40 picks and 40 nights

[jmathes]

Guys, I have the hottest thread going on the site. It will give you a very detailed reason why my picks will win. I have this same thread over in the players talk section but not getting any love. I guarantee you 62+% over the next month.

RESULTS FROM 3/23


STANFORD +1 OVER WICHITA STATE WIN


A very small card once again today but this one will be an easy winner. First I will go over a few games that I saw pretty interesting. The 3 games I like today not on my main card are: Detroit +5.5 over Chicago, Utah -5 over Houston, and San Antonio -9 over Golden State. I usually don't like taking the Spurs on anything because they are a veteran team and also don't score alot of points. However I noticed that the last time they played the Warriors at home it was a beating of 123-88. On top of that the last 4 games against the Warriors at home they have won by an average margin of 30.5 points (35,24,23,40). I had a hard time not making this my pick for the day but feel like I came up with the right decision.

For my main pick I am once again going with the betting public on this game. I really like Penn State +11 over Florida. Similar to last night's game I am taking a step back and looking at the big picture. Its a Big 10 vs SEC battle and this is my selling point. The SEC has to be one of the worst conferences in college basketball. Why would you give Florida -11 points over Penn State? The Sagarin Predictor gives Florida an edge of about 5 points but the strength of schedule has Penn State at 69 and Florida at 104. This means one thing-tougher conference!! This game is at Madison Square Garden so if anyone has the advantage it would be Penn State in that aspect.

I do want to give Billy Donovan alot of props when it comes to this Gator team. They are the team to watch over the next couple of years. Their roster consists of: 6 freshman, 5 sophmores, 1 junior, and only 1 graduating senior. It gets better though because he has committed 3 of the top 15 recruits in the nation. Kenny Boynton and Erik Murphy are probably the best shooting guard and power forwards in the country. I guarantee Billy Donovan and the Florida Gators will win another National Championship in either the 2010 or 2011 basketball season. Going back to tonight's team, I strongly feel they lack the overall maturity and talent to beat a Penn State team by 11 at the Garden.




TODAY'S PICK:

PENN STATE +11 OVER FLORIDA




overall record 10-5-1

[jraines]

ill tail you here

[HoulihansTX]

JMathes have you checked Penn St. INJ report. Both top scores are inj, with one defintely not playing. that curbed my pick the other way. Love the write up

[jmathes]

JMathes have you checked Penn St. INJ report. Both top scores are inj, with one defintely not playing. that curbed my pick the other way. Love the write up

I will be honest with you Houlihan. I saw that injury report midway through writing this article but I still feel its a strong play. I just think giving Florida 11 points is too many if comparing the strength of these conferences. If your not comfortable with this pick the San Antonio game is a very strong pick as well.

See all my past write ups in the thread under players talk also called "40 picks and 40 Nights."

[micjhenr]

Guys, I have the hottest thread going on the site. It will give you a very detailed reason why my picks will win. I have this same thread over in the players talk section but not getting any love. I guarantee you 62+% over the next month.

RESULTS FROM 3/23


STANFORD +1 OVER WICHITA STATE WIN


A very small card once again today but this one will be an easy winner. First I will go over a few games that I saw pretty interesting. The 3 games I like today not on my main card are: Detroit +5.5 over Chicago, Utah -5 over Houston, and San Antonio -9 over Golden State. I usually don't like taking the Spurs on anything because they are a veteran team and also don't score alot of points. However I noticed that the last time they played the Warriors at home it was a beating of 123-88. On top of that the last 4 games against the Warriors at home they have won by an average margin of 30.5 points (35,24,23,40). I had a hard time not making this my pick for the day but feel like I came up with the right decision.

For my main pick I am once again going with the betting public on this game. I really like Penn State +11 over Florida. Similar to last night's game I am taking a step back and looking at the big picture. Its a Big 10 vs SEC battle and this is my selling point. The SEC has to be one of the worst conferences in college basketball. Why would you give Florida -11 points over Penn State? The Sagarin Predictor gives Florida an edge of about 5 points but the strength of schedule has Penn State at 69 and Florida at 104. This means one thing-tougher conference!! This game is at Madison Square Garden so if anyone has the advantage it would be Penn State in that aspect.

I do want to give Billy Donovan alot of props when it comes to this Gator team. They are the team to watch over the next couple of years. Their roster consists of: 6 freshman, 5 sophmores, 1 junior, and only 1 graduating senior. It gets better though because he has committed 3 of the top 15 recruits in the nation. Kenny Boynton and Erik Murphy are probably the best shooting guard and power forwards in the country. I guarantee Billy Donovan and the Florida Gators will win another National Championship in either the 2010 or 2011 basketball season. Going back to tonight's team, I strongly feel they lack the overall maturity and talent to beat a Penn State team by 11 at the Garden.




TODAY'S PICK:

PENN STATE +11 OVER FLORIDA




overall record 10-5-1

I am pretty sure the games in Flordia!!!

[JColli32]

Battle is playing and Cornley blows his shoulder out every game he definately won't miss this game against the gators...he is the heart and soul of psu basketball.....If CORNLEY IS OUT...I SUGGEST NOT PLAYING THIS GAME ....Wait untill gametime to bet on this game to get a final decision on Corney

[Wilforth]

The outcome of this game isn't dependent on the matchup. The fact is that Penn St will cover no matter who plays.

[JColli32]

i got to penn state watched every game....the wont cover if cornley and battle are out.....cornley is the catalyst to PSUs rebound game and battle for the scoring

[jmathes]

I am pretty sure the games in Flordia!!!

The game is in Florida. Sorry!!!

[JColli32]

Here is some info on cornley and battle directly from penn states daily newspaper

http://www.collegian.psu.edu/archive/2009/03/24/cornley_battle_probable.aspx

[JColli32]

With Cornley in the lineup tonight, Penn State gets its second-leading scorer and leading rebounder back and its emotional leader on the floor again. Cornley will try to extend his college career to Madison Square Garden and the NIT semifinals.
"He's a tough kid, he's ready to play I'm sure," Battle said. "There's a chance this could be his last game, and I'm sure he doesn't want to miss it."

Direct quote from article i posted

[JColli32]

The game is in Florida not MSG.....Semis and finals are in MSG

[jmathes]

With Cornley in the lineup tonight, Penn State gets its second-leading scorer and leading rebounder back and its emotional leader on the floor again. Cornley will try to extend his college career to Madison Square Garden and the NIT semifinals.
"He's a tough kid, he's ready to play I'm sure," Battle said. "There's a chance this could be his last game, and I'm sure he doesn't want to miss it."

Direct quote from article i posted

Thanks for the posting JColli. However, I did take this into consideration earlier when posting this play. I will say that even with the injuries, I think Penn State will cover the spread. I looked over every game today and found the other ones very tough to cap. I was leaning towards the Spurs but they also have 2 big injuries as well: Ducan & Ginobili. Capping games at 100% just isn't possible, but I guarantee you I'll try to get as close to it as I can.

[micjhenr]

Please do your homework before you post on my thread. The game is at Madison Square Garden but maybe you could please verify this for everyone:

http://www.nit.org/sports/m-nit/spec-rel/121308aab.html

I would do my homework before i talk crap......
You are a giant idiot!!!!!!!!! Its in Flordia moron next round is in Madison Square Gardens.......

You might want to figure out where the games played before you make bets might help in the long run..........

.NIT
Florida vs. Penn State
When/where: 9 tonight; O'Connell Center, Gainesville
Records: UF 25-10; Penn State 24-11
TV/radio: ESPN; 620-AM
Tickets: Call the UF ticket office at (352) 375-4683, ext. 6800, or go to gatorzone.com.

[JColli32]

they both will be playing...

[jmathes]

I would do my homework before i talk crap......
You are a giant idiot!!!!!!!!! Its in Flordia moron next round is in Madison Square Gardens.......

You might want to figure out where the games played before you make bets might help in the long run..........

.NIT
Florida vs. Penn State
When/where: 9 tonight; O'Connell Center, Gainesville
Records: UF 25-10; Penn State 24-11
TV/radio: ESPN; 620-AM
Tickets: Call the UF ticket office at (352) 375-4683, ext. 6800, or go to gatorzone.com.

You were right buddy-My bad! I will edit the posting above. I apologize. Thanks for the insight.

[Mac4Lyfe]

I'm on Florida fairly big... Home court is a big advantage for the Gators. Look for Tyus to have a banner day.

[nysmoneyman]

fla -6 first half 4 me

[WOODCHIP]

Good job bro on Penn st. I capped them also covering easily..Feel sorry for you big line suckers..

[jmathes]

RESULTS FROM 3/24


PENN STATE +11 OVER FLORIDA WIN


I am going to start out today and publicly apologize to micjhenr. He was right and I was wrong-I made a mistake. Now moving forward for today I want to warn you about playing any of those NIT, CBI, And CIT games. All of those lines are pretty damn tight so save your money for a rainy day/Thursday NCAA games. Make sure you take into consideration the various factors of despiration, implications, an motivation some of the teams have. By saying that, I am referring to situations like Gillespie maybe losing his job or St. Mary's pissed off not to be in the tournament, rivalry, revenge, etc... I think where 99% of us go wrong is being able to have the discipline to bet on games where we truly know the matchups involved. All I am saying is do your homework and good luck.

I spent about an hour or so last night analyzing all the games before this one screamed out "Take Atlanta over San Antonio." So far they haven't posted the line for this game but I am guessing that it will be -3 to 5 points. Normally it would be alot less but Vegas will take into consideration Ginobili's injury and Duncan resting due to his sore vagina. Its not 100% if Duncan will sit out on this back to back game but either way I like the Hawks. Lets jump all over this game because the Spurs are a great team and all, but age is catching up to them as the season progresses. The best part of the matchup is how Atlanta is playing at home over the past month. The Hawks have won their last 10 games ATS (9-1 SU) at home. This is no fluke because most of these games have been against good opponents like: Clevelend, Utah, Miami, New Orleans, Portland, etc.. The Spurs are struggling lately at 0-4 ATS and will probably get worse until Duncan pulls his tampon out.

I would like to conclude this by asking a favor of all you haters. Please don't message me or hate on my thread criticizing my plays. I can't guarantee that I will be right 100% of the time, but I guarantee that I will give it my best. Remember the Golden Rule: "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you." Good luck and please remember, I love all you guys!




TODAY'S PICK:

ATLANTA -??????? OVER SAN ANTONIO (whether Duncan is playing or not, take the Hawks. I will update the spread later)




overall record 11-5-1

[HoulihansTX]

RESULTS FROM 3/24


PENN STATE +11 OVER FLORIDA WIN


I am going to start out today and publicly apologize to micjhenr. He was right and I was wrong-I made a mistake. Now moving forward for today I want to warn you about playing any of those NIT, CBI, And CIT games. All of those lines are pretty damn tight so save your money for a rainy day/Thursday NCAA games. Make sure you take into consideration the various factors of despiration, implications, an motivation some of the teams have. By saying that, I am referring to situations like Gillespie maybe losing his job or St. Mary's pissed off not to be in the tournament, rivalry, revenge, etc... I think where 99% of us go wrong is being able to have the discipline to bet on games where we truly know the matchups involved. All I am saying is do your homework and good luck

overall record 11-5-1

Completely correct. I just like the action, not alot of money just alot of interest. But Old Dominion is playing a team from its conference its 1-1 against, but got the win on the road. One game that can be broken down because of matchup.

[jmathes]

TODAY'S PICK:

ATLANTA -??????? OVER SAN ANTONIO (whether Duncan is playing or not, take the Hawks. I will update the spread later)

The line is up:

ATLANTA -6.5 OVER SAN ANTONIO




overall record 11-5-1

[Reggie Dunlop]

Atlanta playing like shit.

[jmathes]

RESULTS FROM 3/25


ATLANTA -6.5 OVER SAN ANTONIO LOSS



Tough loss last night as Tony Parker took over the game scoring 42 points. Its all good because I have been eying today's card since the lines came up earlier in the week. Today I am going to drop 2 games on my board but will only give a write-up of one. Memphis -4 over Missouri is something I locked in on Monday but will not go into detail. They are the hottest team in the country and can not be stopped. Memphis has the experience and too much athleticism for Missouri too keep up.

I think that taking the Big East side on this round will be to your best advantage. Their statistics right now are just overwhelming compared to the other conferences. The top 6 teams from this conference are 11-1 in the tourney so far and all three of their #1 seeds have a very good chance of making it to the final four. I'm pretty confident that if you blindly bet on each Big East team covering ATS this round you would be 4-1 or 3-2 at the worst. Don't hold me up on it, although there is that possibility it could happen. For Gods sake look at Syracuse, who was ranked 6th in their conference, won the Big East title and WILL defeat Oklahoma tomorrow. Another case in point would be Notre Dame. They were at the bottom of the Big East Conference but yet they have a legitimate chance to win the NIT Championship (how many had Kentucky last night?). Yeah I know its the NIT but still, that is just another representation of the talent the Big East brings to the table. Coach K is going to regret those comments tonight when Villanova shows Duke which conference is the superior. I know all you are thinking I'm riding the nuts of the Big East...Ill be the first to admit that I am.

I like UConn due to their recent succes winning their 1st and 2nd round games by an average margin of 41 points. Meanwhile, Purdue barely squeaked by their 1st and 2nd round opponents winning by an average of 2.5 points. The inside presence of Thabeet and Adrian will be too much for Purdue's Johnson and Hummel. Connecticut leads the league in rebounds at 40.5. They also rank 3rd in the league in field goal percentage against at 37.4%. Anytime you have a rebound differential as big as this one it only leads to one thing-second chance opportunities. The first part of this game will start off pretty slow with alot of half court offense. After Purdue gets worn down inside they will rely on their outside game to keep them in this one. Purdue's perimeter game is probably the only real advantage they have over the Huskies. Look for UConn to win this one by 10+ points and the total going over the 134. See the two links I attached if you need anymore convincing:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/colle...necticut_N.htm

http://www.stamfordadvocate.com/sports/ci_11998239



Today my betting units will look like this: 1 unit on UConn, if they cover in early game then 2/3 unit on Memphis, if they don't cover then 1.25 units on Memphis, and a very small 3 team teaser with Memphis, UConn, and Villanova. I do this because when I have two very strong plays I rarely lose them both in one day. Talk shit about it now, but praise me tomorrow. I guarantee you I'll be up money tomorrow!


TODAY'S PICKS:

UCONN -6.5 OVER PURDUE

MEMPHIS -4 OVER MISSOURI




overall record 11-6-1

[jmathes]

RESULTS FROM 3/26

UCONN -6.5 OVER PURDUE WIN

MEMPHIS -4 OVER MISSOURI LOSS



My main game today is going to be Syracuse +1 over Oklahoma. This game today is going to be an all out war of attrition. There is no doubt what these two teams are capable of but I just think that Syracuse has much more depth than Oklahoma. Blake Griffin is a hell of a player, but overall Syracuse is just going to eat their lunch. I said it before and Ill say it again, after the 6 overtime win against UConn in the Big East tourney, the Orangemen feel that have something to prove. There is no doubt Blake Griffin is the best player in the country, however a one man show will not get the job done against Syracuse. Cuse has won 9 of their last 10 games both ATS and SU and will win this one tonight.

A few other games I like tonight are Arizona +9.5 over Louisville, Orlando -11 over Milwaukee, and San Antonio -10.5 over the Clippers. I can't bet against Louisville though because you never know how this team is going to show up. I think the spread on this one is a little too big which favors Arizona greatly. I usually steer clear of double digit spreads in the NBA but I like how both teams have played recently. On top of that I really like their past games against these oppenents in particular. Its tough not to play all the games you like but I have found in the past that playing one game a day will keep my percentage much higher rather than picking 2-3 games. So with that being said lets stick to 1 big play, unless I see something I really like. If you are itching for more plays I would take Orlando -11 over Milwaukee as I see that my 2nd stongest play.




TODAY'S PICK:


SYRACUSE + 1 OVER OKLAHOMA






overall record 12-7-1

[HoulihansTX]

Whats the play today JMathes. I went 1-3 yesterday, so I'm hesitant to even listen to myself, need outside help. HAHA

[jmathes]

RESULTS FROM 3/27



SYRACUSE + 1 OVER OKLAHOMA LOSS


Don't have time to do a write up this morning but I really like UConn



TODAY'S PICK:


UCONN -5.5 OVER MISSOURI





overall record 12-8-1

[HoulihansTX]

Cuse didnt show up, then Flynn got hurt. Fcuked up game. Taking Mizzou ML and Pitts -2.5...Parlay also b/c im just soo confident. haha

[jmathes]

RESULTS FROM 3/28

UCONN -5.5 OVER MISSOURI WIN



Today I saw a few games that really stood out on the card. I really like Louisville -6.5, and Sacramento +6. After watching the intensity of Louisville in their last game against Arizona, that just solidified why I picked them to win it all. The way they started that game was similar to how Chuck Liddell comes out of the gates in his UFC fights-A BAT OUTTA HELL!! When you have that much intensity and can keep it up for an entire game, nobody can match that. I liked Sacramento +6 over Phoenix. 92% of the betting public is on Sacramento as of right now, but I have a theory on why the Kings will win tonight. Back to back, fatigue, and another huge factor is involved in this game. We will see how that pans out tonight.

My pick for today is with the Boston Celtics -10 over Oklahoma City Thunder. This is a very gutsy call because OKC has been the spread killers this year in the NBA. However, the Celtics have won 4 of their last 5 ATS and the Thunder are the flipside of this at 1-4. I believe as the season goes on it is taking a toll on Kevin Durant, which we all know is the one man show. Since he has already proven himself and there is nothing else to really play for, look for the Thunder to continue their downward spiral. I know the Celtics have quite a bit of injuries but I think they are being undervalued on this line. Even if Rondo is not a go today, Marbury will step in and do just fine.



TODAY'S PICK:


BOSTON -10 OVER OKLAHOMA CITY



overall record 13-8-1

[jmathes]

RESULTS FROM 3/29

BOSTON -10 OVER OKLAHOMA CITY WIN



Before I go into my spill about who the hell I'm gonna play today I want to talk about a particular trend I noticed last night in the NBA. Its is the reverse of the JM system. If you read yesterday's write-up I mentioned that the Kings would cover ATS and not only did they cover, they beat them outright. Those of you who don't know about the JM system do your homework and come back to this thread. I had an idea a few months ago in regards to that system. Why not observe the opposite of that trend and see how teams do on their home court? Now this has not been as lucky as the JM plays, but it usually will give 10 wins for every loss. Here is what I do: take a team playing at home 3 consecutive games in a row, filter against top 3 teams in the league but will play any lower teams, calculate the sagarin predictions on the 3 upcoming games to make sure no spreads will be double digit. With those being the only filters I have I consider this when capping some of my smaller plays. I think there is more motivation for a home team to show up after a loss rather than a road team. A man's pride is something you really don't want to mess with, especially when it comes to losing 3 times in a row at home. So I noticed yesterday, Sacramento was playing their 3rd game in a row coming off losses to Memphis and Philly at home. This play was even stronger due to the fact that Phoenix is a veteran team coming off a back to back game. Take what you want out of the trend, just know I am simply sharing this to help your odds in the future.

My pick for today is with New Jersey -3 over Milwaukee. The Nets have had the Bucks' balls in their hands in recent matchups. Jersey completely owns them with a 9-1 ATS record over the past 3 seasons. The Nets are ranked at the top of the NBA shooting the three so look for this to be a nice separation point for them. Milwaukee has the 3rd worst field goal percentage at 44.3%. These teams typically play a relatively tight game against each other. However, the home court advantage will give New Jersey that edge in order to cover the spread and possibly win by a much bigger margin. I also like the under 194 in the Orlando and Miami game tonight. Good luck!


TODAY'S PICK:

NEW JERSEY -3 OVER MILWAUKEE



overall record 14-8-1

[HoulihansTX]

Keep the plays rolling in JMat. Gl

[jmathes]

RESULTS FROM 3/30

NEW JERSEY -3 OVER MILWAUKEE LOSS



Today I am going to switch things up and go with 5 games on my card. I wanted to see how I would do going with more action. We are going to see how this goes and if I am not atleast 3-2 for the night we will go back to one or two games at the most. My theme today is going for all the underdogs because I feel the favorites are just a little overvalued in these matchups.

Charlotte +6.5 over the LA Lakers. I like this game because I feel that Charlotte has much more to play for than the Lakers. They are 2 games out of the final 8th spot in the Eastern Conference while the Lakers have already clinched the #1 seed. The Bobcats have also played very well against the Lakers in the last few meetings. The last time they played each other was a 117-110 double overtime win in Las Angeles for the Bobcats. Like I said before, Charlotte is fighting for that last playoff spot while the Lakers look to ease it up going down the stretch.


TODAY'S PICK:

CHARLOTTE +6.5 OVER LA LAKERS

DETROIT +10 OVER CLEVELAND

OKLAHOMA CITY +13 OVER SAN ANTONIO

NEW ORLEANS & SACRAMENTO UNDER 202

SACRAMENTO +7.5 OVER NEW ORLEANS

[mixpicks]

like the DOG card, also think with a couple pts. you ca even middle a couple of those big spreads,
I did it last last with the Knicks Game, and almost with the Heat game, lose that Middle By the "Hook"
out of all the best middle maybe the Cleve game....................bol............. .:

[mixpicks]

Going to try an expirment,
gona put 20Bucks on all the double Digit dogs,
20 Bucks On The MONEY LINE. all I need is for one to Win

[Hells Kitchen]

Going to try an expirment,
gona put 20Bucks on all the double Digit dogs,
20 Bucks On The MONEY LINE. all I need is for one to Win

Good luck mate!!
Takes balls to make cake.
Would luv to see u hit a couple of those DD moneyline dogs