LUNT's 4Q Betting System

[dlunc3]

One of these days (or weeks/months) I am going to try to sit down and backtest 5+ years of this... so far all we have seen is 1.5 years worth. It has been great no doubt, but I would like to see the longterm numbers... and what filters need to be in place.

Hopefully we can get that cash back tomorrow.. hate going to bed with that -$500 taste in my mouth

[njb5572]

One of these days (or weeks/months) I am going to try to sit down and backtest 5+ years of this... so far all we have seen is 1.5 years worth. It has been great no doubt, but I would like to see the longterm numbers... and what filters need to be in place. Hopefully we can get that cash back tomorrow.. hate going to bed with that -$500 taste in my mouth

More than willing to help! Just LMK

[alamo]

The system is flawed in a few ways. The main one is that in my opinion it is only working when its the HOME team who has lost all 3qtrs. A home crowd will demand a 4th qtr effort even if their team is being blown out. Tonight on the other hand there was no way the Portland crowd were going to allow their team to be beaten in a 4th qtr. Home crowds love scores period.... Whether their up by 1,10,20 or 40.

[casdio]

You guys bet on ML or ATS?

[mcduggly]

The system is flawed in a few ways. The main one is that in my opinion it is only working when its the HOME team who has lost all 3qtrs. A home crowd will demand a 4th qtr effort even if their team is being blown out. Tonight on the other hand there was no way the Portland crowd were going to allow their team to be beaten in a 4th qtr. Home crowds love scores period.... Whether their up by 1,10,20 or 40.

Why does that matter at all? As long as the win percentage is at or around 75%, nobody here cares if it's the home team winning the fourth or not.

[dlunc3]

det -1.5 (-115)

[1gamer]

det -1.5 (-115)

Missed it.

[dlunc3]

just barely miss it? might be a good thing..

[njb5572]

1gamer what book did you end up choosing?

[1gamer]

1gamer what book did you end up choosing?

It appeared that dlunc3 was the only one consistently placing these wagers at Sportsbetting.ag, so I went with them.

[hydrosmak]

Got Boston +130 ML for the 4th quarter! (5Dimes)

Guess it doesn't qualify for one of these plays but with such a deficit this one seemed to be a good play.

[alamo]

Cash the Pistons -2 4th Q

[1gamer]

Nice win on the Pistons

[dlunc3]

winner

(wonder where lunt101 went?)

[dlunc3]

Milw +1.5

[1gamer]

Bucks +1.5 -110

[dlunc3]

deng in there draining 3s up 20 in the 4th

[dlunc3]

deng dominating... in the game up 20+ with 5 minutes left.. he deserves to get hurt again.. terrible coaching

[1gamer]

Nice win on the Bucks

[dlunc3]

[merikson]

Bummer....sportsbook.ag didn't have either win available tonight.

[1gamer]

2-0 tonite, not to shabby.

[mikea33]

might attempt this system.

[RL75]

Bummer....sportsbook.ag didn't have either win available tonight.

For some reason they only have certain games available for quarter bets. You'll know what games are available before the tip off of the first game. They never add games later on it seems. Like tonight out of the 13 games they only had 7 games for quarter bets. I don't know why they do this, but there must be some reason for it. Unfortunately, the 2 games that qualified for this system were not games available on their board tonight.

[1gamer]

For the season 81-29

Since Lunt's 1st post 24-9

Let's hope the 2nd half of NBA season goes as well.

[Soldier4Life]

Thanks You in advance for everyones support with this thread, just 2 quick questions to anyone that can answer this for me.

#1. Does Reno NV or Las Vegas NV have any Sportsbooks that you can walk into and make 4th qtr wagers ?
#2. Does Bookmaker or Sportsbetting.ag or Legends offer 4th qtr wagers for ALL there NBA games , or ONLY for National televised games ? I want to open an account with the sportbook that gives me the most games available for this system.
Respectfully
Soldier4Life

[mcduggly]

Thanks You in advance for everyones support with this thread, just 2 quick questions to anyone that can answer this for me.

#1. Does Reno NV or Las Vegas NV have any Sportsbooks that you can walk into and make 4th qtr wagers ?
#2. Does Bookmaker or Sportsbetting.ag or Legends offer 4th qtr wagers for ALL there NBA games , or ONLY for National televised games ? I want to open an account with the sportbook that gives me the most games available for this system.
Respectfully
Soldier4Life

I know this might not be much help, but 5dimes has some great options for quarter betting on I think every game.

[RL75]

5dimes only offers 1q and 3q bets. At least I haven't been able to find 4q bets on there.

[mcduggly]

5dimes only offers 1q and 3q bets. At least I haven't been able to find 4q bets on there.

I have seen 4th quarters many times. Maybe they wait until the first half is over or maybe even the first three quarters to see how things are going and they can adjust their lines just before it starts.

[mcduggly]

5dimes only offers 1q and 3q bets. At least I haven't been able to find 4q bets on there.

Actually, I just looked and they have 1st, 2nd, 3rd, AND 4th quarter lines up already for all the games tonight.

[Riceboi]

Actually, I just looked and they have 1st, 2nd, 3rd, AND 4th quarter lines up already for all the games tonight.

you can't do this strategy with 5dimes. they don't have live betting for the 4th Q during the 3rd Q or even when the 3rd Q is up. And if they do it's for certain games only not ALL the games.

[mcduggly]

you can't do this strategy with 5dimes. they don't have live betting for the 4th Q during the 3rd Q or even when the 3rd Q is up. And if they do it's for certain games only not ALL the games.

Hmmm, I've done it several times before. I haven't paid attention to which/how many teams were up though.

[njb5572]

There are a lot of books that will have all four quarter bets available before tip off. However, after tip off they will disappear (I encourage you to verify this). What is most likely happening at 5dimes as is what also happens at bookmaker; the fourth quarter lines that are appearing are coming from their "live betting" option. I can say from experience that bookmaker only has a few NBA games each night that are available for 4th quarter betting, usually nationally televised games. I felt this was the best option, seeing that sb.ag's SBR rating was C-.

[RL75]

I have seen 4th quarters many times. Maybe they wait until the first half is over or maybe even the first three quarters to see how things are going and they can adjust their lines just before it starts.

Yes that's true but as soon as the games start watch them disappear.

[mcduggly]

There are a lot of books that will have all four quarter bets available before tip off. However, after tip off they will disappear (I encourage you to verify this). What is most likely happening at 5dimes as is what also happens at bookmaker; the fourth quarter lines that are appearing are coming from their "live betting" option. I can say from experience that bookmaker only has a few NBA games each night that are available for 4th quarter betting, usually nationally televised games. I felt this was the best option, seeing that sb.ag's SBR rating was C-.

Yes that's true but as soon as the games start watch them disappear.

I will check tonight while the games are going on and I will let you know which ones disappear and/or appear again as the night goes on.