LTA's NBA Plays

[absolutkaos]

great call on the Thunder last night LTA. nice to have some variance on our side! BOL today!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 5/21/2012

Play #1

76'ers/Celtics under (174) 4x (Locked)

Pinny is juicing the under at -110 which means that this one may be dropping soon, so I will take another shot at 174. Throughout the season, Philly and Boston were two of the worst teams in drawing fouls (Philly was dead last in the league). However, in the last game which we lost on the under by 1 point, these teams combined for 55 free throw attempts, 36 of which were made by Philly who are extremely unlikely to get so many foul shots two games in a row considering how bad they are drawing fouls. Looking back at that game, that was one of the main reasons the under did not cash. I would be shocked to see 55 free throw attempts in this game. In the other games, these two teams had 50, 30 and 39 combined three throw attempts. During the regular season, these teams combined for 43, 31 and 33 free throw attempts. As long as we don't see 55 free throw attempts again, this play should cash. I have an under lean on this series with my model consistently putting this in the 171 range. With added intensity of each playoff game and knowing that when these teams go cold they go very cold, I am rolling with the under for 4x. Good luck.

[ren2_laurence]

You don't have plays for tomorrow, LTA?

[Love The Action]

You don't have plays for tomorrow, LTA?

Big under play is tomorrow.

[ren2_laurence]

Big under play is tomorrow.

I mean, on Mia-Ind, Sas-LAC game! haha!

[absolutkaos]

I mean, on Mia-Ind, Sas-LAC game! haha!

MIA/IND & SAS/LAC game 4s are today friend.

[ren2_laurence]

MIA/IND & SAS/LAC game 4s are today friend.

Sorry, different time zones!

[Redscot]

LTA, if you are going to sit out today's games, I would appreciate if you shared any leans you may have, however slight they may be. Thanks bro, and congrats on the big hit last night

[Les_Nuts]

I can get the Heat at a PK which is nice value, you got any leans for tonight LTA?

[BeardedTaco]

I can get the Heat at a PK which is nice value, you got any leans for tonight LTA?

These posts always puzzle me. It doesnt matter if the best handicapper in the world tells u to bet indy +1.5, if you can have heat at pick'em at this time of the day you play it.

[Les_Nuts]

These posts always puzzle me. It doesnt matter if the best handicapper in the world tells u to bet indy +1.5, if you can have heat at pick'em at this time of the day you play it.

I already have 2 units on it, it was a no brainer. Just curious if LTA likes anything in the Heat game

[slikec]

Gl with under

[Love The Action]

LTA, if you are going to sit out today's games, I would appreciate if you shared any leans you may have, however slight they may be. Thanks bro, and congrats on the big hit last night

Not sure yet, but Heat and over are the way I am leaning. The over probably has the most "value" if you include season long stats. Playoffs are a whole different world though.

[Love The Action]

These posts always puzzle me. It doesnt matter if the best handicapper in the world tells u to bet indy +1.5, if you can have heat at pick'em at this time of the day you play it.

[Love The Action]

I can get the Heat at a PK which is nice value, you got any leans for tonight LTA?

Through a local? That's good stuff. Does he often hang such off-market numbers?

[unitedlad]

Through a local? That's good stuff. Does he often hang such off-market numbers?

Nah, here in the UK, when the point spread is giving 2 or less points, sometimes a bookie offers a pickem with the favourite. On it for 2 units.

Edit: the odd thing is, is that the same book is offering the Heat -1.5 at the same price.

[Love The Action]

Nah, here in the UK, when the point spread is giving 2 or less points, sometimes a bookie offers a pickem with the favourite. On it for 2 units.

Yeah, but I don't think Les Nuts wagers in the UK. I thought he was from the states.... Good luck bud.

[Les_Nuts]

Through a local? That's good stuff. Does he often hang such off-market numbers?

Through a UK book. They are offering Heat -1.5 at evs and a PK at -110, snapped it up as soon as I saw it as the rest of the market is at -125. Another one is offering Red Sox at +138, an easy play as you can beat the closer automatically by a good 15cents

[Les_Nuts]

Yeah, but I don't think Les Nuts wagers in the UK. I thought he was from the states.... Good luck bud.

Moved to UK a few years ago, so use ML odds but UK books are easy to use. Still have 5dimes and pinny accounts though, gives me a nice choice

[unitedlad]

Yeah, but I don't think Les Nuts wagers in the UK. I thought he was from the states.... Good luck bud.

Ahh, just assumed he was from the UK because we sometimes share picks on English soccer.

[unitedlad]

Moved to UK a few years ago, so use ML odds but UK books are easy to use. Still have 5dimes and pinny accounts though

Same. Enables for great window-shopping on the best prices.

[Mocknroll]

Edit: the odd thing is, is that the same book is offering the Heat -1.5 at the same price.

My book does a similar thing.
They sometimes offer the '2-way' handicap at the same price that they offer '3-way' handicaps.

Not sure if it's just the Aus books that do the 3-way, but the 3-way also includes the push.

So if you take Heat in the 2-way handicap at -2 and they win by 2 then you get the push.
If you take Heat -2 in the 3-way handicap and they win by 2 then the push market applies and your bet loses.

I don't get why they offer it at the same price when you risk losing a push. They normally throw the push option in 3-way for +1000.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 5/21/2012

Play #1

76'ers/Celtics under (174) 4x (Locked)

Pinny is juicing the under at -110 which means that this one may be dropping soon, so I will take another shot at 174. Throughout the season, Philly and Boston were two of the worst teams in drawing fouls (Philly was dead last in the league). However, in the last game which we lost on the under by 1 point, these teams combined for 55 free throw attempts, 36 of which were made by Philly who are extremely unlikely to get so many foul shots two games in a row considering how bad they are drawing fouls. Looking back at that game, that was one of the main reasons the under did not cash. I would be shocked to see 55 free throw attempts in this game. In the other games, these two teams had 50, 30 and 39 combined three throw attempts. During the regular season, these teams combined for 43, 31 and 33 free throw attempts. As long as we don't see 55 free throw attempts again, this play should cash. I have an under lean on this series with my model consistently putting this in the 171 range. With added intensity of each playoff game and knowing that when these teams go cold they go very cold, I am rolling with the under for 4x. Good luck.

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 5/20/2012

Play #1

Heat/Pacers over (178) 1x (Locked)

I should have pulled the trigger at 177, but I got greedy and was hoping it hit 176.5 and got burned. Nevertheless, I think we are getting around 7-8 points of value where you can put this game if you include regular season stats (not that it should be set that high, but that is what the stats say). Now, the playoffs are obviously a different animal but in the first game this was set at 187 and in the second game 186 and in the third game it opened at 182 and closed at 180. Now we are getting 178. First, I just can't imagine the Heat -- and especially Wade -- shooting so poorly three games in a row, especially from the 3pt land. Second, to me it's obvious they need to push the pace of this game and attack. They have played back on their heels in the last two games and really need to push the pace, play in transition and drive to the hoop. I expect Spo to make those adjustments or he should be fired. That is how they played earlier in the season when they were buzzsawing teams and without Bosh, I think they need to go back to that style of fast play. If both teams play just an average game offensively this one should go over. The refs are not particularly helpful to this game, but refs generally mean more to the under than the over anyway since you are always going to get at least 30 foul shots no matter who has the whistle. In this game, if we get 40 which is what these refs average, we should be ok. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Moved to UK a few years ago, so use ML odds but UK books are easy to use. Still have 5dimes and pinny accounts though, gives me a nice choice

[JM92]

On the over as well chasing the Heat for 2 units. GL everyone, not been besides us lately.

[dmitean]

I'm also on the Over in Indiana. I feel that both teams are capable of scoring 90+ points one against the other on any given night.
BOL LTA!!!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 5/21/2012

Play #1

76'ers/Celtics under (174) 4x (Locked)

Pinny is juicing the under at -110 which means that this one may be dropping soon, so I will take another shot at 174. Throughout the season, Philly and Boston were two of the worst teams in drawing fouls (Philly was dead last in the league). However, in the last game which we lost on the under by 1 point, these teams combined for 55 free throw attempts, 36 of which were made by Philly who are extremely unlikely to get so many foul shots two games in a row considering how bad they are drawing fouls. Looking back at that game, that was one of the main reasons the under did not cash. I would be shocked to see 55 free throw attempts in this game. In the other games, these two teams had 50, 30 and 39 combined three throw attempts. During the regular season, these teams combined for 43, 31 and 33 free throw attempts. As long as we don't see 55 free throw attempts again, this play should cash. I have an under lean on this series with my model consistently putting this in the 171 range. With added intensity of each playoff game and knowing that when these teams go cold they go very cold, I am rolling with the under for 4x. Good luck.

NBA 2011-2012 Playoffs 5/20/2012

Play #1

Heat/Pacers over (178) 1x (Locked)

I should have pulled the trigger at 177, but I got greedy and was hoping it hit 176.5 and got burned. Nevertheless, I think we are getting around 7-8 points of value where you can put this game if you include regular season stats (not that it should be set that high, but that is what the stats say). Now, the playoffs are obviously a different animal but in the first game this was set at 187 and in the second game 186 and in the third game it opened at 182 and closed at 180. Now we are getting 178. First, I just can't imagine the Heat -- and especially Wade -- shooting so poorly three games in a row, especially from the 3pt land. Second, to me it's obvious they need to push the pace of this game and attack. They have played back on their heels in the last two games and really need to push the pace, play in transition and drive to the hoop. I expect Spo to make those adjustments or he should be fired. That is how they played earlier in the season when they were buzzsawing teams and without Bosh, I think they need to go back to that style of fast play. If both teams play just an average game offensively this one should go over. The refs are not particularly helpful to this game, but refs generally mean more to the under than the over anyway since you are always going to get at least 30 foul shots no matter who has the whistle. In this game, if we get 40 which is what these refs average, we should be ok. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Heat ML (-125) 1x (Locked)

I thought long and hard about this and whether to play it and if so, whether to go big. I am already on this game on the over for 1x and I will play the Heat for 1x in this must win situation. This is a correlated play because as I mentioned in my earlier writeup, the Heat need to play fast in transition and push the pace. I think they do that which leads to a Heat win in a game that goes over. I am rolling with the Heat on the ML for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Freekin Heat are playing in slow motion to start this game with no energy. Let's go!

[Love The Action]

Heat are going to bury me on both plays. Wow. How pathetic has this team become.

[Vinnie Paz]

Miserable half court O for the Heat my goodness

[meader99]

Heat are going to bury me on both plays. Wow. How pathetic has this team become.

Missing some easy shots, BUT we are getting an up and down pace here. I think the over will still cash.

[Les_Nuts]

We need to get Larry Bird on the floor for the Heat. Spolestra, make it happen!

[Catchn_Picks]

Heat came alive in second Q...rolling now...great half...let's bring it home.

[Vinnie Paz]

Over looks pretty good, but just really dont see miami pulling this one out. Never know though, good luck to all.

Lta you do wnba too, brother?

[Trivial]

Missed both heat plays. Got -3.5 for 2H and over 91 for 2H. Good luck to all of us