RLM System Plays
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Night-TripperSBR MVP
- 12-14-09
- 3205
#2311Comment -
Night-TripperSBR MVP
- 12-14-09
- 3205
#2312Having a little fun with pucks tonight. As always, playing the + money pucklines.
Rangers -1.5/+180 for 100 W
Predators -1.5/+210 for 100 L
Jets -1.5/+180 for 100 L
Avalanche -1.5/+225 for 100 W
Blues -1.5/+220 for 100 W
1st period: Rangers -.5/+135 for 150 W
1st period: Predators -.5/+147 for 150 W
1st period: Jets -.5/+142 for 150 L
1st period: Blues -.5/+160 for 150 W
1st period: Avalanche -.5/+160 for 150 W
3rd period: Blues -.5/+160 for 150 WComment -
wiseguy007SBR Sharp
- 01-20-12
- 444
#2313UPDATE: 5:28PM
Games to Watch 2/28/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. (3000 TOTAL BETS & 63% ON ONE SIDE IF YOU WANT)
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.
4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)
NCAAB
8:00pm 729 Minnesota Golden Gophers OPEN +10 NOW 9.5
7:00pm 745 Wright State Raiders OPEN +11 NOW +10.5
8:00pm 729 Minnesota Golden Gophers OPEN +10 NOW +9.5
8:00pm 747 Illinois Chicago Flames OPEN +13.5 NOW +13
9:00pm 736 Wake Forest Deamon Deacons OPEN +13.5 NOW +12
NBA: NONE
2/27/12: 0-0
2/26/12: 2-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/19-2/25: 19-22-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/12-2/18: 15-19
WEEK TOTAL: 2/6-2/11: 17-22Last edited by wiseguy007; 02-28-12, 06:26 PM.Comment -
wiseguy007SBR Sharp
- 01-20-12
- 444
#2314RECORD UPDATE
Games to Watch 2/28/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. (3000 TOTAL BETS
& 63% ON ONE SIDE IF YOU WANT)
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from
http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then
comparing them to your book.
4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER
(IF YOU WANT)
NCAAB
7:00pm 741 Loyola Chicago Ramblers OPEN +13.5 NOW +13 W
7:00pm 745 Wright State Raiders OPEN +11 NOW +10.5 L
8:00pm 729 Minnesota Golden Gophers OPEN +10 NOW +9.5 W
8:00pm 747 Illinois Chicago Flames OPEN +13.5 NOW +13 P
9:00pm 736 Wake Forest Deamon Deacons OPEN +13.5 NOW +12 W
NBA: NONE
2/28/12: 3-1-1
2/27/12: 0-0
2/26/12: 2-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/19-2/25: 19-22-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/12-2/18: 15-19
WEEK TOTAL: 2/6-2/11: 17-22
YTD: 126-114-3 52.5%Comment -
wiseguy007SBR Sharp
- 01-20-12
- 444
#2315UPDATE: 5:14PM
Games to Watch 2/29/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. (3000 TOTAL BETS &
63% ON ONE SIDE IF YOU WANT)
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from
http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then
comparing them to your book.
4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF
YOU WANT)
NCAAB
6:30pm 525 Penn State Nittany Lions OPEN +12.5 NOW +11.5
7:00PM 528 Pittsburgh Panthers OPEN -10 NOW -10.5
NBA:
7:05pm 504 Philadelphia 76ers OPEN +3.5 NOW +3
7:35pm 505 Charlotte Bobcats OPEN +6 NOW +5.5
2/28/12: 3-1-1
2/27/12: 0-0
2/26/12: 2-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/19-2/25: 19-22-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/12-2/18: 15-19
WEEK TOTAL: 2/6-2/11: 17-22
YTD: 126-114-3 52.5%Comment -
Notorious_DonkSBR MVP
- 03-29-11
- 2689
#2316Interesting. I'm against two of your system plays so may the best man winComment -
detroitigerzSBR Wise Guy
- 01-19-12
- 865
#2317Is anyone elses Free Sports Bets website only displaying one game for the day? I keep going back and forth but it only displays one game a day. =(Comment -
wiseguy007SBR Sharp
- 01-20-12
- 444
#2318RECORD UPDATE:
Games to Watch 2/29/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. (3000 TOTAL BETS &
63% ON ONE SIDE IF YOU WANT)
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from
http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then
comparing them to your book.
4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF
YOU WANT)
NCAAB
6:30pm 525 Penn State Nittany Lions OPEN +12.5 NOW +11.5 L
7:00PM 528 Pittsburgh Panthers OPEN -10 NOW -10.5 W
NBA:
7:05pm 504 Philadelphia 76ers OPEN +3.5 NOW +3 L
7:35pm 505 Charlotte Bobcats OPEN +6 NOW +5.5 L
2/29/12: 1-3
2/28/12: 3-1-1
2/27/12: 0-0
2/26/12: 2-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/19-2/25: 19-22-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/12-2/18: 15-19
WEEK TOTAL: 2/6-2/11: 17-22
YTD: 127-117-3 52%Comment -
sixzeroSBR Hustler
- 11-02-11
- 61
#2319what should we do about Freesports..?Comment -
Laissez FaireSBR Wise Guy
- 01-31-12
- 536
#2321site is down for maintenance I see...Comment -
Laissez FaireSBR Wise Guy
- 01-31-12
- 536
#2322RLM plays I see thus far...
7pm Southern Illinois +4.5 (opened at +5.5)
9:30pm Bradley +7 (opened at +7.5)
10:30pm USC +7 (opened at +8)
10:05pm Kings +3.5 (opened at +4)
10:35pm Trailblazers +3.5 (opened at +4.5)Comment -
wiseguy007SBR Sharp
- 01-20-12
- 444
#2323UPDATE: 5:26PM
Games to Watch 3/1/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. (3000 TOTAL BETS & 63% ON ONE SIDE IF YOU WANT)
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.
4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)
NCAAB
7:00pm 739 Southern Illinois Salukis OPEN +5.5 NOW +4.5
9:30pm 741 Bradley Braves OPEN +7.5 NOW +7
10:30pm 722 USC Trojans OPEN +8 NOW +7
NBA:
10:05pm 706 Sacramento Kings OPEN +4 NOW +3.5
10:35pm 708 Portland Trailblazers OPEN +4.5 NOW +3.5
2/29/12: 1-3
2/28/12: 3-1-1
2/27/12: 0-0
2/26/12: 2-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/19-2/25: 19-22-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/12-2/18: 15-19
WEEK TOTAL: 2/6-2/11: 17-22
YTD: 127-117-3 52%Comment -
SalvadorCSBR Hustler
- 02-02-12
- 94
#2324Miami/Portland line probably dropping due to the fact that Bosh (personal) is expected tonight's game and Friday's game vs. JazzComment -
wiseguy007SBR Sharp
- 01-20-12
- 444
#2325RECORD UPDATE:
Games to Watch 3/1/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. (3000 TOTAL BETS & 63% ON ONE SIDE IF YOU WANT)
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.
4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)
NCAAB
7:00pm 739 Southern Illinois Salukis OPEN +5.5 NOW +4.5 L
9:30pm 741 Bradley Braves OPEN +7.5 NOW +7 L
10:30pm 722 USC Trojans OPEN +8 NOW +7 L
NBA:
10:05pm 706 Sacramento Kings OPEN +4 NOW +3.5 L
10:35pm 708 Portland Trailblazers OPEN +4.5 NOW +3.5 L
3/1/12: 0-5
2/29/12: 1-3
2/28/12: 3-1-1
2/27/12: 0-0
2/26/12: 2-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/19-2/25: 19-22-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/12-2/18: 15-19
WEEK TOTAL: 2/6-2/11: 17-22
YTD: 127-122-3 51%Comment -
detroitigerzSBR Wise Guy
- 01-19-12
- 865
#2326Not to rag on RLM or anything, but I'm kind of surprised it isn't doing better than 51% thus far. The thought of playing the games with RLM meaning playing the games that the wiseguys are on seems like such a great concept. Little bit disappointing thus far. I feel like theres gotta be a way to win games when you can see which games the sharps are on AND what side they're on. Feels kind of like this RLM is just missing a little tweak somewhere. Oh well just my two cents.Comment -
Night-TripperSBR MVP
- 12-14-09
- 3205
#2327System Plays as of 1424 CST:
Illinois State
Miami (Ohio)
Brown
Comment -
wiseguy007SBR Sharp
- 01-20-12
- 444
#2328Not to rag on RLM or anything, but I'm kind of surprised it isn't doing better than 51% thus far. The thought of playing the games with RLM meaning playing the games that the wiseguys are on seems like such a great concept. Little bit disappointing thus far. I feel like theres gotta be a way to win games when you can see which games the sharps are on AND what side they're on. Feels kind of like this RLM is just missing a little tweak somewhere. Oh well just my two cents.Comment -
wiseguy007SBR Sharp
- 01-20-12
- 444
#2329UPDATE: 3:50PM
Games to Watch 3/2/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. (3000 TOTAL BETS & 63% ON ONE SIDE IF YOU WANT)
2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.
4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)
NCAAB
3:35pm 850 Illinois State Redbirds OPEN +3 NOW +2.5 W
7:00pm 826 Miami Ohio Redhawks OPEN +5 NOW +4
7:00pm 828 Columbia Lions OPEN +8 NOW +7.5
7:00pm 831 Brown Bears OPEN +14.5 NOW +13.5
8:30pm 845 Hofstra Pride OPEN +6 NOW +5.5
NBA:
7:05pm 802 Toronto Raptors OPEN +4 NOW +3.5
9:05pm 818 Utah Jazz OPEN +5.5 NOW +4.5
3/1/12: 0-5
2/29/12: 1-3
2/28/12: 3-1-1
2/27/12: 0-0
2/26/12: 2-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/19-2/25: 19-22-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/12-2/18: 15-19
WEEK TOTAL: 2/6-2/11: 17-22
YTD: 127-122-3 51%Last edited by wiseguy007; 03-02-12, 06:00 PM.Comment -
Night-TripperSBR MVP
- 12-14-09
- 3205
-
wiseguy007SBR Sharp
- 01-20-12
- 444
#2333RECORD UPDATE
Games to Watch 3/2/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. (3000 TOTAL BETS & 63% ON ONE SIDE IF YOU WANT)
2. Atleast 1pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.
4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)
NCAAB
12:00pm 839 NC Wilmington Seahawks OPEN -2 NOW -3 L
3:35pm 850 Illinois State Redbirds OPEN +3 NOW +2.5 W
7:00pm 826 Miami Ohio Redhawks OPEN +5 NOW +4 PPD
7:00pm 828 Columbia Lions OPEN +8 NOW +7.5 W
7:00pm 831 Brown Bears OPEN +14.5 NOW +13.5 W
3-1
NBA:
7:05pm 802 Toronto Raptors OPEN +4 NOW +3.5 W
9:05pm 818 Utah Jazz OPEN +5.5 NOW +4.5 W
2-0
3/2/12: 5-1
3/1/12: 0-5
2/29/12: 1-3
2/28/12: 3-1-1
2/27/12: 0-0
2/26/12: 2-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/19-2/25: 19-22-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/12-2/18: 15-19
WEEK TOTAL: 2/6-2/11: 17-22
YTD: 132-123-3 51.5%Comment -
wiseguy007SBR Sharp
- 01-20-12
- 444
#2334Here is some food for thought...
I have been tracking NCAAB 1st H, NCAAB Full Game and NBA Full Game in a spreadsheet and here is what I have found.
Start Date: 1/31/12 - 3/2/12
NCAAB 1ST H: 70-59-3 54% **+$510 AS $100 BETTOR**
NCAAB FULL GAME: 65-63 51% **-$430 AS $100 BETTOR**
NBA FULL GAME: 22-29 43% **-$990 AS $100 BETTOR** (IF YOU WAS FADING YOU WOULD BE 57% +$480 AS $100 BETTOR)
Now here is the the record we have tracked in the forum...
YTD: 132-123-3 51.5% **-$330 AS $100 BETTOR**
Sometimes we need to see the big picture. For some reason this system is failing so we must change something to get back on track.
Im not sure how much it matters about the number of bets in the game when we have no idea what they mean anyway, if we knew that these where real money bets i think it would make more sense. What we really need to know is how much money is on the side with the higher % of bets, then we would would really know if we are with the smart money or not but we will never know this info. So I believe we need to keep tracking and keep testing to understand how to make this more profitable in the long run.
We might need to only play and track games with atleast a 1pt RLM and higher % of bets. This is all up for debate.
There has to be a reason we was hitting at 63% and up a few weeks again and now only 53% and below.
WiseguyComment -
wiseguy007SBR Sharp
- 01-20-12
- 444
#23351PT RLM WITH HIGHER BET %
12:00pm 517 West Virginia Mountaineers +3/+2
12:00pm 826 Miami Ohio Redhawks +5/+4
2:00pm 541 NC Charlotte 49ers +11.5/+10.5
2:00pm 545 St Bonaventure Bonnies +4/+3
4:00pm 553 Boise State Broncos +15.5/+14.5Comment -
wiseguy007SBR Sharp
- 01-20-12
- 444
#2336UPDATE: 9:47AM
Games to Watch 3/2/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. (3000 TOTAL BETS & 63% ON ONE SIDE IF YOU WANT)
2. Atleast 1pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.
4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)
NCAAB
12:00pm 517 West Virginia Mountaineers OPEN +3 NOW +1.5
12:00pm 826 Miami Ohio Redhawks OPEN +5 NOW +4
NBA:
3/2/12: 5-1
3/1/12: 0-5
2/29/12: 1-3
2/28/12: 3-1-1
2/27/12: 0-0
2/26/12: 2-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/19-2/25: 19-22-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/12-2/18: 15-19
WEEK TOTAL: 2/6-2/11: 17-22
YTD: 132-123-3 51.5%Comment -
stafSBR MVP
- 11-11-07
- 2521
#2337
Having been a degenerate sports gambler for a many many years now, it's been my observation that there's not much difference between a good handicapper and a bad handicapper.
The good handicappers who are moving the line the wrong way, are only winning about 54% ats. It would be unrealistic to expect to do any better than this ourselves.
I've also observed that good handicappers tend to spend the majority of the time winning about 50% of their bets ats. They will have an occasional hot streak where they hit 60%-70% of their bets, making back their losses and then some. I believe RLM is following a similar pattern. We just have to be patient and maintain our discipline while waiting for it's next winning streak.Comment -
Night-TripperSBR MVP
- 12-14-09
- 3205
#2338I think the early success in this thread might have given all of us some unrealistic expectations.
Having been a degenerate sports gambler for a many many years now, it's been my observation that there's not much difference between a good handicapper and a bad handicapper.
The good handicappers who are moving the line the wrong way, are only winning about 54% ats. It would be unrealistic to expect to do any better than this ourselves.
I've also observed that good handicappers tend to spend the majority of the time winning about 50% of their bets ats. They will have an occasional hot streak where they hit 60%-70% of their bets, making back their losses and then some. I believe RLM is following a similar pattern. We just have to be patient and maintain our discipline while waiting for it's next winning streak.
Agreed...
I am going to post the plays I'm actually making based on a tweaked version of RLM. I'll track them in this thread just to see if they're doing any better than the original (and semi-original) version.
West Virginia
Tulsa
Duquesne
Miami (Ohio)
GWUComment -
R19SBR Sharp
- 10-31-11
- 433
#2339There is no central exchange and no regulation. Some of these things would defeat the effectiveness of the system, however data like that which is posted on Free Sports Bet can be corrupted at any time.Comment -
wiseguy007SBR Sharp
- 01-20-12
- 444
#2340UPDATE: 4:20PM
Games to Watch 3/3/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. (3000 TOTAL BETS & 63% ON ONE SIDE IF YOU WANT)
2. Atleast 1pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.
4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)
NCAAB
12:00pm 517 West Virginia Mountaineers OPEN +3 NOW +1.5
12:00pm 826 Miami Ohio Redhawks OPEN +5 NOW +4
4:00pm 553 Boise State Broncos OPEN +15.5 NOW +14
4:00pm 566 Fordham Rams OPEN +14 NOW +12.5
4:00pm 567 Rhode Island Rams OPEN +11 NOW +9.5
4:00pm 570 Texas Tech Red Raiders OPEN +16 NOW +15
NBA:
8:05pm 507 Detroit Pistons OPEN +8.5 NOW +7.5
3/2/12: 5-1
3/1/12: 0-5
2/29/12: 1-3
2/28/12: 3-1-1
2/27/12: 0-0
2/26/12: 2-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/19-2/25: 19-22-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/12-2/18: 15-19
WEEK TOTAL: 2/6-2/11: 17-22
YTD: 132-123-3 51.5%Last edited by wiseguy007; 03-03-12, 04:28 PM.Comment -
Night-TripperSBR MVP
- 12-14-09
- 3205
#2341
Anyway... unless someone wants to pay ~150/month for actual betting numbers, I can say that the numbers from Freesports come damn close to mirroring the action of the off-shore books... which should be expected... since the people participating on Freesports have the same perceptions/opinions on games that we do.
Since I am not going to be able to provide anyone with the information directly, I can either start a thread doing nothing more than providing my plays, or we can continue to use Freesports to post RLM plays here.Comment -
wiseguy007SBR Sharp
- 01-20-12
- 444
#2342You're right... kinda. This afternoon I decided that if I was going to be serious about this, that I needed to make sure that I had accurate, uncorruptable information with which to make my decisions. (So, I did just that.) However, after investing some coin, I can tell you that while the betting statistics from Freesports aren't based on real wagers, (for the most part) they're not that far off from those acquired from a subscriber-based site. (1% to 3% differences with the occasional flip-flop in betting favorites.) The amazing thing is, that Freesports actually has higher numbers that the subscriber-based site. For example... Freesports had a total of 13,682 wagers listed for the Trailblazer/T-Wolves game, with 65% on the Trailblazers. The subscriber-based site had a real-bet total of 11,101 with 64% on the Trailblazers. Picking a college game out of the hat... Freesports had a total of 19,307 *wagers* placed on the UConn/Pitt game and had a 50/50 split. The paid site had a total of 13,962 bets placed on the same game with 53% of the money on the Huskies.
Anyway... unless someone wants to pay ~150/month for actual betting numbers, I can say that the numbers from Freesports come damn close to mirroring the action of the off-shore books... which should be expected... since the people participating on Freesports have the same perceptions/opinions on games that we do.
Since I am not going to be able to provide anyone with the information directly, I can either start a thread doing nothing more than providing my plays, or we can continue to use Freesports to post RLM plays here.
ThanksComment -
wiseguy007SBR Sharp
- 01-20-12
- 444
#2343Games to Watch 3/3/12
Based on this:
1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. (3000 TOTAL BETS & 63% ON ONE SIDE IF YOU WANT)
2. Atleast 1pt Reverse Line Movement.
3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then
comparing them to your book.
4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)
NCAAB
12:00pm 517 West Virginia Mountaineers OPEN +3 NOW +1.5 W
12:00pm 826 Miami Ohio Redhawks OPEN +5 NOW +4 L
4:00pm 553 Boise State Broncos OPEN +15.5 NOW +14 L
4:00pm 566 Fordham Rams OPEN +14 NOW +12.5 L
4:00pm 567 Rhode Island Rams OPEN +11 NOW +9.5 W
4:00pm 570 Texas Tech Red Raiders OPEN +16 NOW +15 L
6:00pm 575 Utah Utes OPEN +18 NOW +17 L
2-5
NBA:
8:05pm 507 Detroit Pistons OPEN +8.5 NOW +7.5 L
3/3/12: 2-6
3/2/12: 5-1
3/1/12: 0-5
2/29/12: 1-3
2/28/12: 3-1-1
2/27/12: 0-0
2/26/12: 2-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/19-2/25: 19-22-1
WEEK TOTAL: 2/12-2/18: 15-19
WEEK TOTAL: 2/6-2/11: 17-22
YTD: 134-129-3 51%Comment -
BernardMadoffSBR Hall of Famer
- 12-12-09
- 6679
#2344Ive told people this hits roughly at 50%, Ive seen it tracked over several years, one is wasting their time betting by RLM, and books know this, which is why they freely let ya have betting percentages, which isnt true RLM anyway, true RLM would have a dollar amount instead of number of bets, but theyve been able to fool the public this long so why stop.Last edited by BernardMadoff; 03-04-12, 04:21 AM.Comment -
OwlsSBR High Roller
- 01-01-12
- 240
#2345The problem with reverse line movement in any sport besides football is there isnt enough public money to fade. The lines are basically determined by the sharps, and because of that, you don't have much value playing one side or the other. In other words, those following line moves are getting in at prices where sharps are no longer interested in pushing it further to one side. The lines are pretty darn accurate and the only way to beat them is to handicap the games yourself and be good at it, and get good numbers on your bets. An extra half point is huge in the long run.Comment
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