Math man NBA 2011 Picks

[million2one]

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2/27:

Straight Bet 31: Houston Rockets (+6) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

System Bet 31: Houston Rockets (+9) risking 3.4 units to win 2 units

Nothing for today...
Looking at the T-Wolves for tomorrow. Hoping the line will move to 10.

YTD:

Straight Bets = 16 - 14 - 1 for +0.95 units

System Bets = 20 - 11 for +14.8 units

[million2one]

Should have gotten the +9.5 last night, I am going to wait until closing line to make my bet.
Not enough here for a system play so going small.
I may chase this play by fading the Lakers ATS in their next game.

3/1:
Straight Bet 32: Minnesota T-wolves (+9.5) risking 1.2 units to win 1 unit

[freeagent]

Minny playing well so far, let's do this!

[freeagent]

My bad we'll get em back tonight, how close was that line u were right about hoping it went to 10, then maybe buying a point or two. New York line seems low doesn't it, although billups may be out. Indy, Cleveland, Phoenix getting some healthy lines tonight maybe

[million2one]

3/1:
Straight Bet 32: Minnesota T-wolves (+9.5) risking 1.2 units to win 1 unit

Is no problem FA, I don't believe in all that jinx garbage, I am confident in my numbers and some win, some lose. Simple as that.
I had a feeling that if Minnesota kept it close all game, then LA would have to be play hard the 4th and would dominate and cover.
I would almost rather Minnesota get blown out early and LA take it easy in the 4th, and I can get a backdoor cover.
I was serious about fading LA though. Look who is coming to LA on Friday Your thoughts??

I am encouraged because what I am learning by keeping this thread is that the majority of my losses seem to be close losses, as last night. Such a fine line between winning and losing. Would have won if I made them a system pick, oh well.

Not sure how to play NY, because all my numbers are skewed for that team since the 'Melo trade. I would pass on this game.
I do like the value in Indy and Phx and may end up playing them straight.
But you know my style, my money play is gonna be the Cavs, another large home dog.

Curious about Houston too?
How are they +3 after winning handily at Portland and the line is almost the same as last night.
I would say Rockets are a huge play, but this may be a square pick.

Good Luck

3/2:

Straight Bet 33: Cleveland Cavaliers (+9) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

System Bet 32: Cleveland Cavaliers (+10) risking 1.3 units to win 1 unit

[million2one]

YTD:

Straight Bets = 16 - 15 - 1 for -0.25 units

System Bets = 20 - 11 for +14.8 units

[million2one]

3/2:

Straight Bet 33: Cleveland Cavaliers (+9) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

System Bet 32: Cleveland Cavaliers (+10) risking 1.3 units to win 1 unit

Adding a Play.

Straight Bet 34: Phoenix Suns (+7) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

[freeagent]

was trying to test how to upload a youtube video, didn't work

[freeagent]

looks like it did work this time but i edited it out, sorry for clogging your thread up with nonsense. Looks like the cavs game was right on the number again, unbelievable, keep it up my man

[million2one]

3/2:

Straight Bet 33: Cleveland Cavaliers (+9) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Straight Bet 34: Phoenix Suns (+7) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit


System Bet 32: Cleveland Cavaliers (+10) risking 1.3 units to win 1 unit

Tough night last night, CLE almost pulled off the backdoor cover, at least a got a push for the system. Thought for sure that play was toast.
Not happy with the 0 - 2 by my straight bets. Bounce back night tonight, get on board cause the dogs are barking

I LOVE Denver and am banking on them to come up big for me.
FYI the straight bets are for tracking purposes, system bets are where I put my

3/3:

Straight Bet 35: Denver Nuggets (+3.5) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Straight Bet 36: Orlando Magic (+5) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

System Bet 33: Denver Nuggets (+5.5) risking 3 units to win 2 units

[million2one]

YTD:

Straight Bets = 16 - 17 - 1 for -2.45 units

System Bets = 20 - 11 - 1 for +14.8 units

[million2one]

3/3:

Straight Bet 35: Denver Nuggets (+3.5) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Straight Bet 36: Orlando Magic (+5) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

System Bet 33: Denver Nuggets (+5.5) risking 3 units to win 2 units

As prescribed.
May take it easy tonight and glow over the units I picked up with the Nuggets, maybe should have dropped a bomb with that play, but this is my style, slow, steady, and conservative.

Dare I take CLE tonight?? I like the value, but it is revenge for NY. Tough call here.


YTD:

Straight Bets = 18 - 17 - 1 for -0.45 units

System Bets = 21 - 11 - 1 for +16.8 units

[million2one]

Some good value tonight including Denver, again as the dog.
I would take a good look at Bobcats as well, now that the line is +10.5, I know S-Jack is out, but sometimes teams step up when a star goes down, at least for the first game.

My big play is gonna be Sac-town though and will buy a few points for insurance.

3/5:

Straight Bet 37: Sacramento Kings (+7.5) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

System Bet 34: Sacramento Kings (+9) risking 1.4 units to win 1 unit

[freeagent]

Jazz have been struggling post trade and Sloan era, good luck!

[million2one]

3/5:

Straight Bet 37: Sacramento Kings (+7.5) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

System Bet 34: Sacramento Kings (+9) risking 1.4 units to win 1 unit

No system play for me, but I can't resist going small on the Bulls and watching some of this game.
Just seems like the Bulls are getting too many points here.

Straight Bet 38: Chicago Bulls (+5.5) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

[million2one]

YTD:

Straight Bets = 19 - 17 - 1 for +0.55 units

System Bets = 22 - 11 - 1 for +17.8 units

[freeagent]

Hat's off to ya must be doing something right, keep up the good work!

[million2one]

Straight Bet 38: Chicago Bulls (+5.5) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Can't find anything worth playing for today. New Orleans getting a lot of points, but I can't trust them without Paul.

YTD:

Straight Bets = 20 - 17 - 1 for +1.55 units

System Bets = 22 - 11 - 1 for +17.8 units

[million2one]

Mad at myself for not getting this in the morning.
Line is now at +4, gonna buy some points to get it back up, I love this play here, so not worried about an extra point or two.
How is Portland not a big play tonight, getting all those points???

3/8:

Straight Bet 39: Houston Rockets (+4) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

System Bet 35: Houston Rockets (+6) risking 1.5 units to win 1 unit

[freeagent]

That portland line was surprising to me also the way miami is struggling to lay 8.5 to a good team, cause people think they are due maybe, books setting a trap? How bout the Flyboys tonight, large juice but I hope they can break this losing streak I will play it like a philly homer.

[million2one]

3/8:

Straight Bet 39: Houston Rockets (+4) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

System Bet 35: Houston Rockets (+6) risking 1.5 units to win 1 unit

Could have been a big night last night, hope you cashed in.
Loved the Rockets and could have upped my units, Portland was a big time play against the Heat and the FlyGuys finally got a win.
I like the value here tonight with the Knicks after buying a few. I was gonna take Detroit but I hate betting against San Antonio off a loss.

Big JM play tonight with Orlando having revenge. Guess the book is scared of this one, making the Magic such a big fav.
If it keeps going up at some point I will have to take Sac-town with the points.


3/9:

Straight Bet 40: New York Knicks (+4.5) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

System Bet 36: New York Knicks (+6) risking 1.4 units to win 1 unit

[million2one]

YTD:

Straight Bets = 21 - 17 - 1 for +2.55 units

System Bets = 23 - 11 - 1 for +18.8 units

[BigJ]

Nice work man.

Any time you're up, it's good.

[freeagent]

That orlando line is out of control not sure what to do there. Great call on the rockets, teased them small with the Lakeshow who are on a road trip and have been on fire since the break. I went back to my stupid old tricks and parlayed Flyboys/Heat moneyline the Heat can't lose again I thought (square) after all the crying in locker room crap even though I knew the line was horrible. This was similar to the Saints (-10) bad line in the playoffs and taking moneyline instead and they lose outright, will I ever learn . That being said I never thought I would actually start to feel bad for the Heat, it's almost a shame, seems like Wade and James are too much the same type of player to have on one team, now the Show come to town tomorrow on TNT, should be fun! Time to right the ship.

[million2one]

3/9:

Straight Bet 40: New York Knicks (+4.5) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

System Bet 36: New York Knicks (+6) risking 1.4 units to win 1 unit

Looks like a big night could be in the making tonight.
I am liking this Knicks team and feel the line has not yet caught up to them, so I am going to ride the wave.
The other two games, I would take a long look at Denver and see them winning outright, and the Lake Show seems like a gift.
How could anyone take the Heat with the way they are playing, good luck if you are, but I say Lakers roll.
I really think there is value with the Lakers at -2. Yes I said value with the Lakers, this rarely ever happens.

I may add more units to this Knicks play, just wanted to post before the line moves again.



3/11:

Straight Bet 41: New York Knicks (+6) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

System Bet 37: New York Knicks (+7) risking 1.3 units to win 1 unit

[million2one]

YTD: Numbers are red hot right now going 5 - 0 in my last 5 plays

Straight Bets = 22 - 17 - 1 for +3.55 units

System Bets = 24 - 11 - 1 for +19.8 units

[BigJ]

Nice work man!

I laid off the Knicks. I could KICK myself!


Anyway, keep up the good work!

[million2one]

Adding a play for the night cap. Just gonna chill and enjoy LAL v MIA

3/10:

Straight Bet 42: Denver Nuggets (+4) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

[million2one]

3/10:

Straight Bet 41: New York Knicks (+6) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

System Bet 37: New York Knicks (+7) risking 1.3 units to win 1 unit

3/10:

Straight Bet 42: Denver Nuggets (+4) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Everybody gets their ass handed to them at some point and I got rocked last night taking the Knicks.
At least I had Denver to soften the blow a little bit.
Nothing today for the system bet, but I am going to make a small bet with Golden St. I must be crazy you say.

Everyone in the world is on Orlando but the line will not go above 5, also Orlando was a 10 point favorite at Sac. and now are only 5.
Why such a big change in the line when GSW is not all that better then Sac. If the book wanted they could make Orlando -7 and still get a majority of the action on Orlando, but why aren't they.

I would think Orlando wins easily tonight at first look, but the numbers and the line may be telling a different story.
Should be a fun Friday night at Oracle.

3/11:

Straight Bet 43: Golden St. Warriors (+5) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

[million2one]

YTD:

Straight Bets = 23 - 18 - 1 for +3.45 units

System Bets = 24 - 12 - 1 for +18.5 units

[million2one]

3/11:

Straight Bet 43: Golden St. Warriors (+5) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Wow, wish I could have watched that game. Those are the games that make me have a soft spot for G. State.

The clear play for today has to be Memphis getting 8.
With just a simple look you will see that Miami is 12 - 20 ATS at home while Memphis is 22-12 ATS on the road.
In fact Memphis is 22 - 8 ATS as a dog this year. I am not one for trends, but all of them seem to favor Memphis and the points here.

Good Luck all, I will be taking a hiatus next week, so the plays are going to be few and far between from here on out.

3/12:


Straight Bet 44: Memphis Grizzlies (+8) risking 2.2 units to win 2 units

[million2one]

YTD:

Straight Bets = 24 - 18 - 1 for +4.45 units

System Bets = 24 - 12 - 1 for +18.5 units

[million2one]

3/12:

Straight Bet 44: Memphis Grizzlies (+8) risking 2.2 units to win 2 units

Got a little greedy going for the 2 unit win and got rocked. I was playing with house money so I went for it.
Got a nice play for today that is going to round out the system. This is most likely going to be the last play in this thread.
Taking a break and when I return I will be sketchy about playing the last few weeks of the season when teams have packed it in.
Thread has been a success though and I look forward to next year.
Gonna start gearing up for March Madness, Basketball playoffs, and the MLB season (I will prolly have a thread there)
Good luck to all the rest of the way out.

Feel free to post in this thread whenever and whatever. Just no


3/13:

System Bet 38: Milwaukee Bucks (+10) risking 2.8 units to win 2 units

[freeagent]

Congrats man it's been a success, thanks for all the plays ! Let's capitalize on the playoffs if we can NHL and NBA.