HOw much time do you CAPPPERS spend capping games?

[GiveMeaBJ]

Typically scan down the card. Write down games that stick out at first glance. The ones I know I want to play, I play, the ones I am not so sure I look into. Probably 20 minutes.

[TGoat]

I can't figure out any mathematical solutions for NBA. This is the only math quizz to me, which I don't cap, cause I don't know what to consider. What are your preferences when capping NBA?

There are literally millions of iterations that you could apply to system handicapping.

I believe in keeping it extremely simple.

If I were to tell you what my system is comprised of you would be astounded. A typical reply might be, "you're kidding...that's it!"

[Durrrr]

About the same as LB.

[AzNDooM]

Here is another reason I don't put units next to my plays. Let's say I like two games and I grade the first one (1x) and the other one (4x). To my way of thinking that 4x play would have to be four times stronger than the 1x play. Realisticly, that almost never happens.

A more realistic gradation might be something like 1x, 1.2.x, 1.4x, etc.

If you think a team has a 55% of winning a game and give it say, (1x), then how much of a chance should a team have if you rate it (5x)? 275%??? No, it would be more like, oh, 65%. It has a 10% greater likelyhood of winning in your opinion, but you're risking 5 times as much money.

That doesn't make any sense to me.

Your assumption is correct and I have made that adjustments. Normally, everyone on SBR uses unit adjustments of 1 UNIT = $100. I dont play that and factor .25 into my plays. Hence, when deciding bets i never go 5x or 1x as thats ridicolous, more realistic max of say 3x if u feel quite confident on a 1x play. Or 0.5x comparatively to 1 etc.. hence that how I grade.

[benjy]

Here is another reason I don't put units next to my plays. Let's say I like two games and I grade the first one (1x) and the other one (4x). To my way of thinking that 4x play would have to be four times stronger than the 1x play. Realisticly, that almost never happens.

A more realistic gradation might be something like 1x, 1.2.x, 1.4x, etc.

If you think a team has a 55% of winning a game and give it say, (1x), then how much of a chance should a team have if you rate it (5x)? 275%??? No, it would be more like, oh, 65%. It has a 10% greater likelyhood of winning in your opinion, but you're risking 5 times as much money.

That doesn't make any sense to me.

Couldn't you just throw those numbers into the Kelly formula? I've never done it but would be very curious to see what the results would be (e.g. 55% vs 65%, both -110 lines.)

[suicidekings]

Your assumption is correct and I have made that adjustments. Normally, everyone on SBR uses unit adjustments of 1 UNIT = $100. I dont play that and factor .25 into my plays. Hence, when deciding bets i never go 5x or 1x as thats ridicolous, more realistic max of say 3x if u feel quite confident on a 1x play. Or 0.5x comparatively to 1 etc.. hence that how I grade.

Not true. I guarantee there are posters on SBR that have a unit size ranging from much larger than that down to 1unit = $1. Bet size also varies by sport. The same bettor might have an average wager amount several times larger for NFL plays than MLB.

[lakerboy]

If i bet all bets at 1 unit i would be up 23 units in the nba. cause i dont do that im up 87

[whatsgood5]

Usually no more than 30 mins a game for me. But I play a lot of games so that's why

[whatsgood5]

Not true. I guarantee there are posters on SBR that have a unit size ranging from much larger than that down to 1unit = $1. Bet size also varies by sport. The same bettor might have an average wager amount several times larger for NFL plays than MLB.

Good point, very true.

[TGoat]

Couldn't you just throw those numbers into the Kelly formula? I've never done it but would be very curious to see what the results would be (e.g. 55% vs 65%, both -110 lines.)

I've done a lot of work with Kelly, but I'm reluctant to talk about it, because I might be doing it wrong. It's confusing as hell sometimes especially when you want to put it into a spreadsheet to determine bet size. I did a lot of work with Kelly for horseracing, and I never used more than a 1/4 Kelly in actual practice.

Reduced to it's simplest form, Kelly is "edge divided by odds."

But to address your question (and please if I make a mistake someone correct me) if you feel a team will win 65% of the time that would give you a 15% edge. (I could be wrong here.) Wait a minute it might be less than that because you need .5238 to break even so your edge is probably more like...12.62%. (65%-52.38%) At 11/10, which converts to .91 odds, your edge (12.62%) divided by odds (.91) =13.86% of bankroll can be risked. (Nevermind that this is way too high.)

If you think a team has a 55% chance of success, then your edge is .0262% (55%-52.38%) and .0262% divided by .91 =.02879

So, 13.86/2.879=4.81

Bet 1 unit on the 55% shot and 4.81, units on the 65% shot. (I think) This is pretty close to the original estimate of 5 Units.

Assuming my math is correct what this is implies is that the percentages you assign to certain outcomes must be extremely accurate.

Taking it a step further:

90% =14.35 Units
85% =12.45 Units
80% =10.54 Units
75% =8.63 Units
70% =6.27 Units
65% =4.81 Units
62.5% =3.86 Units
60% =2.90 Units
57% =1.76 Units
55% =1.00 Unit

[Shark]

If i bet all bets at 1 unit i would be up 23 units in the nba. cause i dont do that im up 87

Great point right there.

[SolidDala]

I believe in keeping it simple now days, no more then a hour total per day. Important part is to spread that through out the day for maximum feedback and info. Don't play every day, better of waiting for solid plays and try to keep it under 5 plays a day with a higher unit to maximize profit rather then doing 10-15 plays a day with a lower unit and lower win rate!

Personally don't like changing the stake on a 1-5 scale, simply cause the *5 plays ain't gonna hit over 60% over the years, if it would hat off to you sir! That person should be very fortunate and just play BIG on just the *5 with a heck more freetime! An 2-3% interval is what I like, 4-6% when having a lower bankroll and can afford going busted on a losing streak!

Thats just my thoughts of this.