Picks from the Closet- By The Hanger

[Hanger]

Todays Plays from the Closet:

4pm Kansas St -8

7pm Seton Hall -pk Going to wait and see what I can get on the line.

830pm DePaul - +1

The above plays are the only ones I really like. I like K State big.

The below plays are possible leans:
805pm St. Josephs +8.5 This will be a late decision
1200pm Saint Louis +25.5 Also a late call-I dont think its close, but this is a big spread
2pm TCU +7.5 If TCU doesn't win this game outright, I see it as a 3-5 point loss here. Spread should be good here.

Questions others may ask.

I like Dayton but not their weak schedule- could be unproven here
On Paper I like Alabama to keep this Providence game really really close-however, don't like who Alabama has played, so I am staying off!!!!
I really like BYU today- but am laying off. AZ might be a real good challenge here.
If I had to pick, I would be on Texas Tech today...but I don't, so I wont!!!

[Wiggums5]

I like your Depaul pick. Why do you say Alabama can keep that game close? Their only wins this year have come to some terrible teams.

[Hanger]

I like your Depaul pick. Why do you say Alabama can keep that game close? Their only wins this year have come to some terrible teams.

According to my model, it says that the game will be close, however you are correct. That's why I said I don't like who they have played. Their weak wins throw the model off. With that said providence could blow them out, but I am going to layoff based on the model outcome. I would rather have a no play than go against my system here.

[Wiggums5]

According to my model, it says that the game will be close, however you are correct. That's why I said I don't like who they have played. Their weak wins throw the model off. With that said providence could blow them out, but I am going to layoff based on the model outcome. I would rather have a no play than go against my system here.

yeah understandable. Good luck today!

[Hanger]

Here are my only plays for the day today: Win or lose, nothing else will be added well I have a little teaser too, but I never post them in here.

College Basketball 580 DePaul +1 -110* vs Ball State
College Basketball 539 Kansas State -8 -110* vs Loyola Chicago
College Basketball 565 Seton Hall -2 -110* vs Massachusetts
College Basketball 527 Detroit U -5½ -110* vs Eastern Michigan
College Basketball 531 Alabama +6 -110* vs Providence

You may notice I added the Alabama line. I am going with the model here that I am using. Providence has played stiffer competition, however With Alabama only allowing 55 pts in there last 3 games and only 56.4 for the year, they seem to play pretty stiff defense. Providence is allowing 75.3 in their last 3 games and 67.3 for the year. As I said, I am not just using PPG here for analysis, but I think the information above, along with the model, will provide for a W today with the Tide.

Good luck to everyone today with their plays, and I am sure I will be back time to time to check in on the forum.

[LostBankroll]

I see TCU +8.5... Whats the deal here 1 point swing within the hour?

[tylerguy02]

I like that you keep it real and post the line that you got the pick at. I notice that a lot of people post their picks late, but post the best line the game has ever been at.

[Sarkisian1016]

i took duke -25 for 2 dimes... marquetee -1 for 3 dimes and parlayed marquette -1 , kansas-22 1/2, and rutgers -9 for a dime.... sound any good?

[Hanger]

I see TCU +8.5... Whats the deal here 1 point swing within the hour?

Only thing I can see is the let down factor for TCU after a few big games. Nebraska plays really well on defense. I think that may be throwing some off here?? I am not quite sure. On the PR sheets, they share the same Overall. At home though Nebraska is 1 point lower than TCU away PR here. Both teams score a lot of points. Unless the money is jump on Nebraska and the line.....TCU might be a steal here at +8.5 I have Nebraska winning by 3-5 as I said so this one baffles me here.

[Hanger]

I like that you keep it real and post the line that you got the pick at. I notice that a lot of people post their picks late, but post the best line the game has ever been at.

Yes, I have seen that a lot too. I know I don't watch the lines 100% of the time. Chances of me getting the days best line are minimal at best.

[LostBankroll]

Thanks for the tip. I might play this. Whats the top play for today if you had to choose?

[Hanger]

i took duke -25 for 2 dimes... marquetee -1 for 3 dimes and parlayed marquette -1 , kansas-22 1/2, and rutgers -9 for a dime.... sound any good?

Marquette being -1 is begging for the Wisconsin money here. Personally I am not on either, but if I had to make a choice, I believe you are on the right side here.
Not a real big fan of KS -22.5 here though or Duke -25. Duke is questionable without a PG, and teams always get pumped up to play Duke. Baylor had it close for a long time. Question is whether Duke can get hot from the perimeter and dominate start to finish. Ummm I also dont like Rutgers to cover lol..

BEST OF LUCK THOUGH!!!

[Hanger]

Seems like there is a wide difference of opinion on today's games. Should be a great day game wise. Bol to all.

[Hanger]

Thanks for the tip. I might play this. Whats the top play for today if you had to choose?

Missed this earlier. I'd say Kstate. But no clue what the line is currently

[LostBankroll]

Took TCU +9. Horn Frogs dont play good basketball but I think it can hit! Hope they stay in and over the 9.

[harlee71]

I was leaning KST saw you liked it and put a unit on it. BOL to us!!

[shaggy3000]

I was leaning KST saw you liked it and put a unit on it. BOL to us!!

i wasnt lean Hanger. i just have faith!

[Hanger]

Took TCU +9. Horn Frogs dont play good basketball but I think it can hit! Hope they stay in and over the 9.

I think thats a great play.....that line was weird all day

[Hanger]

I was leaning KST saw you liked it and put a unit on it. BOL to us!!

Yes Harlee, lets crap this sucka, KST should win by double digits according to my system. -23 would of been good. I just hope they dont blow it open in the 1H and dog it the whole 2H, and allow a backdoor here

[Hanger]

Of course Detroit chokes in the last 4 minutes and we see overtime.....this couuld suck....

[harlee71]

Yes Harlee, lets crap this sucka, KST should win by double digits according to my system. -23 would of been good. I just hope they dont blow it open in the 1H and dog it the whole 2H, and allow a backdoor here

-23 really? I hope your right! We could use a couple of blowouts that don't cough up the lead!

[harlee71]

I kind of like Indiana +13. That is just a lot of points for UK to win by. Any thoughts?

[Hanger]

I kind of like Indiana +13. That is just a lot of points for UK to win by. Any thoughts?

Yes it is. Lot. But I like Ky to win the game here. I just couldn't comfortably say by how many.

[harlee71]

I made one mistake today with Oral Roberts. Not going to make another. Still think its a lot of points, but not gonna play it.

[shaggy3000]

your really talking that you like Indy? damn i took Kentucky

[harlee71]

Nice win with Seton Hall. Did you make a 2h play as well?

[Hanger]

Nice win with Seton Hall. Did you make a 2h play as well?

Yes harlee. It was a good needed victory. No there was no 2h play here. I only played the stuff listed this morning. No 2hers all day. It was weird lol

[Hanger]

Yesterday-

2-3-1. 2 Overtime games cost us a great day. DePaul choked it up as well as Detroit, who gave up the game. KState was a push, so yea. Seton Hall and ND had good games for us to keep us close to .500 today. The weekly record has gone to crap now at
14-13-2. Its been a tough week for yours truly. I am not sad to see a new week start.

Morning Leans
Villanova -8.5
Clemson +6

Light day for me today- Will probably have a little bit of NFL action as well. Heres to turning this around for the upcoming week.

[harlee71]

BOL today Hanger!!

[Hanger]

Ok Late Morning Leans:

Clemson +6
Penn State +7.5
Tulsa -7
Wake Forest -8
West Virginia -6
Nova -8.5
Temple -12.5

With that said though, I don't like the lines. Nova should have no problem winning by double digits, nor should Wake Forest. However after the last few days and watching the favorites mail it in with 8 minutes left in the 2H anything is possible.

[Hanger]

With that said,

Nova -8.5 is the only play for me, I THINK lol seeing if I can't get it at 8. Too bad the ML is astronomical here for this play...

Also a good chance,
I will be on WVA tonight, depending on line action.

[harlee71]

I liked Penn St too. Didnt take it though. Started at 1pm so...

I have no Idea what you use to make your picks, so I am not sure what kind of input your looking for.
Just remember that when your hot that it only lasts so long, and when your cold it only lasts so long. My question is do you weight you stats iat all. That is the most important thing I have learned. You have to give and take away with the competition played. That is a difficult thing to learn in my opinion though.

[Hanger]

Harlee,

I weight them on home vs away. I also look at the teams victories. If they barely beat a weak team who is 1-6, then I take that into account. However if there other victories were solid against worthy opponents, then I either discard the bad game as "not being up for a crappy team" or I try and lay off of the team in general as there isn't enough data this early in the season. They could just be prone to bad games- I will look and see, was there FG% below avg for both the season and last 3 games, too many 3pt attempts? Foul trouble? Offensive Efficiency below avg? There are a ton of things that I do look at.

To answer your question- I believe I do weight the stats that I am looking at to a varying degree.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

Hey hanger what do you al think about bc /maryland ;or i like duquesne and s fla and clemson what do you think fellas

[harlee71]

I am on Kent -3.5 vs S Fla