LUNT's 4Q Betting System

[LUNT101]

The system is simple. If a team wins each of the 1st 3Qs straight up, place a 4Q bet AGAINST that team. Most books DO NOT include OT in 4Q wagers, but make sure you know your book's rules. This system DOES NOT include OT.

Over the past 32 occurrences, the system is 26-6, including 9-1 in its last 10.

Starting tonight I will do my best to track the plays in this thread and provide alerts on upcoming wagers. Some of the 10/10:30 EST games I will not post, because I simply will not be awake at the end of the 3rd Q during these games.

Keep in mind you will only have approximately 5 minutes in between the 3rd and 4th quarters to place your bet so you need to act quickly.

I will also do my best to provide alerts at halftime on potential upcoming wagers.

Good luck.

[YouHave2outs]

interesting. will look forward to seeing how this pans out, and i'm sure my joker as s will tail because i like action

[LUNT101]

And hopefully it will make you some money as well.

[LUNT101]

At halftime, potential plays on Atlanta and Boston.

[LUNT101]

I am going to start listing the potential plays as the team you should bet, not the team who has won the first 2 quarters.

Toronto won the 3rd quarter vs Atlanta, so right now we have potential plays of Cavaliers (vs BOS) and Pistons (vs NYK)

[onlooker]

I've always liked your avatar.

Good luck with your bets.

[LUNT101]

Official Play: CAVALIERS 4Q +1

[LUNT101]

I've always liked your avatar.

Good luck with your bets.

Thank you sir.

[LUNT101]

Potential plays:

Memphis (vs. DEN)
Detroit (vs. NYK)

[LUNT101]

CAVALIERS +1 WIN

Record: 1-0

[dlunc3]

The system is simple. If a team wins each of the 1st 3Qs straight up, place a 4Q bet AGAINST that team. The game must also be more than a 10 point margin at the conclusion of the 3Q. Most books DO NOT include OT in 4Q wagers, but make sure you know your book's rules. This system DOES NOT include OT.

Over the past 32 occurrences, the system is 26-6, including 9-1 in its last 10.

Starting tonight I will do my best to track the plays in this thread and provide alerts on upcoming wagers. Some of the 10/10:30 EST games I will not post, because I simply will not be awake at the end of the 3rd Q during these games.

Keep in mind you will only have approximately 5 minutes in between the 3rd and 4th quarters to place your bet so you need to act quickly.

I will also do my best to provide alerts at halftime on potential upcoming wagers.

Good luck.

Id be curious to see a few years of backtesting for this system... sounds pretty promising.. if I ever find some free hours, def. will try to back test

bol

[LUNT101]

Official Play: PISTONS 4Q +2

[ephi408]

Very interesting... will follow indeed

[LUNT101]

DETROIT +2 LOSS

Record: 1-1

I had a feeling this might not start on a tear since we are catching it at the tail end of a 9 for 10 run. Lost by 1 point. Patience.

[Riceboi]

anyone knows online books that allow this type of betting that allow US customers?

I already noticed this trend when the season started and it definitely has a lot of potential. 5dimes doesn't allow 4th Q betting after the third Q is over.

[dlunc3]

sportsbetting.com

[LUNT101]

Potential play - Bobcats (vs LAL)

I won't be posting if it is an official play so watch the 3rd quarter to find out.

[LUNT101]

So, I charted out the entire 2011-12 season to date, and the system's current record is 58-21 ATS (73.4%). Here are a few stats.

-Started the season on an 11-0 run.
-Has winning streaks of 11, 8, 11 and 6.
-Worst stretch was losing 6 of 9, but at that point in the season the system was 19-2 ATS so the -3 units was easy to swallow.
-Worst extended stretch was 9-10 ATS.
-When a HOME team lost the first 3 quarters they were 15-7 ATS (68.2%) in the 4Q. AWAY teams were 43-14 ATS (75.4%).

Overall these are some guady numbers. I will be charting out last season as well to make sure this is for real. However, this will take a while, and some games will go uncharted due to the fact I cannot find an archive of 4Q lines.

Thanks


EDIT: TO INCREASE OUR ODDS, THE SYSTEM WILL NOW ELIMINATE GAMES THAT HAVE UNDER A 10 POINT MARGIN @ END OF 3Q. <10 POINT DIFFERENTIAL = NO PLAY...10+ POINT DIFFERENTIAL = PLAY

[peeiempee]

What book offers live 4th quarter betting. If so it won't be on all games right?

[peeiempee]

Any other besides sportsbetting.com?

[dlunc3]

How are you backtesting this? How do you know what the 4th quarter spread was? Are you just going day by day and looking at every games box scores? Nice work so.far

[LUNT101]

How are you backtesting this? How do you know what the 4th quarter spread was? Are you just going day by day and looking at every games box scores? Nice work so.far

Yes, I am going day by day through the box scores. If the first 3 quarters are won by one of the teams, and the 4th quarter is within 3 points either way, I can check on SBR what the 4th quarter line was that day.

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/4th-quarter/

Next to the "TODAY | YESTERDAY" on the top left there is a calendar and you can go back to whatever day you'd like to see. It only goes back to November 2011 this way so I thought I wouldn't be able to back test this for last season properly, but I found if you just alter the date directly into your address bar it will pull up information for years past as well. I'm about 1/3 of the way through last season.

[LUNT101]

So, I've got great news. I back tested the system through every game last season and here is what I came up with.

-2010-2011 Regular season had an overall record of 131-65-6 ATS (66.8%) ... NOTE: This does not include games in which the games had a single digit point differential at the end of 3 quarters. Those games went 13-13 ATS so they will be filtered out.
-2010-2011 Postseason went 3-1 ATS
-Started the season 19-5 ATS.
-Had winning streaks of 13, 9, 10, 11.
-Worst stretches were 5-9, 4-7, 1-6... Never very many prolonged losing streaks
-In the regular season, when a HOME team lost the first 3 quarters they were 55-18-1 ATS (75.3%) in the 4Q. AWAY teams were 76-47-4 ATS (61.8%).

Will update tonight's game as they come.

Thanks

[dlunc3]

So, I've got great news. I back tested the system through every game last season and here is what I came up with.

-2010-2011 Regular season had an overall record of 131-65-6 ATS (66.8%) ... NOTE: This does not include games in which the games had a single digit point differential at the end of 3 quarters. Those games went 13-13 ATS so they will be filtered out.
-2010-2011 Postseason went 3-1 ATS
-Started the season 19-5 ATS.
-Had winning streaks of 13, 9, 10, 11.
-Worst stretches were 5-9, 4-7, 1-6... Never very many prolonged losing streaks
-In the regular season, when a HOME team lost the first 3 quarters they were 55-18-1 ATS (75.3%) in the 4Q. AWAY teams were 76-47-4 ATS (61.8%).

Will update tonight's game as they come.


Thanks

Great stuff man... sounds like you had some free time on your hands today! would love to help if I can find some free time (having a 2 yr old and wife dont help )

definitely interested and seeing a good 5/7 yrs worth of results... will definitely take some close attention ever night during the games, but could be a great money maker

[LUNT101]

I forced myself to have free time today bc I was excited about this research. Just have a lot more to do at work tomorrow

[LUNT101]

Potential Play: Toronto Raptors (@BOS)

[LUNT101]

Potential Plays:
Toronto Raptors (@BOS)
Phoenix Suns (@NO)

[LUNT101]

Official Play: RAPTORS 4Q +2

[dlunc3]

Official Play: RAPTORS 4Q +2

where are you getting this line???

I got -4!


02/01/12 4705 Toronto Raptors 4Q
OFF -4 (-115) Over 42.5 (-115)

[LUNT101]

What book are you at? Legends had +2, so did Bookmaker and Bet365.

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/4th-quarter/

I text my bets to my bookie so I use whatever the majority of books have on the SBR Lines page. Do they change the line once the 3Q is over at your book? You may have to anticipate the play and put it in during the 3Q.

[dlunc3]

What book are you at? Legends had +2, so did Bookmaker and Bet365.

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/4th-quarter/

I text my bets to my bookie so I use whatever the majority of books have on the SBR Lines page. Do they change the line once the 3Q is over at your book? You may have to anticipate the play and put it in during the 3Q.

yea the 4th quarter line wasnt opened until the 3rd was over... ughh oh well hopefully it doesnt matter

[LUNT101]

Doesn't look like Toronto's gonna cover this one.

Potential Plays:
Spurs (vs HOU)

[smggolfer]

LUNT101 where did you find the 4Q line at bookmaker? I looked and didn't see it, I might have over looked.

[LUNT101]

Looks like they have NBA - Quarters and NBA - In Progress Quarters

[LUNT101]

RAPTORS +2 LOSS

Record: 1-2

Again, tailing after a hot streak...