[Fred The Hammer]

Hello Hammertime, lol, thanks for some used info

Youngstown popped another Over with a big 2H

[HeeluvaGuy]

Another great nite 6-1, great work

Thanks guys. Last night was a good one for sure. Hope to keep it going.

[KnuckleHeadz]

Thanks guys. Last night was a good one for sure. Hope to keep it going.

Thanks again HG!!
Wish I went with a parlay but this was still a solid payout..

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks again HG!!
Wish I went with a parlay but this was still a solid payout..

Excellent. But I wish you had let me know to leave off the Charlotte game.

[KnuckleHeadz]

Excellent. But I wish you had let me know to leave off the Charlotte game.

I went with the 6 my book had at the time!

[svsooner]

Damn good call on the Boise St/UNM under, but OT is going to do you in.

[svsooner]

Tailing your Furman/Wofford over 146 play. Was looking bleak early, but now it looks like we'll hit! Thanks!!!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Tailing your Furman/Wofford over 146 play. Was looking bleak early, but now it looks like we'll hit! Thanks!!!

[matt711]

Damnnnnn 4-0-1 great night again! Thanks

[barnstorm]

Ayo also pulled a 4-1 last night but I missed his Missouri play. Still, I'll take 3-1 plus Heeluva Guy's 4-0-1 any night!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Damnnnnn 4-0-1 great night again! Thanks

Ayo also pulled a 4-1 last night but I missed his Missouri play. Still, I'll take 3-1 plus Heeluva Guy's 4-0-1 any night!

Thanks guys. Stars (mostly) aligned last night. I can live with the Miami push since the Central Michigan under hit by the skin of my teeth, but the greedy part of me wanted the 5-0.

[barnstorm]

Another good night, last night, although I had to push Sanford and Chicago State over 133.5! Barely made it. Chicago State was down like 6 or 7 with a minute to go and they were still milking the shot clock! WTH! I was screaming at the TV! Fortunately, they were both in the Bonus and both made a very good % of Free Throws. Whew!

[HeeluvaGuy]

You pushed on 137? That sucks. I went to sleep early in the second half when it was clear Chi St was going to regress big time from their 1st half showing. Pleasantly surprised to see a winner in the morning.

[barnstorm]

You pushed on 137? That sucks. I went to sleep early in the second half when it was clear Chi St was going to regress big time from their 1st half showing. Pleasantly surprised to see a winner in the morning.

No, I had 134, so I also got the over and the win with the last basket and last two foul shots. Good thing they had like 74 in the first half. Second halves are usually more, but not this game.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Ah. I misread your post. Your work in getting that one over the finish line is much appreciated.

[coolguy73739]

Hey HeeluvaGuy, Congrats for a winning run so far this season.
Just one question, do you go through last season or present H2H between two teams and their recent scores ( last 3 or last 5?) before deciding your Under or Over? Does your pick is influenced by those numbers or you never look at H2H and purely go with the number your model suggesting?
What I understand so far is for some games, Line is always kept partly based on H2H and Psychological factors where Books try to sway bettors in one direction.
Thanks in advance..

[HeeluvaGuy]

Hey HeeluvaGuy, Congrats for a winning run so far this season.
Just one question, do you go through last season or present H2H between two teams and their recent scores ( last 3 or last 5?) before deciding your Under or Over? Does your pick is influenced by those numbers or you never look at H2H and purely go with the number your model suggesting?
What I understand so far is for some games, Line is always kept partly based on H2H and Psychological factors where Books try to sway bettors in one direction.
Thanks in advance..

I do look at recent matchups, but that falls into what I consider the “soft factors” in my handicapping. I never put much weight on any one game since one game is pretty meaningless in the grand scheme. (IMO the books know this, but they also understand recency bias, which I think is what you’re getting at to some extent.)

When I’m looking at historical matchups I’m primarily looking at the pace of the games as opposed to the efficiencies. Because of that, it’s only really helpful if the same coaches are coaching since coaching style in college dictates the pace of play almost completely.

As far as “soft factors” go, I generally use them to find a reason to pass on a game that I have already identified in my model as a potential pick. I say “generally” because on rare occasions I will use the soft factors to increase my bet size if the matchup is particularly conducive to the pick.

[coolguy73739]

Thanks for your comments. Appreciate.
What I understand is you don't give much importance to recency bias. Correct?
I am always heavily inclined onto recency bias and trying hard to come out of that mindset but finding difficult to do so..
Although I must add for some games it does help me in predicting result.
Thanks for your insight.
I'm also on Betstamp user SunnyMax.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I think there’s a difference between one game and a trend of recent performance. Like a hand of poker, no one game is particularly meaningful, but how a team has played in its last x games might be.

This time of year you see a lot of folks say stuff like: “They played two weeks ago and xzy happened so I’m betting on xyz to happen again.” I avoid that kind of thinking.

[coolguy73739]

I don't follow any TREND per se but when last H2H between two teams is low and total points were 115, 118, 122 Let's says especially for teams like Fresno St and Boise St , invariably posted Line has a bearing based on those scores even though my model is predicting a high scoring game and that's when the whole confusion and dilemma starts.. Thanks

[Fred The Hammer]

Decided to load up on Youngstown Over 150 last night. Glad I shopped around because everyone had 150.5 except for Caesars. Thought it was a winner at 76-73 with :44 seconds left, but Oakland decided to play defense and not foul. I don't get that? Foul if you can't get a steal and extend the game. College kids can't make 2 FTs to save their life anyway

[HeeluvaGuy]

Decided to load up on Youngstown Over 150 last night. Glad I shopped around because everyone had 150.5 except for Caesars. Thought it was a winner at 76-73 with :44 seconds left, but Oakland decided to play defense and not foul. I don't get that? Foul if you can't get a steal and extend the game. College kids can't make 2 FTs to save their life anyway

Yeah, that was frustrating. I don’t know the percentages in that situation, but my lizard brain says the way they played forced them to be perfect on two plays: get a defensive stop and make a three with 10-15 seconds on the shot clock. If they foul they have more outs and more possessions to get there.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Absolute bloodbath the last two days.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Absolute bloodbath the last two days.

You deserve credit for posting.

Results can be maddening. Variance on totals can be tough.

[HeeluvaGuy]

There's no hiding from the results. I can take my lumps.

[coolguy73739]

Hi @Heeluvaguy, you are doing good, this is just temporary rut and you will overcome. Pretty sure of that.
Why don't you get displayed on Featured users and Hammer Creators on Betstamp with such a good record?

[HeeluvaGuy]

I was a featured user for a bit last season, but at the time I was tagging Betstamp on Twitter somewhat regularly. I had a few DM exchanges with some of those guys around that time as well. I don't know if they even have criteria for who makes the list, but I'm pretty sure you have to do something other than just make winning picks to catch their attention. I'm off of Twitter now, so I don't have much interaction with them any more.

And I honestly don't know what that Hammer thing is. Looks like some kind of YouTube for sports betting content. Last thing I'm interested in is churning out content and creating some kind of internet personality. Aside from an aversion to spending my time that way, I'm also just not much of a self-promoter.

[coolguy73739]

I was under the impression that you have to pay these guy some kind of subscription to be on their list of featured users.
There has to be an automatic way of getting promoted to featured users if you are doing exceptionally good with you picks result.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I reached out and asked them just out of curiosity.

[barnstorm]

I'm also on Betstamp user SunnyMax.

Good discussion and points.

Will follow you on BetStamp.

GLTA.

[coolguy73739]

Good discussion and points.

Will follow you on BetStamp.

GLTA.

Thank You for being MY FIRST FOLLOWER.. Appreciate it.

[matt711]

Good nite last nite Helluvaguy, I got screwed on Texas total, 148, waited to long, now your moving lines, lol!

[barnstorm]

Cuse and Virginia should have gone over also. Cuse decided to play for one stop, so they sat back in their 2-3 Zone and didn't even try to press or steal from Virginia, hoping for a miss. They didn't get it and didn't hit their 3 down at the other end and then foul which would hav given us another chance to go over. Between Cuse's Zone and Virginia's Snail Ball, it's risking backing either of those teams in an Over wager.

Baylor did just enough to push the Texas game over. Sorry you didn't get the lower number, Matt.

Oral Roberts had to score 103 to get that one over by 3, and Colgate only went over by 2.

GL tonight. I like the Overs, but am afraid of that Boise State Under as they usually play fast and can score. Will Air Force slow them down enough? Might be a no-play for me.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Definitely some good fortune last night. I was 4 points from 4-0 (3 from 3-0-1) and 9 points from 0-4.

That ORU game was something. That was South Dakota’s worst offensive efficiency of the season but we got the over because their defense is atrocious. Not every day you hit an over with one team having their worst offensive game of the season.

As far as Boise/AF goes, I wouldn’t touch it at the current number. GL tonight!

[Renegades]

Where do you post the plays?