What if he likes under? If so than waiting makes more sense
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Public is all over that total. It looks "easy"Comment -
if only betting were that easy.. taking the opposite of the public doesnt always mean youre going to win hahaOriginally posted by RenegadesComment -
It's now up to 134.5 on my site.Comment -
sameOriginally posted by AlCar G.Comment -
Tonight I like
Yale & Columbia UNDER 128
Louisiana Tech & Florida State OVER 150
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That Michigan total is an interesting one. Over the opening number looks solid. Obviously money has moved this line to the point where the over has lost a fair amount of value. Public percentages indicate that majority of betters are on the over which would make me nervous in a high profile game like the sweet sixteen...my capping style is generally to not hit opening numbers. I wait till game day, do my homework, look at line history etc....so you won't get an opinion from me tonight on what I think the right play is in this one
Similar situation tonight though...I missed the opening number tonight in ltech&fsu gm...opened at 147.5 and majority of betters are taking the over and moved the line up 3 full points! Lost a lot of value here...I still really like it though as my # for the game is 156-162 range...we'll see...I'm sure one of the teams will shoot like 2/25 from 3pt range for me lolComment -
Good luck tonight GComment -
Yale/Columbia shoot 21/39 combined from 3pt land. I can guarantee you no one will come close the rest of the season to those figures
Lets get the over in Florida and get a split on the nightComment -
LA TECH can't buy a bucket down the stretch. We need some fouls and free throws to help us outComment -
bad night for me.. bad for lucky.. bad for reaper.. i feel like everyone is getting crushed tonight
EDIT: oops fsu over still has a chance. Ill take the split pleaseComment -
We need overtime!Originally posted by iloseagainComment -
Cooked. Rough rough nightComment -
just make a couple free throws here one time!Comment -
it is very live...Originally posted by TakingVegasMoneyComment -
BANG! Split the evening...Now lets get down to the real deal... Good luck tmoro G.Comment -
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Boy did I speak to soon. 10 points In a minute where tech was down 5 with FSU ball. Thought we were done. I actually turned it off because I had to run. My apologies for ever doubting!!!Comment -
man just when you think your in the they go of for 82 pts in second half to blow the cover/ and then you have little chance for a cover and they go off for like 20 pts in the last 1;30 to give you a cover . Go figure, I will Take the split , we will get em tomorrow.Comment -
what u drinkin tonight?Originally posted by HeandogComment -
Thanks for this post Lucky. I live for these posts. This is where I learn. And you touched on what is my biggest struggle with this BB shit. When you say, "my # for the game are 156-162 range", right there, that's what the f**k I can't figure out. I see cappers all the time post that they have the game capped at XXX. Is that just a matter of looking at average PPG scored and avg PPG allowed on both teams? I can't imagine it's that smple. I also can't imagine that you analyze how every player matches up against their "mirror" for the game and how each team's bench matches up against one another, etc. If you have time I would love some guidance here.Originally posted by Lucky1gThat Michigan total is an interesting one. Over the opening number looks solid. Obviously money has moved this line to the point where the over has lost a fair amount of value. Public percentages indicate that majority of betters are on the over which would make me nervous in a high profile game like the sweet sixteen...my capping style is generally to not hit opening numbers. I wait till game day, do my homework, look at line history etc....so you won't get an opinion from me tonight on what I think the right play is in this one
Similar situation tonight though...I missed the opening number tonight in ltech&fsu gm...opened at 147.5 and majority of betters are taking the over and moved the line up 3 full points! Lost a lot of value here...I still really like it though as my # for the game is 156-162 range...we'll see...I'm sure one of the teams will shoot like 2/25 from 3pt range for me lol
As always, thank you for sharing your hard work my friend!!!!Comment -
columbia 59 pts first half looking good for the under and then go off for 82 pts second half , loss GET IT and then Fla St game not looking to good for the cover and then go off the last minuite for like 20 pts and we get the win , sorry if you did not understand , no drinking here drinking and gambling don't mix to well.Originally posted by iloseagainComment -
***UPDATED TOURNEY RECORD: 22-18- 55% (dime players are +$2,200)
All sides: 11-6-65%
All totals: 11-12-48%
top rated: 0-1Comment -
Back later. Looking forward to tonight's games
AlCar- you'd be surprised at what I have in place to pick games. If we sat down for an hour together and I explained my methods and thought process you might begin to understand. A lot of these totals plays are derived from statistical patterns for teams, turnovers,tempo as far as shots per game, %'s at home versus on the road and overall efficiency....lots of variables to consider. It's a real challenge to beat the spread throughout the course of a 300+play season. I'm happy to win 55%range consistently...what sucks is the losing streaks, but you have to accept them for what they are. Hot streaks come and they go. Consistency is the answer to generating profit. Hope this helps. Back laterComment -
You are very generous to share your thought processes with us Lucky as you have been all season to share your capping abilities.Originally posted by Lucky1gComment -
Thanks Lucky; this does help a lot. So will you be running classes during the off season? I want to get my hotel booked....Haha!!! Just kidding my friend, but if I ever get a client in your part of New York I definitely will look you up, because the least I can do is hook you up with surf & turf and a few pints (who am I kidding; several pints)!!!!Originally posted by Lucky1g
Good luck to us all tonight!!!Comment -
Amen Dog; It is actually proven that nevermind being drunk, you should never place wegers when your angry/depressed; nor should you place wagers when you're in an overly good mood. The best example is when someone goes on a tear, the day after they sweep their flat bets and win a 6 teamer they get cocky and give it all back the following day!!!Originally posted by HeandogComment -
i was talking about the way you were typing. Your lack of spelling and grammar and use of a semicolon for time made it seem like u were drunk. It was more of a joke than anythingOriginally posted by HeandogComment -
no problem Dude I am not the greatest at this typing crap or spelling either so don't worry about it . lets get some winners tonight that all I really care about .Peace BroOriginally posted by iloseagainComment -
Dayton+3.5
Dayton & Stanford UNDER 133
Florida-4
Florida & UCLA UNDER 138.5
Bol tonightComment -
Good luck tonight G let's get theseComment -
Bol g!!!Comment -
I definitely think Stanford wins ML but the points should suffice. Love the gators tonight!!! BEST OF LUCK EVERYONEComment -
figures dayton stanford both open up unable to miss haha.. DEFENSE! DEFENSE! DEFENSE!Comment -
I'm watching this Stanford game and I'm thinking more and more that my handicapping with totals doesn't work as well in tourney play. Works much better during conference play. I guess this is why handicapping style evolves through the years. I may have to scale back on totals during tourney action next time around. I hit over 60% all during conference play!...these guys are draining everything so far tonight. On pace to go way over. Hope they hit a wall in the second half....damnComment
