Tonight's Zebras

fearless · 05-25-08, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Mike Callahan - not popular with home teams, which are a horrible 28-47 ATS and 35-40 SU when he officiates. His totals are tilted heavily as well: 27-44 towards the under.

Joe DeRosa - he's up against Callahan tonight. (Don't let anybody tell you the playoffs are between teams). DeRosa smiles upon home teams at the tune of 50-26-2 ATS and 50-28 SU. This virtually identical record invites ATS plays. These two refs don't see eye to eye when it comes to totals either, with DeRosa clocking in at 43-34 towards the over.

Will tonight's third zebra tilt the balance?

Meet Eddie Rush. Home teams love him at a 51-22 SU rate. Home team bettors are somewhat less enamored, but still profitable at 40-32-1 ATS. His totals can be ignored at 38-34 O/U.

Gentlemen. Start your engines!

With DeRosa and Rush combining for a 101-50 SU edge for the home team, Callahan could be in for a tough night.

That's hilarious. Did you write that yourself or did you get it from a site?

pimike · 05-25-08, 06:59 PM

Nice work

Dark Horse · 05-26-08, 03:17 AM

Easy cover for DeRosa and Rush.
And Callahan got his under, so everybody's happy.

MyKickerHurts · 05-26-08, 07:49 AM

When I see Zebra's Ref like this, It makes me wanna go on a Saffari, and hunt them down

Dark Horse · 05-26-08, 11:09 AM

BOS @ DET game 4

Cheering on from the sidelines tonight are:

Dan Crawford (not to be confused with Joey Crawford. If you're not sure, Joey once sent Tim Duncan off for laughing at his shining bald head). Under Danny's tutelage the home town kids are a handsome 62-36 SU. The ML would be the play because Crawford is 46-50-1 ATS home/away.

Bob Delaney is 50-23 SU home/away, and 33-36 ATS. That gives us a sweet 112-59 SU edge with only one zebra to go.

Completing the dynamic trio is Scott Foster. Foster rings in at 47-33 SU for the home boys, and 36-43-1 ATS.

No real edges in totals.

In short, Bob, Dan, and Scott are all on the same page. Tonight's zebras are joining the seven dwarfs in the catchy classic 'whistle while you work'. Leave the house cleaning to Snow White and bet the Pistons ML.

* playoff refs are 'the best in the business'. They get more top teams throughout the regular season. So not too many shots at teams like the Clippers (13-28 SU at home). Refs should at least have separate records for teams over .500 and under .500.

Dark Horse · 05-27-08, 10:57 AM

Refs cashed in again. Continuing this deliciously cynical way of capping the NBA....

Speak of the devil! A Joey Crawford/Tim Duncan reunion this very eve! But Lakers bettors needn't jump for joy. Besides posting a respectable 36-20 SU home/away team record, Joey has been kind to home bettors: 32-21-3 ATS.

Bettors can't expect any help from the second ref, Joe Forte, who's a perfectly balanced 40-40-1 ATS. No edge?!? Who does this guy think he is?!

What does zebra number 3 think about this? Mark Wunderlich has a 37-31-3 ATS home/away team record. May not seem like much, but it's still 54.4%.

But Joey Crawford takes the cake with a 60.4% ATS (!) on the home team... How many NBA bettors can claim that type of edge?

Forget his quarrel with Duncan. If it's up to Joey the Spurs win ATS.

(Oh, and Lakers ML bettors are up against a combined 131-77 SU edge favoring the home team.)

Dark Horse · 05-28-08, 12:22 PM

A loss for the zebras last night! And they tried so hard to jump start the Spurs; if jump starting is still the right word after three quarters.

If free throws tell a story, compare the totals after three quarters:
Spurs 26 - Lakers 12

But there seems to have been a conscious decision to swallow the whistles in the 4Q, when the FT's were:
Spurs 0 - Lakers 1,
until the final two minutes (intentional fouling) when the Lakers got 6 more for a final score of:
Spurs 0 - Lakers 7

The final non-call on Berry was nothing special. In fact, if Fisher had been paying attention he knew he could get away with a foul.

Dark Horse · 05-28-08, 04:36 PM

Game 5 already in the Boston-Detroit series. Time flies.

Mike Callahan makes another appearance. See first post in thread. Now 29-47 ATS home/away teams and 36-40 SU. The road team has won the game more often than not with Callahan! The road team wins ATS 61.8% of the time. Callahan loves the under almost as much at 27-45 O/U.

Ken Mauer, with the slick combed back hair, is kinder to the home teams (46-37 SU), but not to home team bettors, who are 37-45-1. Mauer is 38-44 O/U.

They are joined tonight by Eddie Rush (also in first post), a huge home ref at 52-22 SU, but 41-32-1 ATS.

Almost worth a Zebra Parlay of Callahan/Mauer: Pistons ATS x Under

Dark Horse · 05-28-08, 10:53 PM

Callahan and Mauer with the late spurt to get the ATS win for the Pistons: 102-106

(under missed, but totals not that interesting).

Wheell · 05-28-08, 11:51 PM

Thurs. May 29 Created: May 29, 2008 12:29am ET Game Official 1 Official 2 Official 3 San Antonio @ L.A. Lakers S. Javie M. McCutchen T. Washington

Wheell · 05-28-08, 11:52 PM

The man, the myth, the friend of the road team, Steve Javie. NBA might want lakers Celtics, but it also likes long series. Spurs +8.

Dark Horse · 05-29-08, 12:51 PM

Steve Javie coming in tonight at 32-44 ATS and 42-34 home/away. (His reputation precedes him, but he's actually beaten by Callahan.)

Of course, only bettors care about ATS numbers. Tonight Javie is joined by Monty McCutchen (50-25 SU home/away) and Tom Washington (52-27 SU home/away). With a 47-31-1 ATS (60.3% !) record, Washington certainly balances out Javie.

Lakers ML.

Wheell · 05-29-08, 01:21 PM

I respect your opinion Dark Horse, hopefully we both win. GL.

Dark Horse · 05-29-08, 02:35 PM

GL.

I don't really have an opinion. The zebra angle is just something to consider.

Big_Cheese · 05-29-08, 06:27 PM

Man this is Nuts....

Dark Horse · 05-29-08, 10:48 PM

Another win for the refs and Lakers ML.

Vujacic last second 3 pt shot gave either a push or ATS win to Laker bettors, but who would have taken that shot with the game over?

Wheell · 05-29-08, 11:10 PM

I'm not bitter. Honestly I feel the Lakers deserved the cover due to their control of the game late in the 4th q. Spurs got a steal and a random 3 to almost back door cover. Congratulations Dark Horse.

Wheell · 05-30-08, 12:47 AM

Bennett Salvatore, T. Brothers, J. DeRosa. Celtics in 7.

Dark Horse · 05-30-08, 06:09 PM

Thanks. You got it.

DeRosa (see post 1) is the cream of the crop for home teams: 51-28 SU and 51-26-2 ATS. Don't worry about ML's with DeRosa. He's good for the spread.

Salvatore is as impressive for home teams 52-24 SU, but a little more subdued towards home bettors. Still a respectable 43-34 ATS.

The opposition tonight is the always dangerous road ref Tony Brothers, who is 38-39 SU, but a very impressive 31-46 ATS home/away.

So for tonight it's DeRosa/Salvatore against Brothers. Salvatore may be getting old, but I'm going with a slamdunk for DeRosa.

Dark Horse · 05-30-08, 09:32 PM

See that call by Salvatore?

Pierce hits a three and should have gotten an extra FT. Instead he gets an offensive foul. Hamilton jumped into him.

diogee · 05-30-08, 09:33 PM

Wow...should have read this over. Officiating is getting ridiculous in this one.

pokernut9999 · 05-30-08, 09:34 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

See that call by Salvatore?

Pierce hits a three and should have gotten an extra FT. Instead he gets an offensive foul. Hamilton jumped into him.

Worst call I have ever seen

Dark Horse · 05-30-08, 09:41 PM

He also kindly called that phantom 4th foul on KG. Funny sh*t.

Dark Horse · 05-30-08, 09:46 PM

That was Tony Brothers calling the travel against the Pistons ... He's hanging in there.

Dark Horse · 05-30-08, 10:05 PM

Celtics on 23-6 run, hitting everything. That's too good (for refs).

rake922 · 05-30-08, 10:55 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

See that call by Salvatore?

Pierce hits a three and should have gotten an extra FT. Instead he gets an offensive foul. Hamilton jumped into him.

he should be banned...

Wheell · 06-05-08, 01:32 PM

Bavetta, Foster, and Rush.

Celtics up 1-0 already? I would have thought they would save Bavetta until the really needed him... I would have been wrong.

Dark Horse · 06-05-08, 04:55 PM

You're right. Bavetta and Rush is a mighty tandem. We have seen teams beat the zebras (Celtics came back from down 60-70), but it is not easy. Celtics pretty much hit everything down the stretch. We have also seen refs 'let 'm play' in the 4Q (with questionable calls focused on 3Q).

Bavetta brings a 52-29 SU record to the home team. Joined by a relatively neutral 41-37-3 ATS record. He's also 36-46 O/U.

Eddie Rush is even better at 53-22 SU home/away. His 41-33-1 ATS record home/away is profitable too. Rush has a slight lean towards the over at 39-35.

Tonight's opposition is Scott Foster. At 48-33 SU home/away he won't be much help for the Lakers, but his 37-43-1 ATS record may give Laker bettors some hope. Foster is 37-44 O/U.

Take the Celtics.

Dark Horse · 06-05-08, 11:00 PM

Bavetta and Rush for the winner.

Smooth performance. You'd almost forget it was the playoffs, the way they blew the whistle on every little Laker bump down the stretch.

mooseboy84 · 06-05-08, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Bavetta and Rush for the winner.

Smooth performance. You'd almost forget it was the playoffs, the way they blew the whistle on every little Laker bump down the stretch.

So true.

Wheell · 06-07-08, 11:38 PM

D. Crawford, Delaney, Mauer. This signals the leagues intentions of tying up the series. The line has taken this information into account but making the lakers favorites is now clearly correct. Also, the under benefits slightly.

fearless · 06-08-08, 05:34 PM

Dark Horse, I'm waiting for your write up. Please don't let the fans down!

Dark Horse · 06-08-08, 05:55 PM

One moment. Almost forgot. Sidetracked by Euro2008.

fearless · 06-08-08, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

One moment. Almost forgot. Sidetracked by Euro2008.