New Heavy Favorites Experiment - $500 Banking Point

[mcduggly]

The rules are still the same. I will start with $100, bet on heavy favorites only, and then rollover all winnings into the next bet. I am aiming to hit the $500 mark, and once I do that, I will bank it and start the system over. I started a thread doing this, but tried getting to $1,000 instead of $500, and I reached $800 and $550, so I came up short both times, but I would have banked $1,000 if I used this system instead.

Bet #1 is on it's way.

[mcduggly]

Attempt #1 - Bet #1 :
Stephen F. Austin over Sam Houston State @ -330
$100 to win $30.30

No time for a write-up for this bet, as I'm very busy right now. I will get more in-depth later in the day.

Best of luck to everybody today.

[mcduggly]

And or those of you who haven't seen my older thread, you can see it here:

Old Experiment

[Chozzdogg]

Good work, this time i can get on board from the start. Hope you/everyone see some profits this time round

[dsk0057]

On it duggly. Let's do it. GL!!!

[FreddDS]

Great stuff mcduggly, let's get it!

[tb1984]

Check it in. Good luck.

[swordsandtequila]

Get 'er dun!

[mcduggly]

[NOREGRETS]

I was able to grab it at -350. Price is currently between -400 and -420. Let's get it

[mcduggly]

SF Austin up 13 with under 8 minutes to go.

I'll start looking into the next play.

[dsk0057]

Please post the next play soon since I have to go out and wont have internet access for a little bit. Thanks.

[mcduggly]

Please post the next play soon since I have to go out and wont have internet access for a little bit. Thanks.

I post my plays when the previous one cashes. This game will be over soon.

[RL75]

I took Georgetown. They're not a super favorite but I have to believe they'll beat a terrible litre team. I got them at -240. Due to the overtime this game still hasnt started yet.

[mcduggly]

I took Georgetown. They're not a super favorite but I have to believe they'll beat a terrible litre team. I got them at -240. Due to the overtime this game still hasnt started yet.

I don't know man, Pitt is tough and probably have the best player on the court in Ashton Gibbs. Good luck nonetheless.

[NOREGRETS]

Lookin' good bud!!!

[mcduggly]

Bet #1 - SF Austin over Sam Houston - $100 to win $30.30 - WIN


SF Austin Started the game off strong and never looked back, outscoring Sam Houston by 15 in the second half and eventually winning by 22. I will post the next play in a couple minutes.

[mcduggly]

Lookin' good bud!!!

[areyoukiddingme]

Don't force a play just to please the thread. Make sure it's a high quality play. Discipline is of the utmost importance with this 'system'

[mcduggly]

Attempt #1 - Bet #2 :
UCLA Bruins over USC First Half @ -450
$130.30 to win $28.96

This should be the easiest bet of the day. UCLA is way above and beyond USC in terms of talent, and have won both first halves of the teams' meetings this season by 15 and 18. UCLA should dominate USC right off the bat, so I like this bet a lot.

Best of luck to everybody!

[TripleDDD]

Mcduggly what you think about UCLA ML 1H. I know the Montana 1H burned everyone last night but USC is garbage and I cant see them winning the 1H here.

edit: lol nvm you are on it

[mcduggly]

Don't force a play just to please the thread. Make sure it's a high quality play. Discipline is of the utmost importance with this 'system'

I know, I definitely know what you are talking about, but there are so many games on today so I have a ton of options and quality plays.

[NOREGRETS]

Not offered at my book. FUK that, but hope it hits for you guys.

[mcduggly]

Mcduggly what you think about UCLA ML 1H. I know the Montana 1H burned everyone last night but USC is garbage and I cant see them winning the 1H here.

edit: lol nvm you are on it

Great minds think alike, huh?

Not offered at my book. FUK that, but hope it hits for you guys.

Do you have anything for Savannah State?

[sintax]

Attempt #1 - Bet #2 :
UCLA Bruins over USC First Half @ -450
$130.30 to win $28.96

This should be the easiest bet of the day. UCLA is way above and beyond USC in terms of talent, and have won both first halves of the teams' meetings this season by 15 and 18. UCLA should dominate USC right off the bat, so I like this bet a lot.

Best of luck to everybody!

on it, except i took reduced juice with a "first team to 20" prop at -290. i would honestly consider even taking the -7 half time spread. i cannot tell you how bad USC is (i live in pac 12 region). easily one the worst teams i've seen, absolute trash at rebounding. i'm mildly upset this is the last time i'll get to bet against them haha. definitely a solid bet

[areyoukiddingme]

I just took double result... UCLA at half, UCLA at final... -350

[Sport_Fish]

I don't know if you bet NBA with this but I'm gonna be playing one of these two bets I really like:

OKC + MIAMI ML Parlay. I think this is simply a 'lock'

Lakers (vs Wizards). Wizards haven't beaten the Lakers since 2006 with a 1-9 H2H last ten meetings. Eventho lakers lost to Pistons, I doubt they lose B2B to two shit ass teams.

[FreddDS]

I think we should just let mcduggly make his plays. If everyone starts giving him there opinions of games to take, this thread is gonna get clogged with different plays from everyone.

[Holy Grail 8]

I have experience with this strategy and I thought I might as well share my knowledge. I have used this strategy since the beginning of the NBA season, betting ML with odds close to -300 and cashing out after every 5 I have a total win record of 38-3 with a total profit of 8.5 units.

First I’m not sure if everyone is aware but this strategy is the exact same payoff structure as a normal parlay. The great things about this strategy are; that all the bets do not have to be on the same day, you can draw out the parlay for as long as you want or cash out your winnings whenever you want.

Second it is important to have a realistic idea of what the probability of reaching your target is. I think betting games at -400 you should realistically be able to pick 85%, so long as you are selective. The most important thing is not necessarily picking winners but avoiding upsets. If you are trying to reach $500 you will need to pick 7 or 8 games in a row which you will reach approximately 30% of the time.

Picking the number of bets is an important factor. I am relatively risk averse and like to take profit when I have it, that’s why I cash out after every 5. It is interesting to note that the more bets you place the more profitable it could be in the long run, this is due to the multiplying effect. You will not win every time you attempt but so long as you can pick consistently then you will end up profitable.

I have attached a spreadsheet for those that are interested. You can play around with the inputs to get a good idea about potential returns and probabilities of winning.

BOL

[areyoukiddingme]

Not looking good at all here

[FreddDS]

UCLA shooting 5-24 right now. Absolutely terrible! Not looking good at all!

[RL75]

My oh my, missed layup to cover.

[areyoukiddingme]

I'm shocked UCLA pulled that 1H out. This should be a lesson. 1H bets are never a great idea, no matter how confident you feel about them.

[Sport_Fish]

lol wow...I think its safe to say that was nearly a miracle cover by UCLA for 1H.

[areyoukiddingme]

Nice win on Georgetown today