LTA's NBA Plays

**DroseB4Hoes** · 03-13-12, 01:49 PM

Kevin Martin OUT for Houston, Thunder -11?

**dmitean** · 03-13-12, 03:18 PM

Good luck LTA, but though I won't be taking the Under, I think that the total in Sacramento is higher by 5 - 6 points from a number I would take for an Over.
Kings key number for me is 100 points. I won't take an Over in Kings game, if Kings TT is Over 100 points.
I have seen about 20 Kings games this season and they play really high pace first half, but have really low scores in second halves and even if they score 60 points in first half, I'm still worried if I have TT Over of 100 points for them. Kings get 104.5 (or 104) points here and GSW gets 102 points (102.5) and that's a lot here. Last game in Sacramento both teams scored 102 points in regulation. Both teams score less than 100 points as average and allow around 100 points. I can see 108 - 102 result here, but also 103 - 99 just as easily.
I will watch the game probably and will wait to see perhaps 198 - 199 total live and take the Over maybe then.
Hope you nail both, but I consider Magic as a possible play and would stay away from the total in Kings.

**M.W.** · 03-13-12, 04:43 PM

GS total down to 205.5 -- is there injury news?

**Kurtz** · 03-13-12, 04:43 PM

Pinny at 205.5 now for GS game.

**doogtonmai** · 03-13-12, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by Kurtz

Pinny at 205.5 now for GS game.

K Thanks! I would still recommend the over.

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-13-12, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by Kurtz

Pinny at 205.5 now for GS game.

Damn, I wish I waited...but it is rare that a line goes against LTA throughout the day. This is an unusual omen. I would think the steam would favor the over in a GSW/SAC game. No turning back...let's go with the books who usually know more than the players.

**doogtonmai** · 03-13-12, 05:12 PM

Does anyone want to debate whether two-three point swings on an low number vs a high number has the same value? I know some will say points are points. However, I would have to argue that a two point swing in a high total game won't make much difference considering the flow in that range. For example, like tonight's game, if it reaches the 200s the range will be extreme like volatility because of the flow of the game. A two point differential with a low total is more important to consider. Similarly to a 10% increase on a $175.00 stock value is $17.50 dollars, but the same percentage increase at $206 is $20.60. So which stock has more perceived value?

**showtiime** · 03-13-12, 05:29 PM

Seems like rest of the board is on orlando. I was leaning heat, will most likely play them.

**JM92** · 03-13-12, 05:35 PM

LTA, do you like the Lakers? I'm probably going to make 'em my third play of the day. Meanwhile added an extra-unit on Miami at - 4. I had played - 3 @ -110 last night hoping I'd wake up to see you had bet on them as well... problem was the line by then was 4.5 and no value in my mind. At - 4, I will gladly add an extra unit.

**Notorious_Donk** · 03-13-12, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by DroseB4Hoes

Kevin Martin OUT for Houston, Thunder -11?

He's out for sure?

**redbull** · 03-13-12, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by Notorious_Donk

He's out for sure?

last two games , k martin limited time.
and i like kings over.

**JM92** · 03-13-12, 06:19 PM

He's out almost for sure... but Lowry is also out! This is news for me and I think for most, but this really explains the number set out by the books which was just too high to be fair. Can't believe anyone played that specially having in mind the season series is going to its fourth game with a 95-96 game, a 98-95 and one solo double digit 94-109 in favor of the Thunder, where, guess what, Lowry did not play.

**t-wizzle** · 03-13-12, 06:36 PM

Where did you get miami -3 -120?

**BallinWifNoSox** · 03-13-12, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

Where did you get miami -3 -120?

The first sentence in the write up from LTA "I don't think there's any way this one gets to 3 on it's own, so I'm buying the hook here." He bought half a point

**t-wizzle** · 03-13-12, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by BallinWifNoSox

The first sentence in the write up from LTA "I don't think there's any way this one gets to 3 on it's own, so I'm buying the hook here." He bought half a point

No shit, i'm asking where he got it.

**G-manFan** · 03-13-12, 06:48 PM

Last night/early morning (1-4am) it was 3.5 on most books( SBG, BOOKMAKER AND 5dimes) this morning it was already up to 4 to 4.5 4.5

**Love The Action** · 03-13-12, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

Where did you get miami -3 -120?

What's up buddy....haven't seen you around these parts in awhile. Probably a good thing for me

I posted my play last night when the whole market was at -3.5. Check back a few pages to overnight post #7365.

I know you have this belief that I secretly desire to go tout regardless of the fact that everything I have done on here says otherwise. However, if you want to see a real tout-in-waiting, check out this guy. http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...1-9-units.html From what I've read, he has all the characteristics of a tout wannabe (i.e. posts on multiple forums, has monitors checking his record, only does daily threads, has a twitter etc.). That should provide you with some fun.

Good luck on your plays. Were you on the Heat?

**mikea33** · 03-13-12, 07:03 PM

LTA love u buddy

**eastern2** · 03-13-12, 07:10 PM

thanks for picks lta mia looking good so far

**Love The Action** · 03-13-12, 07:10 PM

Might have a last minute play on the Lakers/Memphis under, but this one is a tough decision.

Edit: No play.

There are a lot of factors that point to the under here, but they played the last game in this matchup very fast and Memphis shot extremely bad. Even without Gay, I think they will play better tonight. Plus, LAL's offense has improved. I figured it was better to sit this one out. Hope I don't regret it.

**imaricer86** · 03-13-12, 07:16 PM

Lta how to u feel about dal/wiz over?

**t-wizzle** · 03-13-12, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

What's up buddy....haven't seen you around these parts in awhile. Probably a good thing for me

I posted my play last night when the whole market was at -3.5. Check back a few pages to overnight post #7365.

I know you have this belief that I secretly desire to go tout regardless of the fact that everything I have done on here says otherwise. However, if you want to see a real tout-in-waiting, check out this guy. http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...1-9-units.html From what I've read, he has all the characteristics of a tout wannabe (i.e. posts on multiple forums, has monitors checking his record, only does daily threads, has a twitter etc.). That should provide you with some fun.

Good luck on your plays. Were you on the Heat?

That guy is brutal. I was just curious if it was a local play or an online book.

I liked heat too but wasn't able to make a play before tip. I think they cover 2H though, orlando won't get back into this game.

Tomorrow night is a better nba card.

**mikea33** · 03-13-12, 07:21 PM

LTA
Check in at halftime with the memphis lakers game! Can check
Pace, FG % and mabye make a play

**mikea33** · 03-13-12, 07:24 PM

LTA
I love how his thread is just like yours, same set up same
Vocab etc.
Oh ya, lol....love how his avatar isnt just remotely skmilar, but like exact same.

**Love The Action** · 03-13-12, 07:30 PM

I am playing Dallas at -12 (-120). Official post to come...

**dlunc3** · 03-13-12, 07:38 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

Where did you get miami -3 -120?

All three of my books had it last night... I took it at 1am this morning with sportsbetting.ag at -3 -120

**Love The Action** · 03-13-12, 07:39 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/13/2012

Play #1

Heat (-3)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I don't think there's any way this one gets to 3 on it's own, so I'm buying the hook here. As we have discussed ad nauseum, it's not a +ev strategy long-term, but can be profitable on occasion. Let's not forget a few weeks ago when we decided against buying the hook and lost on the Sixers by that half point. In games like this, lines are sharp and I will pay the insurance. In this game, I have Miami set at -4.5 but think they cover this one rather easily. One of the biggest reasons I like Miami in this game is the loss of Richardson for the Magic. Over the last couple of seasons, he has been pivotal to the Magic in this series as they have won the games he played well in, while they have lost the games he either struggled or sat out. In this game, Richardson will sit and I think that really hurts the Magic because it takes some much needed athleticism off the floor and puts in defensive liabilities such as Redick. Plus, Miami is coming in fully rested and ready to roll off two days off while Orland is coming in off one day of rest that was filled with trade rumor talk. At this stage, these rumors surrounding Howard cannot be having a positive effect on him or his team. I don't necessarily think this is a big factor for tomorrow because the Magic should get "up" for this game, but if these rumors distract just a little from the Magic's preparation for this game then we have the edge. Miami has a clear edge in almost every statistical category on offense and defense, except for three point offense, defensive rebounds and points in the paint. However, Miami is not too far in those categories anyway. As long as Miami is motivated for this game, they should cover the 3 points. Last time these teams played in Orlando over a month ago, I backed the Magic as 3.5 point dogs and cashed with an outright win. In this case, I think Miami wins by 5 or more. I have Miami set at -4.5, giving us 1.5 points of variance to the line we bought. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Heat for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Warriors/Kings over (206) 1x (Locked)

I'm jumping on this one now as I see it going up by tomorrow morning to 207 or more. I have this game set at 209.5 giving us over 3 points of value. Both teams are top 10 in PACE and bottom 10 in DEFF and most other controlling defensive categories. I just don't see what motivation either team has to play defense in this game. In addition, for those wondering, yes I know that Stephen Curry might sit, but it really doesn't matter to me. With Thomas seeming at the controls for Sacramento and their main guys healthy with Thornton, Evans and Cousins, I see the scoreboard lighting up with guys looking to pad their offensive stats. Sacramento is top 5 in points in the paint and fast-break points, while GSW is top ten in OEFF and EFG%. The common denominator is that both defenses are weak against both opposing offensive strengths. As I mentioned above, I have this one set at 209.5 giving us over 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Mavericks (-12)(-120) 1x (Locked)

It's real amateurish to buy the hook this much, but ever since that Philly half-point loss I am not shy about doing it. This is now the 9th play of the season at -120 odds and it's still a plus money strategy to date after having gone 4-3-1 so far with tonight's games pending . Let's hope it holds up tonight. Along with the Memphis/Lakers under, this was a very highly rated lean. I think it's worthy of a play as Dallas is ready to blow someone out after their recent losing, plus they dominate Washington on defense. They are getting healthy tonight with Haywood back and are coming off 2 days rest, while Washington is on a b2b and 3 in 4. Washington is 1-6 ATS as a dog of this size and Dallas is 2-0. Washington is 3-5 on b2b and Dallas is 2-0 on 2 days rest. I don't put much stock in trends like that, but they are useful to know how teams respond situationally and I think those trends hold true tonight. I have Dallas set at -14 giving us two points of variance here after buying the hook. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Mavs for 1x. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 03-13-12, 07:42 PM

And before anyone complains, I posted that Dallas play in post #7410 with 15 minutes left to make a wager. And, it still has not tipped off as I type. Sorry, but this was a last-minute decision to turn a lean into a play. It happens....

**mikea33** · 03-13-12, 07:42 PM

LTA
Big trade im the nba
No Monta tonight, im ansy.

**Love The Action** · 03-13-12, 07:43 PM

Pissed I didn't play Indy....

**Love The Action** · 03-13-12, 07:44 PM

Originally posted by mikea33

LTA
Big trade im the nba
No Monta tonight, im ansy.

Uh oh, really? I didn't hear about it. Link?

**mikea33** · 03-13-12, 07:44 PM

I still dont understand
How ppl could complain, when you go out of yyour to write ups and pick winners....well thanks !

**absolutkaos** · 03-13-12, 07:44 PM

damn...bet365 not offering live action on Dallas....ah well

...

GL tonight everyone...thanks LTA

**mikea33** · 03-13-12, 07:45 PM

Nba.com..... Line hasnt budged on my locals sight

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-13-12, 07:48 PM

Missed it....will try at the half. BOL

You're the best LTA, but buying a hook from 12.5 to 12 is a tough way to gain +ev. However I sincerely hope you find the value you seek.