Being Roag Part 2 - $200 to $10,000 in 6 months

[BL]

hey Roag, just stopped by to check your project progress. nice work, keep it up

[aunty jack]

Thanks guys. Once the Mercury lost to the Mystics the other night, this became a situation that happens in the NBA and WNBA only a few times a season. You just have to drop the big bomb every once in awhile when these types of games come up.

now that was a bomb that would've made oppenheimer proud.

well done on the mercury call... and the 24hrs notice that gave me plenty of time to ponder the pick before tailing.

cheers.

[alias69]

well done roag, slowly but surely. patience is a wonderful tool. pick ur spots mate.

[RoagBettor]

My "Going Roag" record is actually very good (I don't keep track, but I hit some huge bets last year especially NFL teasers); the problem is that even if I hit 99 out of 100 of them, it only takes that one loss to destroy the project. So yes, Money Management is the key to success.

With that being said, now that the project account has some breathing room it's time to chip away for a few days to reach the $2,000 goal by July 15. However, that date is not firm, I will not risk the project to meet the goal by then.

With no World Cup today, I will have at least one play in the Norway Tippeligaen league (starts at noon Eastern time). I follow this league pretty closely and see a couple of matches that have some value.

[RoagBettor]

Play #69:

Norway Tippeligaen League

7/4/2010 12:00 PM Norway Soccer 228 Odd (NOR-T)/Viking (NOR-T)* Over 2½ -135 (5Dimes)

$135 to win $100

Note: This will be the only play of the day

[goldseeker]

excellent job, good luck today!

[a4u2fear]

congrats on the big cash Roag. It's been great following you. Keep up the good work and thanks for the winners!

[RoagBettor]

LOL I pick the one soccer match in Norway today that won't have any goals! These teams are both scoring machines, it figures!

[RoagBettor]

I knew it, every match in Norway Tippeligaen has at least 1 goal except this one! The gambling gods always get back at you!

[sidewinder66]

sorry about today, but this is an interesting project you have here and you already have progressed nicely. good luck for the future

[RoagBettor]

Well it came close, Viking scored 2 in the 2H but Odd couldn't even get a goal today. Oh well.

[RoagBettor]

Play #69:

Norway Tippeligaen League

7/4/2010 12:00 PM Norway Soccer 228 Odd (NOR-T)/Viking (NOR-T)* Over 2½ -135 (5Dimes)

$135 to win $100

Note: This will be the only play of the day

Viking scores a third goal late in the 2H for the win!

[smcc716]

Viking scores a third goal late in the 2H for the win!

Way to go Roag!!! I also played Tromso to win, so this covered my loss and then some!!!

[RoagBettor]

Way to go Roag!!! I also played Tromso to win, so this covered my loss and then some!!!

Great! I don't normally like to pay that much juice on a soccer match, but I will in certain leagues such as this one. I'm still surprised Odd didn't get a goal, but I don't care how it cashes.

Starting Project Balance: $200.00
Current Project Balance: $1,218.82
Record: 37-31-1

[RoagBettor]

LOL and go figure, Odd scores!

[dume walker]

Viking scores a third goal late in the 2H for the win!

Talk about blind tailing. Now you've got me betting on Norwegian soccer?! Had no idea who I was getting down on, where you track the game or what the final score was. Just know I got home, checked 5 Dimes and found out I cashed. Thanks for the winner, Roag!

[RoagBettor]

Talk about blind tailing. Now you've got me betting on Norwegian soccer?! Had no idea who I was getting down on, where you track the game or what the final score was. Just know I got home, checked 5 Dimes and found out I cashed. Thanks for the winner, Roag!

LOL yeah once World Cup is over I'll be betting some even lesser-known leagues like Poland, Romania and Czech Republic. I can find some pretty interesting (fixed?) matches with them from time to time and have hit quite a few bets this year at +200 odds or better.

I use www.flashscore.com when I'm on my laptop and the Futbol24 iPhone app on my phone, it's great.

Glad you made some money today also!

[JohnnyD4916]

Good Job today!!

[alias69]

well done roag,i actually had Viking to win. keep it up mate.

[ZXCVBNM]

Just read the thread all the way through, and enjoyed it!

Good luck Roag, although I'm sure you won't need at as you know your stuff!

[phillybadboy]

i see your project number is growing

[vinnysantos]

I will be following you from here

[JBT]

LOL yeah once World Cup is over I'll be betting some even lesser-known leagues like Poland, Romania and Czech Republic. I can find some pretty interesting (fixed?) matches with them from time to time and have hit quite a few bets this year at +200 odds or better.

I use www.flashscore.com when I'm on my laptop and the Futbol24 iPhone app on my phone, it's great.

Glad you made some money today also!

How do you know whether a match is fixed so you don't get burned by betting on the team that "should" win otherwise? Or in other words, how do you find fixed matches so you can bet on the fix too?

Anyway, great progress! Keep it up!

[TeamTT]

Interesting so many matches can be fixed so easily, esp with prop plays in cricket n rugby, do u bet on these sports Roag?

[Duby]

Wow your doing great!!!

[RoagBettor]

How do you know whether a match is fixed so you don't get burned by betting on the team that "should" win otherwise? Or in other words, how do you find fixed matches so you can bet on the fix too?

Anyway, great progress! Keep it up!

Thanks everyone for all the kind words and support!
Now, to answer your question.

It's impossible to know if a match is really fixed or not, but I look for 2 things:

1. Significant line discrepancy at certain books
2. Significant line movement in one direction, particularly just before the match starts.

This system has worked well for me, especially after reading this book:

http://www.howtofixasoccergame.com/

[RoagBettor]

Interesting so many matches can be fixed so easily, esp with prop plays in cricket n rugby, do u bet on these sports Roag?

Haven't gotten into cricket or rugby...yet!

[JBT]

Thanks Roag, I might read it myself as well, should I ever feel like reading a book again that is What percentage of soccer matches played (in the first leagues of Central/Western/Northern European countries) would you say are rigged?

[Wilforth]

Roag,

Congrats! Keep it up!

[paul8888]

congrats roag, bol to you on your journey! and wil, havent seen u postin too many plays in mlb lately.. taking a break bro??

[Bull_Shark]

WTF is doing with that line for the Pho vs LA game ? Mercury -1.5 ?

I had them pegged at -5

is there a problem with Taurasi ?

[RoagBettor]

WTF is doing with that line for the Pho vs LA game ? Mercury -1.5 ?

I had them pegged at -5

is there a problem with Taurasi ?

Not sure, but Mercury played better when Taurasi was on the bench against the Mystics. She had like 80 turnovers and is not playing well this year. The Sparks as bad as they are could win this game.

Now ask yourself why San Antonio, one of the worst teams, opens up favored over one of the best teams (the Sun)? That's the game right there.

[RoagBettor]

Thanks Roag, I might read it myself as well, should I ever feel like reading a book again that is What percentage of soccer matches played (in the first leagues of Central/Western/Northern European countries) would you say are rigged?

It's impossible to put a percentage on it, but we know it happens all the time. Let's face it, if a lowly Eastern European team can split 50K by fixing a match, that's more than some of these guys make in a full season. Even the larger leagues have fixes including EPL. Just look at Italian leagues (Series A/B), it's a joke when everyone knows the match will be a draw and the odds for the draw are ridiculously low.

I have seen it happen in Romania, Turkey, Czech Republic and Poland quite often. The only problem is sometimes it's hard to bet the match because you don't know if they are playing to draw or if one team is to lose outright. If there is a heavy favorite involved, you can bet the underdog to both win and draw, so you would make the difference if one of those results happens.

[Bull_Shark]

Now ask yourself why San Antonio, one of the worst teams, opens up favored over one of the best teams (the Sun)? That's the game right there.

Not such a surprise to me that one, had the game marked as a pk

[RoagBettor]

Not such a surprise to me that one, had the game marked as a pk

Yeah, Stars have regained some market value with Hammon getting back into shape.