Lakers will win 2 out of 3 in Boston.

[osker600]

Boston wins game 3, and frm thr who knows!!

[cashman]

Go boston........................

[lakerboy]

This is my thread and im not here to argue with everyone. I said Lakers are gonna win 2 of 3 in Boston. IF you like Boston to win 2 of 3 at home you lay -350 to win x amount of points. If you dont like it then move on.

[HoulihansTX]

This is my thread and im not here to argue with everyone. I said Lakers are gonna win 2 of 3 in Boston. IF you like Boston to win 2 of 3 at home you lay -350 to win x amount of points. If you dont like it then move on.

If what you say is going to happen, then why do we have to lay juice?

Celtics wont even be -200 ML favorites in any home game.

Looks like knowingly you made a line that no one would touch.

From your perspective, Lakers winning 2 out of 3 is at a higher probability. So we should be getting + odds.

[SimonBarSinister]

Lakerboy you will lose..simon says its wrong you choose

dont come and cry when lakers die

[brooks85]

price is way too steep

[MrSink]

lol

[HoulihansTX]

Lakerboy you will lose..simon says its wrong you choose dont come and cry when lakers die

ya he was also convinced the cavs would beat boston...

Everyone has been wrong on this forum more times than they will admit.

My comment is an actual question.

No need to bash, if he has a lean on the series he is entitled to it.

But I still think the juice on the lean is ridiculous.

[lakerboy]

If what you say is going to happen, then why do we have to lay juice?

Celtics wont even be -200 ML favorites in any home game.

Looks like knowingly you made a line that no one would touch.

From your perspective, Lakers winning 2 out of 3 is at a higher probability. So we should be getting + odds.

Yeah im gonna give you +odds on the team that has 3 home games. Okay.


Tell me the fair odds.

[HoulihansTX]

They aren't -350

[WiseGrumpy]

I said this before, if I would not bet against the Celtics these playoffs my plays would hit over 80% so no doubt I have some trouble with "trusting" the Celtics and before I know it they might even win it all. Anyway if I look at the series purely in a basketball standpoint, the Lakers are better, the Celtics are not a very good home team, and the Lakers should have won game 2. I don't have a bet on game 3 yet, but I still think the Lakers win it all.

[lakerboy]

They aren't -350

Okay so tell me the fair line.

[HoulihansTX]

Every game will have a line priced at practically a PK.

No more than -180.

Anything over -200 is ridiculous, when the team is not even heavy favorites to win a game at home. Plus, they arent even favorites to win the series.

The opening odds for the Lakers to win the series to win the series werent even -200

[lakerboy]

Every game will have a line priced at practically a PK.

No more than -180.

Anything over -200 is ridiculous, when the team is not even heavy favorites to win a game at home. Plus, they arent even favorites to win the series.

The opening odds for the Lakers to win the series to win the series werent even -200

Simple question for you Houli. Do you think Boston will win 2 of 3 at home? Answer that first please.

[magic8ball]

-270 seems to me like I would not want to touch it either way.

[PAULYPOKER]

The Lakers are not dead by any means you people are ridiculous,, now I see how Vegas takes your money because when the Lakers blew them out the first game everybody was calling a sweep and now the Celtics do the same to the Lakers and everybody is calling Boston in 5 all in the while you are so fukkin blind because you didn't even notice how quick the tide could turn from one game to the next,,all I know is the world is full of stupid people and I'm very thankful I am not one of them......Holy Fukk you guys are as easy as stealing candy from a baby..............

[WiseGrumpy]

The Lakers are not dead by any means you people are ridiculous,, now I see how Vegas takes your money because when the Lakers blew them out the first game everybody was calling a sweep and now the Celtics do the same to the Lakers and everybody is calling Boston in 5 all in the while you are so fukkin blind because you didn't even notice how quick the tide could turn from one game to the next,,all I know is the world is full of stupid people and I'm very thankful I am not one of them......Holy Fukk you guys are as easy as stealing candy from a baby..............

lol ... must say in a more relaxed way it's true to all aspects of life not only sport gamblers. One day person X is a king the next day person X is nothing ... That's the world we live in. And the NBA is THE league that things like this happen. And with the Celtics it happened a lot in this year's playoffs. One game they BLOW OUT and the next one they get BLOWN OUT.

[Snowball]

right now the ML on gm3 is Boston -145.. say we cap 4 and 5 with a slight edge to Boston as favs, say -120 but no higher because it would be unusual for Boston to take all 3.
gm 3: -145 (.69/1)
gm 4: -120 (.83/1)
gm 5: -120 (.83/1)

now, at 1-1 minus 10% vig, (.9/1) is even probability. Thus game 3 is (.9 - .69=.21/.9 =23.3)
a 23.3% higher probability for Boston to win. Games 4,5 at -120 are (.9 -.83= .07/.9 =7.7) a 7.7% higher probability for Boston. All being equal if games had 50/50 chance, occurance for one team to win 2 of 3 is still 50% per, because 1 of 2, then SOMEONE has to win the 3rd game. So what we do is apply the average of Boston's favorability ratings 23.3, 7.7, 7.7.. (23.3+7.7+7.7= 38.7 / 3 =12.9)..
thus there is a 12.9% higher chance per game that Boston wins.
So, for the Lakers to take 2 of 3, game 3 would be +113 and game 4 or 5 (2nd win) would be +113 +12.9% for +127.5...... round that up to +128 --- together this payout is 113+128=+241
the flip side of which is (113=13 over 100 or .87) =(-115) + (128=28 over 100 or .72 =(-139)
add -115 and -139 = -254.

thus the appropriate odds for Boston bettor to lay that Lakers will not win 2 in Boston is -254 (.3937) = $3.94 per $10 bet.

[SRBI]

right now the ML on gm3 is Boston -145.. say we cap 4 and 5 with a slight edge to Boston as favs, say -120 but no higher because it would be unusual for Boston to take all 3.
gm 3: -145 (.69/1)
gm 4: -120 (.83/1)
gm 5: -120 (.83/1)

now, at 1-1 minus 10% vig, (.9/1) is even probability. Thus game 3 is (.9 - .69=.21/.9 =23.3)
a 23.3% higher probability for Boston to win. Games 4,5 at -120 are (.9 -.83= .07/.9 =7.7) a 7.7% higher probability for Boston. All being equal if games had 50/50 chance, occurance for one team to win 2 of 3 is still 50% per, because 1 of 2, then SOMEONE has to win the 3rd game. So what we do is apply the average of Boston's favorability ratings 23.3, 7.7, 7.7.. (23.3+7.7+7.7= 38.7 / 3 =12.9)..
thus there is a 12.9% higher chance per game that Boston wins.
So, for the Lakers to take 2 of 3, game 3 would be +113 and game 4 or 5 (2nd win) would be +113 +12.9% for +127.5...... round that up to +128 --- together this payout is 113+128=+241
the flip side of which is (113=13 over 100 or .87) =(-115) + (128=28 over 100 or .72 =(-139)
add -115 and -139 = -254.

thus the appropriate odds for Boston bettor to lay that Lakers will not win 2 in Boston is -254 (.3937) = $3.94 per $10 bet.

[SRBI]

[magic8ball]

Nice job snowball. I did some quick gazintas in my head and came up with -270ish, so I wasn't too far off without using my abacus. Good to know the mellon still works.

[Snowball]

Nice job snowball. I did some quick gazintas in my head and came up with -270ish, so I wasn't too far off without using my abacus. Good to know the mellon still works.

you were 94.07% correct off the top of your head

[jresse]

there is no way that the series does not go to at least a game 6

[goduke]

Im just going to sit back and watch the celtics win. plus i dont really have that many points lol

[MexicanStallion]

you were 94.07% correct off the top of your head

Freak! Joking. Nice work on the math skills. I have no idea how accurate you are, but you know your stuff.

I would probably lean towards Boston taking 2/3 games in Boston. I think -350 is too steep. I would just go with what the two posters here did and just look at -255 to -265 range. Just observations.

[Unicorn7]

Lakerboy you will lose..simon says its wrong you choose

dont come and cry when lakers die

..pretty funny..I do think celtics win the series too..Im glad they took game #2 it added some zest to the series

[Doon88]

888

i am just going to say that Boston will be champions......In what number of games.......that is the question...

[Mikail]

The Lakers are not dead by any means you people are ridiculous,, now I see how Vegas takes your money because when the Lakers blew them out the first game everybody was calling a sweep and now the Celtics do the same to the Lakers and everybody is calling Boston in 5 all in the while you are so fukkin blind because you didn't even notice how quick the tide could turn from one game to the next,,all I know is the world is full of stupid people and I'm very thankful I am not one of them......Holy Fukk you guys are as easy as stealing candy from a baby..............

That is just it. People have short attention spans. Lakers win big in game 1 and everyone is calling for a sweep. Now the Celtics steal game 2 in LA and everyone is calling for the Celtics to win. Books love bettors who think this way.

[Goat Milk]

Yeah the line should not be -350. You came out and made a bold statement so just entice them with a nice line if you're confident.

[chimp]

That is just it. People have short attention spans. Lakers win big in game 1 and everyone is calling for a sweep. Now the Celtics steal game 2 in LA and everyone is calling for the Celtics to win. Books love bettors who think this way.

didn't this way of thinking work in the atl/orl series? cha/orl? lal/utah? phx/sas?

[lakerboy]

Okay i will give -250. Nothing better.

[Snowball]

back in January i bet my whole point wad on Missouri ML.. they were a 10-pt favorite
it was 1000 points I amassed in 2-3 months since joining SBR in November.
they lost.. and since then I just blow my daily points in the casino.
Thinking about taking points seriously again.. for Christmas gift cards.

I would take this bet but don't have enough points to make it worth bothering..

[gryfyn1]

Whoever wants to bet me let me know and what you think should be fair odds. I will start taking bets on Monday morning. Think twice before you make your bets though cause you will lose. As an early starter my price for Boston backers is -350 at least. So if you take Boston to win 2 games ( out of 3 at home)you have to take -350 at least.

So your so sure the Lakers will win two you are giving them ~22% chance ?

[7secondsOrLess]

hi snowball

[Nomocino]

Lakers looked spent midway through the 1st quarter travling crose country wont help mstters any Celtics smell blood