SuicideKings 2011 NCAAB Thread

[suicidekings]

I missed basketball so much... Not really a huge CBB follower, but with the NBA likely not playing this year, I'm taking a shot at it. The NBA is by far my best sport, and I'm hoping some of that transfers over to success with CBB.

First of all, I had a really hard time finding a comprehensive schedule online for the season, so I compiled the info I needed and built one in Excel for all 346 Div 1 teams (5077 games). The attached file has the complete schedule for the 2011-12 NCAAB season starting today (Nov 14) through the last day of the regular season (March 10) in table format. All the naming notation in the main table is from my original data source, but I included the KenPom notation as well for reference, in case anyone wants to do something more elaborate with the data.

I like contributing to the forum, so I thought I'd post it in case anyone is interested. I hope some of you find it useful, and good luck to all this season.

[YOUNGBUCK]

Bol SK

[Ktown]

I missed basketball so much... Not really a huge CBB follower, but with the NBA likely not playing this year, I'm taking a shot at it. The NBA is by far my best sport, and I'm hoping some of that transfers over to success with CBB.

First of all, I had a really hard time finding a comprehensive schedule online for the season, so I compiled the info I needed and built one in Excel for all 346 Div 1 teams (5077 games). The attached file has the complete schedule for the 2011-12 NCAAB season starting today (Nov 14) through the last day of the regular season (March 10) in table format. All the naming notation in the main table is from my original data source, but I included the KenPom notation as well for reference, in case anyone wants to do something more elaborate with the data.

I like contributing to the forum, so I thought I'd post it in case anyone is interested. I hope some of you find it useful, and good luck to all this season.

This is so useful, thanks and good luck to you.

[suicidekings]

Play #1/#2

Kent State +8.5 (-103) x1
Kent State ML (+346) x0.5

The Golden Flashes are a solid team that are returning 4 starters (9 total), including the MAC Player of the Year (Justin Greene), MAC Defensive Player of the Year (Michael Porrini), and the MAC 6th Man of the Year (Carlton Guyton). They have high expectations this season and the experience and talent to back it up.

The Mountaineers, on the other hand, are a very young team this year, returning two starters (4 players total). They got off to a good start last week with a win over Oral Roberts, and I like them to regress a bit this week against a more experienced team in the wake of what was, for many of them, their first regular season win.

[suicidekings]

Play #3

Kentucky -6.5 (-110) x1

Kansas is not the team they were last season. I like Kentucky to win this game comfortably.

[suicidekings]

Play #4

Manhattan ML (+109) x0.5

So the Jaspers get beaten down by the Orange @ Syracuse 92-56... Two teams in entirely different weight classes. Brown is a much more comparable opponent that struggled badly against a weak Albany team. I like Manhattan to win this game by 5+

[alamo]

Good luck SK. Was with you on Kent + the pts.

[suicidekings]

Play #5

Iowa State -1.5 (-108) x2.5 x5

Drake's big men are soft. They can't control the interior and that's just going to open things up for Royce White to drive to the rim at will. It will be interesting to see if this line goes back up closer to tip.

[suicidekings]

Good luck SK. Was with you on Kent + the pts.

That was a nice start to the season. Gotta love the lines in the first few weeks being so out of whack

[lyon804]

Will be following your plays SK, nice start. GL tonite.

[darkenergy]

Gl this year SK. I got my own thread too, hope will survive til the end

[Ab34]

here we go sk

[AceKingHigh]

So far so good, BOL Bro!
On it big Iowa with -4 -2.5 -1.5 / First half lines got 'em all LOL Hopefully they make me smile today

[suicidekings]

So far so good, BOL Bro!
On it big Iowa with -4 -2.5 -1.5 / First half lines got 'em all LOL Hopefully they make me smile today

The more I look at it, the more I like it. Even though the numbers (KenPom, etc) lean the other way, I just don't think they accurately reflect what each of these teams are bringing to the table tonight. Let's get it.

[suicidekings]

Will be following your plays SK, nice start. GL tonite.

Good to see you back, Lyon. I'm so glad to have basketball again, I can't even express it. Here's to a profitable season.

Gl this year SK. I got my own thread too, hope will survive til the end

Good luck buddy. 5000 games in a season is going to make for some great opportunities.

here we go sk

[suicidekings]

Play #6

Miami (OH) ML (+173) x0.5

I don't even really understand why Dayton is favoured in this game. They have a team full of seniors/juniors with some size, but they mostly weren't good enough to start last season. They get the nod this year due to losses from graduation/transfer more than anything. They also picked up a few transfers that look promising, however none of them are eligible for this season, so when I look at this Dayton team, I see a team in transition that's probably going to fail to meet expectations this year. The completely outclassed W. Illinois in their first game, but that's really not saying much at all.

The Redhawks are an athletic team, featuring a top tier offensive player in Mavunga and very good overall defense. I think that at this price, the Redhawks are worth a small play because I feel like this game should be closer to a pick. I might be way off and look foolish after this game, but this one just makes sense to me.

[YOUNGBUCK]

I agree 100% was just sitting here staring at the game like why is Dayton -4 no ml for me but will gladly take the 4

[suicidekings]

Just for fun parlay

6 team parlay, risking 0.25u to win 11.61u

Ohio State -9.5
Kentucky -6
Syracuse -22
Cincinnati -25
Butler -13.5
California -15.5

[suicidekings]

Kent State +8.5 (-103) x1
Kent State ML (+346) x0.5
Manhattan ML (+109) x0.5
Miami (OH) ML (+173) x0.5
Kentucky -6.5 (-110) x1
Iowa State -1.5 (-108) x5

5-1 (-0.26u)

Pressing my luck too much today.

[No coincidences]

Sorry about the ISU game SK.

[suicidekings]

Sorry about the ISU game SK.

Not your fault. I saw the same factors you did that made us lean to ISU. Drake just played above expectations tonight. I guess its about time to step back from graded wagering and flat bet for a while until I learn my lesson. Fortunately there's about 4700 more games to go this season...

[ridims]

suicidekings is legit!!

nice plays .. loved the kent and miami ohio plays!

keep it rolling

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

Excellent start SK!!

[YOUNGBUCK]

Good day minus the one game we were on four of the same who you like today?

[lyon804]

6-1 with some dog winners? Nice Ace!

[suicidekings]

Play #7

The Citadel +17.5 (+100) x0.5

Home opener vs an in-state rival after two confidence-building games on the road where they shot 51.5% from the floor and got to the line an average of 33 times per game. Clemson lost a lot last year to graduation in terms of offensive firepower. Their strength is defense, and if the Bulldogs can turn this game into a shootout, Clemson will have a hard time pulling away.

The Citadel is also a young team, but I liked what I saw from them in their game against Army. They were down 20 at one point, but kept their composure in rallying back. Then when the Knights started fouling at the end, the Bulldogs hit their free throws in the clutch moments to win the game.

Not a big play, but one that I like.

[suicidekings]

suicidekings is legit!!

nice plays .. loved the kent and miami ohio plays!

keep it rolling

Excellent start SK!!

Good day minus the one game we were on four of the same who you like today?

6-1 with some dog winners? Nice Ace!

Thanks guys

[suicidekings]

Play #8

Cornell +10 (-102) x0.5

Too many points for Buffalo to be laying. Cornell can still make it rain from the perimeter, and will test the Buffalo defense.

[suicidekings]

The Citadel +17.5 (+100) x0.5
Cornell +10 (-102) x0.5

11/16: 1-1 (+0u)
YTD: 6-2 (-0.26u)

[Shifty107]

Damn this Long beach team can ball. Anyone watching? Ware is a machine.

Exciting team to say the least.

[Shifty107]

Oh and nice call on cornell SK. I got fukd by the hook. Had -9.5

[suicidekings]

Damn this Long beach team can ball. Anyone watching? Ware is a machine.

Exciting team to say the least.

I was originally going to put 2u on the LB spread and 1u on the ML. Changed my mind a minute before tip and held off. So pissed at myself...

[JR007]

used kenpom in the past, think they are better at pace ratings (totals) than for sides, there are guys who use this on other websites with some modest success

[suicidekings]

Play #9

St. John's -1.5 (+141) x1.5

Both teams have been less than optimal so far and have a lot of new faces, however I think the effects are more noticeable in Arizona because they lost a star player that really functioned as a glue guy for the team. They have other talented guys but are out of sync, and it's shown in their 0-3 ATS record, despite playing their first three games at home. They really haven't impressed in any of these games, or their two preseason games, and considering the quality of these opponents, Arizona really should have been able to put their foot down on a couple of them, but didn't. Now they're going on the road for the first time this year, all the way across the country to play in a tough venue (MSG).

This line actually opened at Cris as SJU -2. Despite having moved as far as -3 at a few shops, Pinny is still offering a juiced pk (Arizona pk -138) and The Greek has only gone to Arizona -1.5. The opener on games can be off by quite a bit sometimes from where the market ultimately decides it should be, but in this case, I'm more interested in why the books initially decided that the unranked team should be favoured over the 15th ranked team. I think SJU is the right side here. My price listed above comes from Pinnacle where the line is pk (+125) at the moment. I sold a point to get it to -1.5 (+141).

[suicidekings]

used kenpom in the past, think they are better at pace ratings (totals) than for sides, there are guys who use this on other websites with some modest success

I heard the same thing about kenpom, but also that the numbers are at their best early on while the teams are still relatively unknown commodities. I have the ratings and use them a bit, but they don't really play a huge part in my handicapping. Once we get a few weeks into the season I'll probably start pulling data and building a database, but for now I'm really more interested in looking at rosters and looking for mismatches caused by recruitment/graduation to exploit. The Alan Boston technique is definitely very satisfying compared to heavy number crunching.