RLM System Plays

[detroitigerz]

Before leaving the house this morning, I jotted down some games that were strong RLM at the time (as far as percentages and line movement). Of course, the bets aren't there yet since it's still early. Anyway, can someone give me the current status of Bucks, Kings, Jazz and Northern Iowa?

Bucks open+8.5 now +7.5 (67% on one side)
Kings open +2.5 now +2.5 (60% on one side)
Jazz open -9.5 now -10 (50% on one side)
Northern Iowa open +6.5 now +5.5 (74% on one side) ---- Love this game!

[DarkNite]

N Iowa from +6.5 to +5.5 (now)
Bucks now +7.5
Kings still +2.5

[Night-Tripper]

Bucks open+8.5 now +7.5 (67% on one side)
Kings open +2.5 now +2.5 (60% on one side)
Jazz open -9.5 now -10 (50% on one side)
Northern Iowa open +6.5 now +5.5 (74% on one side) ---- Love this game!

N Iowa from +6.5 to +5.5 (now)
Bucks now +7.5
Kings still +2.5

Thanks guys... I was hoping that all four would stay in the red, but the two that still are, look real good to me. In fact, I played the Bucks this morning in hopes of not giving away any more points.

How many total bets are there on the Northern Iowa game at this moment?

[detroitigerz]

Thanks guys... I was hoping that all four would stay in the red, but the two that still are, look real good to me. In fact, I played the Bucks this morning in hopes of not giving away any more points.

How many total bets are there on the Northern Iowa game at this moment?

4257... I'm about to place my bets on that game right now. They look good from perspectives other than just strong RLM also.

[Night-Tripper]

4257... I'm about to place my bets on that game right now. They look good from perspectives other than just strong RLM also.

I'm with ya dude... gonna call my wife right now.

[detroitigerz]

Well I just doubled up on N Iowa... Feel really comfortable with that game, everything looks really good.

Today's Card:
Northern Iowa +6
Milwaukee Bucks +7.5
Mavericks UNDER 179.5

9-5

I know everyone in here uses RLM but I figure extra information can never hurt. I've found comparing statistics of the two teams has helped me a lot in determining BETTER RLM plays from maybe not so good RLM plays. I generally like to play only games that have two "decent," teams and avoid the trash. Seems to me as if RLM works better in those games after going over my spreadsheets and multiple games. I don't know the reason, maybe the sharps are just review those games more in the interest of knowing that the public will be betting those games more often. Here is my thought process for tonights Northern Iowa game.... Probably going to be a long post and if you don't care then scroll down but I'd like to have this written down somewhere so I can keep track of my thoughts and what is working.

Okay... First off I scroll through the games on FSB and look for the ones that have a lot of action. Min of at least 3000 bets, and then I check to see if there is 63% or greater (like RLM), then look for line movement. After determining whether or not this may be a good game to play (mainly look at # of plays more than anything else). After I have decided whether or not it looks like a possible game to play I plug the two teams into my spreadsheet. (If you use it you HAVE TO UPDATE the different tabs EVERY TIME you go to use it.) If you don't press refresh data the #'s will not change and you will be using the stats from up until today for the rest of the year DONT want that. Ok once the teams are plugged in, the first thing I look at is their Offensive points (calculated by possessions*offensive points per possession) (((Virginia Commonwealth has a 1 point advantage here))) After finding the difference in the "Off points," between the two teams I do the same for the Defensive points (calculated by possessions * Defensive points per possession). This # you do NOT want be to large. This value stands for the amount of points they let the other team score against them. (((Virginia Commonwealth has a 3 point lead here))) ... so far VCU has a calculated spread of roughly giving 4 (IMO). Next I look at turnovers, despite what most people think teams turnovers have played out big for me this year so far, I DEFINITELY recommend incorporating this into your spread. So after finding the difference here (N Iowa has a 1 pt advantage here) ... total spread at -3. That's how I usually arrive at my calculated spreads. Seeing as how N Iowa is getting 6 points here thats a 3 point differential. Let me see if I can figure out why. Northern Iowa is killing them in Effective Field Goal PCT and True shooting percentage, so that doesn't make sense to me (these values basically tell me the overall decency of the teams involved). Next I look at Sagarin's strength of schedule/power ratings. (Mostly just the strength of schedule) ((Rank of schedule on my spreadsheet)). I'm thinking maybe now at this point well maybe N Iowa has had a much easier season thus far or something, they're playing easier teams so their stats should be inflated a little bit. N Iowa has a 36th rank schedule compared to Virginia Commonwealth's 182nd ranked schedule. This is HUGE, and NEEDS to be accounted for. N Iowa has been putting up these stats against much harder teams than Va. Commonwealth. Next and the last thing I usually look at is comparing the two teams Sagarin Power rating. Sagarin says to add 3.34 points (at this point of the season) to the home team. (I've already accounted for this by adding that value to the value pulled from the Sagarin spreadsheet) ((So DON'T add 3.34 to the rating already displayed)). Sagarin has a calculated spread of Va Commonwealth -4.16. With all of these stats taken into account I make my decision. Here are the facts:

1.) RLM is on this game, 74% (right now) on Va Commonwealth, lots of bets, .5 line movement (games need to have line movement in order for me to verify them as RLM).
1.) My calculated spread using off points/def points is va commonwealth -3 (3 pt difference)
2.) N Iowa 36th toughest schedule....Va Commonwealth 182nd toughest schedule...
3.) Sagarin's power rating is Va Commonwealth -4.16 (this incorporates the home team advantage) which is more than -6 ((Which tells me to take N Iowa)).

These are 4 big signals, and when there are this many things going in the way of the bet you want to place I have to take them and double up on them. I already took this bet, so hopefully the RLM doesn't fade away before tip-off but the other steps helping me still leave me very confident in this play.


PS- Also I should note the comparing of total off points of the game vs the total def points of the game... That average is what I've been using to calculate whether or not an O/U for a game might be a good play. for example, for this columbia vs princeton game today. The line is at 121.5 (btw there has been RLM on this so far today, line movement of 2 points) I look at the average of the off/def points on my spreadsheet and see that the average is 125.191. While I usually only like to play the O/U's when theres a 6+ difference the RLM here makes a difference in my mind and is a big contributing factor. Probably going to take a little play on it after waiting a few hours to see if the RLM still plays out.

[Night-Tripper]

Well I just doubled up on N Iowa... Feel really comfortable with that game, everything looks really good.

Today's Card:
Northern Iowa +6

9-5

Yeah... wife just put 750 on NI and another 200 on moneyline... and added another 300 to my Bucks bet.

Any change in status of Kings/Pistons game?

Any totals (college or pro) look like RLM's?

In case y'all ain't guessed... I'm going to avoid the rush by catching these early... getting real tired of being on the right side, but losing by half-a-point.

[detroitigerz]

Yeah... wife just put 750 on NI and another 200 on moneyline... and added another 300 to my Bucks bet.

Any change in status of Kings/Pistons game?

Any totals (college or pro) look like RLM's?

In case y'all ain't guessed... I'm going to avoid the rush by catching these early... getting real tired of being on the right side, but losing by half-a-point.

I have to agree, I've been listening to sports betting podcasts for a long time now and they have wise guy's on all the time (with good and proven reputations) and a lot of them say they make their bets quickly after the lines come out. Obviously it's hard to tell which games will have the majority of the overall bets but it'd be nice if there was a way to look at what the wise guys are doing right when the lines come out. Think I'm going to look into placing bets early before the lines move so much.

No real change in the King's game.

The Columbia/Princeton game has potential for an O/U play... 61% on under and RLM of 2 pts so far... up to 121.5. I like this over....

[SMU77]

Yeah... wife just put 750 on NI and another 200 on moneyline... and added another 300 to my Bucks bet.

Any change in status of Kings/Pistons game?

Any totals (college or pro) look like RLM's?

In case y'all ain't guessed... I'm going to avoid the rush by catching these early... getting real tired of being on the right side, but losing by half-a-point.

NT needs to get to work and stop begging for info on the games

[troynewell47]

I got $2000 on northern Iowa

[Night-Tripper]

I got $2000 on northern Iowa

I only bet 2,000 to 4,000 a game on football.

[Night-Tripper]

NT needs to get to work and stop begging for info on the games

Where you gonna get your info if I don't get it for you?

[DirkDiggs]

Think I'm going to look into placing bets early before the lines move so much.

I have experimented with both playing them early and late, and I have found it to really be an imperfect science. Considering that we are playing against public faves, I've seen the lines move against RLM plays early when the sharps are betting them and then move back in our favor a bit as the public hammers them before tip.

So it can definitely go both ways.

I find the best thing is to maintain funds in at least 3 sportsbooks and shop for the best line. I almost always get a free half point somewhere...

[Night-Tripper]

What's freesports got on the Valpo/Loyola game?

[detroitigerz]

What's freesports got on the Valpo/Loyola game?

Nothing worth playing, no rlm, 58% on one side.

[Night-Tripper]

Nothing worth playing, no rlm, 58% on one side.

Thanks!

[Laissez Faire]

my plays so far


Penn -7
Brown +20
Columbia +6
Columbia / Princeton under 121.5
Loyola-Marymount -5


cavs +9.5
76ers -3
Grizzlies -4
Kings +145
Nuggets / Grizzlies under 196
T'Wolves +5
Warriors / Thunder over 207.5
Thunder -9.5



ducks +108
canadiens -103
oilers -120

[Joe D. 416]

Bucks still a play for tonight?

[Laissez Faire]

my plays so far


Penn -7
Brown +20
Columbia +6
Columbia / Princeton under 121.5
Loyola-Marymount -5


cavs +9.5
76ers -3
Grizzlies -4
Kings +145
Nuggets / Grizzlies under 196
T'Wolves +5
Warriors / Thunder over 207.5
Thunder -9.5



ducks +108
canadiens -103
oilers -120

adding T'Wolves +175

[crockje]

my plays so far Penn -7 Brown +20 Columbia +6 Columbia / Princeton under 121.5 Loyola-Marymount -5 cavs +9.5 76ers -3 Grizzlies -4 Kings +145 Nuggets / Grizzlies under 196 T'Wolves +5 Warriors / Thunder over 207.5 Thunder -9.5 ducks +108 canadiens -103 oilers -120

laissez what made you take the under in the columbia/princeton?

[detroitigerz]

Bucks still a play for tonight?

yes. they are. and i just took them so they're going to win.

[Laissez Faire]

the mathematical system I used told me to take under...also, dunkel index says to take under as well

[Laissez Faire]

yes. they are. and i just took them so they're going to win.

haha...loving the confidence my friend

[detroitigerz]

the mathematical system I used told me to take under...also, dunkel index says to take under as well

How has dunkel done in the past?... He has pretty much the completely opposite card of me tonight haha.

[Night-Tripper]

These are my plays for tonight. Going by my wife's interpretation of freesports, they are all supposed to be RLM...

Bucks
Northern Iowa
Bobcats Over
Heat Over
Bucks Over
76ers Under
Valparaiso Over

Can anyone verify for me? Hopefully she's right... because my bets are in.

[R19]

Valparaiso O/U is 49/51 with the line moving to the O.
Charlotte O/U is 42/58 with the line moving to the O.

The rest look good on percentages.

[Laissez Faire]

good luck to everyone tonight...I'm sure by now you guys know where I'll be

hey detroitigerz....I bet on the last two teams that came into Amway arena and lost the wagers, so I'm staying away from that game...I've learned to not bet on magic's opponent iif I am going to be at the arena haha...GL to you my friend

[Laissez Faire]

How has dunkel done in the past?... He has pretty much the completely opposite card of me tonight haha.

The Dunkel Index has been around since 1929...it's just the most reliable and consistent source I know to weigh my picks against...it is updated every morning around 7am for all sports

[Night-Tripper]

Valparaiso O/U is 49/51 with the line moving to the O.
Charlotte O/U is 42/58 with the line moving to the O.

Thanks... what about the others?

[Night-Tripper]

Valparaiso O/U is 49/51 with the line moving to the O.
Charlotte O/U is 42/58 with the line moving to the O.

The rest look good on percentages.

Thanks... I wasn't having her look at hard 63% percentages as much as I was having her simply look at where the majority of the bets were going versus the total moves.

Won't have this problem tomorrow as I'll be able to break out my laptop.

[detroitigerz]

good luck to everyone tonight...I'm sure by now you guys know where I'll be

hey detroitigerz....I bet on the last two teams that came into Amway arena and lost the wagers, so I'm staying away from that game...I've learned to not bet on magic's opponent iif I am going to be at the arena haha...GL to you my friend

don't goto the game. I will pay you.

Also, think a buddy of mine and I are going to the Magic game March 1st. super pumped never been before, get to see Kevin Durant

[R19]

Friday, February 17, 2012 All Times Eastern
7:00pm 823 Yale Bulldogs 8422 84% 5993 83% O 280 42%
odds 824 Dartmouth Big Green 1638 16% 1189 17% U 393 58%

7:00pm 825 Brown Bears 3306 57% 1142 27% O 375 52%
odds 826 Harvard Crimson 2545 43% 3153 73% U 347 48%

7:00pm 827 Columbia Lions 3879 49% 1243 23% O 298 40%
odds 828 Princeton Tigers 4044 51% 4228 77% U 451 60%

7:00pm 829 Cornell Big Red 3015 34% 199 3% O 264 44%
odds 830 Pennsylvania Quakers 5747 66% 6036 97% U 339 56%

7:00pm 831 Northern Iowa Panthers 2983 26% 2091 25% O 393 58%
odds 832 Virginia Commonwealth Rams 8439 74% 6256 75% U 287 42%

9:00pm 833 Valparaiso Crusaders 5297 57% 4575 69% O 331 49%
odds 834 Loyola Marymount Lions 4011 43% 2016 31% U 341 51%

Friday, February 17, 2012 All Times Eastern
7:05pm 801 Milwaukee Bucks 2918 31% 1851 28% O 444 39%
odds 802 Orlando Magic 6458 69% 4724 72% U 705 61%

7:05pm 805 Charlotte Bobcats 2102 27% 2069 40% O 462 42%
odds 806 Toronto Raptors 5804 73% 3138 60% U 650 58%

7:35pm 807 Miami Heat 8263 75% 5785 78% O 503 36%
odds 808 Cleveland Cavaliers 2697 25% 1663 22% U 884 64%

7:35pm 809 Sacramento Kings 2564 40% 2549 66% O 407 39%
odds 810 Detroit Pistons 3904 60% 1334 34% U 624 61%

8:05pm 803 Dallas Mavericks 5653 47% 6244 78% O 908 66%
odds 804 Philadelphia 76ers 6397 53% 1768 22% U 474 34%

8:05pm 811 Golden State Warriors 2987 41% 1997 39% O 686 47%
odds 812 Oklahoma City Thunder 4387 59% 3174 61% U 774 53%

8:05pm 813 Minnesota Timberwolves 2739 46% 2675 75% O 451 41%
odds 814 Houston Rockets 3273 54% 882 25% U 656 59%

8:05pm 815 Denver Nuggets 3546 43% 2892 55% O 470 46%
odds 816 Memphis Grizzlies 4659 57% 2359 45% U 562 54%

8:05pm 817 New Orleans Hornets 1103 21% 897 21% O 321 58%
odds 818 New York Knicks 4251 79% 3332 79% U 229 42%

9:05pm 819 Washington Wizards 2612 49% 1335 40% O 330 30%
odds 820 Utah Jazz 2769 51% 2029 60% U 778 70%

10:35pm 821 Phoenix Suns 3341 35% 1659 25% O 646 54%
odds 822 Los Angeles Lakers 6112 65% 4876 75% U 558 46%

I can see this is a mess, but it's not responding to my formatting unless I put in HTML.

[R19]

Thanks... what about the others?

Your plays look like the spreads are moving in the right direction vs. the opening line.

[Joe D. 416]

You guys like the Pistons?

[Laissez Faire]

don't goto the game. I will pay you.

Also, think a buddy of mine and I are going to the Magic game March 1st. super pumped never been before, get to see Kevin Durant

I will definitely be at that game...and I can't pass up the opportunity to go to tonight's game because I get to ride with my boss in a limo after work haha...but i will definitely be cheering for the bucks just for you my man