PR9's Plays of the day.. Sat Jan 7, 2012

[PR9]

One thing to note. This is Orlando's only game in 4 days:

http://www.nba.com/magic/schedule/

they have the next 2 days off after this game with a day off yesterday. I was hoping they would be playing a big western conference team tomorrow overlooking Sacramento. But that isn't the case. Regardless, I'll be making a wager on Sac + the 7 points at home. Not going big on it, just 2 or 3 units and we'll see how it goes.

[Love The Action]

I don't know the exact definition of RLM, but I'm seeing that about 65% of the public is on Orlando and yet the line is moving the wrong direction, telling me one thing.....I know it is only a half-point, but that is a big enough indicator for me to make a play on Sac. Already like the fact that they had a "meeting," and are playing with a new fire under a new head coach.
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What do you mean? The number is at -7.

The majority of all wagers are on Orlando and the line moved in favor of Orlando. That is the exact opposite of RLM. If you made a play at +6, you made a -ev play that is a long term loser because the line is now +7. On the other hand, if, for example, you bet it at +6 and the line went down to +5.5, then that would have been RLM (because it moved a full point from 6.5 to 5.5) and would have been a +ev long term profitable play because you would have been ahead of the market.

In addition, you can't just blindly tail the "players meeting" angle. It does not cash in every instance (that is a long term 50/50 proposition) and just because it cashed with the Wiz the other day, does not mean it will or will not cash today. Every situation is different. Just like you can't use the fatigue angle every time it comes up, you can't use the "players meeting" angle every time that one shows up. You need to use these angles in combination with other reasons.

[PR9]

Wiz going back to their old ways. Sac +7 was the better play for an underdog today. I do like the PO meeting angle in the first game following, especially if it's a home game.

they look rejuvenated a bit. they're trending upward. Also like the fact that they're the #1 offensive rebounding team in the league to matchup with howard. And Sac was 2nd in that department last year so it's no fluke.

and of course, The Magic have lost 12 of their last 16 trips to Sacramento. Totally stayed away from the wiz game today and consider myself ahead on the 5 unit cover they got for me vs the knicks. That game today scared me a bit

[Speedy88]

What do you mean? The number is at -7. The majority of all wagers are on Orlando and the line moved in favor of Orlando. That is the exact opposite of RLM. If you made a play at +6, you made a -ev play that is a long term loser because the line is now +7. On the other hand, if, for example, you bet it at +6 and the line went down to +5.5, then that would have been RLM (because it moved a full point from 6.5 to 5.5) and would have been a +ev long term profitable play because you would have been ahead of the market. In addition, you can't just blindly tail the "players meeting" angle. It does not cash in every instance (that is a long term 50/50 proposition) and just because it cashed with the Wiz the other day, does not mean it will or will not cash today. Every situation is different. Just like you can't use the fatigue angle every time it comes up, you can't use the "players meeting" angle every time that one shows up. You need to use these angles in combination with other reasons.

Your right, line has moved up to +7 as expected. Nothing is really jumping out to me for today's card. Are you playing anything other than Sac +7 today PR?<input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><!--Session data--><input onclick="jsCall();" id="jsProxy" type="hidden">

[PR9]

nothing else except for the Wiz/wolves under.

Here's a video of coach Keith Smart's interview during first practice with the Kings yesterday:

http://www.news10.net/sports/article/171976/3/Smart-expectations-A-running-Kings-team

mentally the team seems to be in the right frame of mind. No longer a look of despair but rather, rejuvenation, and they actually look like they're having fun. Re-energized. Even D Cousins mentions how "free" he feels playing basketball and looked very good in the last game (as did Tyreke and 3 players total who had season highs etc). Hopefully they play over their heads tonight with this new found energy and cover his thing

.

[Speedy88]

nothing else except for the Wiz/wolves under. Here's a video of coach Keith Smart's interview during first practice with the Kings yesterday: http://www.news10.net/sports/article...ing-Kings-team mentally the team seems to be in the right frame of mind. No longer a look of despair but rather, rejuvenation. Re-energized. Even D Cousins mentions how "free" he feels playing basketball and looked very good in the last game (as did Tyreke and 3 players total who had season highs etc). Hopefully they play over their heads tonight with this new found energy and cover his thing

Yeah I'm on this one with you. You cap any other sports or just NBA?

[NYSportsGuy210]

I am on Sacramento Kings +7 as well. Good luck.

[PR9]

Also, here's a video of the Kings players during practice yesterday:

http://www.news10.net/video/default.aspx?bctid=1373431753001

^ that, to me, looks like a team that's ready to put forth good effort and play a game. Even the guys on the bench are paying close attention with high level of interest of what's happening on the court. It's called, relaxed (in a good way) and focused. What a MASSIVE difference in the look on their faces compared to practice videos I watched just a couple weeks ago of this team.

I watch every practice video (and interviews) I can get my slimy hands on of every team in the league, either through the league site, or a local site..and watch them all religiously. I find it gives a GREAT gauge on things , and has helped my capping tremendously.

Why do you think I loved the Bucks yesterday to cover ? Getting 10 points with a team thats coming into LA ready to play ??!!! lol. I'll take those odds and 10 pts any day ! I loved what i saw from that team in their interviews and other reports before that game. There were other factors involved, but it was one of the reasons why they were my largest bet yesterday with 6 units on them. The Clips didn't give me such a vibe. They were overlooking the bucks, while the bucks took them a lot more seriously.

And it's "one" of the reasons why I laid an additional 2 units on the Bucks to cover the 1st half at +6 points. At the end of the 1st half, they not only covered, but were leading

I have essentially become a fan of every team ,, with no favoritism.

.

[PR9]

My final plays for today Jan 8..

Wiz/Wolves, under, 2u (won)
Sac + 7, 2u
OKC -5.5, 2u

short playlist today. I usually go heavy one day and small the next.. will have a longer playlist tomorrow.


* someone asked me on the previous page why I liked the Rockets yesterday. Well, through experience and paying attention to the NBA for a number of years, I've come to discover that rarely does a team blow out another team consecutively on a home-and-home b2b set. The Rockets got blown out in OKC the night before, and that wasn't going to happen again, especially when they were playing at home. I mean, even the Wizards covered the 2nd game against boston this year on a home-and-home after getting blown out by boston in the 1st game. Consecutive blowouts rarely happen. So that's why I wait for the first game and then bet on the 2nd game on those home&home spots/sets on consecutive nights.

Another thing that moved me was the fact that OKC is playing the spurs tonight. I am sure that they overlooked houston somewhat last night looking forward to this game vs the spurs tonight. The Spurs owned OKC last year and I think this will be a revenge game for OKC. And without manu, i suspect they cover.

moreover, the spurs remind me of the celtics. The celtics can nail some amazing shots at home, but on the road they don't seem to fall as often when they really need it. Another thing in common is the old legs on both of those teams. I made a fortune betting against boston last year on the end of a b2b set. They were just atrocious against the spread in covering in those spots (and especially on the road). And it has to do with the old legs. The spurs have shown signs of the same trend. To me, the spurs are the celtics of the west.

and finally, denver made San Antonio run alot yesterday. Any team that faces denver won't have it easy in their next mathcup when they face a good team that's waiting for them. By the end of the game the spurs looked gassed a bit. And that's why they couldn't put denver away and den covered.

[Speedy88]

today has been a huge blunder on my part. Got caught up with NFL, and for some reason I thought tip off for Kings was at 4 PST and didn't get my bet in. Between the Steelers get thwarped and now this, I'm
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[PR9]

sorry to hear speedy. I had Giants w/ 2 units. Don't bet NFL much but the Giants are good at home and atlanta (with matt ryan) are quite poor on the road vs good teams. That front defensive front-4 on NY gets after people.

ps- Cousins for Sac is playing like a Beast tonight so far in this game vs Orl. Kings down by 2 but they are a horrible 1st half team and usually play better in the 2nd when at home. we'll see what happens.

[Sport_Fish]

Not liking my SAC +7. Howard hasnt even gotten going yet, and barely has any minutes and Magic are leading. Gonna need some big things from SAC 2nd half

[Love The Action]

My final plays for today Jan 8..

Wiz/Wolves, under, 2u (won)
Sac + 7, 2u
OKC -5.5, 2u

Where did you post the Wiz/Wolves under at before the game?

The only time I saw you talk about that one was after the game was over. Did I miss something in here or did you post it in another thread?

Good luck with OKC, I like that one as well but since it's at -6, I'm not so sure. Did you buy the hook to 5.5?

[PR9]

Well this will probably sink Sac. Tyreke with what looks like a serious ankle injury right before the half, he had to be helped off the court and it looked bad. He was playing really well with some nice drives and playing inspired basketball in that 1st half

[Speedy88]

sorry to hear speedy. I had Giants w/ 2 units. Don't bet NFL much but the Giants are good at home and atlanta (with matt ryan) are quite poor on the road vs good teams. That front defensive front-4 on NY gets after people. ps- Cousins for Sac is playing like a Beast tonight so far in this game vs Orl. Kings down by 2 but they are a horrible 1st half team and usually play better in the 2nd when at home. we'll see what happens.

Gonna see if I can hop on a 2nd half bet for SAC if it is reasonable.

[Sport_Fish]

Well hopefully this is one of those instances (Similiar to Miami @ Atlanta) where when a key player is out, each member of the team steps up and gives it their all.

[Speedy88]

Sac +3.5 2h to open, now it is up to Sac +4. Ima jump on it, I'm going to hate myself if Orlando wins by 7.

Also see Dwight has 3 fouls, hopefully they can get him to pick up one or two more early to have him sit on bench.
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[Sport_Fish]

SAC still in this game...unless we see a Kings Collapse here, the +7 should be looking good.

[sthrncross]

Magic are horrible, shoulda put my money on God(Tebow)

[Sport_Fish]

Typical Kings Collapse...this is the risk of betting on idiotic teams like this. No sense of finishing a game.

[Yezzir]

Thank God for that! Snuck that +7.5 spread through the backdoor! My heart hurts.

[Sport_Fish]

Had +7....God, never been happier with a push than this. A push here is even better than a 'fluke win'...fkn Sac Kings b/s team. Orlando played pretty bad, and Howard was a non-factor and they lose by 7.

[Speedy88]

Sac +3.5 2h to open, now it is up to Sac +4. Ima jump on it, I'm going to hate myself if Orlando wins by 7.

Also see Dwight has 3 fouls, hopefully they can get him to pick up one or two more early to have him sit on bench.
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It's just one of those days I guess....

Well at least OKC is shaping up as a winner, and hopefully LAL -7 holds up as well.