I have an EXTREMELY STRONG play IMO: Butler +1

[MJT1212]

I have 9 different reasons to pick Butler vs. Valparaiso tomorrow...see if you can figure some of them out...

One of my strongest plays in a while...I normally flat bet ALL plays but will be doubling up on this one...

Butler +1

[BernardMadoff]

Name one.

[BoutDemCowboys]

A guessing game? Why don't you start by naming a few.......

[MJT1212]

Heres one for starters...

1. This game doesn't hold much value for Valpo since they clinched the regular season Horizon League champion title last game along with the number 1 tourney seed

[MJT1212]

2. Game means everything to Butler as they NEED this win along with a Cleveland St win over Detroit in order to lock in 2nd place regular season and assure thereselves a bye until the semifinal round of the conference tournament

[BernardMadoff]

Heres one for starters...

1. This game doesn't hold much value for Valpo since they clinched the regular season Horizon League champion title last game along with the number 1 tourney seed

Thats good to know, might play them. Nice angle.

[BernardMadoff]

But if Cleveland St. beats Wright St. and Butler beats Valpo they tie for 2nd right? Wonder how the tiebreaker works out since they Butler and Cleveland St. split their games between one another.

[BernardMadoff]

One thing Ive noticed though as I heard a good handicapper say awhile back and I agree with, is that years ago these type games were automatic given the circumstance, but these days these kids play till the end, all out, many times it doesnt matter the circumstance, they are made to think like machines, coaches jobs and salary mean alot more, Alan Boston was talking about such on a podcast a few weeks ago about these same type circumstances, but Im probably gonna play Butler, even though theyve screwed me quite a bit this year.

[MJT1212]

3. Valpo has been playing like shit as of late dropping 2 of their last 4...lets take a look at the two wins from the last four, there last game, when they played the Loyola (IL) Ramblers at home, the last place team in their conference, and barely skated by with a 4 point victory in OT...and their other win coming vs. the next to last place team by 9 at home which compares nothing to the talent of Butler

[MJT1212]

But if Cleveland St. beats Wright St. and Butler beats Valpo they tie for 2nd right? Wonder how the tiebreaker works out since they Butler and Cleveland St. split their games between one another.

From the New York Times "The Bulldogs hold the tiebreaker over the Vikings, so they would be the tournament’s second seed."

[BoutDemCowboys]

Liking this play more and more now.

Good Looks.

If I were to play Butler +1. You think it would be smart to jump on it now at +1? Where do you see this line moving if any?

[BoutDemCowboys]

But if Cleveland St. beats Wright St. and Butler beats Valpo they tie for 2nd right? Wonder how the tiebreaker works out since they Butler and Cleveland St. split their games between one another.

Found this by a kid named Alexn "I searched further into tiebreaking procedures and found that Butler has the tiebreak against Cleveland State because Cleveland State lost twice to Valp. So with a win against Valp tomorrow they will clinch the #2 seed and skip two whole games. I can't see Valp giving it there all in a game that doesn't mean anything. The public should be all over Valp as well laying only one point at home."

[MJT1212]

4. Butler has been playing excellent basketball as of late, firing on all cylinders, as it has been known to do the last two years at the end of the season. Butler has won five straight, including two road wins against Cleveland St. and Youngstown St.
Quote from Senior Player Butcher after last game:
“The past three years when we’ve gone on these streaks, as a collective unit, our focus has just been on another level,” Butcher said. “We’re starting to see it happen with this team too.”
Quote from Head Coach Stevens after last game:
“We’re starting to get to a point where we’re playing pretty well,” Stevens said.

[BoutDemCowboys]

Thoughts on where this spread will move, if at all?

[MJT1212]

Should I keep going?

[BernardMadoff]

3. Valpo has been playing like shit as of late dropping 2 of their last 4...lets take a look at the two wins from the last four, there last game, when they played the Loyola (IL) Ramblers at home, the last place team in their conference, and barely skated by with a 4 point victory in OT...and their other win coming vs. the next to last place team by 9 at home which compares nothing to the talent of Butler

You lost me right here, Butler is lacking talent big time IMO, they are just scrappy, they have problems scoring, their like alot of teams in the Horizon league, like a Wright St. or Green Bay, play hustle defense but struggle to score, while Valpo scores pretty efficiently. Gonna look deeper, see if I can find some recent newspaper articles and see what both teams are talking about in quotes and where their head is at, youre right Butler is thinking we need this game, gonna see what Valpo is talking about. They could be trying to stay healthy for the tourney more or less, but I doubt it, its not like the days of old these days.

[BernardMadoff]

From the New York Times "The Bulldogs hold the tiebreaker over the Vikings, so they would be the tournament’s second seed."

Wonder how that is true since they would be tied.

[BernardMadoff]

Found this by a kid named Alexn "I searched further into tiebreaking procedures and found that Butler has the tiebreak against Cleveland State because Cleveland State lost twice to Valp. So with a win against Valp tomorrow they will clinch the #2 seed and skip two whole games. I can't see Valp giving it there all in a game that doesn't mean anything. The public should be all over Valp as well laying only one point at home."

Oh ok, I get it now.

[MJT1212]

Thoughts on where this spread will move, if at all?

Well it started at +1.5 Butler and although a higher percentage of the public went on Valpo, the line changed to +1 Butler. To be honest I'm not sure, could go back to +1.5 or may go down to PK? Not sure what to make of it...that's why I locked it in at +1 cause I think it could go either way.

[BoutDemCowboys]

Got me thinking:

Teaser: Marquete +6 and Butler +6

hmmmmm

[BernardMadoff]

Liking this play more and more now.

Good Looks.

If I were to play Butler +1. You think it would be smart to jump on it now at +1? Where do you see this line moving if any?

Imma go ahead and get it now, once people start to thinking, I can see that line being a Pk or Butler -1 by gametime, sharps will be unloading big on this.

[BernardMadoff]

Just put in for half a dime, not sure what else Imma play tommorrow.

[MJT1212]

You lost me right here, Butler is lacking talent big time IMO, they are just scrappy, they have problems scoring, their like alot of teams in the Horizon league, like a Wright St. or Green Bay, play hustle defense but struggle to score, while Valpo scores pretty efficiently. Gonna look deeper, see if I can find some recent newspaper articles and see what both teams are talking about in quotes and where their head is at, youre right Butler is thinking we need this game, gonna see what Valpo is talking about. They could be trying to stay healthy for the tourney more or less, but I doubt it, its not like the days of old these days.

I agree Butler is not a high talent team and does have problems scoring at times, I was mainly referring in context comparison to the last game though when Valpo faced the mighty talent of the Ramblers. See what you can find about Valpos mindset...besides the fact that the game doesn't matter for Valpo, could find a breakthrough key to the game if your right about them sitting players to stay heathy for a possible tourney run, which would ultimately be the smart thing to do.

[BoutDemCowboys]

Just put in for half a dime, not sure what else Imma play tommorrow.

On it! Lets get it!

Looks like my only 2 plays for Friday are: Marquette Pick Em and Butler +1

[MJT1212]

5. Butlers getting free points when they should be favored

[MJT1212]

and honestly reasons 6-9 aren't nearly as big as 1-5 and could be all combined into 1 reason but oh well, they all pertain to the last matchup between these two teams in which Valpo won by 6


6. Last game when Valpo beat Butler, they had an excellent shooting night...shooting 50+ percent from the field...while Butler had the opposite shooting 34%...I would expect that to even out a lot more for this game
7. Last game went to OT so the 6 point victory for Valpo was not as clear cut as one may think
8. Last game Butler had 3 starters to foul out which allowed Valpo to pull away in a dominate OT (13-7)
9. Butler attempted 70 shots while Valpo attempted only 51 last game...but Valpo still won due to their great shooting that night...I expect more to fall for the Bulldogs Friday night

[BernardMadoff]

Here's a scenario I found, which may bode better for Valpo if they did beat Butler seeing they had a much easier time with Cleveland St. during the regular season than they did with Butler if both were to make it to the title game.

CSU can lock up the 2 seed if they beat Detroit AND Butler loses their final game AND either CSU beats WSU or Detroit beats YSU. Certainly if they win out, they keep Detroit from tying them, so if Valpo beats Butler, then CSU will be the only team at 12-6. However, even if CSU loses to WSU, as long as they beat Detroit and Butler loses, CSU gains the upper hand in the tiebreakers because they will have swept Detroit.

[drfunkmaster]

Lets cash this!!!!!

[BernardMadoff]

Yeah MJT, that first game probably wont play out near the same, Butler stayed close because they had a ridiculous 19 offensive rebounds compared to Valpo's 3 offensive rebounds and Butler had 19 more field goal attempts.

[BoutDemCowboys]

Well you've done your homework. Time will tell

[MJT1212]

Well you've done your homework. Time will tell

Indeed it will

this is one that if I lose...I won't be mad because the right choice was made

[MJT1212]

I'm putting 28% of my roll on this, so just over 9 Units

[SASH]

without doing any homework yet i wanna tail this play so bad

[BernardMadoff]

I played Butler but still concerned about their scoring and on the road, just hope they pull through, I do think Valpo will come to play which is cause for concern, if need adjusting Ill make a halftime play. Good luck guys.

[alexn]

Here's a scenario I found, which may bode better for Valpo if they did beat Butler seeing they had a much easier time with Cleveland St. during the regular season than they did with Butler if both were to make it to the title game.

CSU can lock up the 2 seed if they beat Detroit AND Butler loses their final game AND either CSU beats WSU or Detroit beats YSU. Certainly if they win out, they keep Detroit from tying them, so if Valpo beats Butler, then CSU will be the only team at 12-6. However, even if CSU loses to WSU, as long as they beat Detroit and Butler loses, CSU gains the upper hand in the tiebreakers because they will have swept Detroit.

In my opinion the scenario of saving your weapons for when it really matters outweighs the preference of facing either Butler or Cleveland St. Either way they will be playing both the semi and the final game at home and as of right now they are undefeated against both teams so I don't see a difference here.