40 picks and 40 nights

[mixpicks]

Also MINN and Knicks+PTS those I will also add an extra 2pts to the spread, then add the 20bucks to minn,M/L No M/L for the Knicks, Only PTS.
------------
Cleve game just went down, to 9 (even Thro like 72% on them) wow even better for DET with the pts. Now IMO Cleve-6 par with the Under 182 (2pt buy) already played DET +12 str8(1.5 buy) the only reason I did the par is to avoide paying the high juice, also look for cleve to win cover 1st Q and 1/2 too Only to blow a 17-20pts lead in the 3rd. to win by 7,8,or 9

[mixpicks]

Only 20 Bucks, It's just I don't see any real good plays tonight, do you, IF so why.
Thanks, Mate... hey, that reminds me, of the time I spent in Dawin, and New Casle Aussie, So, Much Fun, Love It There, seems like there is like 10 girls for every one bloke.?

[mixpicks]

scratch the Under Big Steam Just Went On Over line is going to go to 180 or 181 fast watch, Need to play the over, but I'm just gona find something else to put it with.

[jmathes]

like the DOG card, also think with a couple pts. you ca even middle a couple of those big spreads,
I did it last last with the Knicks Game, and almost with the Heat game, lose that Middle By the "Hook"
out of all the best middle maybe the Cleve game....................bol............. .:

Well, looks like your double digit dogs were 3-0 tonight with Detroit, Oklahoma City, and NY Knicks covering their spreads. I also cleaned house on my picks above with a 4-1 record tonight. Had the Hornets and Kings not gone crazy and scored 70 in the 1st quarter and 58 in the 2nd totaling 128 points in the half I would have gone 5-0 for the night. Oh well still made a good chunk of change. Lets get it again tomorrow

[jmathes]

RESULTS FROM 3/31

CHARLOTTE +6.5 OVER LA LAKERS WIN

DETROIT +10 OVER CLEVELAND WIN

OKLAHOMA CITY +13 OVER SAN ANTONIO WIN

NEW ORLEANS & SACRAMENTO UNDER 202 LOSS

SACRAMENTO +7.5 OVER NEW ORLEANS WIN


Wow, I murdered it last night going 4-1. I'm pretty pissed about that 70 point 1st quarter in the New Orleans & Sacramento game because that kept me from a perfect 5-0 last night. I have gotten alot of emails from people that like the bigger cards but I will be the first to admit, sticking to 1-2 games is my specialty. There is not one capper out there that can hit in the mid 60% range dropping 4-5 picks a day.

Today's pick is a no brainer after what happened to this team last night. The Hornets came into their place and hit a 3 point buzzer beater to beat them by one point in a heart breaker. This will be a huge revenge factor when the bitter Kings make that short travel to face the Warriors tonight. I can not believe the line on this game is at -8.5 for the Warrriors. Did these guys take into account all the injuries Golden State have? Check out the injury report and it will put a smile on your face before you bet this one. I realize that it is a back to back and a road game for the Kings here but come on, they are playing the Warriors for crying out loud. The Kings have actually beat them the last 2 games straight up and 4 games ATS. Tonight I also like Boston -8 over Charlotte, and Detroit +2 over New Jersey. Good luck!




TODAY'S PICK:

SACRAMENTO +8.5 OVER GOLDEN STATE


overall record 18-9-1

[mixpicks]

Yes, I'm happy I came across your card, and loved it. Usually I would just play one Dog, one with good RLM and opposite public like Det. but I'm glad I played all them and finally had some balls to play a couple M/L OKC M/L WOW. Thats the way to wager, I try telling folks that all the time, to "Take The Action" Think If you was a bookie, what would your clients call in, Of Course, Lakers, SA, Hornets, ohhh yes and Cleve Big. That's What They would (and did) my book clients did play... Let the oddmakers, work for you, let them put in hours and hours setting that line for us. Okay Enough, of that. Tonight, go lite, I really think it's gona be a "JP" night. The Only Bet I see so far, Is Toronto+10.

lastthing Re: Latenight Kings, and Cleve Game Both Middle.

[mixpicks]

You Like Kings Tonight? Interesting, WHY do you like them, seems like a toss up, However, I do like the fact that only 32% as of now, are on Kings, with 90% on them M/L I really Do Not think they win the game IMO 58% chance they do cover, but 90% chance they do not win. As for they line No Movement Yet, eitherway, If the line moves say tp -7.5 or 8, then maybe a like them a bit more. Anyway, I wouldn't say it's a bad pick plus, maybe u know something about thiss game that I don't. Let Me Know... I know bout some injuries on GSW... Take a Look at Toronto...

As for a JP night, I would say Lakers S/U and 1st Quarter... But that's not the way I like to roll, so in short let the Public get their wins tonight, and tomarrow, we get ours...

[mixpicks]

wow, I just looked back at some of your previous plays, I was also I most if not all of them even the loses like cuse ov. Oklah. the only difference is I did have Missouri, even thro If i would have picked myself I would have taken Memphis because of Calipi Coach, but my info. on that said Mizz. overwheling. Anyway, seems like we think the same, I'll have to try and visit your thread more often, and share some Info.

BOL Tonight.

[mixpicks]

Also, I know you must have hit NC ov. OK Public all over Oklahoma, Love That, Opposite of Public with the Better Team=$$$$ and The Under like 76% On The OVER and Lined Dropped 2pts. My Biggest Play was That Game more on Under. Uconn was another good play Not as Good As Both Sides of NC Game. Hope The Numbers Look Good For The Next CBB Game, Thinking NC and Mich St. so far but still a lot to look at...

[blowseq]

keep going jmathes, great job

[jmathes]

RESULTS FROM 4/01

SACRAMENTO +8.5 OVER GOLDEN STATE WIN



Don't know how many people watched the Sacramento & Golden State game last night but that had to be one of the worst NBA games I have ever seen in my life. They need to incorporate the European Soccer rule for the NBA. The last place teams in the bottom of the overall league standings get demoted down to a lower league. The only way that team can come back up is to win their division the next year. I hate to be the Debbie Downer but it looks like the Kings will be playing in the CBA for the next few years-lol. This would give much more incentive for the players to put forth a decent effort. Well enough of that, lets talk about today's card.

Today's pick I will go with the Denver Nuggets -4.5 over the Utah Jazz. The Jazz are 0-6 straight up and 1-5 ATS when playing on the road against Western Conference teams ranked higher than them. Yeah that is alot to comprehend, but the point is they are a terrible road team. The Jazz are dismal 14-28 on the road while the Nuggets boast a great home record at 29-8. I will admit the Jazz are probably the better overall team, but you have to be able to get the job done on the road. This game will have playoff intensity written all over it, since Utah is only 2 1/2 games behind the 2nd place Nuggets. Another strong game I like today is Washington +10.5 over Cleveland. I am not going to mess with this game because the Cavs are on a mission but lets watch to see what would happen.





TODAY'S PICK:

DENVER -4.5 OVER UTAH


overall record 19-9-1

[blowseq]

just one word: AMAZİNG!

[jmathes]

RESULTS FROM 4/01

DENVER -4.5 OVER UTAH WIN



Guys, sorry I am posting this so late but it has been a disastrous morning. We got close to 2 feet of snow here in Vail, Colorado and the blizzard wiped out my electricity for most of the morning...back to to business. Today, there is a huge card of NBA plays that looked very interesting. As usual I am going to play 1 game but will toss a few out there that I really liked. Orlando -3 (back to back for Cleve), Boston -4.5 (Atlanta terrible on road lately), Phoenix -12.5 (Phoen rested & Kings deflated from last 2 tough losses), and Oregon State +9.5 (are they really gonna give UTEP 10 again?). The stronger out of these plays would be on Orlando.

I am going to throw a statistic out there that I've had a good deal of success with lately. Criticize systems/trends all you want but why bet against one? When some of my bets fall into 2 of these trend categories this makes my plays that much stronger. This year if falling into 2 of my system bets, these games have had a remarkable 24-4 record. Here is my fun fact for the day: Teams 4 games over five hundred or better, not on a 8+ game winning streak, are 9-38 ATS against non divisional teams at least 4 games under five hundred if favored by 5 or more. And if in their previous game vs this same team they lost, or won by no more than 4, they are 0-12 ATS. Charlotte and New York were 2 more winners that covered ATS on Tuesday. If the San Antonio line goes to -5 or more today, you might want to consider betting Indiana +5.

Today I am going with the LA Lakers -5.5 over the Houston Rockets. The Rockets have more to play for than the Lakers, however they will come up short. I am aware that the Lakers have claimed that #1 seed and the Rockets are fighting for home court in the first round, but that is just not enough. I think the depth of the Lakers will be too much for the Rockets to handle. Los Angeles is averaging 106.0 points on 51.2 percent shooting in winning the first three meetings of the season with Houston. The Lakers have had little trouble in those games, outscoring the Rockets by an average of 13.3. This will be a back in forth game early, but the depth and high scoring of the Lakers will easily have them winning by double digits. Kobe loves to showcase his talent, so look for him to step up big on ESPN's Friday night game at the Staples Center.




TODAY'S PICK:

LA LAKERS -5.5 OVER HOUSTON


overall record 20-9-1

[jmathes]

RESULTS FROM 4/03

LA LAKERS -5.5 OVER HOUSTON WIN



Where is the love fellas? I want to give 2 people some love when it comes to yesterday's plays. The first one will be myself. Go back and read my write up from yesterday. Every single factor I mentioned came into play and was dead on. Here is a portion of that I posted from yesterday and had you played you would have hit 5-0 for the day: "Orlando -3 (back to back for Cleve), Boston -4.5 (Atlanta terrible on road lately), Phoenix -12.5 (Phoen rested & Kings deflated from last 2 tough losses), and Oregon State +9.5 (are they really gonna give UTEP 10 again?). The stronger out of these plays would be on Orlando." I would also like to give some love to a buddy who is the best bookie in town. Here is the last section of his write up yesterday: "Boston has averaged 104 points in its last seven games without KG and Atlanta had cracked 93 points in eight of nine before their last two games. That’s still eight of 11 games at 93 or more points. If both teams just do what they normally do – and that will be my final score 104-93 (but I’m not saying who will win!) – then this one will soar over this low total." The final score ended up being 104-94...Are you kidding me?

Today I am going to stick with the NBA games and steer clear of College Basketball. When it gets past the Sweet 16 I like to stay away from those games. The last few rounds of the tourney are where the linesmakers really buckle down and make it hard for us. In the NBA I am going with the under 221 (5Dimes) in the Toronto and New York game. My spreadsheet totals forecast this game to be at 207.4 which is 12+ points below the set total. If you take the higher of the 2 teams PF and PA which is 105.6 & 108.3 you still wouldn't get anywhere close to this total. That is not the correct way to simulate the totals but I am illustrating how much this total is inflated. This number doesn't take into account Toronto's ovetime game at 263 points a few days ago (25 pts in OT). It also hasn't taken into account that New York's offense is not what is was 2 months ago, which creates a big inflation as well. I usually stay away from over/unders but this is one you can not lay off. The games I like today are Villanove +8, Denver -14, and Toronto +3. The strongest game of those would be the Nuggets -14 over the Clippers






TODAY'S PICK:

TORONTO & NEW YORK UNDER 221


overall record 21-9-1

[HoulihansTX]

Congrats on the Hot Streak keep it up.

[jmathes]

I will not count this for my record but Denver -13 is a strong play tonight. I have watched just about every single Nuggets game and definitely know what they are capable of. The line is moving hard but still jump on. This will easily be a 20+ point victory for the Nuggets. Come back tomorrow because I have a very very easy winner. Good luck everyone!

[blowseq]

thank you very much for the Nuggets jmathes, wowww you're on fire man

[jmathes]

RESULTS FROM 4/04

TORONTO & NEW YORK UNDER 221 WIN



Short and sweet today fellas. Got 2 feet of fresh powder and I gotta hit the hill. I saw this yesterday while capping today's games and laughed hysterically. Are they really going to put the over/under at 220 for the New York and Toronto game? The best thing about this is that its what they call a home to home back to back. This means 2 teams play each other in back to back games each on their home court with no rest in between games. In these games the teams intensity dies down because they played them the day before-fatigue is big in this situation usually favoring the home team. If anything changed statistically it would be my simulated spreadsheet totals. My estimated totals between these 2 actually went down to 206.3. I broke down the teams averages on the year compared to yesterdays box score in these categories: field goal percentage, average field goals/attempts, free throws/attempts, 3 pts/attempts, average time of possession, etc... Well both teams may have shot atleast 5% lower than their season average, but this average doesn't compare to how they are doing over their past 10 games. I said it before and I will say it again, the lines are still inflated from the Knicks numbers earlier in the season. Even if these teams happen to shoot at their average percentage, that will only give them 8-11 more points more than yesterday's 197 total.

Other plays I like today are: San Antonio & Cleveland over 90.5 for the 1st half, Toronto -5 over New York, Golden State & Sacramento over 123 1st half, UConn -5 over Stanford 1st half (women), LA Lakers -16 over LA Clippers. My strongest play of those would be Golden State and Sacramento over 123 for the 1st half. The Lakers picks is very strong as well because the Clippers are back to back road to road after a 16 point loss against the Nuggets last night. Guys, my advice is stick to my one strong play. If you really want more action, play your other games very very small. I promise you that you will be on top in the long run.



TODAY'S PICK:

NEW YORK & TORONTO UNDER 220 (the line is moving very fast but jump on until 216 and no more)




overall record 22-9-1

[italiano22]

Anything for today?

[jmathes]

Anything for today?

Yes here is my pick. It is not the same as yesterday. The same teams but the total is a bit lower than yesterday.

TODAY'S PICK:

NEW YORK & TORONTO UNDER 220 (the line is moving very fast but jump on until 216 and no more)

[HoulihansTX]

Yes here is my pick. It is not the same as yesterday. The same teams but the total is a bit lower than yesterday.

TODAY'S PICK:

NEW YORK & TORONTO UNDER 220 (the line is moving very fast but jump on until 216 and no more)

[GGPLAYER]

RESULTS FROM 4/04

TORONTO & NEW YORK UNDER 221 WIN



Short and sweet today fellas. Got 2 feet of fresh powder and I gotta hit the hill. I saw this yesterday while capping today's games and laughed hysterically. Are they really going to put the over/under at 220 for the New York and Toronto game? The best thing about this is that its what they call a home to home back to back. This means 2 teams play each other in back to back games each on their home court with no rest in between games. In these games the teams intensity dies down because they played them the day before-fatigue is big in this situation usually favoring the home team. If anything changed statistically it would be my simulated spreadsheet totals. My estimated totals between these 2 actually went down to 206.3. I broke down the teams averages on the year compared to yesterdays box score in these categories: field goal percentage, average field goals/attempts, free throws/attempts, 3 pts/attempts, average time of possession, etc... Well both teams may have shot atleast 5% lower than their season average, but this average doesn't compare to how they are doing over their past 10 games. I said it before and I will say it again, the lines are still inflated from the Knicks numbers earlier in the season. Even if these teams happen to shoot at their average percentage, that will only give them 8-11 more points more than yesterday's 197 total.

Other plays I like today are: San Antonio & Cleveland over 90.5 for the 1st half, Toronto -5 over New York, Golden State & Sacramento over 123 1st half, UConn -5 over Stanford 1st half (women), LA Lakers -16 over LA Clippers. My strongest play of those would be Golden State and Sacramento over 123 for the 1st half. The Lakers picks is very strong as well because the Clippers are back to back road to road after a 16 point loss against the Nuggets last night. Guys, my advice is stick to my one strong play. If you really want more action, play your other games very very small. I promise you that you will be on top in the long run.



TODAY'S PICK:

NEW YORK & TORONTO UNDER 220 (the line is moving very fast but jump on until 216 and no more)




overall record 22-9-1

Ouch...took a pretty good hit yesterday. I missed your Clev/SA pick but then jumped on the Under for NY/Tor. But also bet Tor-5, GS/Sac over 1st half and LA -16. How are you with picking baseball games?

[Vreston]

Hi,
I just read your thread and I think you're doing a great job! Keep up the great work!


Too bad I hadn't read it earlier.
No NBA today. Do you have an opinion on the NCAA final?
Right now bwin has North Carolina at -7.5. I was kind of scared to bet them at -7 against Villanova but I did and they came through.

What do you think?

[jmathes]

RESULTS FROM 4/05

NEW YORK & TORONTO UNDER 220 WIN




This is it fellas...This is where legends are made! I could have been a bitch and turned away from this game but I am going to man up and accept the challenge. I am 89-48 (64.9%) for my NCAA basketball games this year and really looking for that 65% mark. Long story short but if I hit that 65% I will get a pretty large incentives bonus from some of my peeps. I was so close to taking my 5 game win streak and shifting to baseball but feel that would be a cop out. Could have been a sucker and taken Sebathia and the Yanks at -1 1/2 runs and cashed in for the day-NO THANKS.

I have read every other expert onion out there and changed my mind 20 different times. I have heard about a million valid arguments on why each team will cover and still no decision. All I have to say is good luck with that one because I will pass on the spread. Today I am going to pick the under 154.5 in this game. If you ask me for a very convincing write up on why I see this game going under, I couldn't give you one. I'll be honest and say this is strictly a gut feeling. I see the game starting off at a very fast tempo, then settling down quite a bit. UNC will not hit 11 3-pointers (season avg 7) like they did against Villanova. Yeah UNC is 2nd in the league at 85.7 points scored, but Michigan State can play a little defense. They held UConn to 1-12 at mid range, 2-6 3-pt range, and 8-32 on all jump shots. I do realize that UConn had an off night but UNC's numbers will not be astronomical either. The one aspect of the game I am worried about is UNC getting to the free throw line. We all know the clock stops on free throws and Michigan State sent UConn to the charity stripe 33 times last game, which UConn converted to 21 points (63%). My point I am trying to make is that if UNC goes to the free throw line 33 times and hits 11 3-pointers then the game will go over. However I do not see that happening so lets put the money in the bank! My predicted total will be 147 points. A small prop bet I like is over 11.5 total 3-pointers made (-115) at 5Dimes. I then realized that this would be contradicting myself because I am hoping for less points. GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!


Here are some links I attached to confuse you even more:

covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=169551&t=0

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=535372

TODAY'S PICK:


NORTH CAROLINA & MICHIGAN STATE UNDER 154.5




overall record 23-9-1

[gyftosgreek]

i like the under also .jmathes keep up the good work.bol

[jmathes]

RESULTS FROM 4/06

NORTH CAROLINA & MICHIGAN STATE UNDER 154.5 LOSS



No explanation needed for today's pick. It's UConn women's baskeball and there is nobody that can stop them. This is easy money here and if you pass on this you are a fool.





TODAY'S PICK:



UCONN -16 OVER LOUISVILLE (WOMENS)



overall record 23-10-1

[Vreston]

Right now bwin has them at -17. What do you think?

I don't follow women's basketball at all.
I'll just tail you for the first time on this one.

Whatever happens thanks for the information.

[HoulihansTX]

Right now bwin has them at -17. What do you think?

I don't follow women's basketball at all.
I'll just tail you for the first time on this one.

Whatever happens thanks for the information.

Check out my thread on this subject. You will become even more confident on your pick. Oh yea great pick JMathes. This will is a sure fire streak starter.

[blowseq]

[jmathes]

RESULTS FROM 4/07

UCONN -16 OVER LOUISVILLE (WOMENS) WIN


Guys, I do not have time to do a write up today but just know this is a very strong pick. Good luck and thank me tomorrow!


TODAY'S PICK:


NEW ORLEANS -3 OVER PHOENIX



overall record 24-10-1

[jmathes]

RESULTS FROM 4/08

NEW ORLEANS -3 OVER PHOENIX LOSS



TODAY'S PICK:


DENVER NUGGETS +8.5 OVER LA LAKERS



overall record 24-11-1

[jmathes]

RESULTS FROM 4/09

DENVER NUGGETS +8.5 OVER LA LAKERS LOSS



TODAY'S PICK:


DALLAS MAVERICKS -6.5 OVER NEW ORLEANS HORNETS



overall record 24-12-1

[jmathes]

RESULTS FROM 4/10

DALLAS MAVERICKS -6.5 OVER NEW ORLEANS HORNETS WIN



TODAY'S PICK:


ORLANDO -6 OVER NEW JERSEY



overall record 25-12-1

[jmathes]

RESULTS FROM 4/11

ORLANDO -6 OVER NEW JERSEY LOSS



TODAY'S PICK:


CLEVELAND -6.5 OVER BOSTON



overall record 25-13-1

[Vreston]

Correct JMathes!

I played the same and won.
Did terrible in baseball though. Hope today will be better.