Big Ten Season Long Thread- Juanitodelfuego

[juanitodelfuego]

Its about time to get started. A few thing I like to lay out there:

1) My model is statistically driven, so soft pre-season (A la IU) have to be taken into account.

2) I base picks off of my model that is 5 yrs in the making and it can change throughout the season as I just picked up two new statistical modeling books.

3) I tend to pick up traction when all teams have played 4 conference games, that is when I really discount pre-season and mismatches.

4) My units are $25/ unit.

5) I appreciate input, your picks and what you think.

thanks,

[juanitodelfuego]

Tonight two matchups:

IU vs. MN - look for IU to fall 61-73, falling short of the total of 138. I am 1x on MN and the Under. Remember, don't bet IU till they cover 2 or 3 times, then still think about it. MN 1X, U 1X

OS vs. UI - I like the Hawkeyes in the early season game. New coach, no travel and 12.5 pts. I have UI losing 63-72, just breaking the O of 134. UI 1X, O 1X

[juanitodelfuego]

2011 B10 Season Record 3-1, +2 units

[juanitodelfuego]

Tonight two matchups:

PU - 6 vs. PS - Got to go with Purdue here. They are playing tough, road doesn't discourage them and they will roll PS. I have Purdue winning 71-61 which covers the 6, and also covers the over of 127. PU 2x, O 1x.

UM+11 vs. UW - this is not the Dubba of old, i like them, its hard to win up north, but 11 points is a lot between these two teams. also, the 116.5 O/U is the books looking too historic on the stingy defense of UW. I have Michigan losing 58 - 63. UM 1x O 2x.

[BrewMaster]

I'm liking Purdue. Might parlay a small amount on the over as well.

[juanitodelfuego]

I just looked again and the total on the PU vs. PS game just dropped a 1/2 point.

[juanitodelfuego]

2011 B10 Season Record 6-4, +2 units

[juanitodelfuego]

Tonight 1 game, cross state rivals IL are hosting The Wildcats of Northwestern. We have IL giving 8 pts with a total of 142.

IL has gone over in their first two games this year besting 133 and 123. NW has gone over once. I like the under here. 2X

As far a side, if you made me pick, I would go with IL as we have had 3 of 14 games go to the underdog so far. I have IL winning 74-64, but too close for me tonight.

[juanitodelfuego]

2011 B 10 Season Record 6-5, even

[juanitodelfuego]

Today, one game and two plays. One BIG one small.

I am ALL over Michigan State -6 today. 5X, locked in. MS covered at home vs. MN and on the road against NW. PS has covered one time out of three in B10 play. What is Penn State without Taylor Battle....they are IU and IU would lose to MS by 18 at home. So, to reiterate, all over MS -6.

Also, 2x on the Over of 131.5 . I have MS 74 PS 64.

[jagaf22]

Is Battle not gonna go? What I've seen has him as probable.

[juanitodelfuego]

He will be there, but MS D will hold him back a little more than most. I have him scoring about 60% of his average or 14 pts, this, IMO, will make the difference.

[juanitodelfuego]

Back on the horse tonight with 2 matchups.

Wiskey rolling into Michigan State tonight. I am looking for UW to lose by 1, and cover the 4pts, also see this going over the total of 121. I am 1x on UW and 2x on the Over.

We also have the Fighting Illinis heady to Penn State. I will say, i have handed PS an unfair rep so far this year....and i am going to keep it rolling. i have the Illinois Boys beating PS 76-68, covering the 5pts and sending this over 135. I am 2x on IL and 1X on the Over.

Sidenote, average Total for a Big 10 game right now, taking out the 93-81 win by NW over IU, is 137.5.

[juanitodelfuego]

Big 10 Record to Date
6-7, -7 units

[juanitodelfuego]

Tonight I am playing the over in OS @ UM 1x and taking the under in NW @ UI 1x.

i am getting conflicting outcomes on the sides due to recent play, so going with totals.

Big 10 Record to Date
8-9, -7 units

[juanitodelfuego]

Wow, Northwestern is on a tear.

Tonight I am rolling with PU -2 at Minnesota, I am also on the over 134. I have PU winning 72-67. Minney is tough, but Purdue has had the most consistent play i have seen this year in the B10. 1X each

Big 10 Record to Dat
9-9 -7 units

[juanitodelfuego]

Big Ten Record to Date
10-11, -7 units

[juanitodelfuego]

Saturday 4 games, going in rough but I am finally getting some outcomes that are cooperating.

NW @ MS, I have NW dropping this by 5 so I am with the Wildcats +8.5 1x and under 142 2x.

IL @ UW, I have IL winning by 1, so i am going with IL+6 for 1x and over 124 2x.

PS @ OS, I am on PS+17 for 1 x and over 129 2x.

Lastly, UM coming to IU. I have to go with IU, so you should take UM. I am on IU -2 and the over 129 1x.

[juanitodelfuego]

Wow, an under that outlasted OT in East Lansing. +3.

[juanitodelfuego]

I am upping my Over 129 on PS @ OSU to 2x

[BiffTFinancial]

I am upping my Over 129 on PS @ OSU to 2x

i'm on this over. BOL to you.

[juanitodelfuego]

Not a bad day. 7-1 for +9 units.

Brings my B10 season to 17-12 + 2 units.

And my first IU win and cover

[juanitodelfuego]

Late picks for tonight:

1X MS + 4.5, i have the losing 67- 65.
1X Under 135

1X NW - 7 vs. UM. i have them wining by 8, but they can blow it out.
2x Over 132, NW has gone over 6 out of 8 times and they can
run it up.

[No coincidences]

Late picks for tonight:

1X MS + 4.5, i have the losing 67- 65.
1X Under 135

1X NW - 7 vs. UM. i have them wining by 8, but they can blow it out.
2x Over 132, NW has gone over 6 out of 8 times and they can
run it up.

Why is that number plummeting?

[BiffTFinancial]

Why is that number plummeting?

might be a lot of zone in this game.

[No coincidences]

might be a lot of zone in this game.

Hard to cap two teams that shoot as many 3's as they do.

It could be 59-55 or 89-85 depending on how many bombs drop.

[spargament]

Hard to cap two teams that shoot as many 3's as they do.

It could be 59-55 or 89-85 depending on how many bombs drop.

somebody watched the thunder's thunderously horrible 3 pt shooting last night

[tbill11]

Just curious for a little more insight on the Northwestern pick. Michigan's coming off a brutal 4 game loss stretch and will be really hungry for a win. I think they're a relatively talented team plagued by a hideous schedule. Thoughts?

[juanitodelfuego]

Just curious for a little more insight on the Northwestern pick. Michigan's coming off a brutal 4 game loss stretch and will be really hungry for a win. I think they're a relatively talented team plagued by a hideous schedule. Thoughts?

I hear you, but I do not have enough trend data to support tweeking their number.

I had UM losing by 8, 74-66. If it would have been a turn around game at home, I would have bumped UM a little bit because they have played harder at home. the reason for my pick not only of NW, but the over, is that NW has blown it up a couple times against marginal teams. Over 90 pts vs. Iowa and Indiana.

As the season progresses and I get more home-away data I keep dialing it in.

Hope that makes sense.

[juanitodelfuego]

Big Ten Season 20-13 + 5 units

[juanitodelfuego]

Okay here we go. Tonight Iowa is heading to Ohio State and carrying 19.5 points with them and a total of 134.5. I have Iowa losing 76-64. Now, OSU has been performing within 4.5 pts of my forecast, so even if they way outperform, we still have some room with that 19.5. The only hickup is Iowa continuing to play bad on the road. They score 16.5 pts better on their home court, 72 home 55 road. But Iowa put up 68, covered when they lost by 5 to OSU 2 weeks ago. i like Iowa here 2x. I am also on the over 1X

Purdue hosting Penn State- First I am 3x on the over 128. Purdue has gone over 4 out of 5 times and PS gone over 4 out of 6 times. Penn State has a better average on the road by +6.5 and they both have the ability to open it up. Penn State got beat by 15 last time out as 6 pt dogs, so I do not think 13 is enough on the road. I am taking PU -13 1X. I have PS losing 62-72, too close for me to take the road dogs when Purdue is coming off a road loss to WVA.

[juanitodelfuego]

Big Ten Play Stats YTD
Over 19 Under 12
Average Total 137
Fav Cover 17 Dog Cover 14
Road Fav Cover 6 vs. 5 not covering - worst road offender is a tie between UM and MS.
Home Fav Cover 11 vs. 9 not covering - worst home offender is OSU

[juanitodelfuego]

that hurt.

UW 73 IU 62 tonight

[juanitodelfuego]

Big Ten Season 20-17 -1 unit

[juanitodelfuego]

Big Ten Season 22-17 +1 unit