEA/DAL - UNDER 41
IND/CAR - OVER 46

Good luck this week!