Betting Odds

[Aunty808]

Not really a newbie, but I have a question on betting.

Long story short, I am a 71 yr old (young!) female. I live in Hawaii and we have no legalized gambling here, altho I do see alot of locals in several betting forums giving picks and stuff. I think they have some kind of online account with their local "house"/bookie.

Anyways, I am playing the Beat The Streak Contest and I found a page that had the top 25 hitters to get a home run for today. So I used my secret method to see who I thought would get a home run. These 5 hitters qualified using my secret method. They only have to meet one criteria to make this list.
23.9% Machado +318
20.0% JD Martinez +400
19.8% Witt +405
18.4% Seager +443
20.0% Hernandez (Sea) +400
The percentage is the probability of getting a home run.

I read a little bit about payouts, but not quite sure.
So, if I put $100 down on JD Martinez at +400 and the bet won, would I win $400?

My sister is going to Las Vegas and I was thinking of giving her a couple of bucks to put in some bets there.
Just wanted to double check if I was doing the math correctly.

I just started today using the method on the Home Run Odds players so I don't have a good sample size yet. BUT, I use the the same method to find my BTS players and this is the first year I got a good streak going before it crashed and burned....15, my highest streak in the 10+ years I've been playing.

Ok, sorry I rambled ......if I find any qualified players for tomorrow, I'll post them here.
Thanks for your time,
Aunty in Hawaii!

[Optional]

If you bet $100 at +400 you would get $500 back for $400 profit.

Welcome to the forum and best of luck with your secret system.

[Aunty808]

Thanks for the reply, I really appreciate it. I just realized too, that the bet is against the pitcher listed. So even if they got a home run, if it wasn't against the pitcher listed, I lose. Nothing is an easy bet......and as for my secret method, it works until it doesn't. One thing I learned about betting is everything regresses back to the mean and evens out in the long run.

And my method was finding hitters with a high hard hit percentage, usually 45-50%, against a pitcher who had a high hard hit percentage, usually around 48% and higher. That method got me to a streak of 15 and now can't get another started. I keep trying different stuff.......again, thanks for the reply!

[Aunty808]

Today's Winners! Home Run Hitter that Qualified using my method.
(For BTS purposes, I just need them to get a hit.)
21.5% +365 Ohtani
21.0% +376 Longoria
19.0% +429 Diaz (TB)

[Josherzz1]

Thanks for the reply, I really appreciate it. I just realized too, that the bet is against the pitcher listed. So even if they got a home run, if it wasn't against the pitcher listed, I lose. Nothing is an easy bet......and as for my secret method, it works until it doesn't. One thing I learned about betting is everything regresses back to the mean and evens out in the long run.

And my method was finding hitters with a high hard hit percentage, usually 45-50%, against a pitcher who had a high hard hit percentage, usually around 48% and higher. That method got me to a streak of 15 and now can't get another started. I keep trying different stuff.......again, thanks for the reply!

Nice method, best of luck and have fun betting. My guilty pleasure is sprinkling a little bit on 1/2 point parlay cards and doing 10 teamer parlays during the NFL just for fun. One time I hit all 9 on a Sunday and then the 10th game was on Monday night football and I hedged to guarantee myself profit. It really is so much fun tinkering with different strategies in our mad scientist laboratories haha! Sometimes it's wise to have bankroll management and sometimes the spot is so good in your eyes that you have to take a shot and bet big. As long as it's disposable income and money you can afford to lose, with the caveat that obviously we are doing our research and trying to win, it can be a fun and very rewarding hobby/side hustle. Perhaps even more than that if you can be really sharp. Good luck out there!

[Aunty808]

Yesterday Longoria did not get a hit.

Today's Home Run Hitters
23.9% +318 Seager
22.6% +342 Jung
21.3% +369 Ohtani
19.0% +426 Hernandez (Sea)
18.1% +452 Garcia (Tex)

[Aunty808]

Everybody got a hit yesterday, although Garcia waited till his last AB to get his.
Today's Hitters
23.6% +324 Freeman vs Lynn
19.9% +403 Betts vs Lynn
18.3% +446 Pederson (SF) @Flaherty

I started this Home Run Hit List on June 10th and so far the record is 11-1. The only hitter that went ofer was Longoria.
Other hitters that weren't listed on the Daily Top 25 to get a Home Run, but fall in the same group, has been doing well too.
With the Home Run hitters included, the total is 55-9 (started tracking on June 1st). Alvarez (Hou), Perez and Vinnie P (KC), Freeman (LAD), Bichette (Tor), J Lowe (TB), Longoria (Ari) and AlonsoX2 (NYM).

These are the others that fall in the same group.
Tor/Springer
Tor/Guerro
Phil/Harper
Mia/Arraez

Let's get some hits today!

[Aunty808]

Yesterday, Freeman and Arraez didn't get a hit.

Today's Home Run Hit List
22.8% +339 Freeman vs Clevinger
22.0% +355 Betts vs Clevinger
21.4% +367 Seager vs Detmers
19.5% +413 Jung vs Detmers

Goldy almost made the cut, but fell into another group that does well. Time pemitting, I'll list that group starting today.
20.3% +393 Goldy vs DeSclafani

Will add the rest later.

Edit:
Here's the rest...
Tex/Garcia
Phil/Harper
Ariz/Longoria
Tor/Springer
Tor/Guerro
Balt/Henderson

There were no other hitters that fell into the same group as Goldy, who got his hit today.
============
On a side note, my current streak is at 8, my highest for this year is 15.
I target my Pitcher by looking at real stats and then find hitters using fantasy game simulations/stats.
There's still a lot of season left, anyone can play....grand prize is $5.6Million. Would be nice to have members here play and there's a function on the app to join/create groups. It would be fun to see someone here win it!
I paid $75 to join a group that I belonged to last year, longest streak wins. I think the top prize is around $8K. It's a private group with 154. The longest streak in that group is 23. Anyways.....nuff rambling.

Ok guys, go hit the ball!!!!.....please?

[Aunty808]

This is the update of today's hitters.
I used to post at another discussion board, but stopped because I felt like I always jinxed myself when I posted there.
Well, today I went back and tried again, to share my list. Below is a C/P from my post there.

Update:
I had second thoughts of posting here again, as I've always said I jinx myself when I do. My streak of 8 went down the toilet, and geez, my list of hitters couldn't hit the side of a barn today. I constantly remind myself that posting their names in this little box, on this discussion board/forum, has no bearing on whether or not they hit the ball or not. But, sometimes I really have my doubts........it's a conspiracy...lol.
One of my rules is not to pick someone with a streak of 5 or more because, living proof, Betts at 7 went ofer today. Another rule of mine is to stay away from the Suggested List, living proof again, Freeman...he went ofer today too. Texans Seager and Jung got their hits, tho Jung made us wait till the end of the game to get his.
The other group, Henderson had his reason for going ofer, his hitting streak was at 6. Perez got cheated out of his AB's cause he got PH after only one AB without a hit. Garcia Harper and Guerro should donate their salary for today because they sure as heck didn't earn it. Longoria and Springer can keep their paychecks today. At least they hit the ball.
Ok, back to square one.....again. Let's see who's gonna hit the ball tomorrow.....

[Aunty808]

Today's Home Run Hit List (Group1)
Balt/Hays
LAD/Freeman
LAD/Betts
Tex/Seager
LAA/Ohtani
Meet Criteria but not on daily Top 25 Home Run list (Group 2)
Tor/Springer
Tor/Guerro
I just did the morning game to get this up. Gonna do the rest of the games now and add to the list later.

[Aunty808]

Update: June 15
Nothing to add. I target certain games and just do those. My Method is too time consuming, as I do everything manually, old school..paper and pencil.
Since I had some extra time, I decided to look over all the players that made the above list since June 1st. I did some research to see what they all had in common to get on the lists. What I found was everyone had a HH% (Hard Hit percentage) above the league average (36.1%), with the one exception, Arraez (23.7%).
So with the extra time , I looked at pitchers who had a high HH% and used my Method to find potential winners. To qualify, matchup using method had to be a positive number. Below is the hit list.
Remember, a pitcher with a high HH% is NOT GOOD. A hitter with a high HH% is GOOD.

Since I have time today, I will list the numbers individually. I'll try to do it daily but it takes up alot of my time so will do it time permitting.


Today's results in (xx)
Balt/Kikuchi 46.4%
51.2% Henderson (1/4)
46.4% Santander (2/3)45.1% McCann (1/4)
45.0% Urias (0/4)
43.5% Hays (2/5) Home Run Hit List

LAD/Cease 48.0%
53.8% JD Mart
51.9% Peralta
47.9% Muncy
46.6% Betts (Home Run List)
44.8% Freeman (Home Run List)
ok people, please hit the ball!! TIA
Edit: format was terrible, cleaned it up.

[Aunty808]

Today's HR List
LAA/Ohtani
Tex/Seager
Group2
Balt/Henderson

That's it for now. I am going thru the entire schedule and will only do my Method matchup with players having a high HH%. If matchup scores a positive number, it's a good chance for the hitter to get a hit, not guaranteed 100%, but just a better chance to get a hit.
I did the early game and these are the hitters with a positive number.

Balt- O'Hearn, Santander, Henderson

Cubs- Wisdom, Suzuki, Mancini, Swanson. Hoerner does not qualify as a HH% player, but is a popular pick so I ran his match and had a positive number.
Will do the rest and be back later.

[Aunty808]

Today's HR List
LAA/Ohtani
Tex/Seager
Group2
Balt/Henderson

That's it for now. I am going thru the entire schedule and will only do my Method matchup with players having a high HH%. If matchup scores a positive number, it's a good chance for the hitter to get a hit, not guaranteed 100%, but just a better chance to get a hit.
I did the early game and these are the hitters with a positive number.

Balt- O'Hearn, Santander, Henderson

Cubs- Wisdom, Suzuki, Mancini, Swanson. Hoerner does not qualify as a HH% player, but is a popular pick so I ran his match and had a positive number.
Will do the rest and be back later.

Here's the rest....
Group 2
Col/Grichuk
KC/Witt
Clev/Nayor
LAD/Betts
LAD/Freeman

I did as many matchups as I could. Tried to do the ones with the higher HH%.
The lineups are usually not confirmed so I use the default by Pitcher's Hand lineups. Check to see if players are in confirmed lineups.
Listed below are all the players with a high HH% with positive matchup according to my Method.

Mia- Cooper/Soler/De La Cruz/Sanchez
Wash- Meneses
Stl- Goldy/Walker/Gorman/Knizner/Carlson/Contreras
NYM- Vientos/Pham/Vogelbach/Baty/Nimmo/Lindor
NYY- Bauers/Lemahieu/McKinney/Calhoun/Rizzo
Bos- Devers/Casas/Duran/Yoshida/Turner/Verdugo
Col- McMahon/Jones/Grichuk/Diaz
Atl- Olson/Acuna/Hariis/Arcia/Riley/Murphy
Tor- Clement/Chapman/Vlad/Bichette/Jansen
Tex- Seager/Garcia/Jung/Tavares/Lowe/Heim
Cinn- McLain/India/Steer
LAA- Trout/Ohtani/Drury/Renfroe/Ward
KC- Garcia/Melendez/Witt
Clev- Naylor/Rosario/Ramirez
Ariz- Gurriel
SF- Slater/Pederson/Yast/Conforto/Wade
LAD- JD Mart/ Peralta/Muncy/Betts/Freeman/Smith
CWS- Vaughn
Sea- Rodriguez/Suarez

[Aunty808]

Yesterday's results were kinda disppointing to me. Only a little over 60% of the hitters got hits. I expected a higher percentage. What I did find was a group of hitters that went 16-3 for a 84.2%.

The group is all the players that produced a negative number using my Method. I was sorta watching that group because I noticed that alot of them were getting hits...and a few were home runs. Earlier in the season, about half of the hitters got hits. I don't know if it's regression, but now, almost all of the group get their hits, like yesterday.

Today, Detroit faces DeLeon. I did the matchup and every one of the players fall in the negative group. Usually there's one to four, rarely the whole lineup. The last time that happened was on June 6th when Oakland played Pittsburgh facing Keller. I remember telling my friend who plays BTS that Keller was going to throw a no hitter because the whole lineup came up with negative matchups. Well, what do you think happened? Oakland won the game 11-2 and got 15 hits. Not saying it's going to happen today with Detroit, because Minnesota is facing Wentz who has a .302 BAA and a HH% of 45.4%. But, who knows?

Getting to the lists for today.
Home Run Hit List
Phil/Harper
LAA/Ohtani (riding a 13 game hitting streak)
LAD/Betts (riding a 10 game hitting streak)
LAD/Freeman

I did a couple of random matchups and these qualify for Group 2.
Mia/Arraez
Tex/Seager.

I'll be back later with the rest....I'm having a hard time focusing on baseball today...don't know why.

[Aunty808]

Yesterday's results were kinda disppointing to me. Only a little over 60% of the hitters got hits. I expected a higher percentage. What I did find was a group of hitters that went 16-3 for a 84.2%.

The group is all the players that produced a negative number using my Method. I was sorta watching that group because I noticed that alot of them were getting hits...and a few were home runs. Earlier in the season, about half of the hitters got hits. I don't know if it's regression, but now, almost all of the group get their hits, like yesterday.

Today, Detroit faces DeLeon. I did the matchup and every one of the players fall in the negative group. Usually there's one to four, rarely the whole lineup. The last time that happened was on June 6th when Oakland played Pittsburgh facing Keller. I remember telling my friend who plays BTS that Keller was going to throw a no hitter because the whole lineup came up with negative matchups. Well, what do you think happened? Oakland won the game 11-2 and got 15 hits. Not saying it's going to happen today with Detroit, because Minnesota is facing Wentz who has a .302 BAA and a HH% of 45.4%. But, who knows?

Getting to the lists for today.
Home Run Hit List
Phil/Harper
LAA/Ohtani (riding a 13 game hitting streak)
LAD/Betts (riding a 10 game hitting streak)
LAD/Freeman

I did a couple of random matchups and these qualify for Group 2.
Mia/Arraez
Tex/Seager.

I'll be back later with the rest....I'm having a hard time focusing on baseball today...don't know why.

Fine tuned the players, added another criteria, mainly to save time. Too many matchups to do with a full schedule.
Still using the HH%, now with added criteria.

Det- nada
Minn-Jeffers/Solano

going to do the rest now.

[Aunty808]

Late games...
Group 2
Bos/Devers

The rest....(negative matchup)
TB-Diaz/Arozarena/(Raley/Bethancourt)
SD-Soto/Machado/(Sanchez/Cruz/Tatis/Grisham)
NYY-Stanton/Donaldson/Bauers/Lemahieu/Calhoun/(Higashioka)
Bos-Devers/Casas/Yoshida/(Duran)
SF-(Davis/Slater/Bailey/Pederson/Yast)
LAD-JD Mart/Betts/Freeman/Smith
Clev-Naylor/Rosario/Freeman/Ramirez/(Arias)
Ariz-Longoria/Rivera/Gurriel/Smith/Carroll/Marte

That's it for today.

[Aunty808]

June 18 Happy Father's Day !

Happy Father's Day to all!
Here's today's lists....

Home Run Hit List
(100% yesterday)

Balt- Henderson @Taillon
Mia- Soler @Corbin
LAA- Ohtani @Greinke
Tex- Seager vs Bassitt
SF- Pederson @Gonsolin
LAD- Betts vs Webb
LAD- Freeman vs Webb

There is only 1 negative matchup for now.
This group went 10-4 yesterday (71.4%)
LAD- Outman

Games start early today. Gonna do more matchups, but will probably just post to track as games will have started.

Very interesting thing happened yesterday. Remember Detroit and the all negative matchups? Well, because three of the SF matchups were negative, I did the whole lineup. Everyone except one, who was a neutral 0, were negative. And with this game, it was a repeat of the Oak/Pitt game on June 6th. The score was SF 15-0 and SF had 17 hits!
If a lineup comes up all negative, I'll post it here. Someone can make a little money betting these games!

[Aunty808]

Here are today's games with negative lineups.
Col @Atl
Colorado's lineup all negative.
CWS @Sea
CWS's lineup all negative.

Let's see how they turn out.

[Aunty808]

Today's Lists
Home Run Hit List(Top 25)
Stl/Arenado
Bos/Devers
NYM/AlonsoKC/Perez
Group 2 (Not on Daily Top 25 )
Mia/Arraez

Hitters that Met 2 Criteria for Method Matchups
(Negative Matchups )
Stl- Walker/Donovan
Wash- Meneses (Adams)
Be back with the rest.
===================
The rest
Group 2 (Not on Daily Top 25)
Tor/Vlad
Col/Grichuk
Tex/Seager
Bos/Yoshida



Hitters that Met 2 Criteria for Method Matchups
(Negative Matchups )
KC-Witt (Melendez/Garcia)
Det-Ibanez/Rogers/Torkelson/Carpenter
Tor- Chapman/Bichette
Mia- Cooper/Soler/DeLaCruz/Wendle/Stalling (Sanchez)
Cubs- Suzuki/Morel/Swanson
Pitt- Reynolds/Hayes/McCutchen/Joe/Marcano (Palacios/Suwinski)
Col- McMahon/Jones
Cinn- DeLaCruz/McLain/India/Steer
Bos- Casas/Verdugo (Duran/Wong)
Minn- Kirilloff (Gallo extreme negative matchup)
NYM- Pham/Lindor (Vogelbach/Baty/Nimmo)
Hou- Tucker (Diaz)
Tex- Garcia/Jung/Duran/Taveras/Lowe (Garver)
CWS- Jimenez/Vaughn (Burger)
Ariz- Gurriel/Walker/Carroll (Rivera)
Mil- Yelich (Caratini)

didn't do the SD/SF game yet, waiting for confirmed lineups.

[Aunty808]

June 19 Results

Results for today will be listed by Groups, with only the hitters that didn't get hits listed
.Going forward, I am going to list the results by groups. I separate the matchups by scores.The First Group is the Home Run Hit List +Group 2.The Second Group scored a positive matchups for hitters and a negative matchup for the pitcher, scoring in favor of hitters. TheThird Group scored a negative matchup for hitters and a negative matchup for pitchers, with the matchup scoring in the hitters favor.The Fourth Group of hitters all scored negative matchups. And the Fifth Group are the misfit scoring, with the scoring in favor of the hitter. I also do random matchups of the popular picks that do not meet the 2 required criteria. Maybe I'll throw them in a separate group.

Group One 6-3 (66.6%)
Devers and Vlad were the only 2 in this group that didn't get hits.

Group Two 18-6 (75%)
Gorman, Chapman, Joe, Torkelson, Morel and McLain didn't get hits.

Group Three 27-4 (87%)
Marcano(Pitt), Kirilloff, Tucker and Pederson didn't get hits.

Group Four 13-8 (61.9%)
Sanchez (SD), Grisham, Duvall (Bos), Melendez, Nimmo, Rivera (Ariz), Conforto and Wiemer went hitless.

Group Five 6-0 (100%)
The Misfits all got hits. They were Walker(Stl), Wendle, Stalling (Mia),Reynolds (Pitt), Jones (Col) and DeLaCruz (Cinn).

[Aunty808]

June 20, 2023 Tuesday

Starting today, I will only be posting the qualified hitters in games that I target. I looked over the entire list and that is too much to type.So , the Home Run Hit List will always include everyone from the entire schedule, separated into the two groups.


Home Run Top 25 List (GroupA)
Balt/Henderson
Stl/Arenado
LAD/Freeman
Mia/Soler
Tex/Seager


Others (Group B)
KC/Perez
Bos/Devers
Bos/Yoshida
TB/Diaz
NYM/Lindor
Clev/Naylor
I'm thinking maybe today is to going be a regression day because the scores are different in several matchups. We'll see.


Group 2
Raley, Yelich and Contreras(Mil)
Group3
Arozarena, Ramirez(TB), Cooper, DeLaCruz(Mia) and Rosario (Clev).
Group 4
Arraez and DeLaCruz (Cinn).
Group 5
Bethancourt and McLain.


Popular Picks
J Lowe (TB), Franco, India, Steer, Newman, Wiemer and Miller (Mil).

[Aunty808]

June 21 Wednesday

I tried something different today because of so many early games. I took the top 64 hitters that met my Methods criteria. I'll just call them the "Heavy Hitters". It will be interesting to see the results of the different groups.
And like yesterday' Home Run Hitters, the numbers look the same so maybe regression not over yet. Yesterday that group hit only 50%, the lowest since I started tracking.




Today's GroupsGroup 1
(A)HomeRun Top 25
NYM/Alonso
Phil/Harper
(B) The rest
TB/Diaz
Tor/Vlad
LAA/Ohtani
Bos/Devers
LAD/Betts
Balt/Henderson
Clev/Naylor
KC/Witt
LAD/Freeman
Mia/Arraez (not a qualifier, just popular pick)


Group 2
KC/Melendez
Mil/Yelich
Sea/Rodriquez
Tex/Garcia
Pitt/Reynolds
Col/McMahon
Bos/Casas
Oak/Rooker
Stl/Gorman
Sea/Kelenic
SD/Tatis
Pitt/Suwinski
Hou/Tucker
Oak/Noda
Stl/Contreras
Sea/Suarez
Bos/Turner
Tex/Seager
Det/Torkelson
CWS/Vaughn


Group3
Atl/Acuna
Atl/Olson
Tor/Chapman
Stl/Goldy
SD/Soto
LAD/JD Mart
Mia/Arozarena
Cubs/Suzuki
Atl/Murphy
SF/Davis
Phil/Schwarber
LAA/Trout
Tex/Jung
NYM/Lindor
Atl/Riley
Sea/Hernandez
Ariz/Carroll
LAA/Ward
LAD/Muncy
Tex/Taveras
LAA/Renfroe
Ariz/Marte


Group4
Phil/Marsh
SD/Grisham
NYM/Nimmo
Balt/Hays
NYY/Lemahieu
KC/Perez
LAA/Drury
Mia/Soler


Group5
Piit/Hayes

[Aunty808]

Like clockwork, regression hit hard today.
Group1-9-2 (81.8%)
Nice bounce back after yesterday's regression. Vlad and Ohtani were the two that couldn't hit the ball.

Group 2- 7-9 (43.7%)
These players all had matchups in their favor (a positve matchup). Rodriquez/Sea, McMahon, Gorman, Tatis, Suwinski,Tucker, Contreras/Stl, Seager and Torkelson couldn't find the ball today.

Group 3- 7-8 (46.6%)
This group consists of a bad matchup for the hitter and a bad matchup for the pitcher, but the match score favors the hitters.
Goldy/, Trout, Jung, Hernandez/Sea, Carroll, Ward, Taveras and Marte/Ariz all had bad hair days and couldn't hit the ball.....sigh....

Group 4- 3-4 (42.8%)

Group 5- 0-1 (0%)
I'm guessing Mr. Hayes didn't want to make his teammates to feel bad, so he just joined the gang and refused to hit the ball. The lineup really looked ugly today, no McCutchen and no Reynolds.Oh well.....

I should mention here that when I do these matchups, they tell a story. For instance, I read a thread in the Player Talk forum about Dogs not winning. So I looked at the schedule and tried to find an underdog to win today. I chose the Oak+160/Clev game. The results of the matchup said Oakland had a good chance of winning the game. I color code my matchups and when I see alot of green, that means that team has a good chance of winning. Red= loser. Anyways, they almost won. Final score was Clev 7-6. Oakland got 9 hits too.

I also did the matchup for the Detroit/KC game. Singer is always a good target to get a hit. He's a not so good pitcher. When I looked at the results, Detroit was screaming "pick me"! The whole lineup had positive matchup in their favor, Xtreme 9's and 10's. That's the kind of results you get for Texas, not Detroit. I took them in my MLB contest, but couldn't use them as my survivor pick because the odds were too high.

If I find matchups like the above mentioned, I'll post it here. My "handicapping" is pure amateur so take it with a grain of salt.
Be back tomorrow.....

[Aunty808]

June 22 Thursday

I have to split this post ...too big to download message?
I missed the Ariz/Wash game, I'll do it later....Today's Groups
Group 1
(A) Phil/Harper
(A) Bos/Devers
(A) KC/Witt
(B) TB/Diaz
(B) Mia/ Arraez (popular pick)


Group 2
Phil/Marsh
Phil/Schwarber
Phil/Bohm
Phil/Turner
Phil/Castellanos
Phil/Clemens
Oak/Rooker
Clev/Rosario
Clev/Ramirez
SD/Soto
SD/Sanchez
SD/Machado
SD/Grisham
SF/Slater
Pitt/Hayes
Pitt/Joe
Mia/Cooper
Mia/Wendle
Sea/Hernandez
Sea/Suarez
Sea/Rodriquez

[Aunty808]

finally fixed issue here's part 2

Group 3
Atl/Acuna
Atl/Olson
Atl/Arcia
Atl/Riley
Atl/Ozuna
Oak/Brown
Oak/Noda
Oak/Bride
Clev/J Naylor
Bos/Casas
Bos/Yoshida
Bos/Turner
Bos/Verdugo
Minn/Jeffers
Minn/Solano
Minn/Kepler
SD/Tatis
SF/Davis
SF/Yastrzemski
SF/Wade
KC/Melendez
TB/Raley
TB/Ramirez
TB/J Lowe
Pitt/McCutchen
Mia/Sanchez
Mia/Soler
Mia/DeLaCruz


Group4
Atl/Harris
Atl/Rosario
Phil/Pache
Minn/Gallo
Minn/Buxton
SD/Cruz
SF/Pederson
SF/Conforto
KC/Garcia
KC/Perez
KC/Pratto
TB/Bethancourt
Pitt/Reynolds
Pitt/Palacios
Pitt/Suwinski
Pitt/Marcano
Mia/Stallings
NYY/ Higashioka
NYY/Stanton
NYY/Donaldson
NYY/Bauers
NYY/Lemahieu
NYY/ McKinney
NYY/Volpe
NYY/Calhoun

[Aunty808]

part 3

It said the file was too big, so I had to split it again.....

Special note: I did the Sea/NYY game and the results were very surprising. Not one of the qualifiers had a positive score. And usually if a hitter gets a negative matchup, the negative score usually is around a -1 to -3. NYY had one -1, one -3, four -7, one -8 and one -9. I just checked the contest odds on the game and it's listed as -110 for both Seattle and NY. I thought Seattle would've been the favorite, a bigger favorite, considering the matchup. I'm gonna take Seattle and the UN7' just to see what happens.
And another note, Machado was the only player to score an Xtreme+10. This is a first, never happened before. Since all the scores were low, I am going to take all the games UNDER the total in all the games. I'm curious to see the results.

[Aunty808]

Where's the broom! I got stuck with issues posting this morning and couldn't put my picks in my contest, but I would've won all the games picking the UNDER. Well, Atlanta is still playing, but 1-0 in the 10th, doubt if it will go over. Let's see how the next four games do.

My matchups tells me all the games should go under the total today. But,I still have to look for my survivor pick for today, and I am guessing the only game that will go over is the game I choose to go UNDER.....lol.

[Aunty808]

Where's the broom! I got stuck with issues posting this morning and couldn't put my picks in my contest, but I would've won all the games picking the UNDER. Well, Atlanta is still playing, but 1-0 in the 10th, doubt if it will go over. Let's see how the next four games do.

I jinxed myself....the score is 5-1 in the 10th!! OMG!!
My matchups tells me all the games should go under the total today. But,I still have to look for my survivor pick for today, and I am guessing the only game that will go over is the game I choose to go UNDER.....lol.

I guess I jinxed myself...the score is now 5-1 in the 10th! OMG!!!

[Aunty808]

Just got home from work and checked the scores.....what a turn around. All games under in the morning and all overs in the afternoon games. Baseball is sure hard to figure out....
Well, at least the NYY didn't win, got that one right.

I think because I only do the matchups for the players that meet the 2 criteria I set, I don' t get the full picture of the game. I only get a snapshot. With yesterday's Detroit's game, I did do the whole lineup and got a clear picture of Detroit winning the game. I need to figure out how I can get the matchups done in the least amount of time. And then after the All Star Break, I think I will just list the Home Run Group instead of the entire qualifying matchups. It takes too long to type up and leaves me no time to figure out my picks. We'll see.....on to tomorrow.

And oh by the way.....I couldn't put the morning game under plays cause I was too late, games had started. So of course, I put in the four late games and the morning games all win cause I didn't play them, and the late games lost cause I did....The only pick that saved me from going ofer was the Seattle pick. Oh well, it's only fake money......

[Aunty808]

June 23 TGIF!

Tried something different today. To get the full picture of the games that I target, I did the whole lineup.

The games that I target has to have 3 things to qualify.
1- A Pitcher with a high BAA
2- A Pitcher with a HH%
3- A Pitcher that is a Low Rated Pitcher in the eyes of fantasy sites.

Sometimes a high BAA will override the HH% and will be a target game.
Targets in bold.
X10 and X9 are top choices
Mixed is 8-0 scores, all in favor of hitters.
Negative scores favors the Pitcher.
I used the lineups from one site. Some are confirmed, others are not. Check to see if players are in confirmed lineup.

Minn/Wentz
X10/X9 - Solano Vazquez and Correa
Mixed - Taylor Kepler Buxton and Farmer
Negative -Lewis and Castro

Det/Maeda
X10/X9 - Vierling and McKinstry
Mix - The rest of the lineup
Negative - None

Pitt/Luzardo
X10/X9 - None
Mix - McCutchen
Negative - The rest of the lineup

Mia/Ortiz
X10/X9 - Arraez Soler Fortes Sanachez
Mix - The rest of the lineup
Negative - None

Atl/Weaver
X10/X9 - The whole lineup except
Mix- Harris and Rosario
Negative - None

Cinn/Smith-Shawver
X10/X9 - None
Mix - Fraley India Steer Votto Friedl
Negative- McLain Maile DeLaCruz and Stephenson

LAA/Freeland
X10/X9 Ward Trout Ohtani Drury Renfroe Rengifo
Mix - Wallach
Negative - Stefanic and Velazquez

Col/Sandoval
X9 - McMahon
Mix - Profar Tovar Diaz and Grichuk
Negative - Jones Montes Montero Doyle

Wash/Musgrove
X10/X9 - None
MIx - Thomas Garcia Candelario Ruiz and Abrams
Negative - Meneses Dickerson Smith and Garrett

SD/Corbin
X10/X9
EVERYBODY
Mix - None
Negative - None

Ariz/Webb
X10/X9 - None
Mix - The entire lineup except
Negative - Longoria

SF/Davies
X10/X9 - Wade Estrada Yastr Pederson and Conforto
Mix - Davis and Bailey
Negative - Matos and Schmidt

Special Note: Another first....never had a full lineup of Xtreme10 and Xtreme9 scores. Looks like Corbin is in for a long day. I checked to see what his last game looked like and it was nothing out of the ordinary. And I also checked to see if he had an "Ace" game. The best was vs the Cubs. Pitched 7 innings,gave up 3 hits 2 runs, 0 BB and 6 S/O. That game scored him his highest fantasy score of 37, which isn't that high. Ace pitchers will score like 48 and higher.
So today I will be taking SD and the OVER in my contest.

EDIT:
I forgot, the Home Run Hit List. They are the only ones that qualified in the games that I targeted.
Mia/Arraez
Wash/Ruiz
Col/Grichuk
Next four scored a 90+ and didn't quite make the 100+ Club above.
Wash/Garcia
SD/Machado
SF/Pederson
Atl/Acuna

[Aunty808]

Cubs/STL in London June 24

I just did the matchup for the entire lineups.
Wainwright met only one (BAA) of the three (BAA/HH%/Low Rating) but I like to target him cause he gives up alot of hits and is one of my favorite "GAS CAN" pitchers who is almost always out of gas!
For BTS, he's a good pitcher because he gives up alot of hits and also because of his K% (11.9%) and BB% (6.5%).

The matchup results came to no surprise. The entire Cubs lineup is exactly the same as SD's yesterday. Everyone had Xtreme10's and Xtreme9 scores except for Madrigal (S8 score).
Stl on the other hand has Arenado being the only player between the two teams qualifying as a HOME RUN hitter. The rest of the line scored between an S7 to M5 which is good but not great. Contreras and Dejong both scored negative numbers.

The logical thing to bet is to take the Cubs, like SD yesterday, right? But, why is the CUBS only a -135 today and SD was -300? The last time I came across this situation, I took the dog and won. I don't remember what the odds were, but I knew something wasn't right.

Logic says to bet the Cubs and OVER. I'll pass and see what happens.
Gonna do the rest of the games now.

EDIT: I forgot to mention that fact that Wainwright just played his best game this season.
June 17 vs @NYM pitched 6.1 innings, gave up 7 hits, 3runs, 2HR, 2BB and 3SO. He also got his highest fantasy score of 29. In fantasyland, that's not so good....
Usually when a pitcher plays his best game, the next game is his worse.....I think I just talked myself into taking the Cubs....hope I don't get burned!!

[Aunty808]

Just a heads up....
After looking over the games, none really popped out or qualify to do the matchups. I'll pass today and check out tomorrow schedule.

While, the Cubs kicked butt, but STL didn't do anything to help get the total OVER.
I lost the juice in fake money in my contest.

[Aunty808]

June 25

I did the matchups for the Cubs/Stl game and the LAA/Col game.

Cubs again are all Xtreme9 and 10's with the exception of Gomes who scored an S8, a notch below. The difference with today's matchup is Stl has all positive matchups too, except Walker (L-1). Stl players scores all fell in the Mix group, scores of 8 to +0, with the exception of Arenado, who again is the only one who made the Home Run list.
I checked the game log of Stroman and he's won like 7 in a row. His numbers are all better than Liberatore, but he's just as human as everybody else and I think, tomorrow he might have a bad hair day. Stroman, who is 0-4 with a 5.22 ERA in seven starts against the Cardinals since recording his only win versus them in 2014, while with Toronto. He gave up two runs, four hits and struck out six in six innings of a 3-1 home loss to the Cardinals on May 8. I C/P the bold from a preview I read.
My pick may not win but with all the green I see in this game, I think STL+145 has a chance to win. Yesterday was the favorite and under, maybe today is the DOG and OVER?

The LAA/Col game
As I watched the game yesterday and did the matchups because I was wondering how I missed that game. When I checked the numbers, I think the HH% of 29.5% for Anderson scared me off the game. I should've done the game tho because his BAA is .267 and his rating was very low, 389. What a game.......unreal. I felt so sorry for Colorado.
Today's matchup is similar to the one I did as I watched the game. The difference is Colorado has some Xtreme9 and 10's, meaning they should show up today and not get their butts kicked again. Anderson has better numbers than Gomber, but he gives up alot of hits. That a good thing for us BTS players.
LAA players all scored Xtreme9 and 10's with the exception of Padlo and Velazquez. Wallach score an S6.
Colorado players Profar, McMahon and Grichuk scored Xtreme10's. Jones and Tovar scored S6. Montero and Doyle scored negative matchups. A note here on negative matchups.....it's not all a bad thing, earlier in the season, these are the players that had the most hits.....go figure......
How ironic would it be for Tyler Anderson to get beat up by Colorado today? Yesterday, Chase Andersongot his butt kicked by the Angels.....? I'm taking the Rockies+130 in my contest. I see alot of green in this game too...Total is at 13, OVER? UNDER? I dunno......when I color code my matchup results, I have to remind myself that alot of HITS DOES NOT mean alot of RUNS. I'm still learning....

Ohtani and Grichuk are the only two to make the Home Run List.
Got to set my alarm clock....the game starts at 4:00am HST

[Aunty808]

ATL/CINN June 25 Sunday

The results show Atlanta getting the win today. The top of the lineup (1-4) all scored X9 and X10.The rest scored between an S8 and S6. Stoudt doesn't have too much history in the majors and he only has 2 game logs. His BAA is .355, HH%/52% and has a very low rating of 360. Stroudt's numbers says he is a "GAS CAN" pitcher, running on fumes. Looks like he's in for a long day......
Red's lineup is the opposite of the Braves. Six players scored negative and three scored low positive scores. Morton is an average rated pitcher. He's not an "ACE" pitcher or a "GAS CAN" pitcher.
If I were to bet this game, I would take Atlanta F5 more so than ML cause they always seem to give up their leads.
With Stoudt's .400 BA with RISP, I would take a chance on the OVER 11.

Just want to mention here that my "handicapping " games came about because of my Beat The Streak Contest. It's just one method I use to try and find my bats for the contest. I am basically guessing, so please take my analysis with a grain of salt. You all bet with real money.....my contest picks win/lose me fake money. Use the info at your own risk, do your own research.

My Dad used to gamble and he used to buy those newsletters, a couple were Pointwise and The GoldSheet. He won some and lost more. He saw an ad "Pay After You Win!" . He asked me to call and get the picks for him. I told him to do his own research because he would be wasting his money putting his hard earned money on someone else's research. He didn't listen, bought a couple of picks, which lost, so he went back to doing his own guessing reading his newsletter. The moral of the story is, no one really knows how the games will be played and what the final outcome will be. Your guess is as good as mine. DO YOUR HOMEWORK AND TRUST YOUR WORK.

[Aunty808]

I am trying to learn these different ways of betting. My contest only offers sides and totals. I frequent alot of gambling forums and lots of people bet the F5 bet.

Well, I just googled the F5 bet and it said the bet is VOID (Ihope). No win, no lose.

Glad the Cards won. I lost the OVER bet cause I had 12' in the contest. Close but no cigar.

Go Rockies!