your record was 1-3 yesterday
overall 27-20
overall 27-20
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I've been following your system...not to play, but in general based on what types of results your system generates because I've got a totals system I'm constantly grooming to see if I have anything useful or I should scrap and restart, too early to tell but I'm encouraged.
Anyways, I just wanted to comments on one thing I noticed that you may want to monitor because it does come into play. You don't appear to apply, from what I can tell, very many filters. For example, I have two filters that I put in place that have helped W/L in a positive way that I would recommend.
1. Apply an overlay of at least 3 pts between my projected line and the actual line. I've noticed that games under 3 are basically toss-ups and you're basically playing a 50/50 proposition that could swing either way. If you can distinguish a little gap between your lines you can start seeing your system really favoring one side over another. I've played with different numbers and 3 seems to be the sweet spot.
2. Avoid games with totals set too high. When developing a line and running the statistics you may find it hard to predict a game will score 230pts when the line is 220. Due to the way the numbers crunch, I've found it hard to accurately predict games with big lines. Even though I generate numbers for them, I avoid them all together just to avoid the headache. The sweet spot for totals will always hover around 199...the further you deviate from there the less accurate your lines will be. Don't believe me...average out the totals for tonight's games...199.5 over all 10 games. This is an angle I'm still trying to exploit because there is value there.
Anyways, I don't want to clog up your thread but just thought I'd share something from what I've experienced and thought it might be helpful. I know you run both totals/spreads, so your filters could be different for spreads, but I stick to these for my totals and it seems to do me well.
A final note...anytime you develop a system, test it against data that was NOT used to develop the system (if possible) and see if you can generate the same results. If you're above 55% still, you probably have something golden...if not it's probably time for a do over.
Sorry for the book but GL tonight
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Thank you, Edited.Originally posted by dlew2kComment -
I appreciate the input ManBearPig. Not going to make any changes as of yet since it's still early. If I get near the end of the season with a losing record then I'll just throw out this system all together and try to find a different angle.Comment -
SA Spurs -3.5 -105 seems like a steal here. This will be my off system play tonight, GL guys.Comment -
Sorry I have no clue what you said here
Originally posted by the_mathmanYou can't say how is complicated if don't know what the sheet must to be.
In addition, VTranX spend him time here with us,
the minimum is help him to work!
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2/12/2011
7:00PM ET
CHA 21 21 22 22 86
ATL 25 21 25 20 91
Play: Charlotte +7.5, Under 187.5.
8:00pm ET
CHI 29 27 27 18 101
NOH 25 23 22 30 100
Play: New Orleans +3, Over 182.
10:00pm ET
OKC 26 28 26 21 101
SAC 25 28 25 21 99
Play: Sacramento +4.5, Under 208.Comment -
Translation: "How would you know that this system is complicated if you don't even know what the system is?".Originally posted by widebody2Comment -
grats on a really good day todayComment -
yea!!Comment -
Thanks, I really needed it.Originally posted by andiniComment -
Final ScoresOriginally posted by VTranX
CHA 27 12 29 20 88
ATL 27 25 20 14 86
CHI 24 18 30 25 97
NOH22 31 21 14 88
OKC 27 27 21 24 99
SAC 24 21 27 25 97
Record
Today:5-1-0
Totals: 3-0-0
ATS: 2-1-0
Overall: 32-21-1
Totals: 19-8-0
ATS: 13-13-1Comment -
Way to go Vtranx, that day off did your mind and body good!Comment -
Hi VtranX nice way to go...
Are there plays today?
BOL for ya'llComment -
Not today, just gonna enjoy my day from work. Though I had a personal pick on Celtics +3 that just hit.Originally posted by VinotintoComment -
You know what, stay tuned becuase i might do some boxscores on the night games 6pm-10pm.Comment -
Thanks man, I'll be here waiting for your predictions.Originally posted by VTranX
Kind regards...
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No problem, thanks for the points. I'll try to get them up with in an hour or so.Comment -
2/14/2011
6:00pm ET
DEN 23 28 26 33 110
MEM 33 27 24 21 105
Play: Denver +3, Over 210.
10:00pm ET
OKC 35 26 29 23 113
GSW 28 30 28 29 115
Play: Oklahoma +2.5, Over 214.
10:00pm ET
SAC 25 25 22 21 93
PHO 30 24 23 29 106
Play: Phoenix -9.5, Under 205.Comment -
LAL @ ORL Haltime Special (Off Record)
LAL 22 24 46
ORL 17 23 40
Play: L.A. Lakers -2, Under 97. (Bodog Lines)Comment -
Thanks, playing both OOriginally posted by VTranX
BOLComment -
Hi VtranX,
Are there plays today? Keep going mate!Comment -
DEN 26 41 23 18 108Originally posted by VTranX
MEM 31 24 27 34 116
OKC 20 23 23 28 94
GSW 23 24 27 26 100
SAC 30 20 28 35 113
PHO 32 25 24 27 108
Records
Today: 1-5-0
Totals: 1-2-0
ATS: 0-3-0
Overall: 33-26-1
Totals: 20-10-0
ATS: 13-16-1
Sorry for the late recap.Comment -
thanx for the time you put in. Appreciate the picks. ThanxComment -
your results are very interesting.Originally posted by VTranX
"don't stop you now" for a unlucky sequence.
go, go, VtranX, go!Comment -
Hey V... Any chance of posting the results earlier?
However, thanks for your time and keep moving forward.
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VtranX,
you are in the "All stars holiday"?Comment -
great work here, best in nba sectionComment -
Hey VtranX... Still in All Star break
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Been a while since I've done a boxscore. Anyone want me to jump start this again?Comment -
Definately!!
Would be great to see your calculations for the playoffs
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just do the totals. I;m interestedComment -
yea always a fan, i like it when i already have my own pick and your numbers back it up.Comment -
4/16/2011
IND 21 27 22 20 90
CHI 29 22 27 28 106
Play: Chicago -11.5, Over 188.Comment -
NBA Playoffs is a different beast guys, just a heads upComment
