Big bet for me Wednesday

chimp · 03-16-11, 01:06 PM

I'm on this one as well. It's about time the nuggets come back down to earth

No coincidences · 03-16-11, 01:08 PM

Originally posted by chimp

I'm on this one as well. It's about time the nuggets come back down to earth

I love this Nuggets team, and I've been making a killing with them since the trade.

Don't like them tonight, though. Not saying I'm right -- just my take.

chimp · 03-16-11, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I love this Nuggets team, and I've been making a killing with them since the trade.

Don't like them tonight, though. Not saying I'm right -- just my take.

Been fading them after the trade, actually. Killed me the other night with Hornets. About time I get my money back tonight.

No coincidences · 03-16-11, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by chimp

Been fading them after the trade, actually. Killed me the other night with Hornets. About time I get my money back tonight.

BOL chimp.

No coincidences · 03-16-11, 01:15 PM

re: the line SK -- Denver was -6.5 when they played earlier this season. I'd say given that, the Nuggets' recent success and Atlanta being on a B2B, the line's where it should be, don't you think?

No coincidences · 03-16-11, 01:35 PM

Small plays:

IND/BOS over 195
ORL/MIL under ??? (waiting for a better number, because it's going up)
DAL/GS under 211
SAC -8.5

Vulcan300 · 03-16-11, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

This is the same logic that made so many people on here so confident about the Pistons when the Nuggets went to Detroit on Jan 26th... Denver was a shit road team, on a B2B, that hadn't won at the Palace in a LONG time, and the Nuggets still beat them by 9. Such trends are worse than worthless because they're misleading.

It seems odd to me that with the factors contributing to the matchup: Hawks having this good home track record against the Nuggets and in a revenge situation (albeit not from a big blowout), while Denver is supposedly a shit team on the road, missing Arron Afflalo, and with the Magic & Heat coming up next... With all that, ATL is only a pk at open?

I like the Nuggets. Not a big bet, but I really wouldn't describe the Hawks as being in a favourable spot. More like neutral. Be careful going big, especially chasing yesterday's losses...

i was gonna post a similar comment about this, the bigger trend with hawks is their record vs teams above .500,revenge game record and their record b2b; which favors nuggets.

more importantly tho, if you were asked who's the better team currently. you can answer nuggets easily.

suicidekings · 03-16-11, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

re: the line SK -- Denver was -6.5 when they played earlier this season. I'd say given that, the Nuggets' recent success and Atlanta being on a B2B, the line's where it should be, don't you think?

No. The line in the previous game was slanted in Denver's favour because ATL was playing their 5th in 7 and their last game in a 7 game road trip. Not a fair comparison to take at face value. Additionally, the +3/-3 is an APPROXIMATION for people that don't want to bother assessing the actual HCA each team warrants. Using an average home court advantage is not really applicable to the Nuggets in assessing a fair line as they enjoy the largest home court advantage in the NBA in terms of average MOV, meaning they should get more at home and give up more on the road than the average implies.

You have to assess the bias in the first line before just assuming that is was fair.

Goat Milk · 03-16-11, 02:13 PM

seems like a pretty good bet

BayArea888 · 03-16-11, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

And what would the perception be of Milwaukee after their last two performances? IMHO, this should be at least -6.5.

the line is right. Orlando is not the same powerhouse on the road as at home. this line would translate to a -11 at home, which is fair.

Jerm3462 · 03-16-11, 07:46 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Horrible night tonight -- hoping to bounce back.

ATL -1

If you hate it, fade it.

Looks like you have a stinker going into the 4th qtr.

I faded it, but not because of what you said. Denver's HOT, and you get 2 points.

Best of luck in the 4th.

No coincidences · 03-16-11, 08:01 PM

Yeah -- not looking so good.

No coincidences · 03-16-11, 08:05 PM

No coincidences · 03-16-11, 08:14 PM

Man, the Nuggets are friggin' good.

JOHON8 · 03-16-11, 08:19 PM

I really don't understand why you took the Hawks. This team has been choking A LOT in the last couple of games and you take them vs the HOTTEST team in the NBA.

I'm sorry but I really think you have to take a break from gambling, this was not smart, especially making it a big bet.

No coincidences · 03-16-11, 08:22 PM

Originally posted by JOHON8

I really don't understand why you took the Hawks. This team has been choking A LOT in the last couple of games and you take them vs the HOTTEST team in the NBA.

I'm sorry but I really think you have to take a break from gambling, this was not smart, especially making it a big bet.

I'm well up the past two weeks; hitting a lot of NCAA bets.

Thanks for your concern.

Pauulzcappin · 03-16-11, 08:27 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Man, the Nuggets are friggin' good.

Im sorry you lost your bet but is this comment serious?

You know I appreciate your comments but you already knew this when you bet the hawks man.

They are a very good team that's deep and does especially well when Felton, LAwson and Nene are on court together.

No coincidences · 03-16-11, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Im sorry you lost your bet but is this comment serious?

You know I appreciate your comments but you already knew this when you bet the hawks man.

They are a very good team that's deep and does especially well when Felton, LAwson and Nene are on court together.

I just thought they'd be in a little bit of a lull spot here. Guess they're just going to win out.

Dexter · 03-16-11, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by JOHON8

I really don't understand why you took the Hawks. This team has been choking A LOT in the last couple of games and you take them vs the HOTTEST team in the NBA.

I'm sorry but I really think you have to take a break from gambling, this was not smart, especially making it a big bet.

johon....where do we sign up for your plays?...lol

what a joke this place is....everyone is a sports gambling genius

lakerboy · 03-16-11, 08:30 PM

Dont worry about it. Just move on. Take the warriors tonight and get your money back.

No coincidences · 03-16-11, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

johon....where do we sign up for your plays?...lol

what a joke this place is....everyone is a sports gambling genius

Especially after the fact.

Of course it looks like a horrible bet now. Jeezus.

No coincidences · 03-16-11, 08:32 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Dont worry about it. Just move on. Take the warriors tonight and get your money back.

Had a lean for GS, LB, but not enough to play it other than very small. I actually like the Kings more.

Good luck.

Pauulzcappin · 03-16-11, 08:33 PM

Johon is a good guy but he does pull some of those after the game is over.

No coincidences · 03-16-11, 08:34 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Johon is a good guy but he does pull some of those after the game is over.

Are the Nuggets just not going to lose again Paul?

Dexter · 03-16-11, 08:35 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Johon is a good guy but he does pull some of those after the game is over.

oh i know....not the first time hes pulled shit like that.

Vulcan300 · 03-16-11, 08:40 PM

dam, i'm glad i was right this time with my lean, i went 10x

bachngocduong · 03-16-11, 09:00 PM

atlanta hawk **** suck team

JOHON8 · 03-16-11, 09:01 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

johon....where do we sign up for your plays?...lol

what a joke this place is....everyone is a sports gambling genius

Go to the soccer forum and let me help you get even.

Up +60 units in soccer because I know my ****ing sport. You guys keep taking the Hawks, Orlando etc.. even someone not following the NBA isn't that square.

JOHON8 · 03-16-11, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Johon is a good guy but he does pull some of those after the game is over.

I've argued about the Hawks for a month with these guys before the games start, they keep taking them telling me I don't know sht. Results speak for themselves though, there are some capper in here who are very experienced, there are others who just flip a coin and act like they're sharp.

mlb · 03-16-11, 09:20 PM

They blew tonight

Dexter · 03-16-11, 09:53 PM

Originally posted by JOHON8

Go to the soccer forum and let me help you get even.

Up +60 units in soccer because I know my ****ing sport. You guys keep taking the Hawks, Orlando etc.. even someone not following the NBA isn't that square.

damn bro...ur the man!

how are you up so many units with such a horrible record? you didnt chase in cyberspace, did you?

Dexter · 03-16-11, 09:57 PM

johon - enlighten us.....the public was 50/50 on the hawks game, so why were they a "square" bet?

TTA_President · 03-16-11, 09:58 PM

Lost this one too. I had The hawks and orlando tonight!

Vulcan300 · 03-16-11, 10:01 PM

public was 50/50 because they went with the ATS record of the old nugget team vs the hawks. if you wanna use that trend take the hawks vs knicks, lol.

dynamite140 · 03-16-11, 10:17 PM

YET ANOTHER USELESS THREAD FROM NO COINCIDENCES