I know how I feel, I too am waited with baited breath.
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Game #2
Tonight we have the pleasure of reacquainting ourselves with Ken Mauer, the zebra with the slickest hairdo (need we say Pat Riley?). Kenny is a contrarian. In this case that means he favors the road team. The home team still cashes at a 47-37 SU tune, but home team bettors may have pulled some of their hairs out under his 37-46-1 ATS supervision.
His partner in crime tonight is Dan Crawford. Crawford is 63-36 SU home/away, but is not paying off home bettors either at 47-50 ATS. Celtics bettors get no help from Crawford, but KG and the boys don't mind him out there.
The home team tonight is represented by Bob Delaney, coming in at 51-23 SU home/away, and 37-33 ATS.
This could be close. Delaney should be able to neutralize Crawford ATS, but that leaves Mauer wide open for the slam dunk.
I'd give it to Mauer and the Lakers ATS, but they've turned from dogs to favorites... May have to pass on this one.Comment -
I can respect passing on this one, the play was Lakers pk'em when the assignments were first sent out.Comment -
Adding:
If the Lakers stay favored:
Mauer is 3-11 for home dogs of 4.5 pts or less.
Crawford is 6-11 for home dogs in that spread range.
Delaney's opposition is 4-2 for home dogs of 4.5 pts or less.
Delaney is going up against a combined 9-22 home/away record in this spread range.Comment -
Don't want to overanalyze simple things, but the breakdown is pretty interesting in this spread range (4.5 pts or lower):
Mauer is clearly a road ref in close games: 4-9 home favorites, and 3-11 home dogs.
Crawford backs the favorites in this range: 12-6 home favorites, and 6-11 home dogs!
Delaney is with the home team here: 9-6 home favorites, and 4-2 home dogs.
So the question is: Does Crawford know the Lakers are favored?
(Personally, I'm not willing to bet on that - if only because the Celtics were favored earlier on).Comment -
Cute. Yes, he does. Favorites should win more games than underdogs in the 1-4 range so if it is close that speaks well for the underdog.Comment -
That was Kenny Mauer with the quick introduction on the Celtics first possession...
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Nice move by Delaney. Kobe not happy with that one; has to sit with 2 fouls in 1Q.Comment -
1H story:
Boston 19 FT's
Lakers 2 FT's
Celtics up by 12 pts.Comment -
Thank you Dark Horse! You helped me to make money today. I interpreted your analysis as a big advantage for Boston and you helped me a ton. I can't thank you enough. Please keep up the good work.
BTW, please tell me where you find your information on refs, I really need to take this stuff into consideration from now on. Thank you a lot.
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Fearless: You can go to covers.com and find a lot of the ref stats.
G3:
Mark Wunderlich
46-26 SU
37-32 ATS
Joey Crawford
36-21 SU
32-22 ATS
Wait for it.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTT TTTTTTTT for it.
Bennett Salvatore:
52-25 SU
42-35 ATS
WOW! This is an all star team of homers, but the numbers don't tell the whole story. Dick Bavetta would have been a great choice too but Bennett Salvatore really is the right man for the job. Combined these three have put home teams 111-89 ATS. That is a p value just below the .05 threshold but I'm still EXCEEDINGLY confident that the series is already 2-1. The Celtics know this. The Lakers know this. The refs know this. Tomorrow is Kabuki theater.
Lakers.Comment -
Stephen A Smith is even onto it. Wow. Watch Sportscenter tonight.Comment -
SAS is an ESPN personality.Comment -
Donaghy is basically saying NBA tells refs which team it wants to win in the playoffs. Explosive! But little chance there will be any serious research into the allegations. Consider this famously missed call of Walton's foot (and deaf ears that missed Nash screaming for timeout). That's our friend Salvatore at his best! That's two refs looking straight at the foot and missing it. Not one ref. Two... <= ! You do the math...
Tonight Salvatore, who tried hard but fell short last time we came across him (Boston hit 'everything' in 4Q), is joined by Joey Crawford. Two home refs that are a combined 88-46 SU home/away. Make that 134-72 with Wunderlich added.
Coming off an embarrassing loss, Salvatore should be extra motivated. Lakers win. As good as gold.Comment -
You're on your game as usual.Donaghy is basically saying NBA tells refs which team it wants to win in the playoffs. Explosive! But little chance there will be any serious research into the allegations. Consider this famously missed call of Walton's foot (and deaf ears that missed Nash screaming for timeout). That's our friend Salvatore at his best! That's two refs looking straight at the foot and missing it. Not one ref. Two... <= ! You do the math...
Tonight Salvatore, who tried hard but fell short last time we came across him (Boston hit 'everything' in 4Q), is joined by Joey Crawford. Two home refs that are a combined 88-46 SU home/away. Make that 134-72 with Wunderlich added.
Coming off an embarrassing loss, Salvatore should be extra motivated. Lakers win. As good as gold.
Seriously, knowing the final result already will make this game as boring as watching paint dry but I'll still watch it for the research value.
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We cashed another one Dark Horse, thanks again.
Boy, I was right about the result but it sure wasn't like watching paint dry, it was a classic actually.
It goes to show, the league can only do so much. Not that the calls down the stretch were as one sided, Man!Comment -
It is good to be at home. I look forward to the g4 roster.Comment -
Steve Javie, Patron Saint of the Road Team: 33-44.
Tom Washington, 4th biggest homer in the league: 48-31.
Joe Derosa, #1 biggest homer in the league: 51-27.
WOW. Talk about a Heisenberg Effect.
Do with this information what you want, I call voodoo.Comment -
Steve Javie goes up against a real Batman and Robin here. Will the dynamic duo come through?
The above numbers, posted by Wheell, are ATS! DeRosa is 51-27-2 ATS for the home team.
This homer doesn't even like to bother about annoying details such as ATS or SU. His SU record is 51-29. Identical. Well, almost. Upon close inspection his ATS home/away record actually has a higher percentage than the SU record! (Is that even possible?) For the criminals and low lives out on the floor this is one intimidating force.
Bruce Wayne's helper tonight, straight out of DC Comics, is Tom Washington. An excellent student, Tommy partially outshines Batman with a whopping 53-27 SU home/away, and he's well on his way to the pinnacle of dark knighthood ATS: 48-31-1 home/away.
That leaves Joker, err Javie, in the undesirable underdog role. What's he going to do? Pull out all the stops with so much public attention on suspicious activity? He's 43-34 SU home/away. Is this really the night to emphasize his shining contribution to mankind: a 33-44 ATS home/away number?
We think not. Lakers SU is the safe bet. Lakers ATS looks good.Comment -
Dark Horse: Washington and deRosa have each been top 4 in the homer stats for the last two years. That can't be luck.Comment -
Agreed.Comment -
I see a Lakers win, I'm on the Lakers ML. Let's cash this thing.
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Jack has a sense of humor.
One of my few regrets. My wife still reminds me of this from time to time, because it was my fault. Not making it to his daughter's wedding to which we had received invitations. Huge party. Jack was there, in fine form, and they even had elephants!Comment -
How did you get invited? Do you know him or something?Jack has a sense of humor.
One of my few regrets. My wife still reminds me of this from time to time, because it was my fault. Not making it to his daughter's wedding to which we had received invitations. Huge party. Jack was there, in fine form, and they even had elephants!
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My wife had befriended his daughter.Comment -
Quick question, what does ATS, SU mean?Comment -
Against the spread, Straight Up.
End of 1Q, but this game is in the refrigerator. The butter is getting hard, the jello is jiggling, and all that good stuff.
More importantly, the league got Steve Javie out of the way.
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Spoke too soon. Ain't over until the fat lady sings. You just don't expect that kind of giant choke job in the NBA finals. Making Javie's job easy.
Boston has developed resilience during these playoffs. They're no longer soft.Comment -
Wow.
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I only saw part of the game. Walked away after 1Q, and came back with 10 minutes left. From what I saw during this period the zebras were calling an even game. I did not see the type of one-sided calls that decide the game.
So they can do it. I'll sit out the remainder of the finals. Too much spotlight on the refs right now.Comment
