Sj55 nba playoff picks

**sweetjones55** · 04-21-10, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by fly fisher

Well, I hope it is like yesterday and you don't need that point cuz I am in at +3.5 like Dexter. I don't have a half time line yet, but will take it if it is at +1.5 or +2.

Good luck all.

Don't worry fly. I don't plan on hitting this with the Spurs losing by 4 points, it's just a cushion. I wouldn't go heavy on a +3.5 line unless I thought my team was going to win straight up.

**lakerboy** · 04-21-10, 09:48 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

yeah, buying pts in the playoffs makes sense with all these sharp lines. books dont make mistakes on some games like they might with a full slate of nba/ncaa....

then again, there is a full slate of baseball....i wonder if certain managers are hired for each sport to move lines/track action.

ive said it before - would love for sbr to get a Q/A going with a sportsbook manager one day. though im sure they wouldnt be completely honest about how things work behind the scenes.

they had a video with the headlinesman from legends a few months back

**sweetjones55** · 04-21-10, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

they had a video with the headlinesman from legends a few months back

I wouldn't trust a word a sportsbook manager would say. At the end of the day they want to take all of your money + more. Here is that video LB is talking about

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5pglQN5O4M

http://www.mysportsarbitragebetting.com/interview-head-linesman-legends-sportsbook

**lakerboy** · 04-21-10, 09:54 AM

Hey sj before the series started with dallas/spurs i was of the opinion that dallas would win in 5-6 games and what i saw in game 1 did nothing to change my mind. The problem remains the same for the spurs- they have no answer for dirk just like last year in the series. Now obviously the books are of the opinion that the spurs are gonna win this game ( not only cover but win) and have handed out a smaller line than in game 1 to attract more lopsided action on the mavericks. In the next 45 minutes the line will come down to 3 i suppose but im not sold on the spurs being able to win tonight. Convince me.

**lakerboy** · 04-21-10, 09:55 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

I wouldn't trust a word a sportsbook manager would say. At the end of the day they want to take all of your money + more. Here is that video LB is talking about

http://www.mysportsarbitragebetting....nds-sportsbook

I agree but having a head linesman on here means nothing to any of us.

**Van G** · 04-21-10, 10:00 AM

radio edit

**sweetjones55** · 04-21-10, 10:07 AM

Good luck tonight on your plays Van G

**lakerboy** · 04-21-10, 10:10 AM

Oh okay i didnt see your post. Got it thanks.

**sweetjones55** · 04-21-10, 10:12 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Hey sj before the series started with dallas/spurs i was of the opinion that dallas would win in 5-6 games and what i saw in game 1 did nothing to change my mind. The problem remains the same for the spurs- they have no answer for dirk just like last year in the series. Now obviously the books are of the opinion that the spurs are gonna win this game ( not only cover but win) and have handed out a smaller line than in game 1 to attract more lopsided action on the mavericks. In the next 45 minutes the line will come down to 3 i suppose but im not sold on the spurs being able to win tonight. Convince me.

Honestly I thought SA did a good job defending him last game. They got a hand in his face every shot and did the best they could do. Dirk was just too hot that night and nobody on the planet could stop him.

These have been Dirks FG% vs SA this year thusfar, 51%, 35%, 40% and 86% (last game). He had to shoot 86% for the Mavericks to just cover by one measley point. I see him shooting in the mid 40% tonight and the Spurs getting the cover. It's also not that crazy IMO to think that Dirk just might have an off game. It's hard to couple a historic night like he had with another one back to back.

Gregg Popovich is coaching the Spurs and he is the best defensive mind in the NBA IMO bar none. I trust him as a coach to have a great defensive plan on Dirk. Also, we got two refs who heavily favor road teams tonight reffing so that's another +.

**rvfrank** · 04-21-10, 10:15 AM

SJ im taking the over 186 1.5u @ the orlando game along with the spurs x1 at tipoff. BOL.

**lakerboy** · 04-21-10, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Honestly I thought SA did a good job defending him last game. They got a hand in his face every shot and did the best they could do. Dirk was just too hot that night and nobody on the planet could stop him.

These have been Dirks FG% vs SA this year thusfar, 51%, 35%, 40% and 86% (last game). He had to shoot 86% for the Mavericks to just cover by one measley point. I see him shooting in the mid 40% tonight and the Spurs getting the cover. It's also not that crazy IMO to think that Dirk just might have an off game. It's hard to couple a historic night like he had with another one back to back.

Gregg Popovich is coaching the Spurs and he is the best defensive mind in the NBA IMO bar none. I trust him as a coach to have a great defensive plan on Dirk. Also, we got two refs who heavily favor road teams tonight reffing so that's another +.

Okay im convinced- Spurs it is.

**sweetjones55** · 04-21-10, 10:46 AM

Oklahoma City -145 ML NBA GAME OF THE YEAR LOCKED

**BamaCBass** · 04-21-10, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

ive said it before - would love for sbr to get a Q/A going with a sportsbook manager one day. though im sure they wouldnt be completely honest about how things work behind the scenes.

This ^^^^^^^

That would be awesome! Does anyone know of any websites or books or articles discussing the ins & outs of oddsmaking and some of the inside scoop?

**trojanman** · 04-21-10, 03:42 PM

Hey Sweet.....unless I missed it you never "locked" the charlotte lean you had nor the over although it sounded like you were very close, especially with the over............no play for you or are you still thinking that one through?

thanks for the insight this thread is giving us..........i seem to fall into traps but now seeing how to avoid them!

**smcc716** · 04-21-10, 03:46 PM

Anyone know SJ's record for the regular season?? Just curious?

**S.K.M.** · 04-21-10, 04:04 PM

GL tonight SJ

**Smogs** · 04-21-10, 04:16 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Oklahoma City -145 ML NBA GAME OF THE YEAR LOCKED

Love the confidence, good luck

Originally posted by smcc716

Anyone know SJ's record for the regular season?? Just curious?

Why don't you ask him, it's his thread

**smcc716** · 04-21-10, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

Love the confidence, good luck

Why don't you ask him, it's his thread

I tried, didn't get a reply back. Wasn't sure if there was a link with that info? Sometimes others keep track of things like that as well.

**Smogs** · 04-21-10, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by smcc716

I tried, didn't get a reply back. Wasn't sure if there was a link with that info? Sometimes others keep track of things like that as well.

Trust me dude, this guy is good. There is a select few on this forum who you tail and this guy is one of them.

I made a killing on football tonight, so i'm slapping half a unit on SA ML

BL · 04-21-10, 04:28 PM

the thing with the "good" refs for the spurs is toast
I looked at the refs numbers and besides they have great numbers for a small homefav todays refs were already reffing dallas-spurs games in the last year.
Dallas covered all 4 and won SU.

**sweetjones55** · 04-21-10, 04:28 PM

Smog, I am 154-106-4 (59%) total for the NBA so far this year.

**smcc716** · 04-21-10, 04:35 PM

Thanks for the reply!! Appreciate your work! Was just curious as to how your complete season went. Good luck this evening as well!

**sweetjones55** · 04-21-10, 04:38 PM

Just wanted to post my writeup in here for OKC ML tomorrow. I created a seperate thread for it.

OKC ML -145 NBA GAME OF THE YEAR LOCKED Ok so the Lakers roll into OKC tomorrow night with a 2-0 lead in the series. The first game wasn't very competitve in LA. The Lakers built up a quick lead in the 1st quarter and never relinquished it winning the game by 8 points. Game 2 was a very different story, the Thunder did not come out as nervous and competed with the Lakers til the very end. The Thunder had a great chance to pull of the upset despite Westbrook being in foul trouble all game.

The line opened up as Thunder -2. This is the first time in OKC history they are favored vs the Lakers. Their past home lines vs LAL were +1, +7.5, +7.5. The Thunder were +1 on 3/26/2010 and won the game outright 91-75. According to SportsInsights Paid Subscription, the public is hot on the Lakers at around 60%. The line has responded to the public on LA by going from -2 OKC to -3.5, big 1.5 point reverse line movement.

The NBA does not want this series to end quickly. They want to see more of KD vs Kobe because it is good for the ratings and every NBA fan loves watching this matchup.I fully expect OKC to get a ton of calls. Ron Artest has done A TON of HOLDING on Durant this seires. The refs are not going to let that fly in OKC and I see Artest getting in foul trouble very quickly and having to be a lot less aggressive defensively with Durant.

OKC has obviously lost their last two games in a row. They have not lost three games in a row since late January. That is three months since they last lost 3 in a row.

Ok here is the clincher for me on this game. I went back to check out how these current Lakers fared after going up 2-0 in a playoff series. These are the game 3's on the road for the Laker results after going up 2-0.

4-23-2009 @ UTAH 88-86 LOSS
6-9-2009 @ ORL 108-104 LOSS
4-26-2008 @ DEN 102-84 WIN (Lakers swept them, this Den team was way worse than OKC)
5-9-2009 @ UTAH 104-99 LOSS
5-25-200 @ SA 104-83 LOSS

Why am I taking ML -145? Vegas has been so sharp and if you look at those losses above you will notice that a few of the games were realtively close. I lost a huge play on Bulls -1.5 the other night and swore that the next game I love I would take ML. I do not want to risk taking the spread and having OKC win and me lose or not win anything at all.

Here are some interesting quotes I found. I find the first one to be very interesting. Kobe is admitting this will be a tough series. He said this after game 2. That immediately implies to me that OKC probably won't go down 0-3.

"It felt good," Bryant said. "They had our attention. We know it’s going to be a tough series."

"I'm getting the looks I want, they're just not falling," said Green, who finished just 2-for-11 shooting and 1-for-6 from 3-point range after going 4-for-12 the previous game. "But I'm still confident in my shot and I'm going to continue to shoot them and they're going to drop when I go home."

Game 3 will be in Oklahoma City on Thursday and will be no easy task.
"That place is going to be rocking and rolling," Bryant said. "These young guys play with a lot of energy here so multiply that by 10. The last time [a 91-75 loss] we were up there they did a number on us. We are well aware of what they are capable of and how explosive they are. It's going to be exciting."

**Smogs** · 04-21-10, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Smog, I am 154-106-4 (59%) total for the NBA so far this year.

Unreal

**sweetjones55** · 04-21-10, 05:59 PM

Good luck tonight to everyone on their plays.

**Goat Milk** · 04-21-10, 07:27 PM

Bryant is the master of talking to reporters. He will never give ANYONE any indication of his teams struggles or massive success. He will never look down upon a team, he doesn't take anything for granted. Although OKC might be the play in game 3, get that Bryant comment out of your head.

**BamaCBass** · 04-21-10, 11:12 PM

That's what I'm MF-in talkin bout Sweet! That's sick bro. Nice work! Dude posting that message earlier today sealed the deal. Wanted to take out a flippin loan...

**trojanman** · 04-21-10, 11:13 PM

Damn....sweet!

U on fire! Very nice - you telling us how these games gonna go before they start! Enjoyed that - great job.

**sweetjones55** · 04-21-10, 11:51 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Spurs +4.5 -125 HEAVY LOCKED
Spurs 1H +2 LOCKED

The last two home lines Dallas has received vs SA were -4 and -5. Tonight after Dalls winning both of those games the oddsmaker goes out and gives a line of -4 which quickly goes down to -3 despite public pounding of Dallas?

Dirk Nowitzki had the game of his career last game shooting like 95% and just playing perfectly all around. SA was double/triple teaming him and he was finding the open man everytime for uncontested 3's. Now with all this being said, Dallas only covered the spread by 1 point despite it being Dirk's best NBA game to date. The line movement is very telling as it's very obvious that Vegas wants as much money on SA as possible, just like LA yest. I think the Spurs win this one outright tonight.

We got two of the best road team refs in the NBA. James Capers is 37-29 ATS for road teams, Mauer is 36-27 for the road team. Mauer is the 9th best ref for road teams and Capers is the 12 the best ref for road teams out of 67 refs.

Just as I thought, the Spurs come through with a big double digit win as the road dog! Another perfect 2-0 night tonight after a 2-0 night last night!!

I am now 10-1-1(91%) my last 12 NBA plays!!

**doctor_on_call** · 04-22-10, 12:04 AM

thanks for the play sj55. way to cut my debts.

**brumbies** · 04-22-10, 12:51 AM

How many units is your game of the year worth? I am guessing 10?

**sweetjones55** · 04-22-10, 12:59 AM

Originally posted by brumbies

How many units is your game of the year worth? I am guessing 10?

My unit scale is 1-5 normally. I am risking 15 on OKC ML -145.

**sweetjones55** · 04-22-10, 01:05 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Thanks, when I get hot I stay hot so look out tomorrow.

Originally posted by Dexter

we know we know sweetjones....we've heard this line before.

4-0 now since that comment I made with two heavy winners cashing,

**QUEST001** · 04-22-10, 01:06 AM

congrats SJ... your on fire..your killin it..Keep it up.Don't fade SJ now!!

Spurs...

**7secondsOrLess** · 04-22-10, 02:41 AM