Betting Odds

[Aunty808]

LAD/KC game

Matchup scoring is similar to the Wash/Phil game. KC leans toward the underdog wins pattern, but not as strong as I like to see it.

Again, why? LAD opened -205 and now sit at -175 in the contest. Big drop.
KC opened +172 and now sit at +155.

No time to figure it out, but, I'm gonna take the KC+155 and will chance the UN9' in the contest.

If you can figure out why the odds moved, go for you.....no time for me to figure it out. Games starting soon.

[Aunty808]

Hou/Tex game

Matchup scoring says Texas wins. They are facing a SP with a BAA of .375, EV/HH% of 96.4/62.5%, and has a rating of 183.
Nothing to note, just doing what the matchup scoring says,
Tex-140 and taking a chance on the OV9' in the contest and for my Survivor pick today.

Also took Seager and Naylor as my 2 picks in BTS. Good luck to me and all of you!

[Aunty808]

Done for now.

I'm human, just like you, and I need to eat something before I pass out.

I also start work two hours earlier on Sunday and with all the games stariting early, I don't want to rush and do a sloppy job. There's always tomorrow.

Good luck with all your bets, be back tomorrow.

PS So many more games I wanted to do today, there were alot of good matchups..dang it! Why do we have to eat? I could've used that time to do another game!!

EDIT: After reading many forums and many cappers threads, I believe I must include my YTD record if I really want to call myself a "'capper". And while I'm here, with a little extra time, I want to remove all doubts from your minds about me using this space to gain views and "future clients" due to my capping.

I email my writeups to my daughter who lives with me. After my 3 month bout with Covid, being 71 years young, she moved back with me in January to keep an eye on me. So she reads the emails and tells me "Mom, you should be like the guys that sell their picks, or we should move to LV and then you can bet on games there". I had to bring her back down to earth....."Sis, this is a hobby, okay"?. She said ok.

There is ABSOLUTELY NO WAY am I ever going to turn picks for pay. Geez, I would feel so guilty if the pick I gave out lost. Trust me, this is just a hobby for me. I'm just happy that many of you can profit from it.

And another thing, if any of you want to use these picks as your own, feel free to do so, I'll take it as a compliment.

Here's why....
Many years ago, I did a "system" for the College Football Bowl Games. I posted it online in a forum for all to see. Well, long story short, someone copied and pasted it in her forum, calling it hers. That ticked me off to the max. I had a friend who moderated a forum. His name was Denny from Oklahoma. I told him how upset I was and he said that I should take it as a compliment because if my "system" was bad, no one would ever claim it as their own.

As for my YTD Record - I've won more than I lost.

[Aunty808]

Just went to check on my contest picks and I didn't submit the Wash pick after I posted the writeup here. Win or lose, I don't have Washington in my contest.

[Aunty808]

Whitlock

This is one reason it's so hard to win. You do the matchup for the SP, then he gets pulled after one inning. That's why I always say, it's better to be lucky than good . Still more game to be played. We'll see.

TORONTO — Red Sox starting pitcher Garrett Whitlock was removed after just one inning Sunday at Rogers Centre vs. the Blue Jays.

The team announced he has right elbow tightness.

Whitlock has gone 4-3 with a 5.23 ERA in 10 starts. He spent 27 games on the 15-day injured list earlier this season due to right elbow ulnar neuritis.

[Aunty808]

Recap July 2

Here' s how today's picks did. Boston won, KC won, the U9' loss and both Texas and the O9' lost. I ended up losing -$175 in the contest, bring my YTD to -$9165. Thank you underdogs for the wins! I would've been in the plus column had I actually submitted my Wash+220 pick. I googled to find out"said to take the odds of the team winning and multiply it by your bet). how much I would have won, $1100. That would have put me on the plus side. And if I'm correct, this is the third time I won but still lost cause I did not get the bet submitted. That's the bad new.

The good news is, I said I was going to take the Texas game over the 9' total. Like Wash, I did not hit the submit button cause my streak is still at 4 when I checked. I noticed sometimes when I do hit submit, it says it didn't go thru because the page was sitting there idle for over 15 minutes. I don't usually double-check it until later when checking to see the scores.

So for today, contest picks went 2-3 and ended up at -$175. Total losses is at -$9165. (All fake money)
Survivor sits at 4.
Seager hit 2/4 and Naylor 3/5. BTS now at 2.

Hope you all made a profit today. Taking the underdogs is fun when they win and even if the lose, a least there's no juice to pay (I'm talking to you Texas!).

Be back tomorrow.

[Aunty808]

Heads Up!

Just to let you know, I am working on the matchups and my wifi and power has been acting up.

If I am not back, that means I am in Judge Judy's courtroom, suing Septrum and HECO (Hawaiian Electric Co) for loss revenues and punitive damages for mental distress!.....LOL

Be back soon.....I hope...

[Aunty808]

Hou/Tex game

I just took Hou+110 in the contest.
Hou opened at -103, Tex-116. Contest now has Tex-130.

Javier is coming off two really lousy games with fantasy scores of -3 and -2. He's also gone four games without a win. He's facing Texas, who's got the best MLB batting average (.288) this season. He's 5-1 in13 career appearances (9 starts) vs the Rangers.

The scoring matchup is showing Houston as winner in the game. Texas scores are decent but not as strong as the Astros. Houston faces Perez. The Astro's current lineup is batting .297 against him. Perez has pitched the last three games with decent fantasy scores of 28, 31 and 25 but he's capable of pitching a -5 score game.

I'm betting Javier's drought ends here and he gets back into the W column.
Gonna just watch the O/U. No opinion.

Be back later.

PS I think Spectrum/HECO got wind of my possible lawsuit against them and fixed the problems I was having earlier. So far so good....no interuptions in service!

[Aunty808]

Cubs/Mil game

Short and sweet.
PASS

EDIT: I read something right before the game started and took the Cubs game UN9.
I might regret it, but bet is in. Was too late to post.

[Aunty808]

Atl/Clev

With the matchup scoring dead even, for tracking purposes I took the dog.
Neither pitcher has faced each other, no advantage.
Nothing in the hisory between two teams stand out either.

Clev opened at +132 at the fantasy site. I played it at +120 in the contest.
Atlanta is on a hot streak right now, opened at -153, now at +140.

I would usually pass on the game, but this is the first time I've seen a scoring matchup with dead end results, so I will take a chance and play the underdog.

Gonna look at a couple more games.
Be back later.

[Aunty808]

Calling it for today

I did a couple more matchups, but nothing stood out. I'll just stop here and go figure out who's gonna hit some balls for me today in the BTS contest.

On a side note, today I've been hearing a little voice in my head, telling me my tenure here is coming to an end. For some reason, today I am not reading the matchups as well as I did these past few days. Not really focused. I'd rather pass on a game rather than give a bad read/opinion and cause you all to lose your bets. I don't know, maybe it's handicapping burnout. I don't know.

That being said, I think I'll do the matchups until the All Star break and if something really pops up, I'll post it. But after the bread, I won't cap games for plays, I'll just look for hitters for the BTS contest. I am really going to concentrate on getting hitters for the contest after the break.

Mahalo Nui Loa (thank you very much) for letting me have this little corner, I reallly appreciate it. I've learned alot doing these matchups. But the Matchup Scoring is only one small part of trying to figure out who the heck is gonna win the ballgame. There's so many more tools and I just don't have the time to add them to my toolbox right now.

Good luck with all your bets, and remember, being good in this game is nothing, being LUCKY is everything.

signing out for now.

[Aunty808]

Upset Alert! Stl/Mia

I was looking for my hitter for today and I like to pick on Wainwright cause win or lose, he gives up a lot of hits.

The scoring matchup pattern is similar to a matchup I did with Colorado and LAD. Colorado had all but 3 negative scoring results. LAD had several Xtreme10 with the rest being all positive scores, except one. Looking at the matchups says LAD win, right? The final score was Col 9-8. There was another matchup that I did where the Dodgers had a bunch of Xtreme10's and I remember saying they were supposed blow the other team away, but only won by 5 or 6, can't remember.

This matchup has the Dodgers with everyone in the lineup with Xtreme10's and 9's. On the other side, Cards only positive player is Edman L+1. That tells me Dodgers should win the game without a doubt.

But, what gives me pause is that WWright has had 2 lousy games with fantasy scores of -10 and -12. That's bad. He's bad. But, he's 8-2 vs Mia in 16 (14 starts).

On the other hand, Luzardo has had to excellent games, scoring two of his best fantasy scores this season in his last two games, 50 and 52.

I'm gonna take a chance on Stl+160. They opened at +141 .
Use caution.

[Aunty808]

Fade me.....

Damn regression found me....

I took Colorado+165 and LAD-245.

So far, two losing days in my contest. Fade me.

[Aunty808]

Told you.....

Well, I hope you all made some moolah today, especially taking Pitt as the big dog.

I know I posted too late for the Colorado game because it had already started, but for those of you who knows in-game betting, you could've made some moolah on that game too!

I didn't keep a real number YTD record, so I don't know how much more I need to regress to the mean before I will start winning again.

And when it rains, it pours, Peralta, who I wasn't supposed to pick because of his current 9 game hitting streak, did not hit the dang ball......so back to zero.....again. It's ok cause I am really gonna get seroius after the AS break. My goal is to hit a 25 game hitting streak. My last long streak ended at 15. We'll see.

If I do any matchups, I'll enter them into the contest. I'll post them here for you all to fade until I get in the win column again. I'll do this until the AS break and then stop. And even then, I might not do any matchups. It's so depressing to lose after having such a nice winning streak. I guess all good thing must come to an end sometime.....

This is my record in contest since playing games using the scoring method. You can bet anywhere from $100 to $500. I just left it at $500 (fake money)for all plays. It doesn't matchup to what I posted here, I added some games not posted here and missed adding some games that were posted here. The contest record is accurate. My win, my losses.


June 25 5-0 +2875
June 26 3-3 -825
June 27 5-4 +475
June 28 5-3 +1525
June 29 3-1 +1660
June 30 3-2 +725
July 01 2-1 +750
July 02 2-3 -175
July 03 1-2 -500
July 04 0-3 -2225

I was waiting for it to happen and I knew it was going to happen, but what I would like to know is, how on earth does regression to the mean knows when it's my turn to stop producing winners and turn them all into losers?

When I used to do my NFL systems, it was easy to tell when it was going to hit. Every fourth win...bam! Losers.
With baseball, I don't know. This is my first season doing MLB. As you can see in the record above, seems like maybe every five or six days things turn sour. With the NFL, you got the fourth week out of the way and the next week, started to win again. It's been three days of losing....very different from NFL. I'll just have to see how regression works with baseball.

Anyways, I hope you all took my advice and faded the Dodgers.
Good luck with all your bets!