Gwills 12-13 college hoops

bald_guy · 11-28-12, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by groovybrandone

elon/santa clara line moved like a monster. sc seems like value is lost, though i dont know much about them

I'm sure the value is lost now but went for it anyway. Also put a 3 team teaser in that gives me back the great Gwills lines. Tonight should be an interesting night.

gwills · 11-28-12, 05:00 PM

Baldguy, you should be fine. Hopefully Santa Clara will be good up to double digits. Yeah guys, these lines have been dancing all over the place. I was fortunate to hop on the ones early that moved and catch the others in a good spot.

Catchn_Picks · 11-28-12, 05:49 PM

SC was a RAS pick...that just moves the lines in a second. Nothing anyone can do about that...lose a couple of points of value now

Good luck gwills..tailing you on some of these. Let's get em.

bald_guy · 11-28-12, 07:57 PM

The Clemson game is a bit painful to watch.

Can anyone make me feel better by telling me Clemson is just a slow first half team and really turns it up 2nd half?

cboogie · 11-28-12, 08:00 PM

yeah really. Getting straight murdered.

gwills · 11-29-12, 12:10 AM

Originally posted by cboogie

yeah really. Getting straight murdered.

My apologies guys, I honestly don't know how I missed it, but I didn't realize Jennings was out. Also it doesn't help when they come out shooting like 2%. Probably a bad cap on my part, but still have a chance to go 3-1 with Santa Clara! They're in overtime..

wizcodlifa · 11-29-12, 12:32 AM

g wills or anyone else in this forum do you have a macbook pro??? please help me out i ma have accidentally deleted a downloader. i try and download a poker site but it makes me use textedit, which obviously doesnt download. thena bunch of random a55 letters come up.
someone please help i had no where else to go with this question

bald_guy · 11-29-12, 12:37 AM

Originally posted by Catchn_Picks

SC was a RAS pick...

Just goes to show even paying big money for picks don't always guarantee a win.

bald_guy · 11-29-12, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by gwills

My apologies guys, I honestly don't know how I missed it, but I didn't realize Jennings was out. Also it doesn't help when they come out shooting like 2%. Probably a bad cap on my part, but still have a chance to go 3-1 with Santa Clara! They're in overtime..

No biggie. 2-2 isn't that bad of a night. Could have been much worse. Thanks for your picks. Better luck next time.

gwills · 11-29-12, 12:49 AM

Originally posted by wizcodlifa

g wills or anyone else in this forum do you have a macbook pro??? please help me out i ma have accidentally deleted a downloader. i try and download a poker site but it makes me use textedit, which obviously doesnt download. thena bunch of random a55 letters come up.
someone please help i had no where else to go with this question

I do have a macbook pro and from my experience that happens when you try to download a program specifically designed for windows on a mac. I know exactly what you're talking about with the text-edit thing. I don't play online poker anymore, but I used to and I had to install Windows on my mac using bootcamp. That was the only way to solve it.

gwills · 11-29-12, 12:52 AM

Clemson -4
Santa Clara -5.5
Elon +1
Illinois -9

34-20 overall. Picks coming.

wizcodlifa · 11-29-12, 01:06 AM

thank you gwills. i appreciate it. i was jw how you play each play? just off gut? statistical research? line movement?

gwills · 11-29-12, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by wizcodlifa

thank you gwills. i appreciate it. i was jw how you play each play? just off gut? statistical research? line movement?

A lot of it, I must admit, is gut feeling because I watch a lot of college ball (probably too much, should focus more on my studies) and just kind of know the teams pretty well. I do have a system I use to calculate every game to see whether I think a line is off. It involves certain stat categories as well as other factors that I add in such as home court advantage (how many points that may be worth) and then I look at, say like, if a team has more senior leadership and is likely to be more consistent rather than having freshman in one of their first few road games in a season.

Its just something I came up with myself, not too complex.

gwills · 11-29-12, 10:33 AM

Plays for today

Notre Dame -1
South Dakota +3

bald_guy · 11-29-12, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by gwills

34-20

You are at 62% and RAS is at 65%. People pay RAS big money for there picks. Never know your hobby might turn into a lucrative job at some point. Happened many times in the past. I of course recommend staying in college. College education can never hurt.

pimpinaces · 11-29-12, 12:45 PM

Not bad.. Why ND? Just because home court?

ZachShalack420 · 11-29-12, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by pimpinaces

Not bad.. Why ND? Just because home court?

yah, thoughts on this?

gwills · 11-29-12, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by pimpinaces

Not bad.. Why ND? Just because home court?

Originally posted by ZachShalack420

yah, thoughts on this?

I like ND a lot for a couple of reasons.

First of all, Mike Bray's burn offense is underrated. Watching this game you will notice a lot of GOOD shots for ND late in the shot clock. He likes to control time of possession, and that will be key because it keeps the ball out of Kentucky's hands. For Freshman on the road (many of them their first true road game), that can rattle and frustrate you.

Also, home court. Basically a PK game (I got it at -1). Again, that first true road game factor for the UK freshman. ND athletics just in general are going off right now and the students and everyone should be out in full force to try and rattle Big Blue.

Last, and I factor this in after everything else, ND is led by seniors and upperclassmen, while Kentucky obviously is not. They will be level-headed in this type of game at home. Atkins, Grant, Cooley, etc...They also have plenty of size inside to neutralize Noel / Poythress.

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gwills · 11-29-12, 02:49 PM

Also dudes, wish I'd waited on S. Dakota! Its at 4.5 now!

Don't know why its moving like that I really like the Coyotes here at home. I would put another unit, but I don't like to do that, just like to stick with my gut on the size of the play. GL tonight guys, hopefully my picks can keep it going.

Also guys, considering maybe .25 Unit on Rider ML, or maybe a full unit on +4. Stay tuned.

bald_guy · 11-29-12, 03:11 PM

Originally posted by gwills

Also dudes, wish I'd waited on S. Dakota! Its at 4.5 now!

I got in at +4. It's still +4 on my book, bovada.

shooms79 · 11-29-12, 03:31 PM

I can get Dakota at +5...im gonna hit that $h!t

bald_guy · 11-29-12, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by shooms79

I can get Dakota at +5...im gonna hit that $h!t

It's +5 on bovada now too. Wonder what this line movement means?

gwills · 11-29-12, 04:16 PM

Originally posted by bald_guy

It's +5 on bovada now too. Wonder what this line movement means?

Means people are on WIU

steveq · 11-29-12, 04:20 PM

I have 5
at stakedata

bald_guy · 11-29-12, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by gwills

Means people are on WIU

Hope that's all it is. Hopefully an late injury didn't happen books or people got a wind off. Should make for a fun game tonight. Good luck everyone. Lets beat some WIU butt.

gwills · 11-29-12, 09:02 PM

Guys I'm gonna add in Marq / Florida OVER 63 1H for 1 Unit

bald_guy · 11-29-12, 09:51 PM

Originally posted by gwills

Guys I'm gonna add in Marq / Florida OVER 63 1H for 1 Unit

62 instead of 63. Bummer. Lucky for me, I wasn't able to bet on it in time.

The SD game might still happen. Going to be super close!!

gwills · 11-29-12, 09:52 PM

2-1, 36-21

Marq / Florida OVER 63 1H
South Dakota +3
Notre Dame -1

Shoulda been 2-1 with the OVER 1H bet. The pace literally should have had more like 90 1H points, I just get so unlucky on totals I bet on. The pace I like happens, and then gets screwed by poor / good shooting depending on the bet. Oh well, need a good bounce back day, ready for tomorrow. Still over 60%, so hangin' in there.

**Edit. SD pulls it out and loses by 2!! Amazing! I posted and thought it was over! Hah, luckiest I've gotten so far this year**

gwills · 11-29-12, 09:58 PM

Oh crap, I didn't realize S. Dakota made it to within 4....might still be a winning day!

bald_guy · 11-29-12, 10:04 PM

Originally posted by gwills

Oh crap, I didn't realize S. Dakota made it to within 4....might still be a winning day!

They sure did. Your pick won Dude. Awesome. 2-0 for me. Thanks!!

gwills · 11-29-12, 10:06 PM

baldguy, might make one more pick. Stay tuned...

Nvm, I don't like the 2H line on Marquette / UF, but what a game by the Coyotes! Thanks for losing by 2! hah.

lookalive342 · 11-29-12, 10:08 PM

Awsome call on South Dakota man. Keep up the good picks!

bald_guy · 11-29-12, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by gwills

The pace I like happens, and then gets screwed by poor / good shooting depending on the bet. so far this year**

You totals are nearly always wrong. Perhaps when you think of doing a total, you should figure it all out, and instead of picking what you figured out, pick the exact opposite. Ie, Under/over, over/under.

I got the idea off Seinfield. Just a thought. Great night. Thanks so much for your non-total picks tonight. $$

gwills · 11-29-12, 10:12 PM

"I want the complete opposite of tuna on toast! Chicken Salad, on rye, untoasted, with a side of potato salad, and a cup of tea!! Hah!" - Costanza

"If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite, would have to be right..."

RDUBS · 11-29-12, 10:16 PM

That was f'n fun! Cursed you out in the first half.... Tried to give you points but not working? Unreal comeback.