HOw much time do you CAPPPERS spend capping games?

[suicidekings]

Time spent initially building/tweaking my model: 2-3 days
Daily updating of database: Max. 15 minutes
Daily running of model for all games: Max. 10 minutes

From that point on, it's all about watching lines move while doing other things. I spend zero time looking at online stats, trends, injuries & opinion articles. Injuries are extremely overrated as deciding factors in games. Stats and trends can lie, but money always tells the truth.

[JoeC]

INjuries overrated r u kidding me?

[JoeC]

Tell that to the people who take the over for heat/hawks last night. Crawford 2nd highest scorer on atlanta but yeah injuries don't matter

[suicidekings]

INjuries overrated r u kidding me?

Absolutely. It happens all the time.

How much were the Warriors affected last night with Ellis & Maggette out, despite being dogs against the shitty Clippers?
How did the Lakers suffer without Kobe & Bynum against the Spurs? LAL -2.5 at home against ANYONE? Are you kidding me? I capped a fair line for that game at LAL -10...

Both lines were overadjusted to compensate for injuries...

[suicidekings]

Tell that to the people who take the over for heat/hawks last night. Crawford 2nd highest scorer on atlanta but yeah injuries don't matter

Crawford or no Crawford, that game was going under...

[TGoat]

Absolutely. It happens all the time.

How much were the Warriors affected last night with Ellis & Maggette out, despite being dogs against the shitty Clippers?
How did the Lakers suffer without Kobe & Bynum against the Spurs? LAL -2.5 at home against ANYONE? Are you kidding me?

Both lines were overadjusted to compensate for injuries...

I agree with you. Remember that game a few days ago when Denver was missing a starter? The line jumped from 8 to 10. That starter was only worth two points on the line? OK, I guess so. What do I know. Denver pushed by the way.

I think the bookies understand injuries better than anyone else and they adjust the line accordingly.

I can see no advantage one way or the other--it's a wash.

[ron8698]

30 minutes night be4 to see match ups , day of game about 1.5 hrs with match ups and spreads , researching common opponents , ATS , streaks , also input from SBR forum ..

[SpreadSniper]

I USED to look at injuries as a positive factor when taking into account that my play is vs a team who is minus a player. Not the case anymore. I think books LOVE it when a big name player goes down for a while. Public overreacts to injury info. The books know this and push out a line that plays on your feelings that "so and so" is a play because the other team is minus a player.
The sharp bettor knows when to read into these lines and jump on the other side. Thats just my rookie take on it anyway. NOH is a prime example of this atm. I just hope we get more inflated lines due to CP3 being out, but I think vegas will wise up after last game.

[suicidekings]

I agree with you. Remember that game a few days ago when Denver was missing a starter? The line jumped from 8 to 10. That starter was only worth two points on the line? OK, I guess so. What do I know. Denver pushed by the way.

I think the bookies understand injuries better than anyone else and they adjust the line accordingly.

I can see no advantage one way or the other--it's a wash.

One caveat I'll add to what I said above is that team depth does play into injuries to a certain extent, but only with respect to public opinion of a team. Kobe was a great example because way too many people thought they could take advantage of a Kobe-less Laker team, not understanding that while Kobe changes the team dynamic by being on/off the court, there's a very talented and effective team behind the star.

[Brocc]

NFL is always much easier for me, probably a lot of others also. You have all week to compile info, with NBA you have a day if you're lucky. I usually spend about an hour, then check here what the Big Boys are doing and then rate my plays accordingly. But with all the bullshit stats, trends, etc, this place has the BEST information.

[suicidekings]

I USED to look at injuries as a positive factor when taking into account that my play is vs a team who is minus a player. Not the case anymore. I think books LOVE it when a big name player goes down for a while. Public overreacts to injury info. The books know this and push out a line that plays on your feelings that "so and so" is a play because the other team is minus a player.
The sharp bettor knows when to read into these lines and jump on the other side. Thats just my rookie take on it anyway. NOH is a prime example of this atm. I just hope we get more inflated lines due to CP3 being out, but I think vegas will wise up after last game.

Exactly... The Hornets have been a cash cow recently. Collison has replaced CP3 almost seamlessly, but the books have been slanting lines as if the injury made a big difference.

Your "rookie" opinion is pretty damn sharp, SS

[AzNDooM]

I don't want to get too far off topic on this thread, but all of my plays are one unit. I just don't feel most cappers are good enough to apply unit discrepancies to their plays. If you can win betting all selections with one unit, you'll do just fine.

The way I look at it is this: if a game is worth your time to list as a play then it should receive as much action as all of your other plays.

I love Lakerboy like a brother, but if you look closely at his plays he averages about 3.75 units per play. If my system plays were graded at 4 units each I would be right up there with everyone else. You could also divide LB's plays by 4 if you want to see how he is doing vis-a-vis one unit per play.

It's really, really, tough to assign units to individual plays. There are some here, including LB who do it well, but I think most cappers would be well advised to just stick to one unit per play.

TGoat,

I agree w/ you that yes that its great to see you capping a large sample number of games as if its worth your time then each game should be considered the same value due to the same effort you put into each game... as it shows you have great understanding of how to read the handicaps and can make decisions based on your experience and your expertise on any games regardless of whos playing. Shows great depth, analysising and makes your skills at determining what lines should be that much better, however I would like to use UNITS due to money management and in addiiton, im sure you have stronger feels or grades for certains then others. Weaker cards... and hence the reason why I would prefer them as it shows that you have much better understanding at determining when the ODDSMakers have created incorrect lines etc...

In other words it gives me more information, I already know your a consistent capper with a +50% hit ratio and over large sample number of plays you will be positive, my analysis on a capper for you is now to determine how much do you see into a game and based this on the number of units you play.

Thus for example if you had a game CLE vs ORL game and CLE was favourite by -21 to win at they are at home with no injuries on each side to report, obviously any capper could see CLE will easily cover and odds makers have made a major error. (of course this would never happen) but im just using this as an example, hence you would put more UNITS on this play compared to say tonight DENV vs SAS which DENV is -5.5 at the moment based on PINNACLE BOOKS.

Thus, basically your grades of Units will give me another dimension to determine you as a capper and its pretty important for my PR Rankings for Cappers in SBR.

Thus, using real examples, LB is one of the best cappers over large sample of plays. He has excellent understanding of line movement and can cap any game regardless of difficulty of the card given to him and makes correct adjustments on line movements (example on game yesterday where he called on UND 191 when the line pushed down to 189 quickly). Although he may not be right allt he time, his units wager shows his confidence in his graded play and shows that he sees something/feels something others dont. To me that is important and as of late he has shown better control of money management and Unit discipline. (im sure you've noticed). You'll also notice his numbers of plays has reduced and he now is discarding carded games he does not feel even though he caps the leans. (example he called GSW 118-114, which GSW blew up but took the discpline to dsicard the card) as he felt it was a weak play.

Overall, this will make him a better proficient capper and by leaning GSW shows that he was able to make a formal decision but chose not to pick the card due to whatever reason. I factor those in as later on these decisions he will make more crucial.

Respectively, you look at MexicanStallion, he does not have a large sample of plays but rather has discarded majority of calls that have been set by the oddsmakers to the precision that he believes to be correct. If he sees a miscalculation he will make the adjustment to put money on this and put the number of units based on his confidence of play.

THus using last nights example, he discarded 10 games of plays in the NBA as he felt NOH was the better play due to current form of BOS and NOH being a strnog play at home. (im assuming this as he hasnt stated his formulated opinion). He based 5.25 units to win 5 which shows to me hes quite confident on this card out of the 12 and it will cover.

Anycase, I can go on and on about this and each cappers weakness/strengths but at the end of the day, i came to this Forum to learn the skills from each capper and to be able to formulise my decisions in the end.

Its an education to me by coming to this site and I dont want to always be relying on others to make the choices for me, I want to show myself that I can calculate and improve my capping skills... Ive got alot to learn and hence everyone has alot of angles that I cant see.

Im hoping over time, after studying each capper this will help tweak my abilities to cap each games, hence why your units betting is important to me.

[SpreadSniper]

Crazy IQ, phorographic memory AND types 200 words a minute.

[JoeC]

Ok we can play this game son. Feb 3 Wizards/Knicks . Injuries no Al Harrington for Knicks 2nd highest scorer on team and no caron Butler 2nd Highest scorer on team. If you took the over because your dumbass doesn't look at injuries you lost. Feb 3 SUNs/Nuggets No carmelo Anthony highest scorer on denver. If you took the over you lost. HEy last night all the lines were posted early except for the games with possible injuries that can effect the outcome. BUcks/Nets no line because of Harris, Celtics/Hornets NO line because of paul pierce, Jazz/lakers no line because of kobe and bynum, Clippers/ Warriors no line because of ellis/maggette. I wish the books thought like you when it comes to injuries, it would make me a little more money.

[SpreadSniper]

Ok we can play this game son. Feb 3 Wizards/Knicks . Injuries no Al Harrington for Knicks 2nd highest scorer on team and no caron Butler 2nd Highest scorer on team. If you took the over because your dumbass doesn't look at injuries you lost. Feb 3 SUNs/Nuggets No carmelo Anthony highest scorer on denver. If you took the over you lost. HEy last night all the lines were posted early except for the games with possible injuries that can effect the outcome. BUcks/Nets no line because of Harris, Celtics/Hornets NO line because of paul pierce, Jazz/lakers no line because of kobe and bynum, Clippers/ Warriors no line because of ellis/maggette. I wish the books thought like you when it comes to injuries, it would make me a little more money.

I play sides mainly, not totals. I agree with your evaluation, totals are dramatically impacted by injuries. Do your same homework, but for sides and you'll see what we are talking about.

[AzNDooM]

Exactly... The Hornets have been a cash cow recently. Collison has replaced CP3 almost seamlessly, but the books have been slanting lines as if the injury made a big difference.

Your "rookie" opinion is pretty damn sharp, SS

I agree, my initial trend was to bet all games against NOH as last year, when CP3 was injured there stats were staggering w/out CP3, i believe it was 4-13 ( I would have to reference my index to confirm the actual stats).

However, the rookie Collision is proving he can handle the reigns especially after the BOS game and I have had to make my adjustments to this. I originally had heavy bets on ORL to beat NOH and they proved they could cover, and now NOH to beat BOS which I stayed away to observe and confirms my initial LEAN.

Thus, have to throw out that trend of NOH w/out CP3. In addiiton, my rookie rankings for Collision now has moved to 8 overall as hes proving he can play.

[JoeC]

This is mainly for over/unders. But hey if you capped the -10 for the lakers and can get them at -2.5 then make the bet. I think mostly evrybody was saying to take the spurs yesterday because of kobe not playing and some may have not taken the adjustment for the line.. I capped the over/under at 201 with kobe, so without him i should of took the under at 202 but i don't like betting when there is an injury to at least 1 of the 2 top scorers for a team. Thats just a rule of have for myself because you never really know whats gonna happen. Don't wanna come off as a jerk but i need to look at injuries.

[The fiddler]

Dont waste more then a couple of minutes. There is no angle or model that can determine energy level your going to get. Throw trends and such out the window, if your team does not show up, you do not win. Research for 5 minutes, 5 hours or just flip a coin, its all the same.

This.

Anyone that thinks they can beat the NBA, they are fools. Heck, I had the Clippers plus 35 last night and lost.

I win every year in football. And then I torture myself for a few weeks of basketball and then quit.

Besides...the NBA is somewhat fixed. So is college basketball. Refs in college do not understand that the visiting team can actually block a shot without calling a foul.

[AzNDooM]

Ok we can play this game son. Feb 3 Wizards/Knicks . Injuries no Al Harrington for Knicks 2nd highest scorer on team and no caron Butler 2nd Highest scorer on team. If you took the over because your dumbass doesn't look at injuries you lost. Feb 3 SUNs/Nuggets No carmelo Anthony highest scorer on denver. If you took the over you lost. HEy last night all the lines were posted early except for the games with possible injuries that can effect the outcome. BUcks/Nets no line because of Harris, Celtics/Hornets NO line because of paul pierce, Jazz/lakers no line because of kobe and bynum, Clippers/ Warriors no line because of ellis/maggette. I wish the books thought like you when it comes to injuries, it would make me a little more money.

Joe,

Your correct in saying this, SpreadSniper is stating that already but in regards to injuries, ODDSMAKERS like to jump on this as they understand more hten us and analyze mroe then us. I agree, there was no line as they had to wait for injuries and they do play big factors in a game, but how can anyone know that Stephen Curry would step up for the GSW and play like a veteran, how could you determine GASOL/ODOM would tag team well against the Jazz, etc... if you look historically, Spreadsniper is right inregards to the sides and the lines get inflated due to injury. I think thats the main message he is making across, that a line will dramatically change due to injury compared to a O/U value which the affect is more dramatic.

but good valid point though about releasing of odds based on injuries. ODDSMAKERS take in all factors small/big to determine line if you ask me.

[The fiddler]

Kobe being injured was the best thing to happen for the Lakers. Kobe's ball hogging and 30 shots a game kill that team. A lot of merit to Pau Gasol's dicrete bitvhin about Bryant.

[JoeC]

Sorry for calling you dumbass and son no point in it.

[JoeC]

Yeah but i think the lakers can only play up like this for a few games before they wish he was back.

[SpreadSniper]

Sorry for calling you dumbass and son no point in it.

i try to take it with a grain of salt.... you appologizing earned you ONE GOLD STAR on the respect ladder.
no hard feelings

[Dexter]

I am curious as to how much time people spend on figuring out their plays. I noticed alot of people are into researching their plays and using trends, angles, stats etc etc. On a heavy NBA schedule night like 10 or more games i myself spend about 30 minutes into looking for info. I rarely let too much info clog my thinking and try to keep it basic and i have games circled on my calendar months in advance. So tell me guys how much time do you spend.

30 minutes a day on avg.....i circle games on my nba calendar as well.

[AzNDooM]

Crazy IQ, phorographic memory AND types 200 words a minute.

Thanks, but I think there are much more smarter people then me and they are in this FORUM.

[SpreadSniper]

30 minutes a day on avg.....i circle games on my nba calendar as well.

this is something I am about 15 years away from doing, and know it.... I have no freaking clue how some can identify a to watch game, months in advance.... I mean I know rivalries, and games that SHOULD be good games etc, but from a wagering stand point everything is so day-to-day (at least it seems that way) that I am lost when you guys say "i had this one circled on my calendar"

[MR PROFIT]

I am curious as to how much time people spend on figuring out their plays. I noticed alot of people are into researching their plays and using trends, angles, stats etc etc. On a heavy NBA schedule night like 10 or more games i myself spend about 30 minutes into looking for info. I rarely let too much info clog my thinking and try to keep it basic and i have games circled on my calendar months in advance. So tell me guys how much time do you spend.

[bozeman]

The truth? About 5 minutes. I feed the data into my spreadsheet and see what my system plays are. That's it. I don't know any of the players, except Kobe, he was in the news a lot a few years back, and I finally figured out who Lebron James is, but other than that I don't know any of the players (OK, I know who that K-man guy is and Nimsowitz) and I don't want to. It's all a numbers game to me.

But that's not all I do. I then come to this site and see who the top cappers are playing. When their plays agree with my system plays then I have a very strong lean. Also, when all of the top cappers on this site like one side, I have a very strong lean the other way. I'm actually pretty good at "handicapping the handicappers."

That's it. Anything more would be information overload.

I do spend a lot of time looking for subsets of my system that might be out performing, and I also spend a lot of time looking at everything under the sun, which currently include those nebulous line moves.

When I'm playing poker, I'm able to watch a lot of simultaneous games, and that gives me some insight as to how certain teams are performing (or as the case may be--not playing worth a damn) and it's interesting to me that very often half way through the first or second quarter I can tell you exactly how the game is going to end up.

Other than that I don't know squat about sports, and to be perfectly honest I don't think those that do are doing all that much better.

Unbelievable!!! believe me or not, I do exactly the same. , The only problem I face during the last few months, I can't figure out any mathematical solutions for NBA. This is the only math quizz to me, which I don't cap, cause I don't know what to consider. What are your preferences when capping NBA?

[suicidekings]

Ok we can play this game son. Feb 3 Wizards/Knicks . Injuries no Al Harrington for Knicks 2nd highest scorer on team and no caron Butler 2nd Highest scorer on team. If you took the over because your dumbass doesn't look at injuries you lost. Feb 3 SUNs/Nuggets No carmelo Anthony highest scorer on denver. If you took the over you lost. HEy last night all the lines were posted early except for the games with possible injuries that can effect the outcome. BUcks/Nets no line because of Harris, Celtics/Hornets NO line because of paul pierce, Jazz/lakers no line because of kobe and bynum, Clippers/ Warriors no line because of ellis/maggette. I wish the books thought like you when it comes to injuries, it would make me a little more money.

We could throw examples back and forth all day.

My approach primarily focuses on comparing a fair line for the games to the lines given by the books to identify when they have made adjustments based on opinion (either their opinion, or what they perceive as public opinion). Maybe I'll be wrong sometimes, but in the long run, good teams step up to compensate for injured players more often than not. As soon as opinion alters lines, opportunity appears.

GL with your wagers tonight.

[AzNDooM]

Yea, I imagine his IQ is double mine and most here. TGoat is intelligent as well.

I doubt it, but thanks for the compliment. You know, SAS comes through tonight, im going to be the first to say "TOLD ME SO" ... as I think your the only one w/ NFLGURU whos on that fence.

Your either going to CLEAN UP hard tonight or utter FAIL. This will move you into TOP 5 on Wiliam22's thread I believe (will have to check).

[I am Happy]

An hour poking about throughout the day as I'm a sucker for envisioned angles, injuries, storylines. Peak at line movements minutes before tip. Check lakerboy's posted play. Make my play. I am Happy.

[JoeC]

It's funny that you mention stephen curry. I was thinking the same thing when i checked the score around halftime. Even thought for a second that ellis questionable before game time was playing.

[Dexter]

this is something I am about 15 years away from doing, and know it.... I have no freaking clue how some can identify a to watch game, months in advance.... I mean I know rivalries, and games that SHOULD be good games etc, but from a wagering stand point everything is so day-to-day (at least it seems that way) that I am lost when you guys say "i had this one circled on my calendar"

revenge games, end of long road trips, 4th game in 5 nights etc...

[HoulihansTX]

I already know what I'm looking for in a game. I bet situations, and fade inflated lines.

Most of the time I know what I'm going to bet the night B4 the lines come out.

[TGoat]

Im hoping over time, after studying each capper this will help tweak my abilities to cap each games, hence why your units betting is important to me.

Here is another reason I don't put units next to my plays. Let's say I like two games and I grade the first one (1x) and the other one (4x). To my way of thinking that 4x play would have to be four times stronger than the 1x play. Realisticly, that almost never happens.

A more realistic gradation might be something like 1x, 1.2.x, 1.4x, etc.

If you think a team has a 55% of winning a game and give it say, (1x), then how much of a chance should a team have if you rate it (5x)? 275%??? No, it would be more like, oh, 65%. It has a 10% greater likelyhood of winning in your opinion, but you're risking 5 times as much money.

That doesn't make any sense to me.