Goallines Streak breaker thread,,,>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

[GoldenYAK]

Streaks are pretty common in NHL. Maybe you could add a filter to get rid of playing teams who have less then .300 W-L or something similar.

[goallinebob]

Since we have a while to get to this 4 Wor L plateau we do have games to watch and poss play per my way to play the RLM but its more against the line changes ONLY

Line changes MUST be 1.5 or larger

Favorite -1.5 ,Line reduced lower from open,( So you play the DOG)similar to RLM WO all the other rules

Xavier,,, play the dog
S Fla
SMU
BYU
Clev St
Richmond
N/D
St Louis
play opposite all these favorites
____________________________________
-1.5 line favoring the Favorites ( Play them)
Virginia
Florida
Fla Atl
____________________________________
Favorites with larger line moves play opposite
MSU -2
Indinana St - 14
loy Chi - 9.5
Hawaii - 6.5
Port -4
I don't know how all these will play out but all have drastic line movements away from opening lines
________________________________________ ________________________________________ __
just opposite,,,,,,,,,,, line moves towards the favorite

Oregon open -3 now -8
SJS open -2 and now -4

________________________________________
How all these play out for first opening day for most will be interesting
i will be on all the -1.5 plays,for both the dog and favorite,,,

[goallinebob]

yak you could be right do you know if there is any past records to support that theory,,or something similar

[goallinebob]

as said i orig started all this in the Ncaab in january last year so the NBA and NHL was long into their seasons and others wanted to investigate its application in those sports,,,,,, as we all know there are way to many Ncaab games to concentrate on to mess with any other sports so others tried it and found some success,,,since we had time till ncaab gets rolling i just touched on the NHL and NBA awaiting a 4 team winner or loser,,to start the streak breaker system in ncaab

[GoldenYAK]

http://www.thephysicsofhockey.com/documents/streaks.pdf

Looks like there is actually evidence to support the opposite of what I thought...

teams with 3 game losing streak have w-l ratio of 1.6 or 61% chance
teams with 3 game winning streak have w-l ratio of .96 or 49%
teams with 2 game winning streak have w-l ratio of .94 or 48.5%

Maybe you should lower you streak threshold and see what happens,.. Do you have a nhl thread?

[goallinebob]

no as wanted to focus on ncaab,, as once this starts going it takes a lot of time just to handle ncaab,,,,,,thats why another took over that and another guy took over NBA,,as just too much if done properly

[goallinebob]

I'm not too sure about those stats as islanders are on a 8/9 game losing streak alone and caps i think are on a 6 game win streak,,thats why i selected the plays at 5 and 6

[goallinebob]

YAK sure looks good has anybody told the Islanders they are due to win,,,

[goallinebob]

i'm going to try and chart every fractional line movement in the NCAAB till we get some W/L streaks going after #4 is completed

as i currently have it t nites plays ncaab

-5 line moves to the negative or line drop ( ex -7.5 to -7,,,-12.5 to -12,as long as there is a .5 drop
these teams are expected to not cover( these lines are moving all ove rthe place so if change they are void
Mia Ohio
Temple
Cal San barb
NC St
MIss St
Minn
VCU
Understand this is just a .5 line drop

plays that i really like is the -1.5 drops following RLM,they are
749
751
759
771
797
815,,this has a -1 line drop,but looks good

[goallinebob]

what was the final result

plays that i really like is the -1.5 drops following RLM,they are
749,,,,,,,,,,,,,W
751,,,,,,,,,,,,,L
759,,,,,,,,,,,,,L
771,,,,,,,,,,,,,W
797,,,,,,,,,,,,,L
815,,this has a -1 line drop,but looks good,,,,,,,,,L

Appears i did not do well,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

[goallinebob]

went back over all games and lines i had,,,,,

.-5 to the negative went,,,,,4-4
.-5 to the positive ,,,3-1,,,need to watch these
-1 to the negative ( play Dog),,,,,,4-7,, dog wins 7
-1 to the positive ( play fav),,,1-2
-1.5 to the negative ( play Dog) went,,,3-4,,dog wins 4
-1.5 to the positive ( play fav ),,,,,went,,3-1,,need to watch these
favorites with odd lines to negative went 4-1,,,,,just opposite RLM plays
Lines that did not change went 3-4-1,, no edge here
________________________________________ ____________________
Not a very good showing for first opening of plays,,,,,,,,,,

[goallinebob]

in looking back over all games yesterday what have i learned from all these line changes

If i tempered all these line changes with omissions of large point spreads i would had done a hell of a lot better
thus the next large day i will only play games with a 10 point spread differential along with line changes,, as had i used that approach i would had gone,,5-1,,the one los was St Louis giving 7.5 and their opening line was -7.5 and at game time it was -7.5 so the diff was -1.5 to the positive saying play the favorite,,,,,
will this all play out next big day,????i have no idea but i will def factor this approach into my plays to see,,,,

[goallinebob]

correction their opening line was -7.5 but at game time it was -9 = -1.5 line move to the positive,,which to me was a play to the favorite,with a -1.5 line move in their favor,,

[goallinebob]

gonna post what the NBA and NHL plays should be,, too much Ncaaf and Ncaab running

NBA,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Orlando to win
Mia to win
port to win
__________________
O/U's( only 2 to break streak)
UTAH gm to go under
Mia gm to go under
__________________________________
NHL plays
Wash to lose
Tor to win
Islanders to win,,, on 9 losses,, so np as far beyond 5&6
_________________________________
O/U's,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Tor gm Over
Carolina gm Over
Atla gm Under
__________________________
thats it for streak plays in both sports
NYI gm Over

[goallinebob]

not many plays if following yesterdays results,,-1.5 in either direction 5-1 with less than 10 points

-1.5 line move,,,,,,,with spread below 10 points,,,

Ohio open -10-5 and,,, at game time -9 = -1.5 to the Negative so play was Delaware,,,,Lost 69-88,,,,

0-1 today,,, when reviewed it and ????? playing it,, just did not look good,,glad i stayed away but still a loss
Awaiting Cal Irvine to cover as only other -1.5 line drop

Lot of (2 line) moves today so will monitor them

Mason to the positive
Loy Chi to positive
Portland to the Negative play UC Davis
CMU to the positive
UAB to the negative play is SEMO
___________________________________
-3 line moves
Wisc Milw to the negative play Fla Atlantic
Oregon to the negative play Denver
______________________________
-3.5 line moves
Cal santa Barb to the positive play CSB
__________________________________
will continue to monitor these line changes to see if there is any merit in what to play

[goallinebob]

not many plays if following yesterdays results,,-1.5 in either direction 5-1 with less than 10 points

-1.5 line move,,,,,,,with spread below 10 points,,,

Ohio open -10-5 and,,, at game time -9 = -1.5 to the Negative so play was Delaware,,,,Lost 69-88,,,,

0-1 today,,, when reviewed it and ????? playing it,, just did not look good,,glad i stayed away but still a loss
Awaiting Cal Irvine to cover as only other -1.5 line drop damnnn PUSH to USC at -13

Lot of (2 line) moves today so will monitor them ( went 2-4)not good,,-2 to positive 2-2,,,2 to neg both won,,,,,not good expected opposite

Mason to the positive,,, winner
Loy Chi to positive,,,,,,,winner
Portland to the Negative play UC Davis,,,Port won,,,,,,,,,, loss
CMU to the positive,,,,,,,Loss
UAB to the negative play is SEMO,,,,UAB won so another loss
___________________________________
-3 line moves
Wisc Milw to the negative play Fla Atlantic,,winner
Oregon to the negative play Denver,,, Oregon covered so Loss
______________________________
-3.5 line moves
Cal santa Barb to the positive play CSB,, Loss
__________________________________
will continue to monitor these line changes to see if there is any merit in what to play

these line changes did not do well

[goallinebob]

streak play results

NBA,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Orlando to win,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,no cover loss
Mia to win,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,no cover Loss
port to win,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,no cover Loss
__________________
O/U's( only 2 to break streak)
UTAH gm to go under,,,,,,,,,,,,loss missed by 1 point
Mia gm to go under,,,,,,,,,,,,,,loss went over
__________________________________
NHL plays
Wash to lose,,,,,,,,,,,,,Winner
Tor to win,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,loss
Islanders to win,,, on 9 losses,, so np as far beyond 5&6,,,Lost again,,,,,
_________________________________
O/U's,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Tor gm Over,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,winner
Carolina gm Over,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,winner
Atla gm Under,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Push at 6
__________________________
thats it for streak plays in both sports
NYI gm Over,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Winner

appears O/U's working in the NHL

[mlb]

Nice stuff here goalline bob....so you would wait for either 4 ATS wins / Losses in a row and then go opposite the trend?

dude turn your pms on or delete some messages!

[jolmscheid]

Dude Idk what's up...I tried sending you a PM but no go...I'll talk to Willie Bee...what's up mlb?

[goallinebob]

sorry guys deleated almost all old e mails but only had 90 ,,,,,

[goallinebob]

Still not close to Ncaabb streak plays so just messing around with Line movements in ncaabb
and watching NBA and NHL,,,,,,,,,,but with all the football over weekennds had to concentrate on NBA and NHL,,,,,,,

what have i seen in Ncaabb so far

.5 line movements to the positive ( Examp,,, -7.5 to -8),,-.5 move to the positive ( Record 6-2 thru Sun)
.5 to the negative ( ex 9.5 to -9)-.5 drop,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(Record 6-4 thru Sun)
-1 to positive ( Ex -4 to -5),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,( Record 2-4 thru Sun)
-1 to negative( think you get it),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,( Record 8-11 thru Sun)
-1.5 to the positive,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,( These plays look interesting),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,( Record 5-1 thru Sun)
-2 to the positive,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,( Record 4-2 thru Sun)
-2 to the negative,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,( Just opposite what were looking for),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(Record 3-0 thru Sun)
plays where lines did not move from opening line ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,Record 6-9-1 thru Sun)

What i have found is lines -1.5 to either negative or Positive and Point Spread is 10 or less the 1.5 plays went 5-1

all this is recorded from the 12th to yesterday,, There were larger #'s also but too few to get a feel for,, i will watch for future post

[goallinebob]

correction


but with all the football over weekennds had to concentrate on NBA and NHL,,,,,,,

But with all the football over weekend did not concentrate on NHL or NBA

[goallinebob]

per Sports insights we have 18 ncaab games t nite and if lines remain the same we have

4,,, -.5 plays to the Positive,,,,,,,
Pacific
Rutgers
Providence
Alabama
________________
One -.5 play to the Negative,,
Georgetown
__________________________
One -1 plays to the positive
Memphis
__________________________
Three plays to -1 to the negative
Kansas
Richmond
St Marys
_____________________________
One -2 play to the Positive
Stanford
__________________________
Two - 2.5 plays to the positive
VCA
Minn
_______________________________
One -2.5 play to Negative
USC
__________________________
One - 3 to the Positive
Montana St
__________________________
One -3 play to the Negative
UCLA
_____________________________
Three plays that lines have not changed
Clemson
Chattanooga
wake
_________________________________
Hopefully this is everything,, should be 18 games listed in various forms
___________________________

[goallinebob]

So what are the stronger or better plays using line movements only,,,


.5 line movements to the positive ( Record 6-2 thru Sun),,we have 4 plays t nite
Pacific
Rutgers
Providence
Alabama
_______________________

One -2 play to the Positive,,,,( 4-2)
Stanford
____________________________
-1 to positive ( Record 2-4),, so play this opposite and turn it around to 4-2 and play Miami
Memphis

____________________________

[goallinebob]

14-6 looks pretty good if all this plays out after just reviewing the last 4 days of this season,,

[goallinebob]

After spending a;; afternoon on these plays this is what i will do

Richmond
Providence
St Marys,, loved them last year
Wake
VCU,, 101 points last start tells me surely they can cover t nite
Nevada those 87 points last start and at home
Cal Full has two games under their belt and Montana St just looks weaker in their last 2 starts,,
Clemson should handle Wofford and at home
Rutgers looks too good against Fairfield
leaning Siena but will pass
Memphis should cover but not happy with line moves with a 1,,
Like GT but 22.5 is a lot of points this early so will watch and pass
USC looks good but again will watch and pass
Stanford should prevail over SD,,,another watch and pass

[Gtownguy487]

goal... What do you think about 1H Memphis -4?

[goallinebob]

just getting back,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,been very busy at office so not much to post,,,don't even know how all games came out yesterday and in all honesty awaiting teams to get 4 wins/Losses under their belts,, still testing the waters

Plays looked at and will wager on today so the hell of it

VCU
Pepp
Ucla
Syrc
Duke
dePaul


lets see how these play out,,,

been trying to analize these RLM's and line changes are all over the place,,,

[goallinebob]

Most of these plays posted are teams that appear as scoring machines over 3 days,,,,,, what the hell is left to make decisions this early in season,,,,had Lasalle earlier but no post so does not count but in my wallett,,,

[goallinebob]

1 Loyola-Chicago,,,,,,,,3-0-0
2 Portland,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3-0-0
3 North Dakota State 3-0-0
4 ,,,,,,Uc davis,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0-3-0
5,,,,,,,Denver,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0-3-0

these teams getting close to the # 4

[goallinebob]

now that i have time,,,,,,,,,,,,,,post yest results

After spending a;; afternoon on these plays this is what i will do

Richmond,,,,,,,,,,,
Providence,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Is Yale that good
St Marys,, loved them last year,,,damnnn Push
Wake,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,win but no cover,,
VCU,, 101 points last start tells me surely they can cover t nite,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,winner,,
Nevada those 87 points last start and at home,,,,,,Knew better,,,
Cal Full has two games under their belt and Montana St just looks weaker in their last 2 starts,,
Clemson should handle Wofford and at home,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Missed by 2.5,,,,
Rutgers looks too good against Fairfield,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Easy
leaning Siena but will pass,,,,,Cover
Memphis should cover but not happy with line moves with a 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Glad i stayed away
Like GT but 22.5 is a lot of points this early so will watch and pass,,,,,,,,,,,knew to many points,,,
USC looks good but again will watch and pass,,,,,,,,,,won but no cover missed by 1.5,,,
Stanford should prevail over SD,,,another watch and pass,,,,,,,,,,,,,,won and covered by 3.5

[goallinebob]

gonna post other games that looked promising to me,, but will just watch and get smarter

texas tech
Akron
NIU
Cal
Zaga
Tenn
EWU +31
wyo

[goallinebob]

missed RI
and Nova

need to work on tomorrows games but think all go off late,,,,

[goallinebob]

duke 22-6,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

[mlb]

Dude Idk what's up...I tried sending you a PM but no go...I'll talk to Willie Bee...what's up mlb?

dude pm me! haha