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jayplay,
Find me a play tomorrow I will go 1XComment -
I obviously doubt that books are watching this thread and will change lines because of it.
I would like to see you continue posting your plays and seeing how well you do, but after a weeks worth I feel like you are getting way ahead of yourself.Comment -
I got a few win from you! Keep rolling...Originally posted by Brp27345Ok everyone... I am about to just get what I have been thinking off the top of my head... Responses to this post would be appreciated... Plain and simple THIS WORKS... and it works at a F'n amazing percentage... with that being said I am not 100% sure on whether or not I want to continue posting the picks on here for just anybody to use... It's not that I don't like helping all of you... because I do... just as a college student with not much money... or for anybody for that matter... a money making system like this just plain DOES NOT come around every day... The reason I am questioning continuing to give out the picks is because first off I don't want this blowing up to proportions where as books start changing their lines... TRUST ME I KNOW THESE ARE ILLUSIONS OF GRANDEUR... but still that is one of my concerns... second of all I don't want someone figuring out what I am doing... with the complexity of the system I don't think it would be easy to do so... but still I don't want it happening... if somehow I have finally stumbled on the thing that could make me rich someday... AGAIN I KNOW THAT IS UNLIKELY... then I don't want it to be stolen form under my nose before I get it off the ground... Just spit-balling here... some comments or opinions on this would be appreciated... and hope you all don't take offense if I do make the decision to back off with posting the games... your comments could very well help me make up my mind however...
Brp27345 . See your posts tomorrow!
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Originally posted by shoebox
i got 2 for you Shoe...
New Orleans over 192.5
Portland over 191.5
both will cover. play both 1x. good luck shoe.Comment -
i actually got a couple unders i like tomorrow, but those arent Jayplay's. we all know the rules! but the 2 listed above are solid over plays.
play them boys!Comment -
If I have time... and come with a 2 star or above... roll with it... 65-75 percentOriginally posted by shoebox
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Originally posted by Brp27345If I have time... and come with a 2 star or above... roll with it... 65-75 percent
sorry bro, I know it's your thread, but theres only one person that can toss out the "JayPlay's".
Shoe was looking for an over bet from me. i guess he asked me to jack your thread for a sec. sorry. won't happen again.Comment -
money back guarantee?Originally posted by jaymac82980
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Thank you every one for your comments... I understand that I may be getting way ahead of myself... I am simply saying... that back tracking EVERY game this season in the NBA... not just 5 days like most of u seem to be thinking... I have found a couple of fairly interesting and very effective trends...
That being said any system that continually gives u winners at a clip above 53% will in the long run make u A LOT of money at -110 juice... and with half time lines I have found... especially at Pinnacle... that on average I get lines right around -105... which means 52% over time will make me a good amount of money if enough money is wagered...
Also... I don't have that much money but with the percentages I am finding... believe me or not but I TRULY believe 60% is the bottom of the barrel here... do any of u understand how much money can be made if I just put flat wagers on a system that hits 60% of the time... WITH NO CHASING... that is unfrickinbelievable... and yet from what I have seen it is true... here are some of the numbers from my spread sheet... now I know the sample sizes are not too large... but trust that they are growing... and even more impressive are steadily growing... meaning that every week in the NBA... the same things seem to happen... which is making me very hopeful that by back tracking even further these trends will have appeared in past years...
Trend A: 36-22 62.07% - 2 Star Play Qualifier
Trend B: 33-22 - 60.00% - B and C are very correlated and therefore qualify as 2 Star Plays: Combined 60-36 Record
Trend C: 27-14 - 65.85%
Trend D: 14-6 - 70.00% - Both D and E are very correlated and these are qualifiers for 3 Star Plays: Combined 26-9 Record
Trend E: 12-3 - 80.00%
The 1 star plays come from other slight trends that I am not completely sold on... just putting this out their to all of u...
Think what u want but hitting 62.5% over a span of 96 games in Trend B + C probably isn't just a fluke...
Either is hitting 74.3% over a span of 25 games in the Trend D+E correlation...
I know the amount of games are still somewhat low... but as I had with the way the data has been compiled... and the consistency it has shown week by week I would be shocked if it does not back track with VERY similar numbers to past seasons as well...
Again thanks for all of the comments...Comment -
Sorry for the misunderstanding... my bad... GL tomorrow... and thanks for being honest with me... a little dash of reality is needed right now... my head is swimming... still though I am VERY confident... and I don't think that will be changing any time soon... won't do anything stupid yet though... need to put just a lil more research in over the next couple weeks...Originally posted by jaymac82980
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Sample size is really too small to jump to any conclusions. You will need to back test 3-5 years, but don't waste your time if you don't want to. GL to your future plays.Comment -
Oh and so everyone knows ahead of time... I will most likely post picks tom night on half time lines unless something changes... I am however going to Vermont tomorrow to visit my gf... and if we end up going out for the night I may not be on here posting plays... also from the 14th to the 18th I am going to meet the rest of her entire family out in Ohio... for the first time... hopefully no Meet the Parents shit happens... but we will see... so obviously I am not certain how much time I will have to allocate to this while I am there either... when I get back from the trip I will be back at school for next semester and will again have time to do this... if I end up making the decision to continue... also by the 18th I will have give an updated record of how the plays are doing... whether I posted them or not... if I didn't post you can chose to believe me or not... but I will not lie about the numbers... and I have no reason to since none of you are paying me or nething neways... that way no matter wat we will see if the system continues to hit over the next week or so... if I do stop posting the picks I will continue to update the record over the course of the year for my own record keeping... even though I am sure if I do make that decision all of u will stop caring about this thread neways...
Thanks - Brp27345
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Back testing is in limbo right now... if anyone knows a site that has NBA 2nd half historical lines... other than donbest which only has this years plays... I would be unbelievably thankful for such a site...Originally posted by ijenpo
Unless someone knows one I am currently talking with someone on SBR who has compiled a database of their own over the last 5 years... and is currently considering sharing such information with me...
Again if anyone has a site with historical 2nd half NBA lines... it would expedite the process and be very appreciated
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vegasinsider... knock yourself out!Originally posted by Brp27345Back testing is in limbo right now... if anyone knows a site that has NBA 2nd half historical lines... other than donbest which only has this years plays... I would be unbelievably thankful for such a site...
Unless someone knows one I am currently talking with someone on SBR who has compiled a database of their own over the last 5 years... and is currently considering sharing such information with me...
Again if anyone has a site with historical 2nd half NBA lines... it would expedite the process and be very appreciated
not bashing.. def nice run.. but sample size is microscopic... gluck tho definatly think theres potential... 2H lines i've always liked but never got around to working on them because im rarely in front of pc long enough to make it worth my while...Comment -
I see the second half lines... but I can't figure out how to go back prior to this years games... if I am missing something let me know... because it looks promising... thanksOriginally posted by egr99
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it used to have several years...looks they took some off...Originally posted by Brp27345I see the second half lines... but I can't figure out how to go back prior to this years games... if I am missing something let me know... because it looks promising... thanks
but example if you manually edit the link it gives you some more...
example: "nba/scoreboard/scores.cfm/game_date/10-7-2008"
you edit the date at the end
If you want help backtesting, I can lend you a hand.
egr99Comment -
anyone know where i can find logs for 2nd half odds? thanks.Comment -
SWEEEEEETTTTTT!!! thanks so much... I will start digging in again!!!Originally posted by egr99Comment -
Brp27345! are you there? I'm ready for 2nd half!!!Comment -
hope hes coming...Comment -
Wizards/Hawks and Knicks/Sixers are both no playsComment -
Have to go to a friend of the gf's house... hoping she lets me hang around to see if I can post a play on the Suns/Pacers if one arises...Comment -
Suns/Pacers no play either... off to the house... if they have internet will put em up... peace... hopefully I get there by half of the Celts game...Comment -
Sorry... was at a party... couldn't put the picks in... will update how tonight would of gone... hopefully it wasn't too good
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Up date from the end of yesterday's games ***
1/8 (5-1) 3 Star Plays (1-0) 2 Star Plays (1-1) 1 Star Plays (3-0) +5.8 Units
1/9 (5-3) 3 Star Plays (0-1) 2 Star Plays (4-2) 1 Star Plays (1-0) +3.3 Units
1/10 (2-1) 3 Star Plays (1-1) 2 Star Plays (1-0) 1 Star Plays (0-0) +1.7 Units
1/11 (4-0) 3 Star Plays (1-0) 2 Star Plays (1-0) 1 Star Plays (2-0) +7.0 Units
1/12 (2-2) 3 Star Plays (1-0) 2 Star Plays (1-1) 1 Star Plays (0-1) +1.7 Units
Record This Season Up to Date...
Season (18-7) 72% 3 Star Plays (4-2) 2 Star Plays (8-4) 1 Star Plays (8-1) +19.5 UnitsComment -
Yo, I just lost the Gs 1st half bet.. I look to even up on the second half.. so I hope your system has something for this!Comment -
*2 Star Play*
NBA - Pinnacle
Warriors 2nd Half -3 (-108)Comment -
My book has it at -3.5 but I took it anyways! Let's get this!Comment -
ok following it . gl
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Record for tonight thus far would of been...
1/13 (3-0) 3 Star Plays (0-0) 2 Star Plays (3-1) 1 Star Plays (0-0) +3.8 Units
Nets -4 *2 Star Play* Winner
Clippers +4 *2 Star Play* Loser
Thunder -6 *2 Star Play* Winner
T-Wolves +2.5 *2 Star Play* Winner
Bucks -2.5 * 3 Star Play* Pending
Believe it or not... but those were tonight's results up to date... Bucks currently covering by 0.5 a point... so no lie there for sure if it helps add credibility.... watever... this is for me to keep track...
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****. GS isn't looking too good in the second half.Comment -
Nope not at all... give it some time... hope the Bucks don't hit... cuz having a 4-2 night when I release one of the losers is no fun at all...Comment -
Shit... didn't know I was betting on San Fransisco... thought I had Golden State.. lolComment -
Record for tonight thus far would of been...
1/13 (4-1) 3 Star Plays (1-0) 2 Star Plays (3-1) 1 Star Plays (0-0) +6.8 Units
Nets -4 *2 Star Play* Winner
Clippers +4 *2 Star Play* Loser
Thunder -6 *2 Star Play* Winner
T-Wolves +2.5 *2 Star Play* Winner
Bucks -2.5 * 3 Star Play* Winner
Sorry I wasn't on boys... I feel bad now... only bet I got in tonight was on the Warriors as well... goin down with u if it makes u feel any better... I still think they have a run in 'em though... haven't given up all hope quite yet...
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