TK & Stackin 2014 NFL Thread

[2daBank]

agreed on the cards and bears Banker & $G.

ellington is an explosive back who they apparently are going to use all over the field, and feed early/often.
the cards defense is supposed to be very good, so im not sure about overs with them. their corners (peterson/cromartie) are shut down, and they were the best in the NFL vs the run last year..

chi went defense 1st 3 picks, and will sutton is legit....they also signed jared allen and a few others, so their defense should be much improved. thinking the bears might make some serious noise this year if these rookies are live out of the gate

Don't get me wrong I luv zona's playmakers in the secondary but think they weaker up front, don't think honey badger will be full speed till little ways into season, and let's face it if ur d good these days mostly that means turnovers that lead to points, the good offenses gonna score most weeks in this league..

Think u prob too high on bears defensive potential, I'm kinda a bears guy cause originally from there and moms luvs them (I'm not really fan of any nfl team) follow them tho. The d can still be had and their offense is sick, luv everyone and wouldn't mind taking cutler late as my qb. NFC east and Norris both have bunch of charmin soft d's. Feel like they gonna or better set totals w those teams high..

[Tommy Karate]

Don't get me wrong I luv zona's playmakers in the secondary but think they weaker up front, don't think honey badger will be full speed till little ways into season, and let's face it if ur d good these days mostly that means turnovers that lead to points, the good offenses gonna score most weeks in this league..

Think u prob too high on bears defensive potential, I'm kinda a bears guy cause originally from there and moms luvs them (I'm not really fan of any nfl team) follow them tho. The d can still be had and their offense is sick, luv everyone and wouldn't mind taking cutler late as my qb. NFC east and Norris both have bunch of charmin soft d's. Feel like they gonna or better set totals w those teams high..

yeah, i would like cutler as well, but have to pad him with another QB late with his injury history - eli should throw for 4500 if healthy all year. hes a sleeper for me....tannehill might be this years nick foles running the same scheme philly did with lazor

look out for lamar miller - this is the year to take him at better value. would not shock me if he puts up 1500 AP yards and 8-10 TD's...

[KRIT]

yeah, i would like cutler as well, but have to pad him with another QB late with his injury history - eli should throw for 4500 if healthy all year. hes a sleeper for me....tannehill might be this years nick foles running the same scheme philly did with lazor

look out for lamar miller - this is the year to take him at better value. would not shock me if he puts up 1500 AP yards and 8-10 TD's...

Cutler will be good for fantasy, but you will have to live with a few of his loser donut games. The guy is just a loser and a headcase, but his coach is an offensive genius and he has the best weapons to throw to in the NFL. QB is crazy deep this year, I think you'd have to be crazy to take a QB early in fantasy unless it is 6pts per passing td or if one of the top 3 qbs fall. I've been doing mocks and seeing Ryan, Foles, and Romo dropping into the 8th-10th round range in 10-teamers. I have a pretty good feel for most the Qbs but still have no idea what to expect from RG3. If he falls late, I may have to pick him up as a boom or bust QB.

I agree with you on Lamar Miller. New system this year. No more of Mike Sherman's vanilla offense, they brought in Bill Lazor from Philly, so I could see Miami trying to use Miller a lot like how Philly used LeSean McCoy. Like Ellington from the Cards a lot too.

Ughh I can go on forever about fantasy football. I Eat, breathe, sleep, drink fantasy football.

[Tommy Karate]

Cutler will be good for fantasy, but you will have to live with a few of his loser donut games. The guy is just a loser and a headcase, but his coach is an offensive genius and he has the best weapons to throw to in the NFL. QB is crazy deep this year, I think you'd have to be crazy to take a QB early in fantasy unless it is 6pts per passing td or if one of the top 3 qbs fall. I've been doing mocks and seeing Ryan, Foles, and Romo dropping into the 8th-10th round range in 10-teamers. I have a pretty good feel for most the Qbs but still have no idea what to expect from RG3. If he falls late, I may have to pick him up as a boom or bust QB.

I agree with you on Lamar Miller. New system this year. No more of Mike Sherman's vanilla offense, they brought in Bill Lazor from Philly, so I could see Miami trying to use Miller a lot like how Philly used LeSean McCoy. Like Ellington from the Cards a lot too.

Ughh I can go on forever about fantasy football. I Eat, breathe, sleep, drink fantasy football.

same - my wife works from Thursday thru Saturday, and I'm basically sitting at my computer doing research every second shes not home.
only thing with miller, is now Moreno is activated from PUP. im afraid he steals passing downs, and a receving back is more valuable in my league then TD's. but, hes a great receiver and pass protector, so his current adp of 100 is a steal. i wont wait that long to make him my RB3 or 4....we start 2 backs and a flex, but usually my flex is a receiver since wideouts get 3 pts per 10 yards vs 2 per 10 rushing...

sell on foles - no way he has the same TD/INT ratio.....love Matt Ryan and Ben R...Kaep also should revert back to his 12 form with crabtree back, johnson on board and a weaker defense...sounds like they may throw a little more as well. Hyde should be good in standard leagues.

any idea who the 3rd down back will be in SF? im thinking Gore is going to be 3 down, but with all the injuries and talks of him losing 50 carries, hyde should also be in for a big big roll...

[Tommy Karate]

there goes one of my favorite late round backs:

Bucs rookie RB Charles Sims will miss 12-14 weeks after undergoing surgery on his right ankle.
The surgery will take place Saturday to repair Sims' fractured ankle. He may be a candidate for injured reserve/designated for return, or even the permanent I.R. list. The Bucs used a top-70 draft pick on Sims in hopes of utilizing him as a passing-game specialist behind Doug Martin. Bobby Rainey now becomes the favorite for change-of-pace duties, while Mike James should be a lock for the final 53. Martin's fantasy value certainly isn't hurt by Sims' absence. He could see a few more targets in the passing game.

[KRIT]

same - my wife works from Thursday thru Saturday, and I'm basically sitting at my computer doing research every second shes not home.
only thing with miller, is now Moreno is activated from PUP. im afraid he steals passing downs, and a receving back is more valuable in my league then TD's. but, hes a great receiver and pass protector, so his current adp of 100 is a steal. i wont wait that long to make him my RB3 or 4....we start 2 backs and a flex, but usually my flex is a receiver since wideouts get 3 pts per 10 yards vs 2 per 10 rushing...

sell on foles - no way he has the same TD/INT ratio.....love Matt Ryan and Ben R...Kaep also should revert back to his 12 form with crabtree back, johnson on board and a weaker defense...sounds like they may throw a little more as well. Hyde should be good in standard leagues.

any idea who the 3rd down back will be in SF? im thinking Gore is going to be 3 down, but with all the injuries and talks of him losing 50 carries, hyde should also be in for a big big roll...

Oh didn't see that Moreno is practicing. Yeah he could definitely cut into Miller's production. I could see Miami using him as a 3rd down back and goal-line back. Miller really struggled with pass protection last year, which is Moreno's strength. Not sure how much I like Miller now that Moreno is back, I was under the impression that Moreno would miss the entire preseason.

I'm probably going to get Ryan in at least one of my leagues. As long as Julio and Roddy stay on the field he should finish as a top 5-7 QB. Not sure who takes over for Tony G at TE though. Think the Oline has improved in Atlanta, that really hurt him last year.

No idea what SF plans to do with the backfield. Don't like Gore at all, but I've been saying that the last couple years and he still has been producing as a solid rb2. I think this is the year they finally scale back his carries with all the new young RBs.

[StackinGreen]

TK, how do you have time to do the stuff you do, anyway? Now, you're married and still gonna pull it off? You're a nut

Do you think Tommy sees a smartphone update late at night after a bad beat and says to himself, "fkkk" then says to his wife, "Honey, I need to get laid"

haha

[Tommy Karate]

Oh didn't see that Moreno is practicing. Yeah he could definitely cut into Miller's production. I could see Miami using him as a 3rd down back and goal-line back. Miller really struggled with pass protection last year, which is Moreno's strength. Not sure how much I like Miller now that Moreno is back, I was under the impression that Moreno would miss the entire preseason.

I'm probably going to get Ryan in at least one of my leagues. As long as Julio and Roddy stay on the field he should finish as a top 5-7 QB. Not sure who takes over for Tony G at TE though. Think the Oline has improved in Atlanta, that really hurt him last year.

No idea what SF plans to do with the backfield. Don't like Gore at all, but I've been saying that the last couple years and he still has been producing as a solid rb2. I think this is the year they finally scale back his carries with all the new young RBs.

philbin was quoted as saying miller has 3 things needed in a back; run, catch and solid in pass protection - not sure why he said that if he struggled last year blocking....miller is a high upside choice based on his adp and people looking at morenos 2013. this is not even close to the same scenario for moreno. just watch what ball does this year. but i would never take him with my 1st pick. maybe at 12-13 with btb picks.

Julio takes over for Tony G. Career year coming for Jones...

[Tommy Karate]

TK, how do you have time to do the stuff you do, anyway? Now, you're married and still gonna pull it off? You're a nut

Do you think Tommy sees a smartphone update late at night after a bad beat and says to himself, "fkkk" then says to his wife, "Honey, I need to get laid"

haha

its hard - shes cool but sometimes gets irked.
doing my autos preseason really helps - i dont spend that much time capping games each day. i will look into stuff deeper when i have more alone time...

[2daBank]

miller is turning into my new mark freakin ingram, of coarse ill roll with him again but expect to be disappointed as i am every year with ingram who of coarse is already looking great in yet another preseason

yea if i end up w cutler waiting past the likes of keap and rg3 who both i like a lot, just in mocks i found myself holding out and stockpiling position talent till it was too late to get them and got cutler. of coarse he prob miss a few gms so yea have to have a backup, the 1s ive chosen in mocks have been big ben, palmer, and johnny fb...palmer will prob be fantasy top 10 till that brutal 2nd half of the season comes along, big ben outta get ya 15-20 points on the few weeks you need him, and well if johnny fb starts he gonna score points, hell teblow scored fantasy points and he cant throw a damn ball.... even tho eli plays in a div i could throw for 4000 yards i honestly dont want any part of any gmen not named jennings who will be top 20 in ppr which all i play , possibly cruz if the price is right as he should get a ton of short passes and get back to making plays in space, and i guess id take a late round flier on the rookie rb but by time ppl see him in few more preseason gms his price prob be tooo high for me..

[Tommy Karate]

id feel a little more confident in manziel if he had gordon...
all he has is cameron - have a feeling ben tate flops as a feature....west is the back to draft in cle

[2daBank]

if i wa in a spot where i kinda had to take tate i would def reach on west, between the 2 i think you have at least high end 2.. manzel will get you points regardless of who on the field i believe, not saying i want him or that he wont go before i would take him but i wouldnt feel bad about him as a backup lotto ticket, if it doesnt work than grab palmer or whoever off waivers if needed//

[Tommy Karate]

I have a pretty good feel for most the Qbs but still have no idea what to expect from RG3. If he falls late, I may have to pick him up as a boom or bust QB.

After watching the Patriots-Redskins joint practices this past week, ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss came away thinking Robert Griffin III "didn’t look like the best quarterback on his own team."
Reiss is a wholly unbiased observer, so this definitely caught our eye. He thought Kirk Cousins "was better" than RG3, running Jay Gruden's offense more efficiently. Reiss says he spoke to members of the Patriots to double-check his observations of Griffin, "and then heard the same sentiment echoed by some others in the Patriots organization." Griffin remains a boom-or-bust 2014 fantasy prospect, learning a new offense where his running usage will be scaled back. Gruden wants to make RG3 more of a pocket passer. It may take time.
8/10/2014 11:11:00 AM

Source: ESPN Boston

[KRIT]

After watching the Patriots-Redskins joint practices this past week, ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss came away thinking Robert Griffin III "didn’t look like the best quarterback on his own team."
Reiss is a wholly unbiased observer, so this definitely caught our eye. He thought Kirk Cousins "was better" than RG3, running Jay Gruden's offense more efficiently. Reiss says he spoke to members of the Patriots to double-check his observations of Griffin, "and then heard the same sentiment echoed by some others in the Patriots organization." Griffin remains a boom-or-bust 2014 fantasy prospect, learning a new offense where his running usage will be scaled back. Gruden wants to make RG3 more of a pocket passer. It may take time.
8/10/2014 11:11:00 AM

Source: ESPN Boston

Sounds like we may see more of last years RG3 than the 2012 RG3. He does have a ton of weapons and an offensive minded head coach. I don't know how much they plan on running him (id guess not a lot) and using the read option. Really like the TE Jordan Reed on the Skins, should be a top 5 TE by the end of the year.

[Tommy Karate]

Guys - with the start of the season typically an unknown (certain spots we can find soft lines if we have a good read on the situation), what are your thoughts on doing an auto fade of a few teams for the 1st 2 games? as you can see from my comments the other day, im looking to fade teams running new schemes or even with new qb's to start the season. nothing huge, just 1-2u plays.

these are the teams im thinking of fading early:
-giants, skins, bengals, dolphins, bucs

[Trivial]

Guys - with the start of the season typically an unknown (certain spots we can find soft lines if we have a good read on the situation), what are your thoughts on doing an auto fade of a few teams for the 1st 2 games? as you can see from my comments the other day, im looking to fade teams running new schemes or even with new qb's to start the season. nothing huge, just 1-2u plays.

these are the teams im thinking of fading early:
-giants, skins, bengals, dolphins, bucs

Love the auto fade on dolphins, bucks and maybe even my bills.

The giants scare me from what i saw in preseason against the colts.

[Tommy Karate]

Season Predictions:

NFC East:
1) Eagles - 10
2) Giants - 9
3) Cowboys - 8
4) Redskins - 6

NFC North:
1) Packers - 13
2) Bears - 11*
3) Lions - 7
4) Vikings - 5

NFC South:
1) Saints - 12
2) Bucs - 9
3) Falcons - 7
4) Panthers - 5

NFC West:
1) 49ers - 11
2) Seahawks - 10*
3) Rams - 7
4) Cards - 6

NFC Championship ~ Packers over Saints
------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFC East:
1) Patriots - 12
2) Dolphins - 9
3) Jets - 6
4) Bills - 5

AFC North:
1) Steelers - 10
2) Bengals - 9*
3) Ravens - 8
4) Browns - 3

AFC South:
1) Colts - 11
2) Texans - 7
3) Titans - 6
4) Jaguars - 5

AFC West:
1) Broncos - 14
2) Chargers - 10*
3) Chiefs - 8
4) Raiders - 2

AFC Championship ~ Colts over Broncos

SuperBowl XLIX: Packers over Colts

[Tommy Karate]

SuperBowl Futures:

(1u) Packers +800
(1u) Colts +2000
(1u) Giants +5000
(1u) Saints +1000
(1u) Bears +2500

[KRIT]

I like the Pack a lot this year. I think they are the second best team in the best conference. Really just comes down to their defense and if they can stay healthy.

I agree with most your season total predictions.

You playing any of the dress rehearsal games today?

[Tommy Karate]

Hows your fantasy team looking? It's prep week for me, got two drafts next week.

Draft went great - a lot of guys fell to me, rather then me over-drafting the sexy hype picks. my league is very heavy yardage based, as TD's are not the most important thing. receiving running backs are gold. TD's can be very flukey with vulture scores by guys that avg 3 ypc. when we created the league, we didnt want guys like that to be so valuable...

Was a 12 team - redraft league. I had the 4 hole. I didnt plan on taking my second wideout early, but Jeffrey fell to me in round 3. I have 2 Top 10 (possibly top 5) wideouts.

We start 1 flex, so not sure yet who im using week 1. i wish wallace/miller would be showing more. that offense may not some time to come together.

QB: Ben R
RB: M. Forte, R Bush (P. Thomas, A. Bradshaw, L. Miller, M. Ingram, L. Dunbar)
WR: A. Brown, Jeffrey (M. Wallace, J. Matthews, B. Cooks)
TE: J. Cameron
DST: Bucs
K: Bailey

[KRIT]

Draft went great - a lot of guys fell to me, rather then me over-drafting the sexy hype picks. my league is very heavy yardage based, as TD's are not the most important thing. receiving running backs are gold. TD's can be very flukey with vulture scores by guys that avg 3 ypc. when we created the league, we didnt want guys like that to be so valuable...

Was a 12 team - redraft league. I had the 4 hole. I didnt plan on taking my second wideout early, but Jeffrey fell to me in round 3. I have 2 Top 10 (possibly top 5) wideouts.

We start 1 flex, so not sure yet who im using week 1. i wish wallace/miller would be showing more. that offense may not some time to come together.

QB: Ben R
RB: M. Forte, R Bush (P. Thomas, A. Bradshaw, L. Miller, M. Ingram, L. Dunbar)
WR: A. Brown, Jeffrey (M. Wallace, J. Matthews, B. Cooks)
TE: J. Cameron
DST: Bucs
K: Bailey

Nice looking team for a 12-teamer. Big Ben should be good this year. Big Ben to Antonio Brown is a nice combo. If your league is good for pass catching RB's, then you basically got the two best. Lamar Miller or Wallace will probably be your flex. I'm not as high on Jeffery as most are, but gettin him in the 3rd is good value. I still like Marshall over him.

[IrishLuck777]

in for the season, gl to everyone who follows! what is your average and max unit bet? thanks

[Tommy Karate]

in for the season, gl to everyone who follows! what is your average and max unit bet? thanks

i would say average will end up being around 3u per.
range will be around 1-6u normally, but my max can be around 12-15u on a handful of plays.

[Trivial]

Heya Folks. Have not had time to follow up. Are we doing an SBR Fantasy pool or something or has that fallen off the rails ?

Thanks.

[Tommy Karate]

Heya Folks. Have not had time to follow up. Are we doing an SBR Fantasy pool or something or has that fallen off the rails ?

Thanks.

fire was to set it up but i havent heard from him....
im def in...

[Trivial]

fire was to set it up but i havent heard from him....
im def in...

Gotcha. I guess I will wait to heae. No biggie either way.

[StackinGreen]

Yeah, boys, Packers back to the top ... first stop OVER 10.5 wins!

[Tommy Karate]

[KRIT]

Just starting to dig into the week 1 games. Initial leans: Dallas, Tampa, Atlanta, Miami, Chicago and Tennessee.

[IrishLuck777]

you expecting to have as muck volume in the nfl that youve had ncaa week 1?

[Tommy Karate]

you expecting to have as muck volume in the nfl that youve had ncaa week 1?

no way.....none of my NFL plays are driven off line movement. will prob have 6-10 plays this week but all small at 1-2u....
a lot of my college plays are set in motion off huge movement - i expect them to not trigger as many autos in week 2 - if im wrong, i need to adjust units, but i think lines will be a lot sharper this week. no way i can have that much in play again....yesterday was crazy.

[Tommy Karate]

Just starting to dig into the week 1 games. Initial leans: Dallas, Tampa, Atlanta, Miami, Chicago and Tennessee.

SF/Dall sticks out to me.....that should be a shootout.
glad its not a primetime game....dal getting points as well - that game screams 33-30, 30-27.
TB, Over NO, Hou, Under Rams, Under TB, Chi also stick out at 1st glance

[IrishLuck777]

no way.....none of my NFL plays are driven off line movement. will prob have 6-10 plays this week but all small at 1-2u....
a lot of my college plays are set in motion off huge movement - i expect them to not trigger as many autos in week 2 - if im wrong, i need to adjust units, but i think lines will be a lot sharper this week. no way i can have that much in play again....yesterday was crazy.

i checked in on your ncaa thread a few times over the weekend and couldnt believe all the action you had going lol how did you end up doing?

[Tommy Karate]

i checked in on your ncaa thread a few times over the weekend and couldnt believe all the action you had going lol how did you end up doing?

+9u for the week...broke even over weekend

[Tommy Karate]

Thursday 9.4

(3u) Hawks -5 (N12)
(1u) Over Hawks/GB 46