Gambler's Pilgrimage to March

Goodfella10 · 11-21-10, 08:05 PM

Good luck tonight.

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-21-10, 08:08 PM

...hell of a ballgame. Expected Dominion to take care of the ball a little better...20 turnovers is a killer. Won the rebound battle as I expected and it ended up being the Dominion's saving grace...next up Xavier

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-21-10, 08:33 PM

Hazell's the Pirates' number one scorer. His absence from tonight's game will be sorely missed as his 3-pt shooting helps spreads the D and creates scoring opportunities for the others. With that being said, the books gave my side an additional half pt...

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-22-10, 01:35 PM

Old Dominion -3

Clemson -3

I believe Old Dominion's defense, interior scoring, FG %, and rebounding will be too much for Xavier. Xavier's Holloway has been shooting lights out and carrying the team single-handily on his shoulders. If he had a slightly off game, which I believe Old D's defense is going to cause, Xavier is going to lose their bearings. Looking forward to watching this one!

The Clemson suffered from a sluggish first half (nod to Old D's D), but regained their groove and nearly won the game. I think they pick up today from where they left off, while the absence of the Pirates' Hazell it still too much for the other players to make up.

BOL on all our bets today!

Feel free to add insight. -HE

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-22-10, 08:37 PM

Clemson squeaks bye and covers...stars must be aligned. Can't believe the Pirates launched so many duds from behind the arc and still sent the game to overtime. Anyone know where I can watch Old Dominion and Xavier? I'll give pts for a good link. Thanks. -HE

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-22-10, 11:16 PM

Another 2-0 night

. Old Dominion +10 rebounds (+5 off RB). Holloway was 3-10 fg's and Old D covers.

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-23-10, 03:41 PM

Butler -4.5

I have not locked in a bet on this…may just watch and see how each team’s key players react to tough matchups. Currently, the line has moved half a point against the public, but I still think Butler has a great chance to cover. Seina’s Jackson will be tested against the pesky and superb Butler backcourt, and I think it’ll affect his scoring and add to some extra turnovers. Senior Ryan Rossiter (6-9 236 lbs. will match up against Senior Matt Howard (6-8, 230 lbs.), and if Howard can slow Rossiter’s double-double average, Butler's bench makes up the difference IMO. Again, may lay off, especially as the line has moved against the public!

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-23-10, 04:05 PM

UW -3

Throw out the insane 3pt shooting and Virginia's implosion once the game was blown wide open, UW's defensive effort, hustle play, and overall aggressiveness is something to behold. More importantly, I believe UW controls a favorable tempo and is able to create quality scoring opportunities. Kentucky is nothing to scoff at, but Darius Miller is the only returning starter and against the run-and-gun Huskies, I think Wildcats could have a tough time forcing UW to slow it down. I also like the angle of Jones having committed to UW, but then signed up with the Wildcats. Will be curious to see how he reacts.

CyMark · 11-23-10, 05:02 PM

thanks for the write-ups....BOL!!!

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-23-10, 05:53 PM

Zags +2.5

I know call me crazy...but I like the Zags to vent some of their frustration on a Marquette team that played their hearts out against Duke. The Zags have plenty left to leave on the court tonight, and Mark Few is going to make sure his boys get it done. The Public is down on the Zags...and rightfully so, but I don't believe they're as bad as people think. Kansas State is a very good team...and like Virginia's performance against UW, both teams felt defeated early on and didn't play to their potential. Anyhow, those are my two plays for today! BOL to all of us!!!

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-24-10, 12:23 AM

1-1 tonight...if you picked Butler congrads...couldn't pull the trigger. 5-1. Looking forward to tomorrow

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-24-10, 01:45 AM

A game that I might consider playing tomorrow is Virginia Commonwealth vs. Tennessee. Minus the coaching controversy, the Volunteers have shown some vulnerabilities as they blew a large lead to the Bruins (final score is misleading) and Missouri State University gave them a good run for their money. In both games, the Volunteers were able to hit the free throws and this could be a big factor heading in tomorrow's game. Virginia's opponents are averaging 22 free throw attempts against them...this could be huge as the spread favors Tenn -2. Also, Virginia is pathetic from the free throw line..I think they're around 55%. At this point, Tennessee has played better opponents than Virginia...Going to do some more preliminary capping...maybe share your two thoughts. -HE

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-24-10, 01:51 AM

Tennessee -2.5 (already moved a half pt..since the write up)

Maybe one or two more tomorrow.

CyMark · 11-24-10, 07:38 AM

love the write ups! I played the Butler game after i read your thoughts on the game.

please keep up the great capping job!

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-24-10, 04:27 PM

Akron -2

Cleveland State 5-0 record is misleading, as most of the victories have come against power puff teams. However, of 5 victories notched so far, the Kent State (5-1) was their biggest test and at one point they found themselves down 16. Call it what you will, but Cole’s heroics (8pts in the final minute) pushed the Vikings forward. Akron is descent ball club and their one season loss came against the Dayton Flyers, who haven’t loss at home against non conference opponents in 30 something games. Tonight, I like the Akrons and the inside presence of Zeke Marshall (avg. 3 blocks a game, team averaging 5 blocks) to force CLVD to settle for harder shots. I also look at the assist averages of both teams and Akron is averaging 19/game to CLVD’s 10. This number is going to come down as Akron plays more games, but combined with the fact that Akron has four players averaging double figures in pts to CLVD’s 2 players (both G’s), I like them to cover tonight.

CyMark · 11-24-10, 04:55 PM

I got Tennessee at -3 and Akron at -2 .....I feel really good about both covering tonight!

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-24-10, 11:41 PM

Liked Zeke's performance, but Akron as whole struggled and gave up way too many second chance pts. Looking forward to some more tournaments starting tomorrow and there are some exciting match-ups that I might make a play or two on...interested in the Murray st. vs. Stanford, Georgia vs. ND, and B.C. vs. Texas A&M. Hope everyone has a Happy Turkey-Day!

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-25-10, 12:34 AM

Temple -5

Temple has played two games, their last being a lopsided victory over the Toledo Rockets. Their other victory came against the Setan Hall Pirates (with Hazell). Their first outing showed some of their rust as they turned the ball over 18 times to only 13 assists. Granted they haven't played a game since the 14th, I expect them to come out more disciplined and have a much healthier assist-to-TO ratio. Cal saw four of its top scorers graduate last year, which leaves them with a very young backcourt (two starting freshmen guards). This game is going to feature an exciting matchup between Cal’s big man, Frison, and the Owl’s Michael Eric. At nearly every position, the size matchup favors the Owls and their overall experience and familiarity with each other will likely make the difference. I’m leaning towards the Owls…and will see what the line movement looks like tomorrow. HE

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-25-10, 12:46 AM

Temple -5
Murray State -2.5 Will do the write up later

CyMark · 11-25-10, 08:33 PM

I'm on it....love the Temple pick...trusting your wisdom on the Murray State play...BOL to us!

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-26-10, 01:21 AM

Well CY, it's another 1-1 night and hopefully you're getting reduced juice like me

. I'm 7/10 and if you played these and the Butler play, you're slightly better with 8/11. I may play one game tomorrow and will wait to see what the line does. The Murray State line did a 180 from when I locked it in to right before the game. Anyhow, hope your Thanksgiving was great! -HE

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-26-10, 02:34 PM

UCLA -2
UCLA is a physical team, much like Tennessee and I see this game playing out similar to the Rams' last loss. The Bruins' front court and 6th man Lane bring a lot of length to the court and the Rams key big man, Skeen is going to have a big roadblock in paint in the new round mound of pound, UCLA's Smith. I do see the Rams' backcourt playing well, but I think less second chance scoring opportunities, UCLA's balanced attack, and the possibly Skeen getting into some foul trouble will all end up in a Bruin cover.

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-27-10, 08:36 PM

0-1 yesterday. Picked UC Irvine -3 and Cincinnati -1 (leaning BYU, but couldn't pull the trigger) for today and am looking good so far. Also, tailed SJ's 1st quarter Magic play and made out nicely. Not real confident with the NBA, but SJ is an excellent capper and is probably enjoying the most success that I have seen. Was really wanting to watch the BYU St. Mary's game, if someone post a workable link, I'll give them 20 pts. thanks. -HE

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-27-10, 09:05 PM

This thread is sponsored by Kentucky Bulleit Bourbon...shit is good

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-29-10, 05:03 PM

tcu -3

CyMark · 11-29-10, 07:11 PM

Hey HE...I'm a Canuck and have never had the pleasure of trying Kentucky Bulleit Bourbon....might have to get my hands on some of that stuff for the holidays!I'm on the TCU game....I'm also going with Florida International +9.5

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-29-10, 07:27 PM

BOL to the both of us!

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-29-10, 10:38 PM

Random for this thread...but Espn's John Gruden must be an oracle...brings up Arizona's fg blocking capabilities and then they do it

I just hope SF hangs on and I come out with a clean 2-0 night.

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-30-10, 01:23 AM

For Tuesday...I like Clemson (currently -8) to hand Michigan a lopsided L. Clemson's guards are going to penetrate Michigan's defense and are going to draw fouls, create easy fg opportunities, and eventually open up the three ball, which Michigan has been pretty good at defending against. Clemson is 7th overall in FTA per FGA and Michigan can't afford to have their starting players get in foul trouble. I see the Michigan's big men struggling to help on Clemson's screens. On the defensive end, Clemson's veteran-laced backcourt is going to apply pressure to Michigan's guards via their man-2-man D, which will limit Michigan's 3 pt %...they attempt quite a few. Ultimately, Clemson's guards and Forward Jennings should have their way with Michigan tomorrow night.

CyMark · 11-30-10, 08:01 AM

awesome Clemson write-up...I'm on it!

Thanks for yesterdays TCU payout as well...I got lucking on the Florida International pick ....needed all of that 9.5 point spread.

High3rEl3m3nt · 11-30-10, 02:27 PM

Hope you were able to snag Clemson at -8. The line has moved against the public and now Pinnacle is offering even money on Michigan +9. Also, Bulleit Bourbon isn't overly priced here in the states...not sure what the markup is in Canada.

CyMark · 11-30-10, 04:41 PM

I tried to grab it this morning but the line wasn't posted yet....should I still take it at Clemson -9 ?

High3rEl3m3nt · 12-02-10, 05:20 PM

Lost the Clemson pick

...that program is in dire straights. Last night I almost had a clean sweep...and Providence's shitty play in the first half nearly erased itself as they got in gear and would have covered it weren't for a 3pth shot with 0.7 seconds to go that blew the 8 pt. lead. Oh well...you take some and you hopefully win more. Picked UC Irvine against San Diego, which was a pretty easy cover and New Mexico got things done against Southern Illinois. Tonight I like Rider to cover as a 5.5 fav against Manhattan and Tennessee Martin to stay within 18.5 pts of Morehead State.

High3rEl3m3nt · 12-03-10, 04:53 PM

Rider covers easily and ~~Tennessee Martin~~ makes for another split decision night. I was so close to laying a bet on Missouri last night, but am glad that I went with my gut and laid off them....but what a great team to watch when they're firing on all cylinders. So far today's card features public enemy number one for gamblers, but I think snagging Marist at +7 last night will lead to their first against the spread win this season. I also picked up Portland +4.5 today and like how they match up against Montana. Portland is one of the best 3 pt shooting teams right now, while Montana has excellent interior defense but has struggled to defend 3's. I see Portland finding their stroke and forcing Montana outside of their comfort zone, which will help to weaken Montana's defensive stronghold. If Portland struggles to find their range, this could get ugly...gamblers beware. Defensively for Portland, Montana has been a brick fest from beyond the three point line, which will open up Portland's ability to toggle between zone and man.

Enough about these games...the one that we should all be watching tonight is the match up between Kansas State and Washington State. I have been following the line movement since they came out last night (thank god for being able to work at home) and it has been all over the place (one point a PK), but hasn't moved much today, except for the juice adjustment. If the line moves another half point to +3 for Washington St., I might contemplate laying a small bet on them. Most likely I'll just enjoy watching this one because this is really Washington St's first test of the season. Kansas State has played Duke, Virginia Tech, and yes...this counts, Gonzaga. With that being said, their turnover percentage per possessions needs to recognize the quality of their opponents (219th overall) and their susceptibility to giving good takes from beyond the 3pt line, because their opponents have had effective big men that have forced their D to help. Kansas St. has also done an excellent job rebounding on both ends of the court. The quality of Washington State's inside offensive presence will get some clarification tonight...I want to know how good they really are ; ). Right now their 2pt effective field goal percentage is in the top 5, while their interior Defensive has also been effective. My X factors for the game are Kansas State is horrid from the free throw line. Kansas State has been successful at forcing opponent to play to their tempo...they like to slow their opponents and keep them in the 60s, while Washington likes a higher scoring game. Should be a dandy and best of luck if you are betting on this!!!