Goallines Streak breaker thread,,,>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

[goallinebob]

jolmscheid,,, i'm far from a Pro,,just play various angels i like in various sports

i'm not much of a NBA wager player or NHL,, and if do i usually just go against win streaks of 4 and 5 even more
but the ncaab takes so much time i usually just play that sport,,,,Better to play one properly than jump all around,,

from this i'm ready for my best MLB and 5 inn plays

best starter vs best starter,,,,and who gets the most team support

i'm not a big NFL player either but i do dabble in some RLM's in both that and Ncaaf,,

[jolmscheid]

Ok no problem Bob...so for your 5 inning plays, do you have a filter? Basically playing the team with the better starter for the first 5 innings?? That seems interesting...look forward to your reply Bob!

[goallinebob]

and can't forget my home /away Bowl stupid system that went 15-2 till i backed off last week or so

[goallinebob]

no its more about who allows the most runs or era thru 5 innings,, i do monitor the game thru 9 also with additional pitchers and bull Pen and managerial moves

[goallinebob]

In MLB,, what i do is first
I compile every starter for every team with their own record sheet bot AL and NL

then i follow and chart what they allow in 5 and thru 9 inn as for me who ever the starter is they get the W or L in both the 5 and 9 inn game regardless who comes in to replace him or not

that is one hell of a file i use,,,,every starter for every team for both leagues,,

[jolmscheid]

Yea Bob...your Bowl system...how long have you been doing that? You basically just start with the top team and then go to the bottom team the next game etc? So you just go top, bottom, top, bottom the whole way? That seems weird but it looks like it works for you! And you just do X, 2X?

Last question for you on MLB...do you think taking the BETTER pitcher + BETTER hitting team the first 5 innings would be profitable? That way you don't have to worry about a team's bullpen?

Thanks Bob!

[goallinebob]

that way i have at hand all past pitching performances and i then compare both starters pitching that day and i usually can find the winner for 5 ,,,as normally they both will pitch complete the first 5,, after 5 too many other tangibles come into play relievers,, managerial mistakes,,bull pen blunders,, all this rarely happens in first 5 so you have a more PURE contest between just the 2 starters,,,no other involvements,,

[goallinebob]

you also must apply TEAM SUPPORT in the wager,,,,,,you can have a gret starter like halladay but if phils don't support him what good is the play,, do they score runs for him,, do they play errorless ball for him,,

[goallinebob]

Love exhibition ball too can win a lot of money parlaying the continueous winners from day to day with out even knowing who is in the line up also games can go 4 5 6 7 inn and be called as weather or other things happen and they just call end to game ,,,,

last year one game was called after 4 inn due to bees on field and was a complete game,,,

[goallinebob]

also in 5 inn you get a lot of pushes rather than a loss as you get in 9 inn and extra inn

[goallinebob]

for me if a starter gets the Wor L regardless if he finishes game or not that tells me if he gets the support if and when he leaves the game and i chart it for 5 inn and 9 inn so i know who gets support and who does not,,

[goallinebob]

and after about 6 games you will get the feel of who is and who does not,, will this happen every game,,, No,,, but it will more than not

[goallinebob]

what i do with every Starter is chart the runs allowed thru 5 inn
then i chart runs allowed inn 5-9 regrdless of pitcher to end of game incl xtra inn if occurs
this gives me runs alloed in 5 and thru end of game
Example
NYY,, Sabathia MLB year 2010

1-5 inn,,2-0-1-4-1-1-3-3-0-6-4-1-2-3-0-1-0-1-0-3-3-2-3-2-1-1-0 5-0-5-0-3-1-1 runs allowed in 5 inn
6-end,,,,6-0-0-0-2-0-0-3-7-0-9-2-0-0-0-0-2-0-2-1-1-2-0-0-2-1-0-4-0-1-1-0-9-0 runs allow thru end
this is his box score last year ,, last post was Sept 28th

[goallinebob]

i have this on file for every starter last year in both leagues,,

[jolmscheid]

Nice Bob! So do you think this would work?

I look at a legitimate power rating of the pitchers and a power rating of that pitcher's team's hitting....IF there is a game where I show that the power rating of the pitcher AND their batting is better than the other team, then that would be a play?

What do you think??

[goallinebob]

I love parlaying MLB as that eliminates a lot of juice to deal with

and i have photo copies of all major parlay winners,,, some are 8 Teamer's,,,,too

[goallinebob]

It looks as a winner to me,,,,,, but we all know in MLB things seem to balance out as they all go on streaks to the win and loss column,,,,,,,thats why i like 5 inn more i do not need to deal with the full game,, but if i see no runs alloed in 6-9 i will jump in a nd alos play a lot of UNDERS for game if both starters show great stuff

I would suggest anything you do you play what you think will work and wager light until you see a pattern happening

[goallinebob]

If you have a Halladay and say Lincecum ,, immediately you think UNDER both in 5 and 9,,now odds makers will post a very low # but i don't let that sway me i still will play the under,,,,

[goallinebob]

and just the opposite if you have two garbage starters

[goallinebob]

my post at covers last year for that day Posted: 7/2/2010 10:03:57 PM



Romero 5 inn past
5-4-0-1-5-1-2-4-1-0-1,,,,nyy can't hit
Pettitte 5 past
4-1-0-6-1-1-1-2-3-2-5
_______________
Romero 9 inn past
6-7-0-4-8-1-2-5-1-1-2,, lets go jays do it again
Pettitte 9 past
4-5-1-8-2-2-3-3-7-3-6
__________________
Lester 5 past
0-0-1-2-1-0-0-0-0-3-2-1-1,, damnnn good
Guthrie 9 past
2-3-7-4-3-1-1-1-3-0-4-2-4-3
__________________________________
Lester 9 past
3-0-1-3-7-2-0-1-2-8-2-2-1
Guthrie 9 past
4-4-8-4-3-1-4-1-6-8-5-6-0-3,, are to to assume Guthrie can win this,,,,
________________________________________ ___________
Hunter 5 past
1-3-2-2-1
Danks 5 past
4-0-0-1-0-0-0-3-5,, some thing wrong with Danks
Hunter 9 past
1-3-3-3-1
Danks 9 past
6-2-3-3-2-0-10-1-16-8,,,,thats being nice Bob
Lester 5 past
0-0-1-2-1-0-0-0-0-3-2-1-1,, damnnn good
Guthrie 5 past
2-3-7-4-3-1-1-1-3-0-4-2-4-3
__________________________________
Lester 9 past
3-0-1-3-7-2-0-1-2-8-2-2-1
Guthrie 9 past
4-4-8-4-3-1-4-1-6-8-5-6-10-3,, are to to assume Guthrie can win this,,,,

________________________________________ _____

[jolmscheid]

Sounds good Bob! Thanks!!

[goallinebob]

need to go and watch Eagles game,,, see you later,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

[khaden]

Nice hit on umass!

[madmiek]

Wow dayton didnt cover.. very nice

[goallinebob]

minnesota at 0-6 Covers,,,
Purdue at 4-0 goes to 5-0 but below our wager level,,
St Louis at 0-8 covers,,,
Youngstown St at 0-8 Covers,,,,
Cen Mich at 0-4 covers,but below our level,,,
Mia Ohio at 0-5 covers ,,,
DAYTON at 7-0 does not cover,,,,,,,,,,,,, Big System play,,, Big money win
________________________________________ _
now need Xavier,, at 0-7,,,,a Push in between does not stop W/L streaks for me
also some level 4's yet to see outcome


a Great day for STREAK plays,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

[goallinebob]

NO Teams can get past 7 wins in a row,,,,,,,, so far this year,,,

[goallinebob]

thought i'd repost this from page #2 of thread but was for Jan last year

Win Streaks 0-1-09 thru 01-25-09

3-0 win streaks went,,,38-42
4-0 win streaks went,,,17-25
5-0 win streaks went,,,12-13
6-0 win streaks went,,,8-5
7-0 win streaks went,,,3-2
8-0 win streaks went,,,1-1
9-0 win streaks went,,,1-0
no streak reached 10

[goallinebob]

think i erred and was for some games in Dec but it is interesting to see the comparison,,,

if played 5-0 and chased once to 6-0 to not cover =20-5
if played 6-0 and 7-0 to not cover =11-2

pretty damnnn close to this year

[goallinebob]

this year

7-0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(2-0)
6-0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(7-3),,,= 9-0
2010/2011
6-0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(7-3)
5-0,,,,,,,,,,,,,(15-13),,, 5-0 and 6-0 = 22-3

[goallinebob]

If that doesn't say something ,,, i need to stop gambling

[goallinebob]

Xavier at 0-7 will cover EASILY ,,,

what a great day for streaks ,,,,

[madmiek]

think i erred and was for some games in Dec but it is interesting to see the comparison,,,

if played 5-0 and chased once to 6-0 to not cover =20-5
if played 6-0 and 7-0 to not cover =11-2

pretty damnnn close to this year

What would last years record for 5-0 and chased to 8-0 be?

[jolmscheid]

I like it Bob...Chase 5-0 to 6-0...then if that doesn't win, then start the chase again for 7-0 to 8-0??

[Axis]

Wichita State was 4-0 going into today with Missouri State, so I took MSU +5.5...lookin' good so far!!

[jolmscheid]

Hey Bob could you give some insight to some of us about the best way to play these streaks?

1) Playing AGAINST all ATS win streaks of 4+ games is profitable betting STRAIGHT
2) Is it better to do a conservative chase? Example. X, 2X, 3X, 4X, 5X
3) Is it better to do a chase like this? Example. X, 2X, X, 2X
4) Is it better to do a 1, 2, or 3 line labouchere?

Thanks as always for your help Bob...I just want to attack this the right way...