How in the hell is Utah only -2?

[politicin]

Seriously... if you don't smash this line, win/lose, you fail at life...

I will never understand this line

Kirilenko probable for tonight... makes no sense to me

considering dropping another 5 units on it (took 5 already)

[supershark]

um, please waste your money on utah on the road, i wont be.

[politicin]

against a 12-35 team LOL... are you making a joke here?

put up some points on sacramento at +2?

20 point wager?

Sac is 7-19 at home
Utah is 13-12 away...

I think you missed the boat of intelligence guy

[Power Play]

Utah's really struggling lately also Sacramento are playing better of late especially at ARCO. Remember last year they were a monster at home ATS wise. However I would definitely lean Utah in this spot because the line is still too low considering all those factors. Good Luck!

[esulima]

Seriously... if you don't smash this line, win/lose, you fail at life...

I will never understand this line

Kirilenko probable for tonight... makes no sense to me

considering dropping another 5 units on it (took 5 already)

all take kings +2 for 20 points bro u in

[Thunderman]

With a SU win in Denver a few nights ago, I don't see why they aren't the play here. I'm on it

[politicin]

Way too low PP... Kirilenko back... this line is too easy... Utah will always struggle without AK... especially against OKC and other elite teams... this is going to be an 8 point Utah win here

[politicin]

all take kings +2 for 20 points bro u in

Only if you send them to me first and I send them back upon Sac winning if they do... my word is spotless clean and everyone knows it... only way I will do business with you... let me know

[politicin]

I'd go as far as to say... if you don't see the value in this play, stop sports betting

[esulima]

Only if you send them to me first and I send them back upon Sac winning if they do... my word is spotless clean and everyone knows it... only way I will do business with you... let me know

why ? bro its points, im not going to stick u on points win or lose, i dont care its for fun

[politicin]

So send them ahead of time, and it's a deal. My reputation here is spotless, and I already know yours is shaky. If you want the action, send em through. Not going to debate it. The only exception, is if PP is game for it, we can use him as a third party and ask him to transfer points to the winner... Only way I will trust you after your last stunt... take it or leave it

[30K Millionaire]

Looks good to me. I capped Kings 95, Jazz 101

[Power Play]

I would be fine with being the third party but remember the rake fees would pile up it's better if you guys directly deal with each other. I can vouch for Politicin he'll pay up. I'll pay you if he doesn't (won't happen) if it makes you feel better.

[politicin]

You're a real good guy PP. I appreciate you vouching for me, and investing your time in this. If you ever need anything, don't hesitate man.

[Power Play]

[esulima]

So send them ahead of time, and it's a deal. My reputation here is spotless, and I already know yours is shaky. If you want the action, send em through. Not going to debate it. The only exception, is if PP is game for it, we can use him as a third party and ask him to transfer points to the winner... Only way I will trust you after your last stunt... take it or leave it

what ever last stunt, and shaky, bro its points, not money win or lose i dont care. and no i dont want the bet now. i guess u were affraid to lose to me again

[cleaveland]

I was thinking about this the other day...

The Jazz have been -2 at Sacramento since the days of Stockton and Malone. It's so funny, I remember seeing that same line year in and year out for like 20 years it seems like.

The Jazz are only 2 point favorites because that's what the market says they are.

Now, this is one time when checking the refs is damn important:

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/matchups/g5_referees_11.html

Kirkland's SU record for home teams is 35-9 and the other two refs are a combined 46-25. But you don't believe in fixes so it's nothing to worry about, I would be a little concerned here.

[politicin]

No, I just am not stupid enough to trust somebody with as little credibility/morals as you. Take care, let me know if you want the bet.

[politicin]

I was thinking about this the other day...

The Jazz have been -2 at Sacramento since the days of Stockton and Malone. It's so funny, I remember seeing that same line year in and year out for like 20 years it seems like.

The Jazz are only 2 point favorites because that's what the market says they are.

Now, this is one time when checking the refs is damn important:

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/matchups/g5_referees_11.html

Kirkland's SU record for home teams is 35-9 and the other two refs are a combined 46-25. But you don't believe in fixes so it's nothing to worry about, I would be a little concerned here.

I really do appreciate the heads up here. Thank you very much Cleave. As you said however, I don't believe in any such thing within the NBA. Perhaps college, if anything, but I wouldn't put to much stock in that being true either. Again though, I appreciate you looking out. Thanks buddy.

[cleaveland]

I really do appreciate the heads up here. Thank you very much Cleave. As you said however, I don't believe in any such thing within the NBA. Perhaps college, if anything, but I wouldn't put to much stock in that being true either. Again though, I appreciate you looking out. Thanks buddy.

Do you think Donaghy was lying about other refs besides him being corrupt and about the league giving the refs orders about how to ref games to give advantages to certain teams? Do you think the Lakers got 21 free throws in the fourth quarter of game 7 of the finals because they really deserved it (especially when you consider the free throw disparity between the teams)?

[Power Play]

Chances are Donaghy was telling the truth to a certain extent, but not entirely. There are two sides to every story and of course usually those stories have at least some semblance of truth in them. As for game 6 of Sacramento vs LA in that series I think the refs are biased as they need game 7 between the Lakeshow and Sac. As for game 7 I'm not sure. However I think since the Donaghy incident it's harder to be blantantly biased because of the additional scrutiny. Also those factors play less importance in the regular season imo.

[politicin]

They drive in the paint. Boston doesn't. Donaghy is a whore for controversy and his little story did its job, it sold his book and made a big name for himself. It also gave way for him to point the finger at others in an attempt to take weight off of his own personal crime that he, himself, committed. The only thing that is believable and true is referees having personal grudges towards individual players, and a bias against them from previous altercations.

[cleaveland]

They drive in the paint. Boston doesn't. Donaghy is a whore for controversy and his little story did its job, it sold his book and made a big name for himself. It also gave way for him to point the finger at others in an attempt to take weight off of his own personal crime that he, himself, committed. The only thing that is believable and true is referees having personal grudges towards individual players, and a bias against them for previous altercations.

You're choosing to believe that Donaghy is lying although I think he proved himself with that incredible ATS run of picks he had in last year's playoffs. If you followed his analysis he was picking the games based on what he thought the league wanted, that means the league was attempting to fix games and Donaghy picked like 90% ATS before he stopped doing it publicly. That convinced me he and most of this board that he was absolutely right on and that he was basing his picks on reality not theory or BS.

You believe what you want, that's fine.

But, if you see a ref favors the home team like Kirkland, maybe he's weak and he gets moved by the crowds, maybe it's an aberration or maybe he's a homer ref. There's something to that record 35-9 SU for home teams is way over average. I'm not saying it's corruption but he's probably significantly swayed by home crowds or something.

[ParlayJunkie]

I like Jazz tonight as well for a small wager. I think line should be at -4 IMO. GL

[BernardMadoff]

You're choosing to believe that Donaghy is lying although I think he proved himself with that incredible ATS run of picks he had in last year's playoffs. If you followed his analysis he was picking the games based on what he thought the league wanted, that means the league was attempting to fix games and Donaghy picked like 90% ATS before he stopped doing it publicly. That convinced me he and most of this board that he was absolutely right on and that he was basing his picks on reality not theory or BS.

You believe what you want, that's fine.

But, if you see a ref favors the home team like Kirkland, maybe he's weak and he gets moved by the crowds, maybe it's an aberration or maybe he's a homer ref. There's something to that record 35-9 SU for home teams is way over average. I'm not saying it's corruption but he's probably significantly swayed by home crowds or something.

I agree with most everything youre saying, but one would need to look into that 35-9 SU closer and see which games thoes were. We all know the home team wins more times than not anyway, also it would depend specifically if he reffed alot more games where there were matchups like say Wizards at Orlando where we know basically whose going to win that contest. 35-9 SU doesnt jump out that much really to me, now if you had said he was 35-9 ATS for home team then I might be scratching my head.

[Power Play]

Thanks for the info cleaveland those are nice things to look into. Is there a good site (payed or free) for NBA refs statistics? Those would be crucial information to have capping a game.

[cleaveland]

I agree with most everything youre saying, but one would need to look into that 35-9 SU closer and see which games thoes were. We all know the home team wins more times than not anyway, also it would depend specifically if he reffed alot more games where there were matchups like say Wizards at Orlando where we know basically whose going to win that contest. 35-9 SU doesnt jump out that much really to me, now if you had said he was 35-9 ATS for home team then I might be scratching my head.

I see what you mean but 35-9 is more or less like the second or third best home record in the league the last few years. It's like if this guy reffed every single Laker home game this is the result you'd expect. That's way above the league average, I think it's a sign he's a homer ref or he's swayed way too much by home crowds.

Now watch the Jazz will shoot twice as many free throws as the Kings. J/K I'd be very concerned about these refs for this game.

[cleaveland]

Thanks for the info cleaveland those are nice things to look into. Is there a good site (payed or free) for NBA refs statistics? Those would be crucial information to have capping a game.

I don't know, the site I posted is the only one I know about. If you find a better site please let me know.

[Whippit]

why do you bet into lines you do not understand

[politicin]

I agree with most everything youre saying, but one would need to look into that 35-9 SU closer and see which games thoes were. We all know the home team wins more times than not anyway, also it would depend specifically if he reffed alot more games where there were matchups like say Wizards at Orlando where we know basically whose going to win that contest. 35-9 SU doesnt jump out that much really to me, now if you had said he was 35-9 ATS for home team then I might be scratching my head.

Exactly. Was just going to come in and say, I would love to see those game match ups, and break down which ones are standard wins for the home team, and which ones are real dogs pulling out wins. It's possible, but to me highly unlikely, for the amount of money they're making to ref. Why do teams like the Spurs win? Why would Philly SWEEP the Lakers, one of the most respected franchises ever, in 1983? Why would Houston win 2 in a row? Does Houston really have a big draw for the NBA? Why did Detroit sweep the Lakers in 89? Wouldn't it have made more sense for a series as big as that to go 6 or even 7 games? The whole thing sounds a bit far fetched for me. It's sports, things happen, flukes happen. Sometimes a ref, a HUMAN BEING, misses an up and down call (Gasol game 7 last year)... things happen... they're really risking a MULTI BILLION DOLLAR industry from losing all credibility so that games can be rigged? I find that hard to believe...

[politicin]

why do you bet into lines you do not understand

You're an idiot.

[HoulihansTX]

You're an idiot.

[GarbageMan]

Not wanting to dampen your confidence, but there's a few other stats to take into consideration....

Utah is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Utah is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Sacramento is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Utah

[vyomguy]

chicago looked easy against warriors few days back...look what happened. Avoid late games with huge public backing...those are the burial games...especially when books lost every game in nba, nhl and nfl yesterday.

[cleaveland]

Exactly. Was just going to come in and say, I would love to see those game match ups, and break down which ones are standard wins for the home team, and which ones are real dogs pulling out wins. It's possible, but to me highly unlikely, for the amount of money they're making to ref. Why do teams like the Spurs win? Why would Philly SWEEP the Lakers, one of the most respected franchises ever, in 1983? Why would Houston win 2 in a row? Does Houston really have a big draw for the NBA? Why did Detroit sweep the Lakers in 89? Wouldn't it have made more sense for a series as big as that to go 6 or even 7 games? The whole thing sounds a bit far fetched for me. It's sports, things happen, flukes happen. Sometimes a ref, a HUMAN BEING, misses an up and down call (Gasol game 7 last year)... things happen... they're really risking a MULTI BILLION DOLLAR industry from losing all credibility so that games can be rigged? I find that hard to believe...

This was answered in the article I posted today. Read this quote from Bill Russel and hopefully you'll read the rest of the article:

Observe what else Russell had to say in the same passage:

"It seems to me that the NBA has gone out of its way to keep its referees poor and incompetent...for years I tried to get the league to hire a black referee and recommended more than a dozen good ones. They always found a way not to hire the ones I recommended, but at the same time officials kept telling me they were looking for "qualified black referees." They always used that adjective: referees were either plain referees or were "qualified Negro referees." Finally, in frustration I sent in the name of a referee who was famous as a bumbling idiot, so the NBA hired him, of course, and he was terrible. He couldn't tell a rulebook from a slide rule, and was a walking argument against affirmative action. The protests against him were so universal that I finally got a call asking why I'd recommended him. "I got tired of recommending 'qualified black referees,'" I said, "So I decided to recommend an unqualified one for a change, and that's the one you picked."

Read the rest of the article here:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/929988-huge-day-vegas-higher-probability-fixed-games.html