TK & Stackin 2014 NFL Thread

[Tommy Karate]

initial gut says pats, but im not running well so who knows....
losing season in the NFL; not a good thread stackin....

[Tommy Karate]

Originally Posted by StackinGreen
Green Bay +7.5, 6 units
New England -6.5, 9 units

2 team 7 pt teaser, GB +14.5, NE +.5 --- Risk 6.5 to win 5

Green Bay to win by 1-6 points, 1 unit @ +500
=================================

great day!

[Trivial]

Seattle will win.

Cheers. Hope you are right. Seeing Brady's face as he loses the superbowl will make all my health issues go away.

:-)

[meader99]

Cheers. Hope you are right. Seeing Brady's face as he loses the superbowl will make all my health issues go away.

:-)

Physical teams have given the Pats trouble in the playoffs. The Ravens have gone to Foxborough and won and of course the Giants beat em twice in Super Bowls. Don't think Amendola and Edelman can make it through this game if they go over the middle.

[Tommy Karate]

this whole deflate gate controversy is not good for the pats; i was leaning sea anyway, now i may go bigger...
ive always done well with fading teams having off field controversy; this isnt good as its also bringing back the spygate...

[meader99]

this whole deflate gate controversy is not good for the pats; i was leaning sea anyway, now i may go bigger...
ive always done well with fading teams having off field controversy; this isnt good as its also bringing back the spygate...

Yeah, they are really giving it to tommy boy over this. You know tommy knew and/or was in charge of this operation.

[Tommy Karate]

Sunday 2/1_SuperBowl XLIX:

(20u) Seahawks (not booked yet)
(5u) Under Seahawks/Patriots 48
==================================
As i had mentioned, i leaned Seahawks but now this controversey surrounding NE solidified my thoughts on the game. Regular season, this would probably be around a 10u play, but i want a little extra for SuperBowl Sunday. I had said pre-playoffs that i would ride seattle heavy - they did burn me last week, but that comeback has me thiking this is a team of destiny to repeat. Normally i would fade a team off a hard fought comeback win, but the 2 weeks off couldnt have come at a better time. They obviously have the # 1 defense, and both Sherman and Thomas are practicing and playing next week. Seattle gave up just 3.4ypc vs 4.0 for NE, and this is how the seahawks should get it done; on the ground with lynch and of course wilson on the read option; i have a feeling he'll be using his legs much earlier this week. I'm a situational bettor, and this situation is what i salivate for. Every time you turn on ESPN, its deflategate; Brady and Bellicheck being questioned, and of course they know nothing. This is negative karma surrounding a team that has the lesser defense and thats enough for me. Pats do have a pretty good defense themselves, so i'll also take the under in a game that will be played on the ground. Expect this to be a very fast moving game, as i don't see either QB looking to test these secondaries a whole lot.

[KRIT]

GL Tk, I'll be on Seahawks myself. Seems like public loading up on NE after what happened in the conf. championship games. Public has been wrong on the SB last 3 years, hopefully it continues.

[Tanko]

Tommy... Agree with you 100%.

Never... I mean, never... mess with Karma.

[hey buddy]

On the Seahawks myself. When are you thinking its time to put the money down? Seattle money has to start coming in eventually right?

[meader99]

Seattle is now a dog. I can't see it getting to 3, but since they win outright, it will be nice to get them at + money.

[StackinGreen]

Originally Posted by StackinGreen
Green Bay +7.5, 6 units
New England -6.5, 9 units

2 team 7 pt teaser, GB +14.5, NE +.5 --- Risk 6.5 to win 5Green Bay to win by 1-6 points, 1 unit @ +500
=================================

great day!

Thanks. I think by far the best bet is the under. I'm going under 24 1H for 5 units and 10 units on the under 47.5 game total.

[StackinGreen]

Seattle/New England UNDER 47.5, 12 units

1H UNDER 24, 6 units

---
29-28 straights
5-11 teasers
1-1 parlays
4-4-1 2H
0-1 1H

-51.2 units

[StackinGreen]

I have some prop bets I'm going to play as well. Anyone have good inklings?

[Trivial]

Locked and loaded

Just put my bets in. Seattle ML (+100) and Under 48.5 (-115)

Here are some prop bets I am considering :

Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th
Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT
Longest Touchdown OVER 44.5 yards
Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5
Longest Field Goal UNDER 44.5 yards

[Tommy Karate]

anyone know what the langer is on?

im starting to get a little scared (always happens with 2 weeks off).....seattles defense is not as good as last year and the pats do have a pretty complete team. talk to me boys - im hanging it all on deflategate but now apparently it happens all the time (not just by NE).
public is all over NE and its good to still see it at PK

[meader99]

anyone know what the langer is on?

im starting to get a little scared (always happens with 2 weeks off).....seattles defense is not as good as last year and the pats do have a pretty complete team. talk to me boys - im hanging it all on deflategate but now apparently it happens all the time (not just by NE).
public is all over NE and its good to still see it at PK

He's on the patsies 27-17

[mlb]

Are you worried about that first 3 quarters for the Hawks at all?

Wilson isn't a QB to let prior performance bother him by any means, but the Pack did put together a decent plan to bottle everything up and throw through the middle and over the top and Wilson could not do that.

Obviously things changed as he game began to flip, but still.
Right after the games, I leaned Pats and said I would take either Colts or Pats, whomever won.....

Then I did a 180 during the week and really started to like Seattle. Something can also be said about them being in the underdog corner and no one talking about them.

[StackinGreen]

I just don't buy Seattle O. Could they win? Sure, but NE is more complete. Their D is pretty darn good. Green Bay D dominated Seattle at Seattle for all intents and purposes.

I like New England 23-13 or 23-17

[KRIT]

anyone know what the langer is on?

im starting to get a little scared (always happens with 2 weeks off).....seattles defense is not as good as last year and the pats do have a pretty complete team. talk to me boys - im hanging it all on deflategate but now apparently it happens all the time (not just by NE).
public is all over NE and its good to still see it at PK

Lang is on Pats of course, just like 75% of the public.

Staring at a game for 2 weeks will make you go back and forth. Stick with Seattle TK, they get it done.

[Tommy Karate]

nice to get blasted the night before the superbowl...
i am sticking with Sea for a dime; but full disclosure - this would not be a 20u bet during the season...

[meader99]

If you like Seattle in a close game, you can get Seattle to win by 1-6 at + 346.

[KRIT]

Some youtube porcupine that has predicted the last 3 superbowl winners just picked the seahawks

[Tommy Karate]

Sunday 2/1_SuperBowl XLIX:

(20u) Seahawks (not booked yet)
(5u) Under Seahawks/Patriots 48
==================================
As i had mentioned, i leaned Seahawks but now this controversey surrounding NE solidified my thoughts on the game. Regular season, this would probably be around a 10u play, but i want a little extra for SuperBowl Sunday. I had said pre-playoffs that i would ride seattle heavy - they did burn me last week, but that comeback has me thiking this is a team of destiny to repeat. Normally i would fade a team off a hard fought comeback win, but the 2 weeks off couldnt have come at a better time. They obviously have the # 1 defense, and both Sherman and Thomas are practicing and playing next week. Seattle gave up just 3.4ypc vs 4.0 for NE, and this is how the seahawks should get it done; on the ground with lynch and of course wilson on the read option; i have a feeling he'll be using his legs much earlier this week. I'm a situational bettor, and this situation is what i salivate for. Every time you turn on ESPN, its deflategate; Brady and Bellicheck being questioned, and of course they know nothing. This is negative karma surrounding a team that has the lesser defense and thats enough for me. Pats do have a pretty good defense themselves, so i'll also take the under in a game that will be played on the ground. Expect this to be a very fast moving game, as i don't see either QB looking to test these secondaries a whole lot.

booked @ +1.5/-120

[Trivial]

Heya TK - Who is the new chick?

Also - curious on you taking the spread. The spread hasn't mattered in almost any superbowl statistically. i.e. Even when teams are +4 like last year, the spread hasn't mattered.

In my mind, in superbowls either you take the favorite with the spread, or take the underdog Moneyline.

I can't remember the favorite winning by less than the spread ever.

[NBA Maniac]

Tommy Karate, KRIT, Trivial HELP here !!!

I want to bet 8 units on this game

I see some places with Seattle (-1), others (+1).
Wich number is the the key-number in NFL spread ??

Can a team lose by 1 or 2 ?
Few years back i read the magic number was 3....

[Trivial]

Tommy Karate, KRIT, Trivial HELP here !!!

I want to bet 8 units on this game

I see some places with Seattle (-1), others (+1).
Wich number is the the key-number in NFL spread ??

Can i team lose by 1 or 2 ?
Few yers back i read the magic number was 3....

It can happen that a team loses by 1 or
2 but it is rare in football.

I can only recall one game all season that a win was by 1 single point but that is off memory. Usually 3 is the key number like you said.

[bucket2233]

TK, I know you are on the Seahawks, but I wanted to just give some thoughts and interesting stats for others who may be thinking about what to do. Full Disclaimer: I am a diehard Patriots fan and I watch every game. I don't play them often, but today I am....

I mentioned a couple weeks ago in this thread exactly who the Seahawks played their recent "dominant streak" against and indications that they aren't quite as good as some may think. They didn't really do much to remove doubts 2 weeks ago. Don't get me wrong, I love the Seahawks, and if the Pats lose there is no other team or QB I would rather see win than the Hawks and Russell Wilson. I was all over them last year (I even hit a 20/1 prop on Sea shutting out Den in the first half lol). People are trying to compare Den last year and NE this year. The major difference between the Pats/Brady and Broncos/Manning is that the Pats are capable of morphing into a physical team and have the ability to maintain power run game. Manning and his teams are soft and have been/will always be finesse, IMHO. I think the Pats can bring a power run game similar to Dallas, who ran all over this team earlier this season.

Key stat that support the Patriots' run game:
-During the first 8 weeks of the season (before Brandon Mebane injury) Seahawks gave up 3.4 ypc on INSIDE runs (5th best in the league)
-Since Brandon Mebane injury (including playoffs) Seahawks have given up 4.4 ypc on INSIDE runs (8th worst in the league)

One more interesting stat:

In 2014, including playoffs, Russell Wilson fumbled 13 times (most in the league) and didn't lose a single one.... very lucky. I know that you can't really 'cap turnovers, but that luck is bound to change.

I know I'm not presenting all that much, but maybe it helps someone. I guess we'll see what happens. Good luck TK and good luck everyone else.

[NBA Maniac]

damm....
now don't know what to do...

[StackinGreen]

Lang is on Pats of course, just like 75% of the public.

Staring at a game for 2 weeks will make you go back and forth. Stick with Seattle TK, they get it done.

Yeah, Langer is hysterical, the play is the under, though I do admit I like Patriots. But not enough to touch it.

[Trivial]

I don't get this.

PK is -110 for Seahawks and ML is -120

Seahawks win (in my humble opinion).

Is this just a sucker bet? There is no possible tie in playoffs.

So why on earth would anyone take the Moneyline bet?

[Tommy Karate]

oh shit...chancelor looks bad in warm ups.

[Tommy Karate]

TK, I know you are on the Seahawks, but I wanted to just give some thoughts and interesting stats for others who may be thinking about what to do. Full Disclaimer: I am a diehard Patriots fan and I watch every game. I don't play them often, but today I am....

I mentioned a couple weeks ago in this thread exactly who the Seahawks played their recent "dominant streak" against and indications that they aren't quite as good as some may think. They didn't really do much to remove doubts 2 weeks ago. Don't get me wrong, I love the Seahawks, and if the Pats lose there is no other team or QB I would rather see win than the Hawks and Russell Wilson. I was all over them last year (I even hit a 20/1 prop on Sea shutting out Den in the first half lol). People are trying to compare Den last year and NE this year. The major difference between the Pats/Brady and Broncos/Manning is that the Pats are capable of morphing into a physical team and have the ability to maintain power run game. Manning and his teams are soft and have been/will always be finesse, IMHO. I think the Pats can bring a power run game similar to Dallas, who ran all over this team earlier this season.

Key stat that support the Patriots' run game:
-During the first 8 weeks of the season (before Brandon Mebane injury) Seahawks gave up 3.4 ypc on INSIDE runs (5th best in the league)
-Since Brandon Mebane injury (including playoffs) Seahawks have given up 4.4 ypc on INSIDE runs (8th worst in the league)

One more interesting stat:

In 2014, including playoffs, Russell Wilson fumbled 13 times (most in the league) and didn't lose a single one.... very lucky. I know that you can't really 'cap turnovers, but that luck is bound to change.

I know I'm not presenting all that much, but maybe it helps someone. I guess we'll see what happens. Good luck TK and good luck everyone else.

good stuff; now im really having second thoughts with all these injuries.
no answer for gronk now.

[NBA Maniac]

oh shit...chancelor looks bad in warm ups.

good stuff; now im really having second thoughts with all these injuries.
no answer for gronk now.

DONT you penetrate me now.... i don't know the game and teams and players.
i just put 8 units in Seattle.

[Tommy Karate]

Sunday 2/1_SuperBowl XLIX:

(20u) Seahawks (not booked yet)
(5u) Under Seahawks/Patriots 48
==================================
As i had mentioned, i leaned Seahawks but now this controversey surrounding NE solidified my thoughts on the game. Regular season, this would probably be around a 10u play, but i want a little extra for SuperBowl Sunday. I had said pre-playoffs that i would ride seattle heavy - they did burn me last week, but that comeback has me thiking this is a team of destiny to repeat. Normally i would fade a team off a hard fought comeback win, but the 2 weeks off couldnt have come at a better time. They obviously have the # 1 defense, and both Sherman and Thomas are practicing and playing next week. Seattle gave up just 3.4ypc vs 4.0 for NE, and this is how the seahawks should get it done; on the ground with lynch and of course wilson on the read option; i have a feeling he'll be using his legs much earlier this week. I'm a situational bettor, and this situation is what i salivate for. Every time you turn on ESPN, its deflategate; Brady and Bellicheck being questioned, and of course they know nothing. This is negative karma surrounding a team that has the lesser defense and thats enough for me. Pats do have a pretty good defense themselves, so i'll also take the under in a game that will be played on the ground. Expect this to be a very fast moving game, as i don't see either QB looking to test these secondaries a whole lot.

booked @ +1.5/-120

oh shit...chancelor looks bad in warm ups.

good stuff; now im really having second thoughts with all these injuries.
no answer for gronk now.

(40u) Patriots +1 (net 20u)

closing move at Pinnacle solidified this for me; seattle is too banged up and i see NE running the ball down their throat, and playing over the middle with Gronk...