Picks from the Closet- By The Hanger

SlowNsteady · 12-12-10, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by Hanger

With that said,

Nova -8.5 is the only play for me, I THINK lol seeing if I can't get it at 8. Too bad the ML is astronomical here for this play...

Also a good chance,
I will be on WVA tonight, depending on line action.

I with you on Nova. just took em -5 2H. Lets cash this!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hanger · 12-12-10, 07:40 PM

Well, glad I didnt play most of my morning plays- would have been a horrible day here.

Ended up paying through the nose for a Nova ML play that was a winner
Jumped onto Harlee's play of CS-Ful- thanks bud!
Also flipped on my morning WVA analysis and ended up on Duquesne +6
And USF +4 here

Didnt see harlee was on Kent, so this will probably go poorly for me....

Hanger · 12-12-10, 07:41 PM

Back to normal guys- so I will be able to post plays as I make them...those of you who are familiar know why I couldnt this weekend, so lets get this next week off to a good start!

SlowNsteady · 12-12-10, 09:15 PM

nice cash on

duq.

Hanger · 12-12-10, 09:17 PM

Thanks- Dang USF falling apart hurt. Killed a nice parlay I built. lol The last shot was so funny, kid looked at the basket awkward from like 12 feet and tried an ugly bank, thats what the cover depended on lol

harlee71 · 12-12-10, 10:01 PM

That was a tough game Hanger. Could have went either way down the stretch.

Let's kick some ass tomorrow!

Hanger · 12-13-10, 08:47 AM

Last weeks basketball totals:

NCAA
16-14-2

NBA
12-8

Wasn't a great week by any means, but on my basketball I finished up units. This is what the thread is about, so in that regards it was a successful week. Truth is NFL killed me again, so for 2 weeks in a row I am saying UGH the NFL. Not many games tonight.
Early Leans are FAU +4

Hanger · 12-14-10, 12:45 AM

Well guess its time to check in.....I believe everything was in Shaggys thread from today.....

FAU +4 WIN
SDSU/Cal Poly 2h o64 WIN

NFL Ravens ML WIN

NCAA Week 2-0 WOOO better than last week already!!!

Balco10 · 12-14-10, 01:43 AM

Nice stats Hanger, as I go 10-1 today!

Hanger · 12-14-10, 09:31 AM

Morning Leans- Does not mean they will be played

Wright St -1
Depaul -1
GA Southern +26

oakas · 12-14-10, 09:35 AM

Depaul looks very tempting.

Good luck on your picks, Hanger.

Hanger · 12-14-10, 09:53 AM

Oakas-

Thanks, DePaul has been a choke machine the past 2 plays on them if I recall correctly. I very well not pull the trigger even though I agree they look good here. Until they prove something to me about playing a full basketball game, I just might have to wait.

JGetz · 12-14-10, 12:08 PM

You like Wyoming -5 at home against Denver, Hanger?

Hanger · 12-14-10, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by JGetz

You like Wyoming -5 at home against Denver, Hanger?

Getz, I had to run out the door this morning and didn't have time to finish the late games into my model. Without all the parameters it looked good but I will be able to give a better answer later.

Wyoming is coming off of a bad loss and should come out with force. They have been a good covering team this year till Saturday happened. Will post more later for this game.

JGetz · 12-14-10, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by Hanger

Getz, I had to run out the door this morning and didn't have time to finish the late games into my model. Without all the parameters it looked good but I will be able to give a better answer later. Wyoming is coming off of a bad loss and should come out with force. They have been a good covering team this year till Saturday happened. Will post more later for this game.

Right on bro. No rush at all...been looking at it as well as some other games and this one stood out to me. Denver is not a good road team and are 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog, getting outscored by 11.8 ppg in those games. Like you said Wyoming is coming off that bad loss and will try and get revenge tonight against their rivals. The only thing I couldn't grasp was it was at -5.5 and now 5. Not too much of a line movement but enough to keep me on my toes haha

SlowNsteady · 12-14-10, 12:45 PM

I know those are just your early leans but I just reviewed the Wright State game. I like it to & I will be on them! GL tonight

harlee71 · 12-14-10, 12:48 PM

Hey Hanger, I am leaning with C. Michigan. what are your thought.

SlowNsteady · 12-14-10, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by harlee71

Hey Hanger, I am leaning with C. Michigan. what are your thought.

ooooooooooooooh nooooooooooo!

I should have waited for your input! I'm kinda a WSU homer as I went to school there.

harlee71 · 12-14-10, 01:02 PM

I am still working on it. I was looking for some input.

Hanger · 12-14-10, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by harlee71

Hey Hanger, I am leaning with C. Michigan. what are your thought.

Let's see what I can recall from memory. Figures this is the day I leave the thumb drive at home lol

I ran it 2 different ways. In one I have it 66-61 wright st. In the other 55-50 wright state. I don't have exacts but I do know the following.
Wright st is top 50 in NCAA in giveaways/possessions, takeaways/possessions, steals allowed and in offensive rebounds allowed

C Michigan is top 100 in defensive fg%, and offensive ft %

Wright st is bottom 50 in NCAA in offensive rebounds, fg% allowed and getting the opponent to the stripe per fg attempt

C Michigan is bottom 50% in 3pt %, getting to the charity stripe/field goal attempts taken and also put their opponents at the stripe a lot per fg attempt.

I don't have the exact% but this is interesting here because:

Wright st is good at drawing fouls-Michigan likes to foul

Wright state is top 100 in 3pt fg%. Michigan is bad at guarding against the 3. Bottom 50 in that regard.

Both teams play the a similiar below average paced game and give up a lot of FTs. Both shoot around 72% from the stripe.

C Michigan turns the ball over 23% of their possessions while wright state is at 18%.

Think this one goes down to the wire, controlled by turnovers. I give it to wright state by the margin of 5. +\-1.5.

So umm. That's my opinion lol

Hanger · 12-14-10, 01:15 PM

Dang that's a lot from an iPhone- forgot to add. C Michigan likes to turn it over and wright st is very good at causing turnovers and steals.

harlee71 · 12-14-10, 01:46 PM

I love the Numbers, I am a numbers person. My question is where or how do you weight these stats. If you dont want to give up info I understand cause I am that way too. I do it my way! LOL But I always am looking for new angles.

SlowNsteady · 12-14-10, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by Hanger

Let's see what I can recall from memory. Figures this is the day I leave the thumb drive at home lol

I ran it 2 different ways. In one I have it 66-61 wright st. In the other 55-50 wright state. I don't have exacts but I do know the following.
Wright st is top 50 in NCAA in giveaways/possessions, takeaways/possessions, steals allowed and in offensive rebounds allowed

C Michigan is top 100 in defensive fg%, and offensive ft %

Wright st is bottom 50 in NCAA in offensive rebounds, fg% allowed and getting the opponent to the stripe per fg attempt

C Michigan is bottom 50% in 3pt %, getting to the charity stripe/field goal attempts taken and also put their opponents at the stripe a lot per fg attempt.

I don't have the exact% but this is interesting here because:

Wright st is good at drawing fouls-Michigan likes to foul

Wright state is top 100 in 3pt fg%. Michigan is bad at guarding against the 3. Bottom 50 in that regard.

Both teams play the a similiar below average paced game and give up a lot of FTs. Both shoot around 72% from the stripe.

C Michigan turns the ball over 23% of their possessions while wright state is at 18%.

Think this one goes down to the wire, controlled by turnovers. I give it to wright state by the margin of 5. +\-1.5.

So umm. That's my opinion lol

I like it. Thanks for sharing

Hanger · 12-14-10, 02:31 PM

I ask any of you to tread lightly here with my total projections. My model is a very small test window thus far but has been spot on +\- 4 points thus far on totals and tighter than that on game margins. Once I feel comfortable with it I will share a lot of info going forward.

LostBankroll · 12-14-10, 06:03 PM

Thanks for the Wright State stats Hanger!

harlee71 · 12-14-10, 07:48 PM

Hanger, you may hit this total in the CMU/WSU game exactly! 55-51 I think you called it.

harlee71 · 12-14-10, 08:02 PM

It is gonna be a close finish!

Hanger · 12-14-10, 08:05 PM

Harlee, I wont complain about it!!!!! LOL

harlee71 · 12-14-10, 08:24 PM

I bet

harlee71 · 12-14-10, 08:44 PM

2pt game 4 min left

Hanger · 12-14-10, 09:03 PM

In the other 55-50 wright state

FINAL= WRST:53 CMU:49

goblinburner · 12-14-10, 09:05 PM

Originally posted by Hanger

Morning Leans- Does not mean they will be played

Wright St -1
Depaul -1
GA Southern +26

thanx on that wright state won me a dime on that game good looks

JGetz · 12-14-10, 09:06 PM

Wow...what a garbage game by both teams...I guess the better team won in Wright St. I don't think that's sayin too much though. lol

JGetz · 12-14-10, 09:08 PM

Good call on wright st. though, Hanger! Too bad for me I was on the other side, nice job on the total too bro

Hanger · 12-14-10, 09:11 PM

Lets take it JGetz!!!
Goblinburner- Glad we got it.

Ok guys model update:
Tenn 86 Oak 80 Pred Total:166 GAME:Oak 89 Tenn 82 REAL TOTAL:171
Cincinnati-93 GA South-60 PRED TOTAL 153 GAME: Cincy:99 GA South 54 REAL TOTAL 153
Wright State 55 CMU 50 PRED TOTAL 105 GAME WRST 53 CMU 49 REAL TOTAL 102

So- compiled with last night I have had 6 straight games where I have been close I think its getting dialed in.....