LTA's NBA Plays

**JM92** · 03-04-12, 09:30 AM

I had a feeling that either that or a Heat -3.0 was coming! Lets get that money rollin

**Les_Nuts** · 03-04-12, 09:31 AM

On Heat -2.5 and this

**eastern2** · 03-04-12, 09:33 AM

Love this pick LTA - locked it in @ my book @ under 193.5

**Love The Action** · 03-04-12, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/4/2012

Play #1

Heat/Lakers under (193) 2x (Locked)

The only way the Lakers win is with defense and I expect a close game. In order to keep it close, the Lakers must limit their turnovers and slow the pace down in order to limit the Heat's deadly transition game. Thankfully, with Bynum in the middle, the Lakers have one of the weapons which gives the Heat serious problems because of their lack of depth in the frontcourt. Both defenses are top 10 in advanced stats across the board so I won't even go into it. On offense, Miami has a killer offense that can explode for 120 in any game, however, in this game I expect playoff-like intensity which leads to a slower pace in the 2h and especially the 4th quarter. One of the keys to this play is the refs and even though we don't have the best under crew in the world, I am satisfied with McCutchen, Roe and Adams to make this play. I have this game set at 189 giving us 2 full fg's of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Bulls/Sixers under (181) 2x (Locked)

I may add to the stake in this one and make it a 2.5x or my second 3x play of the season. I have this game set at 177, but I think this one is a true defensive battle which stays in the 160's. I have been targeting 181 as the number I want in this game so when I saw it I jumped on it. This may go up to 181.5 before dropping back down, but I'm not taking any chances. I expect a closer around 179 so I am content with 181. The previous game between these two teams saw Philly win in a blowout with a final score of 180. In this game, I expect a much better defensive effort from the Bulls. Philly and Chicago are ranked 1 and 2 in most defensive advanced stats, they limit shots at the rim and force offenses into low-percentage perimeter shots. This sets up perfectly for the under. In the first game, Philly won because they forced turnovers and pushed the pace in a transition-orientated game. In this game, I expect the Bulls to limit those mistakes and force a half-court game that Philly will be happy to play since that is their standard approach as well. With Collins and Thibs as the coaches, both guys stress defense and with the Bulls coming off the loss to Philly last month, I think Thibs stresses defense even more. The refs are not very favorable with Wood, Tiven and Brothers, but I think we see a very slow pace to this game which keeps this one under regardless of the whistles. The Bulls have a nice trend of bouncing back strong defensively against teams who beat them in a previous game keeping the rematch under the posted total and this matchup fits that trend perfectly. As stated above, I have this game set four points lower than the books at 177 which provides us solid value in this game. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

**Bbr** · 03-04-12, 09:41 AM

love that bulls under locked that play in as soon as i saw the line.

**absolutkaos** · 03-04-12, 09:42 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Play #2

Bulls/Sixers under (181) 2x (Locked)

I may add to the stake in this one and make it a 2.5x or my second 3x play of the season. I have this game set at 177, but I think this one is a true defensive battle which stays in the 160's. I have been targeting 181 as the number I want in this game so when I saw it I jumped on it. This may go up to 181.5 before dropping back down, but I'm not taking any chances. I expect a closer around 179 so I am content with 181. The previous game between these two teams saw Philly win in a blowout with a final score of 180. In this game, I expect a much better defensive effort from the Bulls. Philly and Chicago are ranked 1 and 2 in most advanced stats, they limit shots at the rim and force offenses into low-percentage perimeter shots. This sets up perfectly for the under. In the first game, Philly won because they forced turnovers and pushed the pace in a transition-orientated game. In this game, I expect the Bulls to limit those mistakes and force a half-court game that Philly will be happy to play since that is their standard approach as well. With Collins and Thibs as the coaches, both guys stress defense and with the Bulls coming off the loss to Philly last month, I think Thibs stresses defense even more. The refs are not very favorable with Wood, Tiven and Brothers, but I think we see a very slow pace to this game which keeps this one under regardless of the whistles. The Bulls have a nice trend of bouncing back strong defensively against teams who beat them in a previous game keeping the rematch under the posted total and this matchup fits that trend perfectly. As stated above, I have this game set four points lower than the books at 177 which provides us solid value in this game. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

TWO MULTI-UNIT PLAYS IN ONE DAY!?!?

What's your record on multi-unit plays this year LTA? Was it 7-1 at last count?

**JM92** · 03-04-12, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by Les_Nuts

On Heat -2.5 and this

What do you think about Bosh? Heard anything special? Damn lack of time today. Fixing a couple of things in my room and even cooked lunch for like the first time in my life lol. Now going to play some ball.

GL and thank you for the plays LTA (already had the bulls under, so its now 3 unit play for me!)

**bmansell33** · 03-04-12, 09:50 AM

What do u think of 180

**PS3** · 03-04-12, 09:50 AM

Hi LTA,
I really look up to you in terms of totals.
What do you think of Chi/Phi U 181 & Den/Sas O 206?
Your reply will be very much appreciated.

**Les_Nuts** · 03-04-12, 09:51 AM

I think Bosh will play, I'm not too bothered if he doesn't as I think the line is taking into account the uncertainty. If Bosh plays -2.5 which I got last night is great value because he is great matchup against the Lakers, either way I see the Heat winning by 5+. If Lakers cover then the under most likely hits which is good security
GL

**hey buddy** · 03-04-12, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by PS3

Hi LTA,
I really look up to you in terms of totals.
What do you think of Chi/Phi U 181 & Den/Sas O 206?
Your reply will be very much appreciated.

LTA has the Sixers/Bulls under posted above.

**PS3** · 03-04-12, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by hey buddy

LTA has the Sixers/Bulls under posted above.

Yeah man, sorry for that.
As I was typing the entry wasn't there yet. Haha.

Glad to see LTA on that play.

**absolutkaos** · 03-04-12, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by Les_Nuts

I think Bosh will play, I'm not too bothered if he doesn't as I think the line is taking into account the uncertainty. If Bosh plays -2.5 which I got last night is great value because he is great matchup against the Lakers, either way I see the Heat winning by 5+. If Lakers cover then the under most likely hits which is good security
GL

Wasn't it announced that Bosh supposed to miss two games due to a death in the family? No reason he shouldn't be back for this one. I'd be surprised if he wasn't out there for a marquee matchup like this one.

**Les_Nuts** · 03-04-12, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by absolutkaos

Wasn't it announced that Bosh supposed to miss two games due to a death in the family? No reason he shouldn't be back for this one. I'd be surprised if he wasn't out there for a marquee matchup like this one.

My reasoning exactly, it said two games and could return for Lakers, given the magnitude of the game I think he plays

**JM92** · 03-04-12, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by Les_Nuts

I think Bosh will play, I'm not too bothered if he doesn't as I think the line is taking into account the uncertainty. If Bosh plays -2.5 which I got last night is great value because he is great matchup against the Lakers, either way I see the Heat winning by 5+. If Lakers cover then the under most likely hits which is good security
GL

Hmm. I will be waiting. I think the Heat win no doubt. I was thinking of making a double unit play on the ML @ - 130 last night. Obviously a lot lower now. Still I like the Under even if Bosh plays and will be tailing LTA and probably that will be my only pick on the game for the day.

**Love The Action** · 03-04-12, 10:01 AM

My play on the Heat/Laker under assumes Bosh is playing. I don't think there's any way he does not play. Since his bereavement leave was approved, they only announced a 2 game leave of absence with this game targeted as the game in which he returns. Despite his current status as questionable, I would be shocked if he didn't play.

As far as the side, the value is clearly on the Lakers getting +3.5 at home. They were only getting 5.5 in Miami and now they are set at +3.5. With standard adjustments, this game should be about a PK or LAL getting +1 which illustrates the tax the books are placing on the Heat right now. Nevertheless, I think the under is the much stronger play. GL

**JM92** · 03-04-12, 10:10 AM

The Heat totally dominate the Lakers. And as I've stated, they still have only lost those two straight games on National tv. Still, the value for me was really on the ML and right now, its gone. Will look into it closer to the game, but I do agree this might be a really Under play here. Just hope Kobe doesn't decide to build a new house for someone instead of trying to actually win the game and misses 20 shots. If that happens we're screwed. But the talk of the last days on Espn about how he doesn't have a true rival bla bla bla suggests to me that he might not go to much with his ego tonight.

**Pross1** · 03-04-12, 11:24 AM

MIA/LAL total down to 191.5 on bookmaker.......damn that was fast

**Catchn_Picks** · 03-04-12, 11:29 AM

Damn..line crashing everywhere...191.5's abound...a few new 191's.

Lots of people agreeing with you LTA as do I.

Let's not make it a close game, OK?

**rjp322** · 03-04-12, 12:04 PM

LTA would you still play it at 191 or 191.5

**Trivial** · 03-04-12, 12:20 PM

Originally posted by rjp322

LTA would you still play it at 191 or 191.5

You need to make your own decisions. LTA says that he has the game set to 189.

"I have this game set at 189 giving us 2 full fg's of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck."

So you need to decide if there is enough remaining value left.

Personally - I would likely drop my wager to 1 unit instead of 2 units at the current total lines being offered, but that is just me.

GL.

**cnote24** · 03-04-12, 12:23 PM

Great Picks man, expect a defensive battle from the 76ers and Im hesitant to do a 3 team parlay and add in the heat -3

**absolutkaos** · 03-04-12, 12:27 PM

@Trivial: you said it faster than I could...I wouldn't think it would be a 2x play at <193.

GL to everyone today.

**Pross1** · 03-04-12, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 3/4/2012

Play #1

Heat/Lakers under (193) 2x (Locked)

The only way the Lakers win is with defense and I expect a close game. In order to keep it close, the Lakers must limit their turnovers and slow the pace down in order to limit the Heat's deadly transition game. Thankfully, with Bynum in the middle, the Lakers have one of the weapons which gives the Heat serious problems because of their lack of depth in the frontcourt. Both defenses are top 10 in advanced stats across the board so I won't even go into it. On offense, Miami has a killer offense that can explode for 120 in any game, however, in this game I expect playoff-like intensity which leads to a slower pace in the 2h and especially the 4th quarter. One of the keys to this play is the refs and even though we don't have the best under crew in the world, I am satisfied with McCutchen, Roe and Adams to make this play. I have this game set at 189 giving us 2 full fg's of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Got this at 193 as well thanks a lot LTA. GL on your CHI/PHI U bet too. Personally I'm on the Bulls -4. I'm a big Bulls fan ( I hear you are as well) so I've seen every minute they've played this season. Bulls -4 is a gift. Rose has already spoke out about how he wants to avenge the blow out loss they had in Philly a while back. Deng and Rip didn't play in that game so I hav the Bulls winning by 8 or 9. Deng and Iguadola will cancel each other out all game but Rose is gonna embarass Holiday. Noah has been way better since the last time they played as well.

GL!

**Trivial** · 03-04-12, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by absolutkaos

@Trivial: you said it faster than I could...I wouldn't think it would be a 2x play at <193.

GL to everyone today.

:-). GL

**swordsandtequila** · 03-04-12, 01:47 PM

Thanks LTA, appreciate the work you put into your picks. Good luck to all.

**Krazymojo** · 03-04-12, 01:52 PM

bosh not playing

**BubbleTeaJelly** · 03-04-12, 01:57 PM

**mcduggly** · 03-04-12, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by Krazymojo

bosh not playing

Where'd you see that?

**Pross1** · 03-04-12, 02:00 PM

Originally posted by mcduggly

Where'd you see that?

Chris Bosh (personal) did not join the Heat in time for Sunday's game.
Bosh attended his grandmother's funeral on Saturday. The team expects him to play Tuesday vs. the Nets. Mar 4 - 1:57 PM
Source: Ira Winderman on Twitter

**smarotta09** · 03-04-12, 02:05 PM

yea bosh confirmed out

**JM92** · 03-04-12, 02:07 PM

Thank God I didn't go on the Heat. And now when I saw it @ -2.5 I almost hit it big. but then Bosh confirmed out. Might add an extra unit to this under.

**SlickRick1382** · 03-04-12, 02:13 PM

Any thoughts on the Heat Team Total U97?

**SlickRick1382** · 03-04-12, 02:15 PM

Bosh is confirmed out and the line jumps up half a point? o_ON

nvm, looks like the adjusted it on the Lakers side

**NYSportsGuy210** · 03-04-12, 02:50 PM

Good luck on the UNDER play of 180.5 or 180 in the Sixers-Bulls game, as it stands but personally I like the OVER better though.

All three games played between these two last year went over and this year's game was only UNDER 180 because the Bulls faultered abnormally down the stretch.

OVER 180 or no play for me today on this game. Liking Miami Heat (-2.5) to cover at Los Angeles too. Under has some value here too like you say. Maybe some individual prop bets here as well on Lebron, Bynum, Kobe or Wade.