Bartek's NBA post all-star break picks

[bolekblues]

Hi everyone.

I've been working for quite some time on an NBA sides model, which is based on team's efficiencies (as its core), and reflects other potentially significant variables, such as rest, injuries and other situational factors.

I decided to give it a go for the remainder of this season as it has shown some promising results in the past.

The stakes of the system bets will be based on one of the fraction kelly criterion, probably rounded to integers or integer + a half. It will not be units, rather a certain fraction of a current bankroll. I know it can devastate one if the edge is miscalculated, but if you are able to sustain similar winning rate from the sample in which it was backtested, you will be far better off betting kelly (or its fractional derivative) than flat units. I might write more about this tomorrow.

The first bet is chicago +3. The line movement does not favor me but i will try to not defy the model.

2011-02-24, Chicago +3 (-107), 5,35% to win 5%

Let's have a nice run to end the reg. season

[bolekblues]

adding the nuggets. only concern is the new players and their chemistry, actually would prefer if denver played with the 'old' 8-9 players, but we'll see.


2011-02-24, Denver +4,5 (-103), 2,06% to win 2%

[bolekblues]

A nice pair of winners yesterday.

As i said, i will use a % of a current BR as a base for stakes. For clarity, i will also provide the %'s of initial BRfor today's first 3 bets.
I will probably use the shortened version going forward (as shown in the remaining bets for today)

2011-02-25, New York -8 (-101), 7,58% to win 7,5% (8,11% to win 8,03% of the initial bankroll)
2011-02-25, Atlanta +3 (-101), 6,42% to win 6% (6,87% to win 6,42% of the initial bankroll)
2011-02-25, Charlotte -5,5 (-106), 3,18% to win 3% (3,4% to win 3,21% of the initial bankroll)
2011-02-25, San Antonio -11,5 (+100), to win 2%
2011-02-25, New Orleans -5 (-104), to win 2%

Other bets that would have made it but for trades aftermath, but still like them: ORL, WAS, LAL, PHO, DEN

[bolekblues]

2011-02-25 results: 3-2
YTD: 5-2, +10,66%

The system bets which i was afraid to pull the trigger on went perfect 5-0 guess i will have to blindly tail the model's bets, regardless of the trades and other potentially distracting factors.

2011-02-26, Boston -7,5 (-104), to win 8%
2011-02-26, Memphis -10 (-109), to win 4%
2011-02-26, Chicago -3,5 (-106), to win 8%
2011-02-26, Dallas -9,5 (-103), to win 4%

[bolekblues]

2011-02-26 results: 2-2
YTD: 7-4, +10,18%

Boston missed the cover by a point Oh well, On to the next day. No play for the first game.

[bolekblues]

2011-02-27, LA Lakers -1,5 (-103), to win 4%

[bolekblues]

[COLOR=#000000 ! important] 2011-02-27, Philadelphia -7,5 (-106), to win 8%[/COLOR]

[bolekblues]

2011-02-27, New Orleans -6 (-108), to win 2%
2011-02-27, San Antonio -9 (+100), to win 4%
2011-02-27, Orlando -11 (-105), to win 2%
2011-02-27, Atlanta +5 (-101), to win 4%

[bolekblues]

2011-02-27 results: 3-3
YTD: 10-7, +5,07%

Philly blew the cover leading by 11 after the 3rd Q

[bolekblues]

2011-02-28, Phoenix -2,5 (-102), to win 4%
2011-02-28, LA Clippers -1 (+102), risk 8%
2011-02-28, Boston -4,5 (+100), to win 4%
2011-02-28, Chicago -7,5 (-103), to win 9%

[bolekblues]

2011-02-28 results: 2-2
YTD: 12-9, +6,03%

[bolekblues]

2011-03-01
Indiana -5,5 (+100), 4%
San Antonio +1,5 (-105), 7%
LA Lakers -9 (-105), 4%
Philadelphia +2 (-102), 2%
New Orleans -5,5 (-108), 4%

[polskboy]

maolat co ty sam tu piszesz???

[bolekblues]

[COLOR=#000000 ! important] 2011-03-01 results: 2-3
YTD: 14-12, -0,0002%

I am right where i started... hopefully will start winning consistenlty from now on.
[/COLOR]

[bolekblues]

2011-03-02
Chicago -4 (-105), 9%
Boston -7 (-103), 2,5%
San Antonio -9 (-108), 3,5%
Denver -6,5 (-105), 3,5%
Houston +3 (-106), 3,5%
New Orleans 2,5 (-108), 3,5%
Portland -3 (-110), 3,5%

[MrSink]

powodzenia
chicago -4 wyglada niezle na dzis

[bolekblues]

powodzenia chicago -4 wyglada niezle na dzis

[bolekblues]

2011-03-02 results: 4-2-1
YTD: 18-14-1, -0,25%

Would have been a huge night but chicago blew a massive lead and they were the biggest bet of the day. At least Spurs managed to cover -9.

[Bostongambler]

gl Boobblues

[bolekblues]

2011-03-03
Denver +3,5 (-110), 2,5%

[bolekblues]

gl Boobblues

thank you bostongambler

[bolekblues]

2011-03-03 results: 1-0
YTD: 19-14-1, +1,22%


2011-03-04
Boston -9,5 (-104), 2,5%
Indiana +8,5 (+100), 3,5%
LA Lakers -12,5 (-106), 2,5%
New Orleans +5,5 (+100), 3,5%
New York -12,5 (-106), 3,5%
Chicago +2 (-104), 5%
Philadelphia -9 (-109), 3,5%

[bolekblues]

2011-03-04 results: 4-3
YTD: 23-17-1 (57,5%), +7,84%

[bolekblues]

2010-03-05
Houston -6,5 (-110), 3,5%
Denver +2 (-105), 6,5%
Portland -10,5 (-110), 2,5%
Utah -7,5 (-110), 3,5%
Washington -3,5 (-107), 2,5%

[bolekblues]

[COLOR=#000000 ! important] 2011-03-05 results: 3-2
YTD: 26-19-1 (57,8%), +5,49%

Biggest bet (DEN) did not go in and Utah just missed the cover, but they needed OT so can't complain about this one.
[/COLOR]

[bolekblues]

2010-03-06
Chicago +5 (-104), 3,5%
San Antonio -2,5 (-107), 3,5%

more to come later

[bolekblues]

Philadelphia -7,5 (-105), 2,5%

[bolekblues]

Atlanta -3,5 (-108), 3,5%
New Orelans -4,5 (-105), 10%
Memphis +6,5 (-104), 2,5%
Boston -7,5 (-105), 2,5%

[bolekblues]

2011-03-06 results: 4-3 YTD: 30-22-1 (57,7%), +14,3% Hawks are terrible, they just have no offense. knicks without billups and turiaf (two of their best def. players) easily win in ATL. Still a positive night

[bolekblues]

2011-03-07
Dallas -7 (-103), 3,5%
Houston -4 (-110), 3,5%

[mehow]

i like houston pick, not sure about dallas.
powodzenia!

[bolekblues]

i like houston pick, not sure about dallas. powodzenia!

Dallas falls into a heavy road favorite category, which have not fared well as far as picks in this thread (boston a couple times, dallas at wash, denv at cle), but the system has been able to point out some inefficiencies in this department as well in the past, so let's see what happens.

Will probably add chicago, but am waiting for the line to move to -10.

dzięki!

[bolekblues]

Chicago -10,5 (+100), 2,5%

[bolekblues]

New York -5,5 (-109), 2,5%

[bolekblues]

2011-03-07 results: 2-2
YTD: 32-24-1 (57,1%), +14,18%


2011-03-08
LA Lakers -4,5 (-107), 3,5%
Golden State -5 (-105), 5%
Philadelphia ML (-110), 3,5%
Miami -8,5 (-110), 3,5%
Milwaukee ML (-108), 3,5%

all of the sides that model showed value have moved in the proper direction (suggested by model). i am pissed i havent played those earlier, as i lost a ton of value. houston at +5,5 would have been a play as well