Vreston's European Basketball Thread 2011-2012

[Vreston]

Unfortunately I couldn't come online for Friday's Euroleague games, but today I have something.

Spain ACB

UCAM Murcia - CAI Zaragoza
Pick: CAI Zaragoza +4.5 @ 1.90 - Loss (76-62)

Murcia is in 16th place in the league (out of 18) and is fighting to stay in the league. I haven't seen anything special about this team. That's probably one of the reasons they are in this position. They have problems on offense with lots of "dead" minutes. They try to put more pressure on defense though. They have the third worst offense in the league. On the other hand, Zaragoza has kept the scores really close with much better teams such as Barcelona (they lost by 1 point), Caja Laboral, Lagun Aro etc. They also want a spot in the play offs so they should be motivated to cash in this year's effort.


Barcelona - Valencia
Pick: Valencia +10.5 @ 1.90 - Won (76-72)

Barcelona is the the favorite of course. They have not been that convincing lately though especially in Spain. Barcelona will be in Constantinople for the Euroleague Final 4 after winning the ticket earlier this week. They seem to be having problems with offensive consistency during their games. They have a very good defense which may well be one of the best in Europe. They are not playing the same basketball as last year that's for sure though. They haven't been winning games with big differences like they used to either. Those who have taken Barcelona ATS this year have gotten burned quite often (me included...).
Valencia, on the other hand, has been a team on the rise. They've gotten better with their new coach. They want to make up for lost points. They have a good team with good players and I'm betting they will start to roll. They also advanced to the Final 4 (of the Eurocup though).
I'm going to take Valencia plus the points today and hope that Barcelona doesn't suddenly wake up and roll over Valencia.

I don't know what the F is going on with these lowly teams suddenly rising from the dead and spoiling my bets! Zaragoza has been more than good to me this year and I honestly thought they would take advantage of this game to get closer to a playoff spot.

Barcelona is starting to look more and more like the Lakers! They're winning but not covering more often than not. I'm glad I faded them (and the Lakers) today. They had a mid week game for the Euroleague and advanced to the final 4. Why wouldn't they rest players or not go all out? They have to be ready and in good shape for the Final 4 in May.

[alamo]

Unlucky buddy. Small card today you liking anything ?

[Vreston]

Unlucky buddy. Small card today you liking anything ?

Not much of anything going on today so I'm not going to make any plays. BOL to you though whatever you play!

[Vreston]

I won't be around tomorrow (at least early) so I decided to post this play from tonight.

Spain ACB
Joventut - CAI Zaragoza
Pick: Zaragoza +6 @ 1.90

I love Zaragoza when they're catching points this year. Especially when it's against a team that's not all that great in the first place.
Zaragoza is a team that has been a pleasant surprise in Spain this year. They should have a lot of motivation since they're just one point behind a playoff position. Joventut, on the other hand, is not an intimidating team and it's 12th place position in the league is proof enough of that.
I also see a line difference between books. Bet365 has Zaragoza +6 whereas William Hill has them +4.5 and bwin has them at +5.5.
I will stick with my regular book (bet365).

If I have any time to do more research, I might put something else up. I will have a lot to do tomorrow.

[alamo]

like the zaragoza play. GL with that !

[Vreston]

like the zaragoza play. GL with that !

I really liked that play. They didn't show up.

[Vreston]

I won't be around tomorrow (at least early) so I decided to post this play from tonight.

Spain ACB
Joventut - CAI Zaragoza
Pick: Zaragoza +6 @ 1.90 - Loss (85-63)

I love Zaragoza when they're catching points this year. Especially when it's against a team that's not all that great in the first place.
Zaragoza is a team that has been a pleasant surprise in Spain this year. They should have a lot of motivation since they're just one point behind a playoff position. Joventut, on the other hand, is not an intimidating team and it's 12th place position in the league is proof enough of that.
I also see a line difference between books. Bet365 has Zaragoza +6 whereas William Hill has them +4.5 and bwin has them at +5.5.
I will stick with my regular book (bet365).

If I have any time to do more research, I might put something else up. I will have a lot to do tomorrow.

I'm really disappointed. I really liked this play from the moment I saw it, but as you all know things don't always go the way we've planned in sports betting.

[Vreston]

Today the Semi-Final Games start for the A1 league in Greece.

My pick for today is:

Olympiakos - Panionios
Pick: Panionios +23.5 @ 1.90

In this years matchups between the two teams the scores were:
Olympiakos with 2 wins and scores of 73-64 (9 points) and 80-69 (11 points).

This is the first semi-final game in a best of 3 series. The first 2 games will be played in Pireas at the "Stadium of Peace and Friendship" which is Olympiakos' home court. Olympiakos is in good condition and made easy business of PAOK in the previous round. Panionios is a team that has given Olympiakos some trouble this year. Panionios eliminated their opponent in the previous round by coming back from a 14 point deficit! They've already had a successful season and they pretty much know that they won't advance to the next round. They don't want to get blown out of course and have a talented team.
Also Olympiakos has their minds on the Final 4 of the Euroleague which will be coming up in just a few weeks so they shouldn't want to overdo themselves and risk injuries, fatigue and the rest. Which is another reason I'm backing Panionios + the points. Panionios does have some injuries though so I'll be taking it light.

[Vreston]

Today the Semi-Final Games start for the A1 league in Greece.

My pick for today is:

Olympiakos - Panionios
Pick: Panionios +23.5 @ 1.90 - Won (83-67)

In this years matchups between the two teams the scores were:
Olympiakos with 2 wins and scores of 73-64 (9 points) and 80-69 (11 points).

This is the first semi-final game in a best of 3 series. The first 2 games will be played in Pireas at the "Stadium of Peace and Friendship" which is Olympiakos' home court. Olympiakos is in good condition and made easy business of PAOK in the previous round. Panionios is a team that has given Olympiakos some trouble this year. Panionios eliminated their opponent in the previous round by coming back from a 14 point deficit! They've already had a successful season and they pretty much know that they won't advance to the next round. They don't want to get blown out of course and have a talented team.
Also Olympiakos has their minds on the Final 4 of the Euroleague which will be coming up in just a few weeks so they shouldn't want to overdo themselves and risk injuries, fatigue and the rest. Which is another reason I'm backing Panionios + the points. Panionios does have some injuries though so I'll be taking it light.

It turns out that this was a solid bet. Panionios was only down by 4 at half time. Even though they haven't been able to beat Olympiakos, they have been a tough opponent.

[Vreston]

Spain ACB

CB Valladolid - Obradoiro CAB
Pick: Obradoiro -1.5 @ 1.90

Valladolid is finished. They have no hope of being saved and they will be dropping to the B league. I don't know how much they will want to play. They are a team that had serious problems offensively. Obradoiro was almost sure to be saved, but got into trouble by losing to Estudiantes who are right on their tails. They are a team that also has problems scoring. Against Estudiantes the difference reached 25 points at some point.
Even though they came up to the ACB this year, they are a decent team and are pretty tough on defense. They have a very strong incentive here. If they win, they will have taken a very big step in staying in the league and avoid relegation.


Caja Laboral - Joventut
Pick: Caja Laboral -10 @ 1.90 (This one at William Hill since bet365 has it at -10.5)

Caja Laboral put up a fight Thursday against Barcelona in Barcelona. They have the second best defense in Spain and it's strange they haven't started rolling offensively.
Joventut is without goals now. They have had a mediocre year with a lot of ups and downs and I don't know what kind of playing mood they will be in now. Caja could easily cover if they decide to step on the gas.

[Vreston]

Spain ACB

CB Valladolid - Obradoiro CAB
Pick: Obradoiro -1.5 @ 1.90 - Loss (81-75)

Valladolid is finished. They have no hope of being saved and they will be dropping to the B league. I don't know how much they will want to play. They are a team that had serious problems offensively. Obradoiro was almost sure to be saved, but got into trouble by losing to Estudiantes who are right on their tails. They are a team that also has problems scoring. Against Estudiantes the difference reached 25 points at some point.
Even though they came up to the ACB this year, they are a decent team and are pretty tough on defense. They have a very strong incentive here. If they win, they will have taken a very big step in staying in the league and avoid relegation.


Caja Laboral - Joventut
Pick: Caja Laboral -10 @ 1.90 - Loss (66-68) (This one at William Hill since bet365 has it at -10.5)

Caja Laboral put up a fight Thursday against Barcelona in Barcelona. They have the second best defense in Spain and it's strange they haven't started rolling offensively.
Joventut is without goals now. They have had a mediocre year with a lot of ups and downs and I don't know what kind of playing mood they will be in now. Caja could easily cover if they decide to step on the gas.

Terrible day going 0-2.
I just hate it when teams with absolutely no reason to play go out and beat teams with all the incentive in the world to get a win. Obradoiro committed suicide today in my opinion. At least they were lucky that Estudiantes lost.
Then you have Caja losing outright to a team that is completely indifferent.
I guess that's just they way things are sometimes.

[Vreston]

Euroleague Final 4

CSSK Moscow - Panathianikos Pick
Panathinaikos +6 @ 1.90

Olympiakos - Barcelona
Pick: Olympiakos +7.5 @ 1.90

No time for a write up because I'm in a hurry. Lines have been moving up and down a bit too.

BOL!

[Vreston]

Euroleague Final 4

CSSK Moscow - Panathianikos Pick
Panathinaikos +6 @ 1.90 - Won (66-64)

Olympiakos - Barcelona
Pick: Olympiakos +7.5 @ 1.90 - Won (68-64)

No time for a write up because I'm in a hurry. Lines have been moving up and down a bit too.

BOL!

Both were really good games. Both Greek teams almost advanced to the final. Reigning European Champions Panathinaikos lost at the end only Olympiakos will represent a Greek team and they will play against favorites CSSK Moscow. It's interesting to note that Barcelona has been eliminated two years in a row by Greek teams. Last year it was Panathinaikos and this year Olympiakos.
Both games went way under as well.

[Vreston]

Spanish ACB Quarterfinals Game 1

Real Madrid - Cajasol (Seville)
Pick 1: Cajasol +12 @ 1.90

Pick 2: Under 154.5 @ 1.90


This is the firest game of the series for these teams. Real is the big favorite in this series, but is not that convincing with "dead" minutes during their games. They are an offensive team that looks to set the pace.
Cajasol just barely missed being in the top 4. They have an experienced team and they play good defense. They have been pretty good in away games and they also have their share of scoreless minutes.
Real is the favorite, but I think 12 points is a good cushion here. Also I'll take my chances with the under only because Cajasol is playing.

[Vreston]

Spanish ACB Quarterfinals Game 1

Real Madrid - Cajasol (Seville)
Pick 1: Cajasol +12 @ 1.90 - Loss (82-68)

Pick 2: Under 154.5 @ 1.90 - Won (82-68)


This is the firest game of the series for these teams. Real is the big favorite in this series, but is not that convincing with "dead" minutes during their games. They are an offensive team that looks to set the pace.
Cajasol just barely missed being in the top 4. They have an experienced team and they play good defense. They have been pretty good in away games and they also have their share of scoreless minutes.
Real is the favorite, but I think 12 points is a good cushion here. Also I'll take my chances with the under only because Cajasol is playing.

Unfortunately I lost the bet on the spread by a basket. I would've settled for a push