[CGBatch]

Last year was my third year posting my plays to SBR. All my plays are documented in this thread http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...679-l2yrs.html. In short, I created a model for NCAA Basketball three years ago that I've backtested to hit about 54%. It focuses primarily on totals, but a smaller quantity of sides will also be released. I struggled a bit to adjust to the new 30 second shot clock last year on my totals which resulted in some poor early season results, but we bounced back and, if you're like me and take advantage of reduced juice, profited. Starting today I'll be posting my plays daily here, I can't guarantee a specific time as my work schedule varries, but my goal is by around 5pm. Especially for the weekend releases there may be multiple releases as all information for the night games isn't available when the noon games tip.

My results from the last few seasons:

	2015-2016	2014-2015	2013-2014	L3 Years
Overall Win/Loss	439-405	445-365	376-332	1260-1102
Units Earned (@-110)	-6.5	43.5	10.8	47.8
Win Rate	52.01%	54.94%	53.11%	53.34%
Sides	92-83	157-126	88-91	337-300
Totals	347-322	288-239	288-241	923-802

This season I've been off to a flyer, I'm 132-97 (18-15 Sides and 114-82 Totals) for 57.64% +25.3 Units. I know these numbers might sounds incredible, but I've provided screen-caps of my graded wagers. Ordinarily I had intended to begin posting my plays at the start of the season, but I've been bogged down with my two jobs the last few weeks and I'm planning to move house in a month. Then when I got off to such a hot start I got superstitious about posting the plays, but now I've figured it's 1 December it's time to begin posting. A few tweaks I've made this year including reducing the number of conferences we focus on during conference play by two (obviously won't take effect until January but this is a very minor change only affecting about 7-8% of plays) and the biggest change I've noticed my numbers tend to peak by the end of January, so I've significantly increased the threshold required to be a play in the month of February, this should reduce Febraury plays by as much as 80% to only focus on the best bets.

There's some RAS plays sprinkled in with my plays, my system doesn't do 2nd half plays
http://prnt.sc/de5cuy
http://prnt.sc/de5dl5
http://prnt.sc/de5dsq
http://prnt.sc/de5dxk
http://prnt.sc/de5e12
http://prnt.sc/de5e5h
http://prnt.sc/de5e9x
http://prnt.sc/de5ee9

With that said let's get to the good stuff!

November Results

Sides (18-15 ytd)
Totals (114-82 ytd)
Overall (132-97 ytd)

727 Montana St +17.0	at Utah
721 TX-San Ant +8.0	at Cal Poly
719 Cincinnati +7.0	at Iowa State

727 Under 146.0

Montana St at Utah

[CGBatch]

1 December Results

Sides 2-1 (20-16 ytd)
Totals 0-1 (114-83 ytd)
Overall 2-2 (134-99 ytd)

3 December Plays:

863 Alcorn State +25.5	at California
759 San Diego St -5.5	at Loyola-Chi
868 Oregon -35.0	vs Savannah St
723 DePaul +16.0	at Northwestern

739 Under 144.5	Rice at Texas Tech
749 Over 135.0	W Kentucky at Missouri
767 Over 134.0	Wichita St at Colorado St
773 Over 127.5	N Iowa at Wyoming
775 Under 133.0	Oklahoma at Wisconsin
843 Under 160.0	Detroit at Murray St
795 Over 135.0	Kansas St at Saint Louis
733 Under 134.5	St Josephs at Villanova
823 Under 140.5	Morehead St at Purdue
723 Under 135.5	DePaul at Northwestern
837 Under 159.5	Idaho State at Cal St Nrdge
845 Under 151.5	Belmont at Pepperdine
819 Under 169.5	Neb Omaha at Iowa
769 Over 132.5	Boise State at Evansville
841 Under 139.5	Oral Roberts at Michigan St
839 Over 129.0	Mercer at Geo Mason
735 Over 130.5	Fordham at Harvard
861 Under 147.0	Central Ark at Butler
787 Under 158.0	Akron at Creighton
741 Under 141.0	Oregon St at Charlotte
725 Under 172.5	UCLA at Kentucky

[Louisvillekid1]

Gl buddy

[CGBatch]

3 December Results

Sides 2-2 (22-18 ytd)
Totals 9-12 (123-95 ytd)
Overall 11-14 (145-113 ytd)

4 December Plays:

525 Under 134.0	Manhattan at St Peters
521 Under 152.5	Florida St vs Geo Wshgtn
529 Over 147.0	Canisius at Monmouth

[CGBatch]

A 2-1 day that shouldn't have been, I forgot the MAAC start conference games ungodly early, we only cover Spreads, not Totals from the MAAC so the Monmouth v Canisius Over that won and the Manhattan v St. Peter's Under that lost, shouldn't have been plays, so we're back to square one. I discovered this because we have a MAAC Spread today (and the Over would have been a play here).

4 December Results

Sides 0-0 (22-18 ytd)
Totals 1-0 (124-95 ytd)
Overall 1-0 (146-113 ytd)

5 December Plays:

729 Siena -4.5

at Rider

733 Under 146.0

WI-Milwkee at Montana St

[xdodger19]

maac basketball its fantastic

[CGBatch]

Small loss yesterday, back with some more plays today. I missed that the line fell from 137 to 135 in the Boise St/Loyola Marymount game so that should have been a play as well. On days I post my plays early like today, I'll keep any eye out for line movement that might add or subtract plays later.

5 December Results

Sides 0-1 (22-19 ytd)
Totals 1-1 (125-96 ytd)
Overall 1-2 (147-115 ytd)

6 December Plays:

563 Under 157.5	IPFW at Notre Dame
517 Under 149.0	La Salle vs Villanova
537 Under 154.0	Fresno St at Marquette
523 Under 146.0	Bradley at Ball State
519 Under 156.0	Youngs St at Michigan St
545 Under 136.0	Saint Louis at Wichita St

edit: Some crazy line movement on this one (RAS play?), we're going to hop on here

557 Over 146.5

Florida vs Duke

edit 2: We're going with these as well

539 Over 133.5	Bowling Grn at Evansville
535 Under 142.0	Brown at Providence

[CGBatch]

Small win yesterday, back with some more plays today. Might add some more later, does anyone care if I edit this post or should I bump with a new post?

6 December Results

Sides 0-1 (22-19 ytd)
Totals 5-4 (130-100 ytd)
Overall 5-4 (152-119 ytd)

7 December Plays:

727 Harvard (Pick)	at Boston Col
721 Butler -9.0	at Indiana St
747 Xavier -2.0	at Colorado
782 N Iowa -10.5	vs S Dakota St

777 Under 133.0	Idaho State at Wisconsin
743 Under 150.0	Wright State at Loyola-Chi
761 Under 168.5	Washington at Gonzaga
751 Under 141.5	TX El Paso at New Mexico
725 Under 145.5	W Michigan vs Cleveland St
723 Over 131.5	S Illinois at Louisville
735 Under 161.0	Detroit at Toledo
775 Under 136.0	North Dakota at N Dakota St
737 Under 146.5	Geo Wshgtn at Temple

edit: add

769 Over 146.5

E Illinois at N Kentucky

[CGBatch]

Even day yesterday, the Northern Iowa spread fell out of the system even thought it won, but the Maryland/Howard Under got added late. I'm sorry about line movement or added games, I'm trying to figure out a better way to handle these things. I structure my plays around the closing line (with the hope we get in early at a better price) because my 8 years of data is based upon closing lines, therefore I want my plays to accurately represent the data that they've been modeled after.

7 December Results

Sides 1-2 (23-21 ytd)
Totals 6-5 (136-105 ytd)
Overall 7-7 (159-126 ytd)

8 December Plays:

525 Nicholls St +27.0

at Florida St

521 Under 140.5	TX-Arlington at St Marys
517 Under 134.5	Vanderbilt at Middle Tenn

[CGBatch]

8 December Results

Sides 0-1 (23-22 ytd)
Totals 2-0 (138-105 ytd)
Overall 2-1 (161-127 ytd)

9 December Plays:

723 Under 158.0

Longwood at Creighton

edit: add

719 Over 147.5

GA Southern at Minnesota

[CGBatch]

Normal big Saturday, I'm traveling so I might not be able to update if there are some late adds

9 December Results

Sides 0-0 (23-22 ytd)
Totals 0-2 (138-107 ytd)
Overall 0-2 (161-129 ytd)

10 December Plays:

541 Tulane -1.5	at S Mississippi
523 Arizona -7.0	at Missouri
563 Connecticut +8.5	at Ohio State
585 Loyola Mymt +2.0	at Cal St Nrdge

601 Under 140.5	TN Tech at Michigan St
607 Under 158.0	E Kentucky at Ball State
575 Under 136.5	Wash State vs Kansas St
541 Under 145.5	Tulane at S Mississippi
637 Over 134.5	Idaho at S Dakota St
537 Under 147.5	Wisconsin at Marquette
619 Over 147.0	IUPUI at Miami (OH)
565 Under 169.5	Toledo at Marshall
594 Under 146.5	Villanova vs Notre Dame
599 Under 152.5	VA Military at W Virginia
579 Under 150.5	Michigan at UCLA
523 Over 134.5	Arizona at Missouri
605 Under 146.5	E Tenn St at Dayton
563 Under 131.0	Connecticut at Ohio State
649 Under 153.5	Houston Bap at Indiana
531 Under 137.0	Cleveland St at Purdue
651 Under 156.5	N Florida at Arkansas
577 Over 126.0	VCU at Old Dominion
643 Under 135.0	Jksnville St at LA Monroe
645 Under 162.5	S Utah at CS Fullerton
559 Over 146.0	Utah at Xavier
641 Under 165.0	Montana St at Neb Omaha

[CGBatch]

Good winning day for us!

11 December Results

Sides 3-0 (26-22 ytd)
Totals 12-9 (150-116 ytd)
Overall 15-9 (176-138 ytd)

12 December Plays:

739 Under 162.5	Savannah St at Oregon St
713 Over 127.0	Delaware at Yale
741 Under 135.0	New Orleans at Northwestern
735 Under 120.5	UC Irvine at St Marys
738 Under 147.5	St Johns at LIU-Brooklyn
725 Under 130.0	Alabama at Oregon
717 Under 149.5	Florida at Florida St

[CGBatch]

12 December Results

Sides 0-0 (26-22 ytd)
Totals 4-3 (154-119 ytd)
Overall 4-3 (180-141 ytd)

13 December Plays:

521 Jksnville St +14.0

at Maryland

[CGBatch]

12 December Results

Sides 0-1 (26-23 ytd)
Totals 0-0 (154-119 ytd)
Overall 0-1 (180-142 ytd)

13 December Plays:

713 Under 138.5

Temple at Villanova

[CGBatch]

13 December Results

Sides 0-0 (26-23 ytd)
Totals 1-0 (155-119 ytd)
Overall 1-0 (181-142 ytd)

14 December Plays:

532 Wisconsin -21.5	vs WI-Grn Bay
521 LA Lafayette +9.5	at Georgia

531 Under 148.0	WI-Grn Bay at Wisconsin
541 Under 140.0	Middle Tenn at Belmont
543 Under 148.0	Arkansas St at TN Martin
545 Under 145.5	Oral Roberts at Missouri St
547 Under 136.5	UC Davis at N Dakota St
537 Under 163.0	UCSB at UCLA
523 Under 139.0	WI-Milwkee at Ohio

[CGBatch]

Not our finest night, lost a few by a meaningless basket at the end. We'll get a couple back tonight.

14 December Results

Sides 0-2 (26-25 ytd)
Totals 2-5 (152-124 ytd)
Overall 2-7 (183-149 ytd)

15 December Plays:

719 Over 146.0	Coastal Car at Auburn
713 Over 119.5	Col Charlestn at E Carolina

[CGBatch]

One game went way over and the over was way under

15 December Results

Sides 0-0 (26-25 ytd)
Totals 1-1 (153-125 ytd)
Overall 1-1 (184-150 ytd)

16 December Plays:

521 Fla Atlantic +19.0

at Miami (FL)

527 Under 139.0	Lg Beach St vs Oregon St
525 Over 147.0	South Dakota vs Portland
535 Under 158.0	Portland St at San Fransco
529 Over 148.0	Drexel at Rider

[CGBatch]

16 December Results

Sides 1-0 (27-25 ytd)
Totals 2-1 (160-126 ytd)
Overall 3-1 (187-151 ytd)

17 December Plays:

759 Cal Poly +19.5	at California
737 Delaware +21.0	at Seton Hall
721 Texas Tech -6.0	at Richmond
775 Manhattan +24.0	vs Florida St
783 Ohio State +9.0	vs UCLA
803 E Illinois +8.0	at Missouri

737 Over 135.5	Delaware at Seton Hall
805 Over 135.0	SIU Edward at Saint Louis
779 Under 148.5	Purdue vs Notre Dame
801 Under 143.0	N Colorado at Denver
831 Under 116.0	Rob Morris at Virginia
775 Under 156.5	Manhattan vs Florida St
721 Under 136.5	Texas Tech at Richmond
817 Under 160.5	Oral Roberts at Creighton
723 Over 132.0	S Carolina at S Florida
825 Under 130.0	Wagner at Providence
729 Over 134.5	Kansas St vs Colorado St
759 Over 130.5	Cal Poly at California
797 Under 191.0	Citadel at VA Tech
763 Under 148.5	Troy at USC
829 Under 138.0	Maryland ES at Michigan
835 Under 147.5	Prairie View at Utah
799 Under 148.5	E Tenn St at Morehead St
755 Under 129.0	Texas State at Tulsa

[magsmeplease]

GL, I'm being lazy today and coming along with you on your totals for a unit each. (Got most of them)

[CGBatch]

Wasn't as good as it could have been yesterday. Missed the early St Johns/Penn State game today as well.

17 December Results

Sides 4-2 (31-27 ytd)
Totals 7-8 (167-134 ytd)
Overall 11-10 (198-161 ytd)

18 December Plays:

551 Idaho State +15.0

at Boise State

549 Under 159.0	CS Fullerton at Neb Omaha
531 Under 167.0	W Michigan at Washington
529 Under 139.5	Northeastrn at Michigan St
537 Under 140.0	Portland vs Oregon St
525 Over 147.5	Gonzaga at Tennessee
533 Over 148.0	Penn State vs St Johns
539 Under 145.5	Mercer at Auburn

[CGBatch]

18 December Results

Sides 0-1 (31-27 ytd)
Totals 3-4 (170-138 ytd)
Overall 3-5 (201-166 ytd)

19 December Plays:

722 Miss State -16.0	vs S Mississippi
741 AR Lit Rock -2.5	at Oral Roberts

715 Over 131.0	Stanford at S Methodist
733 Under 141.5	W Illinois at Purdue
735 Under 139.5	TN State at Duke
747 Under 153.0	SIU Edward at WI-Grn Bay
751 Under 166.5	St Fran (PA) at Marquette
737 Under 140.0	Wofford at Coastal Car

[CGBatch]

Wofford +2.5 should have also been a play, I didn't check back later to add it.

19 December Results

Sides 2-1 (33-28 ytd)
Totals 3-3 (173-141 ytd)
Overall 5-4 (206-170 ytd)

20 December Plays:

538 Maryland -13.0

vs Charlotte

525 Under 153.0	Northeastrn at Oakland
545 Under 138.5	Fresno St at Oregon
543 Under 143.5	New Mexico at Arizona
573 Under 138.0	Maine at Providence
559 Under 159.5	N Arizona at IL-Chicago
575 Under 150.0	Charl South at VA Tech

[CGBatch]

Graded Maine/Providence as a loss even though I pushed because it closed at 137.

20 December Results

Sides 1-0 (34-28 ytd)
Totals 5-1 (178-142 ytd)
Overall 6-1 (212-171 ytd)

21 December Plays:

765 Under 138.5	Jksnville St at Chattanooga
724 Over 135.5	Missouri vs Illinois
757 Over 150.0	Fairfield vs Boston Col
775 Under 155.5	SIU Edward at Marquette
731 Under 136.0	Georgia St at Middle Tenn
729 Over 135.0	AR Lit Rock at Florida
749 Under 174.5	W Michigan at UCLA
777 Under 176.5	Central Mich at Montana St
761 Under 133.5	Akron vs UC Irvine

[CGBatch]

Good winning day, missed the early spread play today, sorry

21 December Results

Sides 0-0 (34-28 ytd)
Totals 7-2 (185-144 ytd)
Overall 7-2 (219-173 ytd)

22 December Plays:

611 Alab A&M +20.5	at Bowling Grn
575 Austin Peay +31.5	at Indiana

587 Over 115.5	Col Charlestn at W Carolina
567 Under 130.0	Furman at Michigan
589 Under 147.5	La Salle at Mercer
521 Over 124.5	Delaware at S Florida
513 Under 161.0	Marshall at Cincinnati
563 Under 146.0	Missouri St vs USC
535 Under 143.5	TX-Arlington at Loyola Mymt
552 Over 128.5	San Diego St vs S Mississippi
613 Under 167.5	Central Ark at Arizona St
542 Under 143.0	SE Missouri vs Chicago St
573 Over 146.0	Morehead St at Miss State
525 Over 134.5	Santa Clara at Valparaiso
517 Under 138.5	LA Monroe at VCU
569 Under 149.5	Tennessee at E Tenn St

edit: add

565 NC-Grnsboro +13.0	at Georgetown
532 Wake Forest -10.5	vs LSU

617 Over 135.0

NC-Asheville at Ohio State

[CGBatch]

22 December Results

Sides 2-2 (36-30 ytd)
Totals 7-7 (192-151 ytd)
Overall 9-9 (228-182 ytd)

23 December Plays:

743 Under 143.0	Harvard at Houston
765 Under 142.0	Florida A&M at Wisconsin
731 Under 140.5	Auburn at Connecticut

[magsmeplease]

You don't get enough credit here man, but your plays have been really impressive. Keep up the good work!

[onebadhombre]

Sweet plays CG!

[CGBatch]

Thanks Guys and Merry Christmas! I know most people are turned off by the shear number of plays, but I'd rather hit 54-56% over 1000 plays than 58% over 100 plays. That said I was a bit surprised with only four games today, but we have two plays

23 December Results

Sides 0-0 (36-30 ytd)
Totals 3-0 (195-151 ytd)
Overall 3-0 (231-182 ytd)

25 December Plays:

517 Over 125.5	S Mississippi at Hawaii
511 Under 141.0	Ste F Austin vs Utah

[magsmeplease]

Absolutely, the hit rate is what's important for sure.

Thanks and Merry Christmas

[CGBatch]

Just the one for today

25 December Results

Sides 0-0 (36-30 ytd)
Totals 1-1 (196-152 ytd)
Overall 1-1 (232-183 ytd)

27 December Plays:

519 Under 138.0

S Methodist at Memphis

[CGBatch]

Easy one last night, as conference play begins there should be noticeably less plays

27 December Results

Sides 0-0 (36-30 ytd)
Totals 1-0 (197-152 ytd)
Overall 1-0 (233-183 ytd)

28 December Plays:

745 Houston -2.5

at Connecticut

785 Under 138.0	N Dakota St at S Dakota St
777 Under 137.0	St Peters at Notre Dame
745 Over 132.0	Houston at Connecticut
751 Over 134.5	Cincinnati at Temple
757 Over 130.5	Missouri St at N Iowa
731 Under 155.0	Seton Hall at Creighton
739 Under 171.5	Marshall at Pittsburgh
723 Under 143.0	DePaul at Villanova

[CGBatch]

Missed the early game, but fortunately looks like it's going to lose

28 December Results

Sides 1-0 (37-30 ytd)
Totals 3-5 (200-157 ytd)
Overall 4-5 (237-188 ytd)

29 December Plays:

555 W Illinois +14.0

at IPFW

527 Over 147.5	Georgia at Auburn
523 Over 149.0	Florida at Arkansas
545 Under 145.5	Pepperdine at Gonzaga
551 Under 129.5	St Marys at Loyola Mymt
559 Under 145.0	Jksnville St at TN Martin
529 Under 126.5	Wm & Mary at Old Dominion
539 Under 139.0	Tennessee at Texas A&M
555 Under 146.5	W Illinois at IPFW
513 Under 148.0	Lg Beach St at E Michigan

[CGBatch]

Got royally screwed in the St Marys/LMU game last night. Under 129.5, 65-55 with a minute to play, should be good to go, nope, 14 free throws in the final minute in a game that was never closer than 10 points, smh

29 December Results

Sides 1-0 (38-30 ytd)
Totals 4-5 (204-162 ytd)
Overall 5-5 (242-193 ytd)

30 December Plays:

757 Over 146.5	Fairfield at U Penn
731 Under 139.5	Texas Tech at Iowa State
745 Under 145.0	Kansas at TX Christian
735 Over 133.5	Duquesne at Fordham
721 Under 155.0	St Bonavent at U Mass

[magsmeplease]

Got royally screwed in the St Marys/LMU game last night. Under 129.5, 65-55 with a minute to play, should be good to go, nope, 14 free throws in the final minute in a game that was never closer than 10 points, smh

29 December Results

Sides 1-0 (38-30 ytd)
Totals 4-5 (204-162 ytd)
Overall 5-5 (242-193 ytd)

30 December Plays:

757 Over 146.5	Fairfield at U Penn
731 Under 139.5	Texas Tech at Iowa State
745 Under 145.0	Kansas at TX Christian
735 Over 133.5	Duquesne at Fordham
721 Under 155.0	St Bonavent at U Mass

Yeah I was watching that game wondering wtf... LMU was fouling and pressing with 6 seconds left.

[CGBatch]

30 December Results

Sides 0-0 (38-30 ytd)
Totals 2-3 (206-165 ytd)
Overall 2-3 (244-196 ytd)

31 December Plays:

527 Houston -12.0	at S Florida
531 Col Charlestn -1.5	at Elon
535 S Methodist -9.5	at E Carolina

629 Under 146.0	VA Military at E Tenn St
627 Under 150.0	E Kentucky at SE Missouri
581 Over 135.0	App State at Texas State
541 Under 154.5	Villanova at Creighton
543 Under 137.5	Cal Poly at Princeton
575 Over 129.5	Temple at Central FL
597 Under 128.0	San Diego at St Marys
545 Under 130.5	Rice at Old Dominion
607 Under 144.5	W Illinois at IUPUI
559 Over 128.0	Connecticut at Tulsa
621 Over 150.0	Neb Omaha at N Dakota St
625 Under 160.0	Belmont at Austin Peay