Regul8er's '14 NCAAB Conference Tourny Thread

**Regul8er** · 03-08-14, 11:56 PM

Originally posted by Regul8er

I'm thinking this is going to be a big night for me! Really hoping to hit at least 14 of 23 today!

Alright, this can come true......if Pepperdine can cover tonight. Cmon Waves, complete a solid day for me on a very heavy card!

**Regul8er** · 03-09-14, 08:35 AM

At least we turned a profit on such a crazy and hectic day. I made a few good reads and a few brutal ones. With the lines not yet being released, I'll try my best to get my Big South pick up from my phone, as it starts at noon. I'll get everything else up probably around 1pm or 1:3opm. Thanks

(Mon, Mar 3rd) 2-0, +2.00 units
(Tues, Mar 4th) 6-1, +4.95 units
(Wed, Mar 5th) 5-9, -5.39 units
(Thurs, Mar 6th) 6-4-1, +0.43 units
(Fri, Mar 7th) 8-5, +3.13 units
(Sat, Mar 8th) 13-10, +1.85 units
__________________________
(Overall) 40-29-1 (58.0%), +6.97 units

**inZane** · 03-09-14, 08:45 AM

Originally posted by Regul8er

At least we turned a profit on such a crazy and hectic day. I made a few good reads and a few brutal ones. Not sure how I'm going to get my picks up this afternoon as the lines haven't been released and I'll be leaving for church in about 30 minutes. I'll try and post from phone, but it may not happen.........see what I can do.

(Mon, Mar 3rd) 2-0, +2.00 units
(Tues, Mar 4th) 6-1, +4.95 units
(Wed, Mar 5th) 5-9, -5.39 units
(Thurs, Mar 6th) 6-4-1, +0.43 units
(Fri, Mar 7th) 8-5, +3.13 units
(Sat, Mar 8th) 13-10, +1.85 units
__________________________
(Overall) 40-29-1 (58.0%), +6.97 units

Any profit gained is a good day,Reg. I had some of those close calls finally go my way yesterday. Won the Ala. and BYU unders each by a half, and needed OT in the Iowa St/OK st to get the over as well as Iowa St covering by a half. Post when you can, hope we do good today.

**Regul8er** · 03-09-14, 10:21 AM

Pretty excited about the lighter card today. Let's go boys!

Saturday, March 8th (continued)

(Big South) Winthrop +2.5 - 1.01 units to Win 1 Unit
(Atlantic Sun) Mercer ML - 0.87 units to Win 1 Unit
(Missouri Valley) Indiana St +13 - 1.05 units to Win 1 unit
(Colonial) Towson ML - 1.50 units to Win 1 unit
(Colonial) Delaware ML - 2.30 units to Win 1 unit
(Metro Atlantic) Canisius +4 - 1.05 units to Win 1 unit
(Metro Atlantic) Quinnipiac +6 - 1.02 units to Win 1 unit

**leetreaper** · 03-09-14, 10:29 AM

Will join on Mercer, gl.

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-09-14, 10:30 AM

Love Dely ML trying to find something to pair it with

But nothing right now, might just pound ml

**Regul8er** · 03-09-14, 10:43 AM

LKid......ya Delaware is clicking right now, just don't see Northeastern taking this one. Looks like I should have waited a little longer on Towson, could have had -1.5 at -120, and possibly saved 0.3 units. But on the other hand, looks like I grabbed Indiana St and Canisius at the right time.

**Regul8er** · 03-10-14, 07:39 AM

Disappointing day yesterday.....was hoping to end the first week off on a strong note. Indiana St had the cover for me, but with the scrubs on in the last minute, a guy through up an airball 3, only to bank off the glass right to a Shocker under the hoop for a garbage put back to put them up 14 with about 5 seconds left.....those drive me insane, because that's the difference between a winning and losing day. Also, Quinnipiac really disappointed me. I've been following them all year, and thought their dominance in the paint would beat the up an down teams like Iona and Canisius.....guess I was wrong. Oh well...up over 5 units on the week is still a pretty nice week. 1K is more then I make a week working my 9-5, so I'll take it.

(Mon, Mar 3rd) 2-0, +2.00 units
(Tues, Mar 4th) 6-1, +4.95 units
(Wed, Mar 5th) 5-9, -5.39 units
(Thurs, Mar 6th) 6-4-1, +0.43 units
(Fri, Mar 7th) 8-5, +3.13 units
(Sat, Mar 8th) 13-10, +1.85 units
(Sun, Mar 9th) 3-4, -1.58 units
__________________________
(Overall) 43-33-1 (56.6%), +5.39 units

**inZane** · 03-10-14, 07:56 AM

A good week, Reg. Yeah I thought we had that Ind. St. cover too. Oh well, today's a clean slate. Let's chalk up some winners.

**Regul8er** · 03-10-14, 07:59 AM

Thanks inZane.....all in all, a nice little week all things considered. I swear I'll fade Wichita St every single game until they lose...I don't even care. I should have known better on the Towson/Bill & Mary game as well. I should have followed line movement, I couldn't understand why Towson opened around -5, and got chopped down to -2.5. Looks like we have 8 games on the slate for tonight......4 MAC games, 2 WCC games and the CAA and MAAC championship! Let's start the week strong like last week.

**inZane** · 03-10-14, 08:14 AM

I sometimes get alarmed with the line movement too. But you never know how to interpret that. Is it sharp, is it public?

**Regul8er** · 03-10-14, 09:10 AM

Thought it would be interesting to look at my numbers by Conference in the 1st week.

Atlantic Sun: 6-1
Horizon League: 6-1
Metro Atlantic: 6-2-1
Patriot League: 5-3
Ohio Valley: 4-3
West Coast: 3-3
Big South: 5-6
Colonial: 3-4
Missouri Valley: 3-6
Northeast: 2-4

**Regul8er** · 03-10-14, 10:59 AM

I'll get all my games posted up later on, but I wanted to share 1 with you as I just locked it in.

Delaware ML (-185) They were at -190 ML, and when I went in to make the play, the price moved to -220 which bummed me out. Glad I waited, because about 15 minutes later, the price dropped to -185. End of the day, I saved myself about $80 just by waiting (of course only if it loses).....really starting to realize how important getting the right price is. Obviously bigger swings with ML prices, but still very important to get the right line at the right price.

But Delaware should be able to score tonight, and score at will. In CAA regular season play, they are averaging 77.4 PPG....which would jump if you included the 87 they scored in the Quarters and Semis. Imagine they didn't have to deal with the suspension of Sadler and Threatt earlier in CAA play? Couple this with the fact that William & Mary is giving up the most PPG in CAA play at 72.0. Also, they have the worst defensive FG%, as teams are torching them at over 46%. The one issue I see with Delaware is they have the 2nd worst rebounding margin in the CAA......but guess what, William & Mary is the one team worse. Delaware actually outrebounding W&M by 9 total in their two meetings this season. I guess my only concern is that W&M could get hot from downtown, as they hit about 2.5 more per game and shoot about 9% better.

Also, I love the fact that the Blue Hens have 3 guys who average over 18 PPG. Is there another team in the country that can say this? One is their PG and slasher, one is their swingman and deep threat, and the other is their big man in the post. This is awesome because if one of these guys is off, the others are able to pick up the slack. Oh ya, Anderson and Baptiste also average over 10 PPG.....so options are seemingly endless. William & Mary isn't near as balanced, as they really rely on Thornton to carry the scoring load. And looking his game log, in W&M's last 7 losses, he is only putting up 11.9 PPG, compared to his season average of 18.6! So basically, if Thornton is held in check, W&M is in deep trouble. Delaware has been able to hold him to only 29 points in 2 games, an average of 14.5....so they've done a pretty nice job.

FInally, I like the fact that Delaware was able to win 89-72 at W&M about 6 weeks ago, and that was without their PG Jarvis Threatt.

**Lincoln Scofield** · 03-10-14, 11:05 AM

All that said and they're only -4.5...does that seem right to you? Just honestly asking, but it doesn't to me. Or do you think the low line is due to that face it's a tourney game cause I've noticed that's been a trend...

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-10-14, 11:10 AM

dely ml again for me as well

been on this team all year look out for them in the tourney

**Regul8er** · 03-10-14, 11:33 AM

Honestly, I thought the spread was going to be around -5 or -6......but with that said, I just don't see Delaware slipping up. W&M has been playing good basketball themselves, and beat a pretty solid Towson team yesterday.

**Regul8er** · 03-10-14, 04:14 PM

Let's get er goin boys......time for a big day!

Monday, March 10th

(Colonial) Delaware ML - 1.85 units to Win 1 unit
(Metro Atlantic) Manhattan ML - 1.30 units to Win 1 unit
(MAC) Ohio -13.5 - 1.05 units to Win 1 Unit
(MAC) Kent St ML - 0.83 units to Win 1 Unit
(MAC) Eastern Michigan -12 - 1.02 units to Win 1 unit
(MAC) Northern Illinois -3 - 1.02 units to Win 1 unit
(West Coast) St. Mary's +8 - 1.40 units to Win 1 unit ***bought 1.5 points***
(West Coast) San Francisco +5.5 - 1.03 units to Win 1 unit

**Regul8er** · 03-10-14, 09:41 PM

St Marys might be one of the worst offensive teams in the country. When i dont take tem they are solid, when I do they cant break 50. One of the worst groups of seniors i think ive seen

**Regul8er** · 03-10-14, 09:58 PM

Things are gonna change guys. If i like a team to win whether there favorite by 3 or 10...Im taking ML. I liked Gonzaga, and talked myself out if it and bought points the other way. Sick of not winning games like Northern Illinois. Push with so many missed FT's trying to finish game off. Get ready to lay some wood boys!

**Regul8er** · 03-10-14, 10:42 PM

Really need San Fran to get to .500 on the day. I think Ive lost last game of the night the last 5 days. Time to snap the streak

**Regul8er** · 03-11-14, 07:47 AM

.500 on the day, but I'm not gonna lie, I'm very disappointed. Had the potential for a 5-3 or 6-2 day. Bowling Green couldn't hit a FT to stretch the lead above 3. Missed a few at the end of regulation and OT, to cause a push. Eastern Michigan has an 18 point lead with the ball and less then 1:30 left, and proceeded to push after some missed FT's and a couple 3's by Central. Ohio had the cover almost the whole game, but Ball St scored 12 points on 5 possessions in garbage time to bury me.

Heck, even BYU and Delaware attempted to screw me over. I'm feeling confident as I had great reads all night....but again, just didn't get the breaks you need to succeed. Let's attempt this again.

(Mon, Mar 3rd) 2-0, +2.00 units
(Tues, Mar 4th) 6-1, +4.95 units
(Wed, Mar 5th) 5-9, -5.39 units
(Thurs, Mar 6th) 6-4-1, +0.43 units
(Fri, Mar 7th) 8-5, +3.13 units
(Sat, Mar 8th) 13-10, +1.85 units
(Sun, Mar 9th) 3-4, -1.58 units
(Mon, Mar 10th) 3-3-2, -0.28 units
__________________________
(Overall) 46-36-1 (56.1%), +5.11 units

**Lincoln Scofield** · 03-11-14, 08:17 AM

Stay focused man. Keep doing what you're doing.

**inZane** · 03-11-14, 08:35 AM

I still believe the best is yet to come. Get 'em, Reg!

**Regul8er** · 03-11-14, 02:22 PM

Laying a bit of wood on a few games, but I feel confident doing so as I feel the matchups are very favorable.

Tuesday, March 11th

(Northeast) Robert Morris ML - 2.35 units to Win 1 unit
(Horizon League) Wright St ML - 2.40 units to Win 1 unit
(West Coast) Gonzaga ML - 1.85 units to Win 1 Unit
(Conference USA) North Texas -6 - 1.03 units to Win 1 Unit
(Conference USA) Marshall -1.5 - 1.05 units to Win 1 unit
(Conference USA) Texas San Antonio +6 - 1.02 units to Win 1 unit

**leetreaper** · 03-11-14, 02:46 PM

utsa and zags looking good, gl.

**Regul8er** · 03-11-14, 06:23 PM

Mount St Marys or Milwaukee cant miss a shot. Both around 80% 10 mins in! Funny thing is Bobby Mo and Wright St are teo of te stingiest teams defensively in the country. Lets hope these dont lose! Im not ready to disappear yet

. I just have the worst feeling in my stomach this is it though. Sometimes you can just tell the way games go

**Regul8er** · 03-11-14, 06:30 PM

Oh my fu(kin god. Robert morris down 20. Wright st down 15. Guys, you cant make this sh!t up. You really cant

**azsportswin** · 03-11-14, 06:35 PM

It's college basketball....game of runs and averages.....neither MSM nor Milwaukee will keep this high shooting percentage for entire game. Gotta see the whole game out!!

**Regul8er** · 03-11-14, 06:47 PM

Ya but 48 points by MSM in 1st half??? The game might be done already. Milwaukee shoots under 30% from 3, one of the worst in country. Wright st defends the 3 as good as anyone. Milwaukee killing em from deep, lol. I dont know why i waste my time

**Regul8er** · 03-11-14, 07:02 PM

Officially tilted.....the Colonials look brutal.

**blackeyeshamus** · 03-11-14, 07:08 PM

Good luck, pal.

**Regul8er** · 03-11-14, 07:11 PM

Thanks. A loss will pretty much take me out of the game. But Bobby Mo was 12-2 at home. MSM lost a ton on the road. Absolutely no reason Morris doesnt make a deep run and give themselves a shot at the end to win. They are the class of the conference for a reason, tonnes of vets. Theyll get back in this thing, no reason not to

**blackeyeshamus** · 03-11-14, 07:13 PM

2h-10@+195 looks good.

**Regul8er** · 03-11-14, 07:28 PM

Is robert morris really not gonna make one single run? You have seriously got to be kidding me. MSM is under 500 on the year

**Regul8er** · 03-11-14, 07:31 PM

Were talkin college hoops. Seriously not run from wright on bobby mo at home with everything on the line. Im seriously shell shocked right now